Happy New Year everyone! Welcome to your Penn State football Bowl gameday headquarters. 
Pregame
• Capital One Bowl Game Preview: PSU vs LSU
• Penn State depth chart (as of 12/31)
• Official Game Notes
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Pre-Bowl Press Conference
• Big Ten Pick'em: Bowl Special
Postgame
• Game Recap: TBA
Kickoff/TV: Friday, January 1, 2010; 1 p.m. ET/ABC (Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge and Erin Andrews)
Weather Forecast: Scattered showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 1-0.
Host: Louisiana State Tigers
Record: 9-3 (5-3, SEC)
Last Game: Beat Arkansas, 33-30(OT)
Injuries: RB Charles Scott (clavicle) - out for season; RB Keiland Williams (ankle) - out for season; RB Richard Murphy (knee) - out for season; WR RJ Jackson (foot) - out; DT Akiem Hicks (undisclosed) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Trindon Holliday, WR Brandon LaFell; (defense) LB Kelvin Sheppard, CB Patrick Peterson, DT Drake Nevis
Head Coach: Les Miles, 5th season at LSU, 51-14; 9th season overall, 79-35; 5-2 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 129.6 rush/180.1 pass/25.5 points per game
Defense - 134.2 rush/192.4 pass/16.0 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)/(0.58) per game
Louisiana State, on paper -- For a team that has been out gained by 16 yards per game this season, the Tigers are quite fortunate to have reached nine wins. Louisiana State has lived off of its fantastic turnover margin (+7), and ability to start offensive drives with short fields, courtesy of probably the best return game in the nation (18.6 yds per punt return). That stat will be sure to strike fear into Penn State, particularly since speedster Trindon Holliday isn't the only one responsible for LSU's punt return success; Holliday averages 17.7 yards on 18 returns and one touchdown, while Chad Jones also added a score to his 21.5 yards per return on six attempts. But that's about as explosive as this LSU team has been in 2009.
Defensively, the Tigers have been stout, but not nearly as transmittable as in recent seasons. In the five seasons previous to 2009, LSU ranked 17th, 12th, 14th, 6th, and 7th in rush defense; the Tigers rank 44th coming into this game. LSU has given up more than 23 points on five different occasions this year, including 26 to Mississippi State and 30 in overtime to Arkansas in the season finale. The Tigers have plenty of talent on this side of the ball, but are definitely pregnable.
Going from decent to just plain mediocre, the LSU offense struggled in 2009 to just break 300 yards per game. Injuries were a huge factor in the lack of production, as the Tigers lost their top two running backs before the end of the season. With a lack of a run game, and an already shaky offensive line (Jordan Jefferson has been sacked 24 times), opposing defenses have been able to tee off on the Tigers' passing game.
Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Michigan State, 42-14
Injuries: RB Brandon Beachum (ACL) - out for season; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (n/a) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 393-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 173.6 rush/238.9 pass/29.7 points per game
Defense - 93.9 rush/183.2 pass/11.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)/(0.25) per game
Penn State, on paper -- The Lions are a good team, but most definitely not a great one. Penn State beat the teams it should have. In another fantastic job done by defensive coordinator Tom Bradley, the defense has posted its best statistical season in years, even with the loss of three defensive ends (one All-American) and four senior starters in the secondary from last season. The linebackers have been banged up this year, as Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman didn't play a full game together until mid-way through the season. Had both been healthy all year, one or both would have been given All-America recognition. Even in losses to Iowa and Ohio State, the Penn State defense held its own, even in the face of short fields and a sometimes anemic Lions offense.
On that offensive side of the ball, Penn State had some fantastic games this season (Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State), but also some putrid outings (Iowa, Ohio State). Against good defensive fronts, the Nittany Lions had trouble containing opponents' pass and run blitzes. That left Daryll Clark with little time to throw, and Evan Royster even less room to run. Much of the offensive woes have been centered around the constantly changing offensive line, which saw three different players at right tackle, and two different at left guard over the course of 2009. Yet, some bright spots have emerged for Penn State, specifically in the wide receivers and tight ends. Derek Moye has become a go-to guy on the outside, while Andrew Quarless finally played like the tight end everyone was hoping for the previous three seasons. Penn State will be looking to give Clark more than two seconds to throw.
Of course, none of that matters if the special teams break down, as they did in dramatic fashion against Iowa and Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were able to score on a blocked punt, and kept Penn State pinned deep in its own territory all game long, leading to a momentum-swinging safety. The Buckeyes tore apart Penn State's coverage teams, virtually winning the game solely on field position. The Nittany Lions should not be relied upon to win any game this season on field position.
On the field -- Penn State and LSU match up very well on both sides of the ball, with the slight edge to Penn State's defense over the Tigers' offense. I could totally see the Lions' front seven harass Jefferson into several mistakes, while Clark and the PSU offense should be able to move the ball well enough to score some points in this one. But if there's one glaring weakness in this year's Penn State team, it's the special teams and return coverage. How does a team like LSU win nine games while being out gained by 16 yards per game? Field position. That matchup scares the crap out of me. However...
The turf could be even scarier for both teams. Bad weather, combined with several football games in the Citrus Bowl this week alone, has left the field in horrid, if not dangerous condition. For a team like LSU, which relies solely on a speed player like Holliday, a chippy field could spell doom. One slip could ruin what should have been a big punt return, which could ruin LSU's chances for victory. Penn State doesn't rely on one specific facet of the game to win. With a healthy stable of running backs, and a defense that might be better than the Tigers' unit, the Lions should have enough in the tank to sneak out of Orlando with a much-needed Big Ten win over the SEC.
Prediction: No. 13 Penn State, 24 - No. 12 LSU, 20
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: No. 14 Penn State at Michigan State
• ABC/ESPN Coverage Map
• Penn State depth chart (as of 11/20)
• Official Game Notes
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 12 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 12 2009
• Poll Results: Penn State at Michigan State
Postgame
• Game Story:
• Game Review:
• Live Blog
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Nov. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET/ESPN (Mike Patrick, Craig James and Heather Cox)
Weather Forecast: Cool, clear.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 13-12-1.
Host: Michigan State Spartans
Record: 6-5 (4-3, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Purdue, 40-37
Injuries: LB Drew Stevens (knee) - possible; RB Glenn Winston (knee) - out for season; S Roderick Jenrette (foot) - out for season
Key Players: (offense) QB Kevin Cousins, WR Blair White, WR BJ Cunningham; (defense) LB Greg Jones, S Chris Rucker, DL Jerel Worthy
Head Coach: Mark D'Antonio, 3rd season, 22-15; 0-2 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 139.7 rush/274.1 pass/31.0 points per game
Defense - 105.9 rush/245.0 pass/23.5 points per game
TO Margin - (-4)/(-0.36) per game
Michigan State, on paper -- The Spartans are a funky team this season, losing a ton of very, very close games, but winning a few more that were made more difficult than necessary. Michigan State was coming off its first New Year's Day bowl game in 10 years, and had enough talent returning or rising to figure on another successful campaign. That, however, would depend on if the team could do one thing: win some games it wasn't supposed to. Well, that never happened, and the Spartans now sit at 6-5, clinging to bowl eligibility. It's not like Michigan State has been a bad team this season. Far, far from it. In three losses to Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Iowa, the total margin of victory was seven, SEVEN, points, and Michigan State even had control of each one of those games heading into the final few minutes. Wisconsin turned out to be much better than anyone had projected, but Michigan State still put up 30 on the Badgers in Camp Randall. Really, the only inexplicable loss for the Spartans came in a weird, wild upset at Minnesota. The only other close game was last week against a better-than-you-think Purdue team, but the Spartans prevailed by three.
