Preview: Indiana at No. 18 Penn State

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Nov. 14, 12 p.m. ET/Big Ten Network (Craig Coshun, Glen Mason and Anthony Herron)
Weather Forecast: Cool, drizzle early.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 12-0.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 8-2 (4-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost to Ohio State, 24-7
Injuries: LG Johnnie Troutman (leg) - doubtful; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 391-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 171.4 rush/234.9 pass/28.3 points per game
Defense - 98.5 rush/166.1 pass/10.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+4)/(0.40) per game

Penn State, on paper -- In a game more hyped than September's clash against Iowa, Penn State fell flat on its face against Ohio State, and the entire nation was watching... again. The Nittany Lions had not one, but two chances to hush its critics. Many of the main stream media personalities had been dogging Penn State for the entire off-season and into the regular season, for what was perceived to be a weak schedule that didn't provide enough challenges for the Lions. Well, regardless of whether or not Penn State's schedule is in fact weaker than the average, perception is reality, especially in college football. And the Nittany Lions' 2009 campaign will be perceived as a disappointment by many observers. But if this season is a disappointment, then I can't imagine what would be considered a success. Daryll Clark is still on pace to smash the Penn State single-season passing record; the defense is having its best season statistically in more than a decade; Penn State could finish consecutive seasons with ten or more wins for the first time since 1993-94. It wasn't all that long ago that a "down" year equaled only four or five wins.

The Nittany Lions are still a young team, something many critics have curiously forgotten when launching countless volleys of "overrated!" The secondary, wide receivers and offensive line enter the season as easily the weakest units. Every starting receiver and defensive back from a year ago, plus three all-Big Ten offensive linemen and two All-America defensive ends departed. Taking those kinds of losses will usually crush any program outside of USC or Ohio State, but Penn State has filled the holes enough to have locked up eight wins before November. The offense has put up points against the teams its supposed to, while the defense has shut down nearly every team on the schedule. The only hiccups -- Iowa and Ohio State -- were due more to the ineffectiveness of the young offensive line than anything else, which in turn allowed the opposition short fields. Then, of course, there is the ongoing comedy of errors that is Penn State's special teams play. The Nittany Lions are at or near the bottom of every statistical special teams category. Penn State hasn't been able to find a suitable replacement for star return specialist Derrick Williams, and has averaged merely 5.2 yards per return. Last week against Ohio State, the Lions' punt coverage team allowed two long returns, which both set up Buckeye touchdowns in the 24-7 loss. Penn State has been able to overcome its inability to win the field positions battles against lesser teams, but it has absolutely killed the Lions against the upper-echelon of the Big Ten.

Visitor: Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 4-6 (1-5, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost to Wisconsin, 31-28
Injuries: S Austin Thomas (shoulder) - possible; CB Ray Fisher (knee) - doubtful; RB Darius Willis (leg) - possible; S Jarrell Drane (leg) - possible; CB Chris Adkins (arm) - possible; S Jerimy Finch (hamstring) - possible; DE Darius Johnson (shoulder) - possible
Key Players: (offense) QB Ben Chappell, WR Tandon Doss, RB Darius Willis; (defense) DE Greg Middleton, DE Jamie Kirlew, LB Matt Mayberry
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 3rd season, 14-21; 0-1 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 116.1 rush/241.1 pass/24.1 points per game
Defense - 160.4 rush/250.4 pass/28.5 points per game
TO Margin - (+8)/(0.80) per game

Indiana, on paper -- The Hoosiers broke through the bowl threshold two seasons ago, landing a bid in the 2008 Insight Bowl. Last season wasn't so hot for the Crimson and Cream, struggling through injuries and inconsistencies from key players, and limping to a 3-9 record. Prior to this season, play-making quarterback Kellen Lewis was dismissed from the team, leaving a big void at the position. But with strong lines and just enough talent surrounding Ben Chappell, Indiana opened 2009 with three straight wins. They weren't the most dominant or comfortable victories, but if Indiana could land a few breaks, a bowl wasn't out of the question for this team. Seven weeks later, though, things aren't so rosy for Indiana. The Hoosiers fell victim to a few terrible officiating calls against Michigan and Iowa, a massive rally by Northwestern, and just couldn't hang with Wisconsin last week in a three-point loss. Staring down the double-barrel of Penn State and Purdue, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Indiana to play a 13th game.

Indiana's problem this season isn't all that different from seasons past, as the defense has failed to stop any team with a pulse. The Hoosiers are being out-gained by 53.6 yards and 4.4 points per game this season. Star defensive ends Jamie Kirlew and Greg Middleton haven't produced the kind of pressure many were hoping for to offset any deficiencies in the defensive back seven. As a result, opponents have gashed the Indiana defense for a league-worst 137.2 average quarterback rating and 231 first downs. The defense has been good inside the red zone, allowing a 76.3 scoring percentage. However, opponents have been allowed to get into the red zone way too much in the first place, as the Hoosiers have allowed 38 trips -- tenth-worst in the Big Ten. But the offense has held its own in enough games to give Indiana a chance. In losses to Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Hoosiers were able to put up 28 points per game. Chappell is the Big Ten's second-leading passer, while Tandon Doss is third in receptions per game and receiving yards per game, and also leads the conference in all-purpose yards per game. Indiana can also boast the league's best kickoff return specialist, Ray Fisher. However, Fisher could miss this week due to injury.

On the field -- In the previous 12 meetings between the two teams, Indiana has fielded enough decent squads against Penn State to pull off an upset. But it's never happened. Even in what should have been the Hoosiers' best chance to finally take down the Nittany Lions -- a 22-18 loss in 2004 -- Indiana couldn't lock up with win with a first-and-goal at the Penn State one-yard line. The Lions held on four downs, and virtually ended then-head coach Jerry DiNardo's tenure with Indiana. Will this week's game come down to such a dramatic climax? Don't bet on it. The best chance for the Hoosiers to even scare Penn State will be to get some dynamite play from the defensive ends, while praying against any major breakdowns in the defensive backfield. Clark was harassed all afternoon against Ohio State, wreaking havoc on the entire Penn State offense. But Indiana's front four, as good as they are, aren't comparable to the Buckeyes'.

As up and down as the Nittany Lions have been this season, they're more consistent than we might assume. Against any team that isn't fighting for a Big Ten title, Penn State has taken care of business with ease. However, when facing the two teams that are going to duke it out this week for the Rose Bowl, Penn State proved itself to be what it is, a very good but not great football team. Indiana might have its moments in this game, sort of like it did last season, as it headed into the locker room trailing only 10-7. But I really can't envision the Hoosiers upsetting Penn State on Senior Day. The Nittany Lions haven't blown a home finale since 1999, and that was against a Michigan team headed to the Orange Bowl.

Attendance prediction: 107,312

Prediction: No. 18 Penn State, 35 - Indiana, 7