Preview: No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Nov. 7, 3:30 p.m. ET/ABC and ESPN2 (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Holly Rowe)
Weather Forecast: Cool, clear.
Series Record: Tied, 12-12.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 8-1 (4-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Northwestern, 34-13
Injuries: RB Stephfon Green (ankle) - probable; TB Brent Carter (knee) - probable; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - probable; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 391-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 182.0 rush/247.1 pass/30.7 points per game
Defense - 84.1 rush/170.7 pass/9.3 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)/(+0.55) per game

Penn State, on paper -- With nine games in the books, this year could be described as a tale of two seasons for Penn State: pre-Iowa and post-Iowa. Not a single member of the Penn State community was comfortable with the Nittany Lions' September campaign, after not-so-impressive wins over mediocre teams, and an embarrassment on national TV at the hands of the Hawkeyes. Then something happened. Chalk it up to some average competition, or that Iowa might just be a better team than anyone had predicted. But Penn State started winning, impressively. The Nittany Lions blew away Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan. The turnovers that had plagued Penn State earlier in the season had now vanished. The offensive line was actually opening running lanes. Daryll Clark was razor-sharp passing the ball. And the defense still hadn't let up, even in the face of better offenses. Penn State would end up on the ropes for nearly two quarters at Northwestern, going into the locker rooms trailing at halftime for the first time this season. But the Nittany Lions, helped partly by an injured Wildcats quarterback, came through with a big win on the road. Most importantly, it was a comeback win.

Much of the Nittany Lions' success can be attributed to two things, one being QB Daryll Clark, the other the defense. Clark is by far the most efficient quarterback in the conference at this stage of the season, tossing nine touchdowns to only one pick the last five games. His decision making is second to none, and only gets better each week. Many had called for him to regress this season, due to a rebuilt offensive line and brand new receivers all around. But Clark has managed to do something only great quarterbacks can, make the players around him better. The wide receivers are on track to help Clark smash the Penn State single-season passing record, while the offensive line has given up three sacks the last five games, with only 10 sacks the entire year. Topping it all off, such a potent pass attack has forced defenses to refrain from stacking the box against Evan Royster and the rushing attack.

There's not much to say about the Penn State defense, except that it's now leading the nation in scoring defense, while leading the Big Ten in every single major defensive category. But the scary thing for Penn State's final four opponents? Linebackers Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee are both 100 percent, with Lee leading the team in tackles last week in his first start back from injury.

Visitor: Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 7-2 (4-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat New Mexico St, 45-0
Injuries: K Aaron Pettrey (knee) - out; LB Andrew Sweat (knee) - out; QB Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) - probable; RB Jaamal Berry (hamstring) - possible; OL Mike Adams (knee) - out; DB Aaron Gant (N/A) - out; RB Marcus Williams (knee) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Terrelle Pryor, WR DeVier Posey, WR Dane Sanzenbacher; (defense) LB Ross Homan, DL Thaddeus Gibson, DB Curt Coleman
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 9th season, 90-21; 4-5 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 186.6 rush/189.6 pass/31.0 points per game
Defense - 86.4 rush/173.6 pass/11.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)/(+0.12) per game

Ohio State, on paper -- The Buckeyes have been anything but consistent for any stretch this season, avoiding an upset at the hands of Navy--a team that just lost to Temple--losing a close contest in Ohio Stadium to USC--a team that lost to Washington and was just blown away by Oregon--followed by two shutout wins and two more blowout wins. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, after what was supposed to be a breakthrough spring practice, didn't look nearly as sharp has many in Buckeyeland had hoped to see. In the three-week span covering wins over Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin, Pryor completed just 30 of 54 passes for 335 total yards. Then there was the Purdue debacle. Ohio State went into West Lafayette feeling good, but left feeling sick, as the Boilermakers emerged with a 26-18 victory. Since then, it's been more of the same mind-boggling inconsistency, as the Buckeyes have outscored its last two opponents 83-7, but have had to do it with turnovers and trick plays.

Pryor is by far not the only culprit in Ohio State's lack of consistency through the first nine games. Long the stalwart force for the Buckeyes, the defense could not stop USC on its game-winning drive, or the Purdue offense. This unit was faced with replacing linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, and corner Malcolm Jenkins. No easy task by any means, but it's not a young or inexperienced group in any sense. The defensive line trio of Cameron Heyward, Doug Worthington and Thaddeus Gibson have more than 70 starts under their belts, while veterans like Chimdi Chekwa, Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell were all starters in 2008. Surprisingly enough, the one unit that has underperformed has been the linebackers. With the loss of last year's stars, the Buckeye 'backers haven't been able to reload with the same speed as we saw in 2006.

How can anyone analyze Ohio State without looking into its special teams situation? Well, it's not looking nearly as good as needed for "Tressel-ball" to be successful. The Buckeyes' two punters are combining for only 38 yards per punt, while on the flip side, the punt return average is a terrible 6.1 yards. The kickoff return unit hasn't been bad, but its 24.8 yards per return average is padded by Ray Small's 96-yard touchdown against Wisconsin. But the biggest hit to this unit came just last week, when kicker Aaron Pettrey was knocked out for the rest of the season with a leg injury.

On the field -- Ohio State rakes in five-star recruits better than any team that doesn't play in Gainesville or Los Angeles. But talent doesn't always guarantee a win each week. Heading into Beaver Stadium, against an extra hostile crowd due to Pryor's triumphant return to his home state, facing a Penn State squad that's playing better, cleaner football than any team in the Big Ten, I just can't see this going the Buckeyes' way. Penn State has been able to fix its problems much faster than Ohio State, particularly along the offensive line and filling the defensive holes left from last season's departures.

Despite falling behind the Buckeyes and Michigan in scoring offense, Penn State still leads the conference in total offense, is third in passing, and fourth in rushing. Ohio State, meanwhile, is the second-worst pass offense in the conference, while only sixth in rushing. This would support the assertion that Ohio State gains most of its offensive points this season through short fields, non-offensive touchdowns, and running up the score on weak opponents. There might not be any cheap or easy points in this game, but one or two turnovers could end up making the difference in which team comes out alive. I'll take the team with the senior quarterback and the top scoring defense in college football.

Extra points -- Did I mention that I correctly predicted the EXACT score of last week's win over Northwestern? Well, I did... Ohio State will be held to its lowest scoring output of the season... Terrelle Pryor will throw two interceptions, but not fumble the ball... Ohio State won't reach 300 total yards... Penn State will not turn the ball over for the fourth-straight week, but will fall on its own fumble once or twice... Penn State hasn't won consecutive games against Ohio State since beating the Buckeyes in 1978 and 1980... Attendance: 110,256

Prediction: No. 11 Penn State, 26 - No. 16 Ohio State, 9