Michigan State tried to use the two-quarterback system early this season, surprisingly enough, to decent success. But this is now Kirk Cousins' offense, even if Keith Nicol still comes in for a few series here or there. The Spartans are 0.3 points per game away from leading the conference in scoring offense; they lead the Big Ten in total offense, pass offense, pass efficiency, and kickoff return average. Wonder how Michigan State has been able to stay in every game this season? There's your answer. The Spartans can turn it on offensively against any team, even if sometimes it comes a bit too late. And you can chalk much of that up to the defense, which can't seem to figure out how to make a big stop to save its team's life. The Spartans are allowing a not-terrible 23 points per game, but Michigan State is dead last in red-zone defense, and near the bottom in third-down conversions allowed. Probably more frustrating, and similarly to some of Penn State's issues, Michigan State has been fantastic at creating negative-yardage situations for its opponents (2nd in the Big Ten in sacks), but has forced a league-worst 12 turnovers. Big, game-changing plays on defense have been few and far between for Michigan State, in a season where just one or two might have made a huge difference.
Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-2 (5-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Indiana, 31-20
Injuries: CB AJ Wallace (shoulder) - possible; WR Chaz Powell (shoulder) - possible; RB Brandon Beachum (ACL) - out for season; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 392-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 172.3 rush/231.2 pass/28.5 points per game
Defense - 93.9 rush/178.1 pass/11.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)/(0.09) per game
Penn State, on paper -- Entering the final week of the season, 9-2 feels much worse than it actually is for the Penn State faithful. The Nittany Lions have had only two opportunities this season to beat premier teams, with both games coming in Beaver Stadium. But Penn State failed miserably in both tests, both on national television. No other final score has even come close to a Penn State loss, which might make the season feel even worse, knowing this team has the ability to play well. That ability just hasn't shown up in big games. The average margin of victory for Penn State this season has been 16.9. However, against all teams not named Iowa or Ohio State, that margin jumps to 23.8 per win. Penn State hasn't reached 10 wins in consecutive seasons since 1994. The Nittany Lions could very easily reach that plateau in 2009, as almost everyone pegged this team for 10 wins just as long as it got off the bus each Saturday. But with suspect special teams and a propensity for turning the ball over at key moments in big games, that goal isn't so certain with two games left against good teams.
In 2008, Penn State averaged 24.5 yards per kick return, 10.4 yards per punt return, while Derrick Williams scored two touchdowns on kick returns and another on a punt return. On punt coverage, Penn State allowed 5.3 yards per return. The Nittany Lions also did not allow a blocked punt in 2008. Now fast forward to 2009. With 11 games in the books, Penn State is averaging 18.4 yards per kick return, 5.3 yards per punt return, while scoring not a single return touchdown. This year on punt coverage, Penn State is allowing a ghastly 16.4 yards per return. Also, the punt team has allowed two blocked punts this season, including the game-changing scoop-and-score by Iowa. Against Ohio State two weeks ago, Penn State allowed punt returns of 43, 19 and 45 yards. With an offense that doesn't trust its offensive line any more, a quarterback that pushes in big games leading to mistakes, and special teams that have become the biggest single liability this season, Penn State could have a much tougher time reaching those 10 wins that were thought to be so easily attainable.
On the field -- East Lansing hasn't been kind to Penn State. The last outing westward, the Nittany Lions were eying a January bowl game, and holding a comfortable 24-7 third-quarter lead, everything was hunky-dory. That is, until everyone realized that John L. Smith was no longer Michigan State's head coach. Mark D'Antonio would have none of what Penn State was serving, and called for one aggressive play after another. Penn State lost 35-31, due to exactly what this year's game could hinge on: pass defense and special teams. In that game two years ago, the Spartans faked a punt in their own territory to gain a huge first down (and momentum), and bombed away to take the lead, forcing a stunned Penn State offense to wake up form its nap. This season, Penn State can't fall asleep, or it'll be a rerun of 2007.
In case you haven't noticed, special teams special team will be a pretty big deal in this game. So, I'm going to call for this game to come down to exactly that: each team's ability to play mistake-free special teams. But that comes in two ways. Penn State should take it literally. The Nittany Lions must hold Michigan State's return teams in check, while not turning the ball over or getting stuck in terrible field position. The Spartans, however, have to take advantage of Penn State's special teams woes, by exploiting the Lions' poor return games and propensity to turn the ball over. It's not a complex formula for either team. And both could end up playing well on special teams. But there will be at least one play that will make or break both teams, depending on which one steps up to seize the moment. In this kind of situation, I just don't trust Penn State.
Extra Points: The two teams play for what's probably the worst trophy in college football: The Land Grant Trophy... Penn State started out going 1-8-1 against Michigan State, but since joining the Big Ten, has gone 12-4... all four Big Ten losses to MSU have come in East Lansing... Average score between the two teams in Big Ten meetings: 35-27... Attendance prediction: 75,235
Prediction: No. 14 Penn State, 21 - Michigan State, 24
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: Indiana at No. 18 Penn State
• Penn State depth chart (as of 11/13)
• Official Game Notes
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Interview with Crimson Quarry
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 11 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 11 2009
Postgame
• Game Story: Penn State rides upperclassmen to senior day win
• Bowman earns Defensive Player of the Week
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Nov. 14, 12 p.m. ET/Big Ten Network (Craig Coshun, Glen Mason and Anthony Herron)
Weather Forecast: Cool, drizzle early.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 12-0.
Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 8-2 (4-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost to Ohio State, 24-7
Injuries: LG Johnnie Troutman (leg) - doubtful; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 391-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 171.4 rush/234.9 pass/28.3 points per game
Defense - 98.5 rush/166.1 pass/10.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+4)/(0.40) per game
Penn State, on paper -- In a game more hyped than September's clash against Iowa, Penn State fell flat on its face against Ohio State, and the entire nation was watching... again. The Nittany Lions had not one, but two chances to hush its critics. Many of the main stream media personalities had been dogging Penn State for the entire off-season and into the regular season, for what was perceived to be a weak schedule that didn't provide enough challenges for the Lions. Well, regardless of whether or not Penn State's schedule is in fact weaker than the average, perception is reality, especially in college football. And the Nittany Lions' 2009 campaign will be perceived as a disappointment by many observers. But if this season is a disappointment, then I can't imagine what would be considered a success. Daryll Clark is still on pace to smash the Penn State single-season passing record; the defense is having its best season statistically in more than a decade; Penn State could finish consecutive seasons with ten or more wins for the first time since 1993-94. It wasn't all that long ago that a "down" year equaled only four or five wins.
The Nittany Lions are still a young team, something many critics have curiously forgotten when launching countless volleys of "overrated!" The secondary, wide receivers and offensive line enter the season as easily the weakest units. Every starting receiver and defensive back from a year ago, plus three all-Big Ten offensive linemen and two All-America defensive ends departed. Taking those kinds of losses will usually crush any program outside of USC or Ohio State, but Penn State has filled the holes enough to have locked up eight wins before November. The offense has put up points against the teams its supposed to, while the defense has shut down nearly every team on the schedule. The only hiccups -- Iowa and Ohio State -- were due more to the ineffectiveness of the young offensive line than anything else, which in turn allowed the opposition short fields. Then, of course, there is the ongoing comedy of errors that is Penn State's special teams play. The Nittany Lions are at or near the bottom of every statistical special teams category. Penn State hasn't been able to find a suitable replacement for star return specialist Derrick Williams, and has averaged merely 5.2 yards per return. Last week against Ohio State, the Lions' punt coverage team allowed two long returns, which both set up Buckeye touchdowns in the 24-7 loss. Penn State has been able to overcome its inability to win the field positions battles against lesser teams, but it has absolutely killed the Lions against the upper-echelon of the Big Ten.
