Blue White Roundtable :: Illinois

Penn State heads to Champaign this Saturday for a mid-afternoon clash with the not-so-Fighting Illini. But hey, not like any of us in Happy Valley should talk. On with the roundtable.

In to particular order:
W. F. Yurasko
Happy Hour Valley
The Nittany Line
Zombie Nation
Nittany Whiteout
Penn State Clips
2 The Lion

Blue White Roundtable - Week 5, Illinois Fighting Illini

1) The BCS Championship Game dream is dead, but Penn State can still go to the Rose Bowl (at least in theory). What's your best guess about our final record and bowl destination?

Psh! Dead? Just like Ohio State's was dead in 2007? Or LSU after they lost TWO games? There hasn't been an unbeaten national champ since 2005. I wouldn't rule out anything this early in the season. What if Iowa goes 10-2. That loss would look a lot better, no? But if I had to put a number on Penn State's win total this season, it would be anywhere from three to 12. I also imagine the Lions have a shot at some bowl after Christmas.

2) Illinois beat I-AA Illinois state, but sandwiched it with losses to Mizzou (37-9 in St. Louis) and at Ohio State (30-0). They have, by far, the worst pass offense in the Big Ten and their pass defense stinks as well. They put little pressure on the quarterback (1.3 sacks per game) and they do a lousy job in protecting the passer (3.33 sacks per game). In short, the Illini stink. Who rights the ship on Saturday, PSU or Illinois? Discuss.

Let's just say I'm going to pick on of those two teams. Illinois hasn't been the same on defense since Captain America J Leman graduated, and their only decent player on that side of the ball, Martez Wilson, went down before the season got going. Their defensive ends are, despite popular opinion, decent. However, I'm not terribly worried about this Illini unit against the Penn State offense, even with a terrible line. This one will be closer than anyone thinks, mainly because it's easier to pick a game when you say that.

3) The Nittany Lions are 2-8 this decade in Big Ten openers and 3-6 in Big Ten road openers. (Obviously there's some overlap there.) The two wins in Big Ten openers were during the championship years of 2005 and 2008. What's the problem?

The problem has been that we're still including the 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004 seasons in those statistics. Penn State has had some terrible teams this decade, particularly those latter two, so we can't ignore that. During the seasons that Penn State has gone to a bowl game, the Lions are 7-6 in Big Ten openers, since joining the conference. It should also be noted the kinds of teams Penn State has been up against. Iowa went 11-1 in 2002 (L); Ohio State went 12-1 in 2006 (L); Michigan went 9-4, beating Florida in 2007 (L).

So, let's not kid ourselves. There is more to Penn State's Big Ten openers record than just the won-loss record. If the Nittany Lions opened with Indiana every Big Ten season, Penn State would have a 17-0 record in Big Ten openers. So you can't avoid looking past the numbers, and see what the true root causes are of Penn State's mediocre record in Big Ten openers... those teams just happen to be better than Penn State in that year.

4) Last week's blocked punt for an Iowa touchdown was the turning point in the game. Twice this decade a kickoff return touchdown has been critical in an Illinois victory over Penn State and the way things are going it could happen again Saturday. What's the problem with Penn State's "special" teams? Poor coaching? Lack of a dedicated special teams coach? Not getting our best athletes on the field?

I'm going to sound like Joe Paterno's press secretary, but as was said after the game and all this week, the blocked punt was just because Nick Sukay missed his assignment. The only thing that's been a problem for Penn State is that there haven't been great returns in favor of the Lions. The kickoffs are fine; the punts are fantastic; the blocking could be better, but haven't hurt this team outside of that one play; and the return coverage has improved significantly since the early games. There are many more critical things Penn State has to worry about going into Champaign this week. The special teams are serviceable right now, which is more than I can say for a few other units.

Quick Hitters...

The line is Penn State -7. Cover or no? No.
Are you going to the game? I'm poor.
True or false: Chief Illiniwek was retired as the Illinois mascot after protests by members of the Illiniwek tribe Falso.
Will Chicago be awarded the 2016 Olympics on Friday? Yes. (completely uneducated guess)