USC 2008... Overrated

This week's ZN Top 25 has drawn some criticism from readers, particularly where I ranked USC, No. 8 behind No. 5 Penn State and No. 7 Ohio State. I'll try to explain, as best I can, why USC it ranked too high in the polls this year.

Let's begin with facts, shall we?

Team(Record)	Rank(BCS)	Opp.Record	Opp.Win%	Rank(1/119)
USC(10-1)	No. 5	62-63	0.492	No. 71
PSU(11-1)	No. 8	57-57	0.500	No. 68
OSU(10-2)	No. 10	66-45	0.594	No. 11
Iowa(8-4)	NR	57-54	0.513	No. 53
OrSU(8-4)	NR	69-53	0.565	No. 19

Ok, now that you've taken a good look at where the three teams are, think about it. What's one thing you've heard from every talking head: "Yeah, but who have they played?" For once, I agree with the main stream media's argument, that strength of schedule is very important towards ranking teams this late in the season. It's not like the preseason polls, or even when the BCS first come out in October. No, this is the final week of the college football season, and we know which teams are good, bad and fake. USC is one of those "fake" teams.

Outside of the pure SOS for each team (which USC is last of the five teams, at No. 71), let's look at a few other reasons why USC is currently ranked higher in the polls that it deserves.

USC beat a Beanie-less Ohio State, in the afternoon in Los Angeles on the second weekend of the season. Penn State beat a Beanie-ful Ohio State, at night in Columbus, almost two months into the season. Penn State had the better win.

Penn State lost 24-23 at Iowa, in very inclement weather. USC lost 27-21 at Oregon State, but the Trojans were down 21-0 to the Beavers at halftime, and never once led during the game. USC had the worse loss.

Comparing common opponents is relatively easy. However, you get bogged down in comparing which common opponents those common opponents played. Yeah, head spinning yet? But there's an easier way to compare how strong teams' schedules are. Let's take all of the teams on Penn State's, Ohio State's, and USC's schedule this year.

Penn State: Coastal Carolina (FCS-49), Oregon St., Syracuse, Temple, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State. Average SOS: 31

Ohio State: Youngstown St (FCS-27), Ohio, USC, Troy, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan St, Penn St, Northwestern, Illinois, MIchigan. Average SOS: 55

USC: Virginia, Ohio St, Oregon St, Oregon, Arizona St, Washington St, Arizona, Washington, California, Stanford, Notre Dame, UCLA. Average SOS: 57

Also to note, the two FCS teams played numerically-tougher and weaker schedules (in terms of opponent records) than the average. So even if you were to eliminate that number from the average, it would only raise Penn State's and lower Ohio State's opponents' average SOS. That would only widen the gap between Penn State, and Ohio State and USC.

So, looking at it from that way, one could say Penn State's opponents had overall tougher schedules, which mean they're most likely better than their records indicate. USC and Ohio State's opponents played about the same level of competition. If anything, Penn State should be above USC, while Ohio State should be a hair above USC.

That's why I ranked Penn State No. 5, Ohio State No. 7, and USC No. 8 in this week's ZN Top 25.