Visitor: Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 4-6 (1-5, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost to Wisconsin, 31-28
Injuries: S Austin Thomas (shoulder) - possible; CB Ray Fisher (knee) - doubtful; RB Darius Willis (leg) - possible; S Jarrell Drane (leg) - possible; CB Chris Adkins (arm) - possible; S Jerimy Finch (hamstring) - possible; DE Darius Johnson (shoulder) - possible
Key Players: (offense) QB Ben Chappell, WR Tandon Doss, RB Darius Willis; (defense) DE Greg Middleton, DE Jamie Kirlew, LB Matt Mayberry
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 3rd season, 14-21; 0-1 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 116.1 rush/241.1 pass/24.1 points per game
Defense - 160.4 rush/250.4 pass/28.5 points per game
TO Margin - (+8)/(0.80) per game
Indiana, on paper -- The Hoosiers broke through the bowl threshold two seasons ago, landing a bid in the 2008 Insight Bowl. Last season wasn't so hot for the Crimson and Cream, struggling through injuries and inconsistencies from key players, and limping to a 3-9 record. Prior to this season, play-making quarterback Kellen Lewis was dismissed from the team, leaving a big void at the position. But with strong lines and just enough talent surrounding Ben Chappell, Indiana opened 2009 with three straight wins. They weren't the most dominant or comfortable victories, but if Indiana could land a few breaks, a bowl wasn't out of the question for this team. Seven weeks later, though, things aren't so rosy for Indiana. The Hoosiers fell victim to a few terrible officiating calls against Michigan and Iowa, a massive rally by Northwestern, and just couldn't hang with Wisconsin last week in a three-point loss. Staring down the double-barrel of Penn State and Purdue, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Indiana to play a 13th game.
Indiana's problem this season isn't all that different from seasons past, as the defense has failed to stop any team with a pulse. The Hoosiers are being out-gained by 53.6 yards and 4.4 points per game this season. Star defensive ends Jamie Kirlew and Greg Middleton haven't produced the kind of pressure many were hoping for to offset any deficiencies in the defensive back seven. As a result, opponents have gashed the Indiana defense for a league-worst 137.2 average quarterback rating and 231 first downs. The defense has been good inside the red zone, allowing a 76.3 scoring percentage. However, opponents have been allowed to get into the red zone way too much in the first place, as the Hoosiers have allowed 38 trips -- tenth-worst in the Big Ten. But the offense has held its own in enough games to give Indiana a chance. In losses to Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Hoosiers were able to put up 28 points per game. Chappell is the Big Ten's second-leading passer, while Tandon Doss is third in receptions per game and receiving yards per game, and also leads the conference in all-purpose yards per game. Indiana can also boast the league's best kickoff return specialist, Ray Fisher. However, Fisher could miss this week due to injury.
On the field -- In the previous 12 meetings between the two teams, Indiana has fielded enough decent squads against Penn State to pull off an upset. But it's never happened. Even in what should have been the Hoosiers' best chance to finally take down the Nittany Lions -- a 22-18 loss in 2004 -- Indiana couldn't lock up with win with a first-and-goal at the Penn State one-yard line. The Lions held on four downs, and virtually ended then-head coach Jerry DiNardo's tenure with Indiana. Will this week's game come down to such a dramatic climax? Don't bet on it. The best chance for the Hoosiers to even scare Penn State will be to get some dynamite play from the defensive ends, while praying against any major breakdowns in the defensive backfield. Clark was harassed all afternoon against Ohio State, wreaking havoc on the entire Penn State offense. But Indiana's front four, as good as they are, aren't comparable to the Buckeyes'.
As up and down as the Nittany Lions have been this season, they're more consistent than we might assume. Against any team that isn't fighting for a Big Ten title, Penn State has taken care of business with ease. However, when facing the two teams that are going to duke it out this week for the Rose Bowl, Penn State proved itself to be what it is, a very good but not great football team. Indiana might have its moments in this game, sort of like it did last season, as it headed into the locker room trailing only 10-7. But I really can't envision the Hoosiers upsetting Penn State on Senior Day. The Nittany Lions haven't blown a home finale since 1999, and that was against a Michigan team headed to the Orange Bowl.
Attendance prediction: 107,312
Prediction: No. 18 Penn State, 35 - Indiana, 7
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State
• Penn State depth chart (as of 11/6)
• Official Game Notes
• Coverage Maps
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Interview with The Buckeye Battle Cry
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 9 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 10 2009
• Poll Results: Penn State vs Ohio State
Postgame
• Game Story: Buckeyes whack Penn State, 24-7
• Live Blog:
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Nov. 7, 3:30 p.m. ET/ABC and ESPN2 (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Holly Rowe)
Weather Forecast: Cool, clear.
Series Record: Tied, 12-12.
Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 8-1 (4-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Northwestern, 34-13
Injuries: RB Stephfon Green (ankle) - probable; TB Brent Carter (knee) - probable; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - probable; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 391-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 182.0 rush/247.1 pass/30.7 points per game
Defense - 84.1 rush/170.7 pass/9.3 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)/(+0.55) per game
Penn State, on paper -- With nine games in the books, this year could be described as a tale of two seasons for Penn State: pre-Iowa and post-Iowa. Not a single member of the Penn State community was comfortable with the Nittany Lions' September campaign, after not-so-impressive wins over mediocre teams, and an embarrassment on national TV at the hands of the Hawkeyes. Then something happened. Chalk it up to some average competition, or that Iowa might just be a better team than anyone had predicted. But Penn State started winning, impressively. The Nittany Lions blew away Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan. The turnovers that had plagued Penn State earlier in the season had now vanished. The offensive line was actually opening running lanes. Daryll Clark was razor-sharp passing the ball. And the defense still hadn't let up, even in the face of better offenses. Penn State would end up on the ropes for nearly two quarters at Northwestern, going into the locker rooms trailing at halftime for the first time this season. But the Nittany Lions, helped partly by an injured Wildcats quarterback, came through with a big win on the road. Most importantly, it was a comeback win.
Much of the Nittany Lions' success can be attributed to two things, one being QB Daryll Clark, the other the defense. Clark is by far the most efficient quarterback in the conference at this stage of the season, tossing nine touchdowns to only one pick the last five games. His decision making is second to none, and only gets better each week. Many had called for him to regress this season, due to a rebuilt offensive line and brand new receivers all around. But Clark has managed to do something only great quarterbacks can, make the players around him better. The wide receivers are on track to help Clark smash the Penn State single-season passing record, while the offensive line has given up three sacks the last five games, with only 10 sacks the entire year. Topping it all off, such a potent pass attack has forced defenses to refrain from stacking the box against Evan Royster and the rushing attack.
There's not much to say about the Penn State defense, except that it's now leading the nation in scoring defense, while leading the Big Ten in every single major defensive category. But the scary thing for Penn State's final four opponents? Linebackers Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee are both 100 percent, with Lee leading the team in tackles last week in his first start back from injury.
Visitor: Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 7-2 (4-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat New Mexico St, 45-0
Injuries: K Aaron Pettrey (knee) - out; LB Andrew Sweat (knee) - out; QB Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) - probable; RB Jaamal Berry (hamstring) - possible; OL Mike Adams (knee) - out; DB Aaron Gant (N/A) - out; RB Marcus Williams (knee) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Terrelle Pryor, WR DeVier Posey, WR Dane Sanzenbacher; (defense) LB Ross Homan, DL Thaddeus Gibson, DB Curt Coleman
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 9th season, 90-21; 4-5 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 186.6 rush/189.6 pass/31.0 points per game
Defense - 86.4 rush/173.6 pass/11.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)/(+0.12) per game
Ohio State, on paper -- The Buckeyes have been anything but consistent for any stretch this season, avoiding an upset at the hands of Navy--a team that just lost to Temple--losing a close contest in Ohio Stadium to USC--a team that lost to Washington and was just blown away by Oregon--followed by two shutout wins and two more blowout wins. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, after what was supposed to be a breakthrough spring practice, didn't look nearly as sharp has many in Buckeyeland had hoped to see. In the three-week span covering wins over Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin, Pryor completed just 30 of 54 passes for 335 total yards. Then there was the Purdue debacle. Ohio State went into West Lafayette feeling good, but left feeling sick, as the Boilermakers emerged with a 26-18 victory. Since then, it's been more of the same mind-boggling inconsistency, as the Buckeyes have outscored its last two opponents 83-7, but have had to do it with turnovers and trick plays.
