Northwestern is the last team not named
Michigan or Ohio State to beat Penn State in Beaver Stadium. Lions fans will remember Nov. 7, 2004 as the day Penn State fell to a very lonely last place in the Big Ten, thanks to Northwestern. This series has had plenty of great moments, like 1995 for Cats fans, and 2001 and 2005 for Penn Staters. It could get even better in 2009, as Penn State travels to Evanston for what is being pegged as a major trap game for the Lions.
So, what do we really know about the 2009 Wildcats? Let's find out, in today's First Look.
In Fitz they trust - Northwestern really hit a home run with Pat Fitzgerald. Since Randy Walker's sudden death in 2006, "Fitz" has taken his teams from 4-8 to 6-6 to a fantastic 9-4 last year, including an overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl, in which Northwestern actually outplayed the Tigers. Fitzgerald has been able to instill in his teams a kind of grit an toughness that could only come from the former two-time Bednarik Award winner.
Fitzgerald's coaching team is just as good, too. Defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz made an immediate impact in 2008, as Northwestern's defense allowed 20.2 ppg, it's best mark since Gary Barnett was head coach. On offense, Mick McCall should be able to have his unit improve on last year's 24.4 ppg. McCall was OC at Bowling Green in 2006 and 2007, when the Falcons went from 19 ppg to 30 ppg in one offseason.
One-sided affair - Northwestern's defense, considering it's Northwestern, was fantastic last year. Even better for the Wildcats? Eight starters return, including AA candidate DE Corey Wootton. After allowing a very good 214 pass ypg last year, all four starting defensive backs return, plus CB Justan Vaughn, who actually beat out eventual FR AA Jordan Mabin. But Vaughn was injured and missed the final 11 games last year. It's a good thing the Wildcats' defense should be so good, because...
The offense could have some issues, returning 5.5 starters (QB Mike Kafka only started six), with four being on the offensive line. Those four linemen should be able to give Kafka time to work his dual-threat magic. But with 73 percent of last year's receiving yardage gone, and less than 500 total rushing yards returning (Kafka and RB Stephen Simmons), the offense might not have the firepower to win in a shootout.
Start fast - If Penn State fans thought the Lions' non-conference schedule was a cupcake, they should take a look at Northwestern's. With Towson (FCS), Eastern Michigan, away at Syracuse, and Miami(OH) on the slate, the Wildcats have a great chance to win all their non-conference games for just the second time since 1963 (4-0 in 2008). The first three teams I just listed are also the first three on the schedule, followed by Minnesota, at Purdue, then the date with Miami(OH). The Wildcats have a great chance, depending on how improved Minnesota is this year, to open 5-1 or even 6-0.
That kind of success out of the gate would allow Northwestern to get into a nice rhythm before traveling to Michigan State, hosting Indiana and Penn State, then heading to Iowa and Illinois, before wrapping it all up against Wisconsin in Evanston. Missing Michigan and Ohio State is always a plus, but returning Penn State and Wisconsin is an equal trade. Northwestern could finish with 7-8 wins, but in the lower tier of the Big Ten standings.
From enemy territory: This week, Lake the Posts was kind enough to talk a bit about Northwestern.
What's one positive about this year's Wildcats?
LTP: One? There are about 20!!! I would say the biggest positive is the strength of the defense, which barring injury, has a chance to be the premiere "D" in the entire conference. With a loaded secondary, an All-American DE in Corey Wootton and a rising star as his bookend (Vince Browne), our "D" should give us a chance in almost every game.
What's one negative about this year's Wildcats?
LTP: The game learning curve of our skill players. RB is still a "by committee" approach which is translation for "question mark". I'm less concerned about the WR corps which gets all of the media attention for having to replace three accomplished seniors (Peterman, Lane, Ward). We've got a lot of game experience there and talent. Thankfully, we've got a forgiving non-conference schedule to get our game legs at the skill slots on "O".
Name something most casual fans might not know about this year's Wildcats.
LTP: QB Mike Kafka has a good arm. All the hype surrounds his ability to run, but I think those "in the know" believe he will actually put up better numbers than CJ Bacher did last year, in part b/c of his ability to force defenses to respect the run, but in part due to his arm strength and accuracy. He had nearly a 70% completion percentage last year, which is significant as he played almost the equivalent of 25% of the games.
For more on Northwestern:
Northwestern 2009 Schedule
Complete Spring Game Coverage
More from First Look '09:
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Iowa Hawkeyes
Temple Owls
Syracuse Orange
Akron Zips
More below the fold...
