Turnovers, the upset's main ingredient
I hadn't intended to write anything today, at least until much later. However, after ending the first quarter of an NCAA10 game against Michigan in the 2010 season, it was just too good to let go.
At the break, both the No. 1 Nittany Lions (4-0) and the No. 14 Wolverines (4-0) combined for 200 yards exactly, and the score was tied at seven. That would sound about right, until you look at the box score:
Total yards:
Penn State - 199
Michigan - 1
As you would have guessed from this posts headline, turnovers played a definitive role in that first quarter.
Turnovers:
Penn State - 2
Michigan - 0
Here's how things went down.
Penn State received the kickoff, and proceeded to drive down the field at breakneck speed. But inside the 10 yard line, Evan Royster fumbled and Michigan recovered. Drive halted.
Michigan goes three-and-out, including a sack of Tate Forcier by Devon Still. Punt.
Penn State fields the punt, and begins the drive inside its own 35. Again, Kevin Newsome connects with his receivers for huge chunks of yardage, including a 60-yard catch and run by Andrew Szczerba down the east sideline assisted by a great block by Derek Moye. In a three-wide shotgun set, Newsome takes the snap and releases a quick pass to a wide open slanting Brett Brackett. But the pass is tipped by a Michigan lineman, and picked off Donovan Warren. Warren returns the pick for a 94-yard touchdown. Michigan 7, Penn State 0
Michigan kicks off, and Stephfon Green returns the kick to Penn State's 40. Royster gains a few good runs, and Newsome connects on third down. At Michigan's 13, Newsome hits Moye on a slant for the touchdown. Michigan 7, Penn State 7
Michigan goes three-and-out on the next possession, and the quarter ends as Penn State takes the field.
Now, don't for one second think that I expect a video game to accurately simulate what will happen on the field in any given real-life game. But I thought this one example was worth mentioning here.
Turnovers in football are probably the most important statistic when trying to figure out a team. Remember Illinois in 2006? That team went 2-10, was -15 in turnovers, but actually out-gained its opponents by 36 ypg.
Michigan had tons of turnover problems* (see update below) in 2008, just as Penn State did in 2003.
And how can we forget the most famous turnover in Penn State history, on Jan 2, 1987 in Tempe, AZ?
Turnovers are just one ingredient of an upset, but it's more like High Fructose Corn Syrup than Red Dye No. 4 -- it always tops the list.
*Of course, Michigan's problems ran much deeper than just turnovers in '08, as we can see here:
But even with all the hilarity aside, that video just continues to show what turnovers will do to your team.