Pryor is by far not the only culprit in Ohio State's lack of consistency through the first nine games. Long the stalwart force for the Buckeyes, the defense could not stop USC on its game-winning drive, or the Purdue offense. This unit was faced with replacing linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, and corner Malcolm Jenkins. No easy task by any means, but it's not a young or inexperienced group in any sense. The defensive line trio of Cameron Heyward, Doug Worthington and Thaddeus Gibson have more than 70 starts under their belts, while veterans like Chimdi Chekwa, Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell were all starters in 2008. Surprisingly enough, the one unit that has underperformed has been the linebackers. With the loss of last year's stars, the Buckeye 'backers haven't been able to reload with the same speed as we saw in 2006.
How can anyone analyze Ohio State without looking into its special teams situation? Well, it's not looking nearly as good as needed for "Tressel-ball" to be successful. The Buckeyes' two punters are combining for only 38 yards per punt, while on the flip side, the punt return average is a terrible 6.1 yards. The kickoff return unit hasn't been bad, but its 24.8 yards per return average is padded by Ray Small's 96-yard touchdown against Wisconsin. But the biggest hit to this unit came just last week, when kicker Aaron Pettrey was knocked out for the rest of the season with a leg injury.
On the field -- Ohio State rakes in five-star recruits better than any team that doesn't play in Gainesville or Los Angeles. But talent doesn't always guarantee a win each week. Heading into Beaver Stadium, against an extra hostile crowd due to Pryor's triumphant return to his home state, facing a Penn State squad that's playing better, cleaner football than any team in the Big Ten, I just can't see this going the Buckeyes' way. Penn State has been able to fix its problems much faster than Ohio State, particularly along the offensive line and filling the defensive holes left from last season's departures.
Despite falling behind the Buckeyes and Michigan in scoring offense, Penn State still leads the conference in total offense, is third in passing, and fourth in rushing. Ohio State, meanwhile, is the second-worst pass offense in the conference, while only sixth in rushing. This would support the assertion that Ohio State gains most of its offensive points this season through short fields, non-offensive touchdowns, and running up the score on weak opponents. There might not be any cheap or easy points in this game, but one or two turnovers could end up making the difference in which team comes out alive. I'll take the team with the senior quarterback and the top scoring defense in college football.
Extra points -- Did I mention that I correctly predicted the EXACT score of last week's win over Northwestern? Well, I did... Ohio State will be held to its lowest scoring output of the season... Terrelle Pryor will throw two interceptions, but not fumble the ball... Ohio State won't reach 300 total yards... Penn State will not turn the ball over for the fourth-straight week, but will fall on its own fumble once or twice... Penn State hasn't won consecutive games against Ohio State since beating the Buckeyes in 1978 and 1980... Attendance: 110,256
Prediction: No. 11 Penn State, 26 - No. 16 Ohio State, 9
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: No. 12 Penn State at Northwestern
• Penn State depth chart (as of 10/30)
• Official Game Notes
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Interview with Lake the Posts
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 9 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 9 2009
• Poll Results: Penn State at Northwestern
Postgame
• Game Story: Penn State defeats Kafka-less 'Cats, 34-13
• Game Review: Penn State 34, Northwestern 13
• Live Blog
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 31, 4:30 p.m. ET/ESPN (Carter Blackburn and Chris Spielman)
Weather Forecast: Cool, breezy.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 9-3.
Host: Northwestern Wildcats
Record: 5-3 (2-2, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Indiana, 29-28
Injuries: CB Sherrick McManis (leg) - possible; RB Stephen Simmons (ankle) - doubtful; S Brendan Smith (thumb) - possible; OL Mike Boyle (back) - out; LB Bryce McNaul (knee) - out; DT Jack DiNardo (shoulder) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Mike Kafka, WR Zeke Markshausen, WR Andrew Brewer; (defense) LB Quentin Davie, LB Nate Williams, CB Sherrick McManis
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald, 4th season, 24-21; 0-1 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 122.2 rush/270.4 pass/27.2 points per game
Defense - 117.9 rush/220.2 pass/23.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)/(+0.12) per game
Northwestern, on paper -- This was supposed to be the season for Northwestern. The Wildcats were coming off a nine-win season, topped off by the hard-fought overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl. But 2009 hasn't had the good fortune many hoped to see. The Cats have had to earn every one of their five wins coming into this week. Most of Northwestern's issues have come from injuries at key positions. Fourth-string running back Scott Concannon is expected to get the start this week, while 2008 All-American end Corey Wootton hasn't been the same since breaking his ankle in the bowl game. Consider this year's Northwestern squad the definition of snake-bitten.
It hasn't been all doom and gloom in Evanston, at least in the passing game. Senior QB Mike Kafka is one of the most dynamic signal callers in the Big Ten, yet one of the most underrated. Kafka leads the league in total offense per game (284.1) and pass yards per game (258.4). The Wildcats have also been great in the clutch the last four weeks, pulling out fantastic comebacks against Purdue and Indiana, the latter being the most astounding from a 28-3 deficit. Northwestern is a perfect example of one-dimensional offensive football, ranking No. 2 in pass yards per game, yet No. 10 in rush yards per game. But if one thing worries the purple-clad folks, it's turnovers. Northwestern has given away 17 total, good for fourth-worst in the Big Ten. At this stage in the season, Northwestern could be, offensively, the most unpredictable, yet dangerous team in the conference.
The defense has been a different story, though, as injuries stringing all the way back to 2008 have gutted this unit to a nearly unrecognizable state. It all started with Wootton's ankle injury and subsequent surgery. Earlier this week, Lake The Posts said, "Wootton is a shadow of his former self." The loss of such a dynamic talent along the front line has also taken a toll on what was expected to be a really good secondary this season. The Cats lost safety Sherrick McManis last week, forcing little-used Ricky Weina in for the entire second half. Northwestern's pass defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.3 percent of their passes, tenth-worst in the conference this season. But for all the defensive shortcomings so far, the Cats are tied with Penn State for third in the conference in interceptions (10), and are also tied with Indiana for third in total turnovers gained (18).
Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 7-1 (3-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Michigan, 35-10
Injuries: LB Sean Lee (knee) - probable; RB Stephfon Green (ankle) - doubtful; TB Brent Carter (knee) - probable; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - probable; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 390-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 184.4 rush/243.8 pass/30.2 points per game
Defense - 79.8 rush/160.5 pass/8.9 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)/(+0.37) per game
Penn State, on paper -- In last week's preview, I predicted that Michigan would not only allow the most points in a game thus far, but that the Wolverines would be held to their lowest point output of the year. I was dead right on both, as Penn State pummeled Michigan in the Big House. This Nittany Lions team has grown stronger each week since the Iowa loss back in September. One could even argue that Penn State is, right now, the most impressive team in the Big Ten. The scoring offense is second in the league behind Michigan (33 ppg), but the total offense (No. 1 Big Ten) is cranking out nearly 30 more yards per game than the Wolverines. And this hasn't been some fluky, short-field via turnovers scoring offense. Penn State has frequently marched the ball from its own territory into the end zone. But the turnover factor has been a big part of Penn State's success of late, as in the Lions have turned the ball over only twice in four games, with no giveaways at Michigan. Daryll Clark as been ruthlessly efficient during his team's winning streak, tossing eight touchdowns to only one pick. He can thank a vastly improved offensive line, and an increasingly powerful running game.
As much has been made about Penn State's offensive production, it's the defense that has stolen the show. The Nittany Lions jumped Florida as the No. 1 scoring defense in college football, and are allowing 44 yards and six touchdowns fewer than the Big Ten's No. 2 defense, Ohio State (284.8 ypg, 10 TD). Hell, even in the loss to Iowa, only 12 of the Hawkeyes 21 points came against the Lions' defense. This season has been a defensive masterpiece by coach Tom Bradley, who should be on everyone's short list for the Broyles Award for top assistant in college football. Penn State came into this season having lost seven defensive starters from a 2008 unit that allowed 14.4 points per game. So how are things going this season? Well, Penn State's defense is having its best season this decade, and if it's kept up until the end, one of its best seasons in the Joe Paterno era.
However, this late in the season, most teams have suffered from the injury bug, and Penn State hasn't been immune. The right tackle situation has been erratic at best, with third-stringer Ako Poti getting the start the last two weeks. All-America candidates Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman have only recently been able to get on the field at the same time, as Lee in particular has been hampered by a strained knee. Now, it appears Stephfon Green, the "two" in Penn State's one-two running attack, won't be ready to go for a while due to a bad ankle. I wouldn't go so far to say this team is beat up, but the injuries have, and could, cause some problems during the home stretch of the schedule.
On the field -- Northwestern usually gets up for Penn State, actually pouncing on the Lions for a two-game win streak in 2003-04. While I like what Pat Fitzgerald is doing in Evanston, this year's Cats probably don't have enough in the tank to pull off an epic upset this week. Penn State had little problem shutting down the top offense in the Big Ten, and even though Northwestern has a great senior quarterback and playmaking wide receivers, the lack of a running game will doom the Wildcats in this one. The Nittany Lions' defensive front seven can get pressure on a quarterback and stuff the run with just five rushing, but it might not even require that much this week. Penn State should be able to rush four and focus on blitzing for pass rush purposes only, while dropping six and seven back into coverage. Northwestern is one of those dink-and-dunk passing games, which Penn State feeds off of, not allowing any substantial yards after catch.
For Penn State's offense, it should end up coming down to holding onto the ball and not settling for field goals. The past few weeks, Penn State hasn't been its usual conservative self on the road, so I'm not expecting that to change now. Michigan had some success slowing down the Nittany Lions running game, but not enough. Northwestern could frustrate Penn State for a while, at least through the first quarter. That's where Clark comes in, against a suspect Northwestern secondary. Sherrick McManis leads the Cats in interceptions (3), but is hampered by an injury and might not have the kind of impact he would have without the injury. If Northwestern can't force Penn State into a few miscues at key junctures in this game, I just don't see the upset happening.
Extra points Penn State will jump out to a substantial lead, but Northwestern will creep back into the game before halftime... Daryll Clark will throw for at least two scores, but an interception, too... Corey Wootton will play his best game of the season, catching many off guard... Mike Kafka will lead the Wildcats in rushing... Penn State is only 4-2 vs NU this decade... Penn State's last trip to Evanston became an instant classic, comeback win that propelled the Lions to the Big Ten title... Attendance prediction: 21,310
Prediction: No. 12 Penn State, 34 - Northwestern, 13
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: No. 13 Penn State at Michigan
• Penn State depth chart (as of 10/23)
• Official Game Notes
• TV Coverage Maps
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Blue White Roundtable :: Michigan
• Interview with Maize and Blue Nation
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 8 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 8 2009
• Poll Results: Penn State at Michigan
Postgame
• Game Story: Penn State wins in Ann Arbor
• Game Review: Penn State 35, Michigan 10
• Live Blog:
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET/ABC Regional/ESPN Mirror (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Holly Rowe)
Weather Forecast: Cool, some showers.
Series Record: Michigan leads, 10-4.
Host: Michigan Wolverines
Record: 5-2 (1-2, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Delaware State (FCS), 63-6
Injuries: RB Carlos Brown (concussion) - probable; RB Brandon Minor (ankle) - probable; C David Molk (foot) - possible; CB Boubacar Cissoko (susp.) - out; RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Tate Forcier, RB Brandon Minor, RB Carlos Brown; (defense) LB Obi Ezeh, DE Brandon Graham, CB Donovan Warren
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez, 2nd season at Michigan, 8-11; 68-37 career overall, 2-3 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 235.0 rush/191.6 pass/37.3 points per game
Defense - 130.4 rush/232.9 pass/21.9 points per game
TO Margin - (-3)/(-0.43) per game
Michigan, on paper -- The Wolverines are one win away from bowl eligibility, which would be a major accomplishment for Rich Rodriguez in year two of his Michigan tenure. Of course, being minus-10 in turnovers last season would suggest the team was better than its 3-9 record, but 2009 has been a success in no understated terms. Much of the success has been the emergence of Rodriguez's patented spread-run attack that was so dangerous at West Virginia. This year, true frosh Tate Forcier has taken the reigns of the offense, and has already etched his name into Michigan football lore for the comeback win over Notre Dame in week two. But that game is far in the past now. Since, the Wolverines have gone 2-2, including two critical conference losses to Iowa and Michigan State. Forcier was benched against Iowa, partially due to a slight concussion, but backup speedster Denard Robinson couldn't get it done in the two-point defeat. Forcier should be back this week, along with his 1,027 pass yards and 9/4 ratio. Yet, for all his success this season, Forcier would have a much tougher time without some good running backs in Carlos Brown (336 yds) and Brandon Minor (274 yds) to lean on. This Michigan offense is No. 2 in the Big Ten in yardage, and leads the conference in points per game.
For all the statistical success the Michigan offense has enjoyed this season, the defense hasn't fared so well. The Wolverines are seventh in the Big Ten in total yardage, and fifth in points allowed. That's not to say Michigan doesn't have its share of star power on this side of the ball. LB Obi Ezeh and DE Brandon Graham have been causing headaches for opposing offenses all season long, while CB Donovan Warren is tied for second in the conference for interceptions with three. Warren also came up huge in the near-upset at Iowa, with a pick-six in the game's first minute. However, a few great players can't always make up for the rest of a unit that has given up big play after big play, in the air and on the ground. Michigan's defense has also been terribly ineffective at getting to the quarterback (10 sacks), despite plenty of talent in the front seven.
Offense and defense aren't the only units that have been key to Michigan's successes and failures this season. Kickoff coverage hasn't exactly been stellar, ranking eighth in the conference. Time of possession has been even worse for the Wolverines, who lead only a Minnesota team that was limited to less than 20 minutes last week against Penn State. Some bright spots, however, are Daryl Stonum's fantastic 27.2 average on kickoff returns (one TD), and Zoltan Mesko's 45.6 yards per punt.
Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-1 (2-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Minnesota, 20-0
Injuries: LB Sean Lee (knee) - possible; RB Stephfon Green (ankle) - possible; TB Brent Carter (knee) - possible; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - possible; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 389-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 187.0 rush/245.7 pass/29.6 points per game
Defense - 75.4 rush/163.4 pass/8.7 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)/(-0.14) per game
Penn State, on paper -- Oh how Penn State would love to get back a few of those turnovers in the loss to Iowa. Outside of it's one very poor showing against the Hawkeyes, the Nittany Lions offense has been able to move the ball with relative ease this season, and oddly enough, it's been the passing game that has led the way. Penn State's hefty 245 yards per game through the air has landed the Lions at fourth in the conference in pass offense. But more importantly, it has allowed the Penn State ground game to break out of its funk from earlier this season. For weeks, Penn State couldn't run the ball nearly as effectively as many had hoped coming into 2009, lingering in the bottom half of the conference's statistical rankings. However, with a whopping 338 yards against Illinois, Evan Royster and Stephfon Green haven't looked back. Going into this week, Penn State is now the No. 2 rushing team in the Big Ten. The emergence of a powerful run game has also pushed Penn State to be the No. 1 Big Ten offense, with the best yards-per-play average (6.4) of any conference team. But that's not all, folks. Just some other offensive statistics in which Penn State leads the conference or is the runner up: first downs, third down conversions, penalties, time of possession, sacks allowed, pass efficiency and scoring offense.
What more, the Penn State defense is making the offense look like amateurs. Penn State leads the Big Ten in every major defensive statistic, along with a few others like sacks, fourth down conversions, red zone defense, and opponent first downs. The Nittany Lions' scoring defense is No. 2 nationally, trailing Florida by only 0.04 points per game. Mind you, this has all be accomplished despite the Lions missing its two best defensive players for most of the season so far. Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee, prior to last week, had been on the field together for only three plays. Both missed several weeks with nagging injuries. It says a great deal about this unit, when two super stars are missing, that it can still play at the highest of levels. This Penn State defense was supposed to be a real Achilles' Heel coming into 2009, as both graduation and early NFL entries hit hard at key positions. The entire secondary needed to be replaced, while three great defensive ends were gone. Now, Penn State is only leading the Big Ten defensively in rush, pass and sacks. Not to shabby.
However, as good as the offense and defense have been, Penn State's special teams, particularly the return units, are leaving much to be desired. The Nittany Lions are eighth in the Big Ten in punt return average, and dead last in kickoff returns. Penn State has enjoyed great success in these areas the past few seasons, but is severely lacking in 2009. On the special teams' positive side, Penn State has done well on covering kickoffs and punts, even though much of those statistics are skewed by the Lions' large number of kickoffs and relatively few punts. Not to mention, Penn State boasts the top statistical punter in the conference, Jeremy Boone (Michigan's Mesko is second).
On the field -- When pundits see two conference-leading offenses going up against one another, their usual reaction is "YAY, SHOOTOUT!" Well, not so fast, my fiends. Michigan has been able to squeak by against decent competition, and are a Ricki Stanzi brain fart away from being blown out at Iowa. That's not to say the Wolverines haven't earned their 5-2 record; they've just been very lucky to get there, no thanks to the defense. On the other side, Penn State has lived by leaning on its defense when in a jam, which hasn't been all that often this season. Only one opponent, Iowa, has scored more than seven points when it mattered, and that was mostly due to Penn State's inability to hold onto the football.
Look for the biggest matchup of this game to happen up front, when both teams have the football. Michigan's offensive line, while very talented, hasn't faced a defensive front seven nearly as good as Penn State's, which now returns Sean Lee full-force. The Wolverines don't have a very dangerous passing game like, say, Minnesota does with Eric Decker, and the Lions held the Gophers to 100 yards passing. Penn State held the Gophers in check by blitzing the hell out of Adam Weber, and the same formula should work against Michigan. Tom Bradley's defense will try to force Tate Forcier to win it with his arm. Then for Michigan's defensive front, things will be tough sledding against a greatly improved Penn State offensive line and a more confident Daryll Clark. Unless Greg Robinson's boys can keep Clark on his back after every pass attempt, watch for the steady demolition of the Wolverines' secondary. When two offenses come into a game with nearly equal offensive numbers, the game usually boils down to which defense plays better and how the field position game develops. Michigan will want to neutralize its defensive shortcomings by giving Penn State a very long field. That shouldn't be too difficult, as long as Penn State only gets the ball on kickoffs and punts. Give the Nittany Lions a short field off a turnover, and this game will be over by halftime. Then again, with this year's Michigan team, no game is over by halftime, no matter the score.
But I just don't see Penn State choking in this one the way it did in 2005 or 2007. In those seasons, both teams were very much equal in talent. This season, it just looks like that gap is too wide for the Wolverines to overcome. If Penn State's running game doesn't get going right away, look for Clark and the pass game to loosen up the Michigan defense. Meanwhile, the Penn State defense will force the Wolverines into just enough mistakes to keep this one out of reach after the band plays.
Extra points -- Penn State will hold Michigan to its lowest point total of the season... Michigan will surrender the most points of the season... The score will be close in the second quarter... Michigan will commit three turnovers, to Penn State's two... The rainy, cold weather will contribute to at least three important plays... This will be the largest crowd Penn State will have played in front of all season, until the Ohio State game... Prior to last season's blowout, this game was decided by seven points or fewer four meetings in a row, all Michigan wins... Despite being 4-10 against Michigan, two of Penn State's wins have come in the Big House... Attendance prediction: 109,750
Prediction: No. 13 Penn State, 27 - Michigan, 9
Story updated 4:30 p.m., Oct. 22
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: Minnesota at No. 13/14 Penn State
• Penn State depth chart (as of 10/16)
• Official Game Notes
• TV Coverage Maps
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Blue White Roundtable :: Minnesota
• Interview with The Daily Gopher
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 7 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 7 2009
• Poll Results: Minnesota at Penn State
• Live Blog: Back next week, PSU vs Michigan.
Postgame
• Game Review: Penn State 20, Minnesota 0
• ZN LIVE, see below: Back next week, PSU vs Michigan.
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET/ABC Regional/ESPN Mirror (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Holly Rowe)
Weather Forecast: Cold, Constant Rain/Snow mix all weekend.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 6-4.
Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 5-1 (1-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Eastern Illinois, 52-3
Injuries: TB Brent Carter (knee) - possible; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; LB Sean Lee (knee) - possible; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - possible; RT DeOn'Tae Pannell - possible; WR Devon Smith - possible; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, RB Stephfon Green; (defense) The entire secondary, DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 388-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 188.7 rush/238.8 pass/31.2 points per game
Defense - 81.8 rush/173.8 pass/10.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-0.33) per game
Penn State, on paper -- The Nittany Lions are teetering on being a really good football team. The first three weeks of the season, Penn State was horribly average, especially in the second half of games. Most of the scores were blowouts by halftime, but virtually nothing would happen in the final two quarters. The defense was smothering mediocre and bad teams, while the offense left much to be desired. Then came the Iowa game. Penn State's flaws were exposed in painful fashion, as the Nittany Lions' inability to close out games came back to haunt them. The Hawkeyes hung around for three quarters, just waiting for Penn State to screw up. The Lions did, and Iowa walked away with a 16-point fourth quarter and 21-10 win.
However, since that loss, Penn State has seemed to turn things around. A trip to Illinois seemed to bare much of the same for Penn State, as the Lions led by only a 7-3 margin at halftime. Then the light went on, as Penn State went on to rush for more than 300 yards, including two 100-yard backs and an 82-yard day on the ground by Daryll Clark. Penn State's defense was also very impressive in the road victory, as the patented (yet sometimes gut-wrenching) bend-but-don't-break gave up a few big plays, but only 10 points before the game was well in hand.
Evan Royster (87 att, 5.8 ypc, 4 TD) and Stephfon Green (45 att, 5.5 ypc, 3 TD) are emerging as one of the premier one-two punches in the Big Ten, as the two have combined for 377 yards on the ground the last two games. Clark (228 ypg, 12/7 ratio) hasn't been nearly as explosive as he was at this point last season, but he has been a great steadying force for a young team. Of course, much of the last two weeks' production on offense can be attribute to the greatly improves play from the offensive line. Clark hasn't been sacked since the Iowa loss, while the run game has nearly doubled its production.
Visitor: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record: 4-2 (2-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Purdue, 35-20
Injuries: LB Nate Triplett (N/A) - probable; OL Trey Davis (N/A) - probable; P Dan Orseske (mono) - probable; S Mike Rallis (leg) - out for season;
Key Players: (offense) QB Adam Weber, WR Eric Decker, RB Duane Bennett; (defense) LB Lee Campbell, LB Nate Triplett, DT Eric Small
Head Coach: Tim Brewster, 3rd season at Minnesota, 12-19 overall.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 114.5 rush/205.2 pass/27.0 points per game
Defense - 162.7 rush/218.5 pass/23.8 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)/(-0.2) per game
Minnesota, on paper -- The Gophers have been a tough team to figure out this season. This is a team that's been out-gained by opponents by 61 yards per game, yet has found ways to win four of six games. The opener at Syracuse was about as big a headache as you could imagine, as the Gophers scored nine unanswered points after halftime to beat the Orange in overtime. It took another comeback to beat Air Force at home, a game in which the Falcons ran for 261 yards out of its wishbone offense. The Gophers were able to give Cal a run for its money, but four turnovers, including three picks by Adam Weber, doomed Minnesota's chance for a win. The Gophers have split their last four games, but have been out-gained in all of them. Add in the Air Force win, and Minnesota has been out-gained in five of six games this season.
Weber (204 ypg, 6/8 ratio) has been somewhat maligned this season by fans, but it hasn't been completely his fault. The offensive line has been terrible in pass protection, giving up 15 sacks in six games, while the running game hasn't made nearly the impact many were hoping for in the off-season. Turnovers have been Minnesota's biggest problem, though, particularly in both losses, to Cal and Wisconsin. On the flip side of that, the Minnesota defense hasn't been great, but continues to force key mistakes by opponents. In the Syracuse win, the defense set up the offense at the Orange 16 for an easy early touchdown. Against Wisconsin, a fumble return for a score gave the Gophers new life late. Last week against Purdue, three Boilermaker turnovers helped Minnesota secure the win in the second half.
With the Gophers offense taking its time to figure out how to be anything close to consistent, it will be up to the defense to step up and play big. The talent is there, but the unit hasn't come up with any sort of dominant, or even very good, performance this season. As the weather gets worse, and the new outdoor digs in Minneapolis, Tim Brewster's boys will lean more and more on the defense to, at the very least, make a big stop here or there in the clutch.
On the field -- You would think a team from Minnesota would have little issue playing in cold, wet, snowy conditions. That's not the case here, as the Gophers will face their first significant weather of the season. Of course, that doesn't exclude Penn State, which hasn't exactly overcome difficult conditions in any games so far. The forecast is for a mix of rain and snow, which has already hunkered down over the entire commonwealth. It could become very cold once the skies dim, sometime during the second half.
I'm looking closely at both teams' rushing games and rush defenses. Penn State doesn't just have an edge in these matchups; it's not even close. The Nittany Lions rank eighth in the nation in rush defense, while the Gophers are 99th in rush offense. Conversely, Minnesota's rush defense is ranked only 83rd nationally, while Penn State's rush attack is 32nd. Then again, both of those statistics are shaky. Minnesota had a terrible day against Air Force; Penn State has been roaring on the ground the last two weeks. This game will be a great gauge for both teams on the ground.
Then there's the special teams. Minnesota blocked a Purdue field goal and returned it for a touchdown last week. Penn State fans have been trying to forget what a blocked kick can do to the momentum of a game. But there's even more bad news for the Lions. Minnesota has been not just good, but phenomenal on special teams this season, which has been a huge factor in why they've been able to win four games despite being out-gained in five. The Gophers have averaged 19 yards per punt return. Penn State? 4.9, and no, that's not a typo. The Lions have been pathetic returning punts, just as they have been returning kickoffs. Penn State has stumbled its way to only 15 yards per kickoff return. Minnesota has been great, ripping off 27 yards per return. If the Gophers are going to win this game, it will more likely than not come down to special teams play.
While turnovers and special teams can be great equalizers in games that appear to be mismatches on paper, most of the time, the more talented teams will win the game. Penn State looks like that more talented team this week. I really like the Lions rushing attack against the Gophers defense. And while I won't doubt that Eric Decker will catch a few big passes, the Minnesota offense could sputter at key junctures in the game, similar to what happened to Illinois. Penn State doesn't look often at home the last five seasons, so I don't expect this game to buck that trend.
Extra points -- Daryll Clark might not throw for a touchdown, but could run for several... Penn State will score a defensive touchdown for the second straight week... But, so will Minnesota... Eric Decker will catch fewer than five passes... Minnesota will allow more than 200 rush yards, but less than 200 pass yards... Penn State will allow more than 100 rush yards, but less than 200 pass yards... The weather will keep this game from being sold out... Piles of snow might line the sidelines and end zones... The score at halftime will not be indicative of how each team played overall... The final score will be... Attendance prediction: 107,100 (due to weather)
Prediction: No. 13/14 Penn State, 31 - Minnesota, 20
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: Eastern Illinois at No. 12/14 Penn State
• Penn State depth chart (as of 10/09)
• Official Game Notes
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Blue White Roundtable :: Eastern Illinois
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 6 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 6 2009
Postgame
• Game Review: Penn State 52, E. Illinois 3
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 10, 12:00 p.m. ET/ESPN Classic (Dave Lamont and JC Pearson)
Weather Forecast: Cool, Sunny. Ground could be wet from Friday rain.
Series Record: First ever meeting.
Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Illinois, 35-17
Injuries: LB Navorro Bowman (groin - probable), LB Nate Stupar (ankle - possible), RT DeOn'Tae Pannell (possible - ankle), LB Sean Lee (knee - doubtful), RT Nerraw McCormack (doubtful - ankle), WR Devon Smith (concussion - doubtful), DT Brandon Ware (ankle - out), DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle - out), FB Josh Matzkin (foot - out), DE Pete Massaro (ACL - out ssn), LB Mike Mauti (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, QB Kevin Newsome; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, SS Nick Sukay, LB Josh Hull
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 387-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 169.4 rush/233.0 pass/27.0 points per game
Defense - 86.4 rush/179.2 pass/11.6 points per game
TO Margin - (-3)/(-0.6) per game
Penn State, on paper -- Any chance of an Eastern Illinois upset bid went out the window when Penn State's offensive line woke up from a four-week-long nap. At Illinois, Penn State was able to wear down the Illini defense, highlighted by a completely dominant third quarter, during which Penn State out-gained Illinois 208-8 in 15 minutes. Most of that was due to an offensive line that plowed holes bigger than anything the Nittany Lion running backs have run through all season. Not only did Penn State boast two 100-yard running backs for the day, but Daryll Clark chipped in for 83 yards, including a 51-yard jaunt on third down that seemed to break Illinois' collective back. It was easily the Lions' most complete game on offense all season long, after being unable to do so in any of the four previous games.
While the offense had struggled before last weekend, the defense had kept Penn State in or ahead of every game. Even against Iowa, the Penn State defense surrendered only 13 of the 21 points against the Lions. Last week, the defense gave up a few big plays to Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn, but only three points going into the half. The defense was key in the game-changing third quarter, stalling drive after drive, usually in a three-and-out. It was a prime example of Penn State's "bend, but don't break" defense. However, the final numbers from Illinois are a bit misleading, as the Nittany Lions went into prevent-mode towards the end, which meant a ton of garbage yards and points for the Illini. Penn State looks like it's found an offense to go along with an already great defense.
Visitor: Eastern Illinois Panthers
Record: 4-1 (2-1, Ohio Valley)
Last Game: Lost vs Eastern Kentucky, 36-31
Injuries: N/A
Key Players: (offense) RB Mon Williams, QB Jake Christensen; (defense) LB Cory Leman, CB CJ James
Head Coach: Bob Spoo, 22nd season at EIU, 136-110-1 overall.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 152.2 rush/219.4 pass/29.2 points per game
Defense - 94.0 rush/171.4 pass/15.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)/(-0.2) per game
Eastern Illinois, on paper -- The Panthers have more talent than a middle of the road FCS team, with transfers from Iowa, Florida and Michigan in the starting lineup. That talent has led to EIU's top 25 ranking, and a 4-1 record with the only loss by five points to no. 18 Eastern Kentucky. In last week's loss, Eastern Illinois couldn't get out of its own way. Despite several leads in the game, turnovers and poor pass protection absolutely killed the Panthers. Former Iowa quarterback Jake Christensen fumbled twice and was sacked six times, but was still able to have a good day through the air. Christensen passed for 21-of-35 for 294 yards and 3 touchdowns in the losing effort. Florida transfer Mon Williams was held under his season average coming in, rushing for only 77 yards and one score against the Colonels. This season, EIU has lost a whopping 10 fumbles, on top of three interceptions by Christensen.
But with all those turnovers, the defense has been fantastic at giving the ball back to the offense, recovering eight fumbles and picking off four passes. The Panthers defense also blocked a punt last week, but the offense wasn't able to capitalize on the great field position handed to it. Cory Leman, brother of former Illinois All-American J Leman, has emerged this season as a leader on defense, topping the charts in tackles (47) from his linebacker spot.
On the field -- Eastern Illinois may be a good FCS team, but not nearly good enough to pull the mammoth upset in Happy Valley. With such a stock of FBS talent on offense, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see the Panthers hang around for a quarter or two. It will all depend on the defense Tom Bradley decides to run for Penn State. If the Nittany Lions can attack the Panthers' offense, not allowing Christensen to get into a rhythm, it should be a rough afternoon for EIU.
The Nittany Lions will be missing a ton of players this week due to injuries, but with such a deep roster, particularly on defense, Penn State shouldn't miss much of a beat. With such a banged up depth chart, this is essentially the perfect week to host a team like Eastern Illinois. It will allow Penn State to rest its starting lineup, and finally give the backups some meaningful playing time. If the Lions can get out to a big lead before halftime, all eyes will be on second-string freshman quarterback Kevin Newsome. Even Joe Paterno said this week he wishes Newsome had seen more time in the first five weeks. This should be the time to do it.
The biggest indicator of the talent gap between two teams is usually found on defense. Eastern Illinois could move the ball a bit against Penn State, but the real difference in this game will be the Panthers' defensive speed against the Lions' offense. Even if it takes Penn State a few drives to get things rolling, scoring points in this game won't be a problem for the Nittany Lions.
Extra points -- This will be the third time in four seasons Penn State has played an FCS opponent... Beaver Stadium has only reached capacity once this season, Sept. 26 vs Iowa... EIU has won four Ohio Valley Conference titles since 2000... Attendance prediction: 104,800
Prediction: No. 12/14 Penn State, 38 - Eastern Illinois, 3
Your Penn State football gameday headquarters.
Pregame
• Preview: No. 13/15 Penn State at Illinois
• Penn State depth chart (as of 10/02)
• Official Game Notes
• TV Coverage Maps
• Penn State Roster
• Joe Paterno's Press Conference
• Blue White Roundtable :: Illinois
• Interview with Hail to the Orange
• Big Ten Pick'em: Week 5 2009
• ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 5 2009
• Poll Results: Penn State at Illinois
• Live Blog: Will begin at 3 p.m. today, at the top of this post.
Postgame
• Game Story: Lions run past Illinois 35-17
• Game Review: Penn State 35, Illinois 17
• Boone earns Big Ten Player of the Week
• ZN LIVE, see below:
Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET/ESPN or ABC (Mike Patrick, Craig James and Heather Cox)
Weather Forecast: Cool, showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads Illinois, 13-3
Host: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 1-2 (0-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Ohio St, 30-0
Injuries: LB Martez Wilson (neck - out ssn), CB Miami Thomas (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn; (defense) DE Clay Nurse, DB Tavon Wilson, DE Corey Liuget
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 5th season at UI, 19-32; 0-1 bowl record; 8th season overall, 42-46; 1-3 vs Penn State
Season Statistics:
Offense - 192.0 rush/155.7 pass/18.0 points per game
Defense - 132.3 rush/253.7 pass/28.0 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-0.67) per game
Illinois, on paper -- Last week's game at Ohio State really skewed Illinois' statistics, as the Buckeyes did not attempt a pass before halftime, and only 13 after the break. Even with the 82 allowed passing yards to Terrelle Pryor, the Illini are still giving up an average of 254 pass yards per game. But in Columbus, the defense wasn't at all helped out by the offense, which imploded as the game went on. Illinois finished with 170 total yards, and only four completions to Arrelious Benn for a mere 33 yards. The Illini have played a very difficult schedule so far this season, even with the Illinois State game on there. Missouri has turned out to be much better than anyone anticipated, and Ohio State looks like it could run the table after nearly defeating USC. The most anyone can say about this Illini team is that we don't really know what kind of team they are, even after three games.
Many in Illini country have pointed to a shift in offensive philosophy this season under new coordinator Mike Schultz as the reason for the inconsistency on that side of the ball. While Illinois still third in the conference in rushing per game, most of that was piled on in the Illinois State win. Juice Williams use to be asked to run the zone-read runs and down-field bombs. Now he's asked to run a more West Coast offense, with shorter, accurate passes. That's not what he's built to do. Just look at his last two trips to Columbus, and you'll see the difference.
On defense, Illinois has struggled mightily the last two seasons. Add in the loss this year of star LB Martez Wilson, and this unit is in serious need of some stability. Illinois has only totaled four sacks this season, and is allowing opponents to score on 90 percent of all red zone trips, including seven touchdowns in 10 attempts. Worse, opponents are converting 47 percent of all third downs against the Illini. This is still a dangerous team with a lot of talent, but without any sort of breather to regain its composure, Illinois could struggle for a while longer this season.
Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 3-1 (0-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Iowa, 21-10
Injuries: LB Navorro Bowman (groin - probable), LB Sean Lee (knee - possible), LB Nate Stupar (ankle - possible), DT Brandon Ware (ankle - out), DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle - out), FB Josh Matzkin (foot - out), DE Pete Massaro (ACL - out ssn), LB Mike Mauti (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) The entire offensive line; (defense) DL Jared Odrick, CB D'Anton Lynn, LB Josh Hull
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 386-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 127.2 rush/247.5 pass/25.0 points per game
Defense - 75.5 rush/158.2 pass/10.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-4)/(-1) per game
Penn State, on paper -- The Nittany Lions are dead last in Big Ten turnover margin, a statistic that screams loudly when looking at Penn State's loss to Iowa last week. The five turnovers -- counting the blocked punt for a touchdowns -- made all the difference in the game, particularly considering Penn State's defense played well enough to win without the offense working against itself.
As has been the case most of the season so far, the Penn State offense hasn't been able to move the ball at will against even inferior opponents. Most of the Lions' offensive woes have been a direct consequence of sub-par line play. Penn State's offensive line has struggled in one facet or another in every game this year, whether it be run blocking against Akron and Syracuse, or pass protection against Temple and Iowa. Two linemen so far have lost their starting jobs; LG Matt Stankiewitch was replaced by Johnnie Troutman before the Temple game, and DeOn'tae Pannell was pulled from RT during the Iowa debacle, with Nerraw McCormack coming in and probably starting this week. Nearly every question mark going into the season has been answered, from the secondary to the receivers, except for the offensive line. If Penn State can't get it together here, it could be a season full of performances like that against Iowa.
The defense, probably the second-biggest question mark heading into the season, has performed well beyond expectations, particularly in a losing effort last week. The defensive line has been able to stuff the run, leading the conference in rush defense (75.5 ypg). The entire front seven has combined to lead the conference in sacks (12). While the secondary is leading the conference in yards allowed and has a superb TD/INT ratio at 2-5. The Penn State defense currently leads the Big Ten in run defense, pass defense, total defense, sacks, first downs allowed, 3rd down conversions allowed, 4th down conversions allowed, red zone scoring percentage, and tied for first with Iowa for total touchdowns allowed. Not all bad for a unit that had to replace four senior starters in the backfield, a first-team All-America defensive end, and two other veteran defensive ends.
On the field -- While the Penn State offense will garner much of the attention this weekend from analysts and fans, it could be the defense that makes or breaks the Nittany Lions in Champaign. Illinois has consistently put up big offensive numbers the last three meetings, and could very well do it again. If Penn State can take a few pointers from what the Ohio State-Illinois tape shows, the Lions have a great chance to shut down a potentially potent Illini attack. But for both offenses, it will be all about the turnover margin in this game. The team that commits the most mistakes, as in any game, will have a serious chance to lose this one. For Penn State, it will be efficiency in the red zone and pass protection for Daryll Clark. For Illinois, it will be staying on the field to keep Penn State's offense on the bench.
But the defenses aren't nearly close to each other in terms of production and talent. Penn State has been able to reload the past few years, rather than completely rebuild, something Illinois doesn't have the luxury of doing. This could turn out to be a sloppy, dreadful game for both teams, but I just don't see Illinois as having the firepower on offense, or the speed on defense to come out on top.
Extra points -- Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has only lost twice to Illinois, both times in Champaign... The PSU-UI series has borne many memorable moments in Nittany Lions' history, including the "LaVar Leap" in 1998 and "The Drive" in 1994... Penn State's last trip to Memorial Stadium was a 27-20 loss... Attendance prediction: 62,400
Prediction: No. 13/15 Penn State, 27 - Illinois, 23
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