Preview: Iowa at No. 4/5 Penn State

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Sept. 26, 8:07 p.m. ET/ESPN on ABC (Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit and Lisa Salters)
Weather Forecast: Cool, showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads Iowa, 11-10

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 3-0 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Temple, 31-6
Injuries: LB Navorro Bowman (groin - possible), LB Sean Lee (knee - possible), LB Nate Stupar (ankle - questionable), DT Brandon Ware (ankle - out), DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle - out), FB Josh Matzkin (foot - out), DE Pete Massaro (ACL - out ssn), LB Mike Mauti (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, G Lou Eliades/Johnnie Troutman; (defense) DL Jared Odrick, CB D'Anton Lynn, LB Josh Hull
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 386-127-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 133.3 rush/264.0 pass/30.0 points per game
Defense - 46.3 rush/166.0 pass/6.7 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-0.67) per game

Penn State, on paper -- In any other season, Daryll Clark would be a bigger name in the Heisman race. Over three games, Clark has thrown for 760 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions, one coming off a tipped pass. If Clark continues at his current pace, he will smash all the school's quarterback records with 3292 yards 35 touchdowns. No small part of Clark's success this year has been due to the unexpected emergence of his wide receiving corps, which had to be completely replaced from a year ago. Derek Moye, Graham Zug and Chaz Powell have combined for 37 receptions, 474 yards and seven touchdowns.

But the real story so far on offense has been the shaky line play. The run game has taken three weeks to emerge, even with the best pair of running backs in the conference in the backfield. Only last week against Temple did Evan Royster finally break 100 yards (134, TD), but the overall production (180 yards) wasn't what fans were looking for. However, it was a significant jump from the first two games, when Akron and Syracuse completely sold out to stop the run.

Penn State could be without its two best players this week, as All-Americans Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman have been hampered this week by injuries. Joe Paterno said this week both could play, and Bowman should be able to return this week. Most players who have spoken about the situation indicated Lee would "have to be chained to the bench" to keep him from playing this week. Aside from the linebackers, Penn State's defensive line has managed to pull off the best three-game rush defense average in the Big Ten, and has been able to get into the backfield with little problem. The secondary hasn't been tested at all, but has done its job very well so far.

Visitor: Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 3-0 (0-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Arizona, 27-17
Injuries: LT Bryan Bulaga (possible), TE Tony Moeaki (possible), WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (possible), RB Jewel Hampton (out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Ricki Stanzi, WR Trey Stross, RB Adam Robinson; (defense) LB Pat Angerer, DB Tyler Sash, DB Brett Greenwood
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 11th season at UI, 73-53; 4-3 bowl record; 6-2 vs Penn State
Season Statistics:
Offense - 137.0 rush/237.3 pass/26.3 points per game
Defense - 140.0 rush/162.7 pass/12.0 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)/(+1) per game

Iowa, on paper -- Hawkeyes fans began the season with their stomachs already upset, with the news that projected starter RB Jewel Hampton was lost for the season. Things only got worse in week one. It took two consecutive field goal blocks to snatch victory from FCS Northern Iowa, as the Hawkeyes pulled it out 17-16. But since that game, Iowa has played excellent football, beating two BCS conference opponents in Iowa State and a decent Arizona team.

Ricki Stanzi, the quarterback who calmly led the Hawkeyes into field goal range in last season's upset of No. 3 Penn State, hasn't played lights-out this year, throwing five touchdowns to three interceptions. He's been helped by the emergence of two quality running backs, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher, who have combined for 380 yards and five scores. It shouldn't be difficult for Iowa to move the ball this season, no matter who's in the backfield. The Hawkeyes boast the best offensive line in the Big Ten, but that has taken a hit with the injury to star LT Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga should return this week, but it's still unclear.

The best offense is a great defense. Iowa has just that. Even after losing the best pair of defensive tackles in the nation a year ago. The defense overall hasn't lost a beat, particularly with guys like LB Pat Angerer and DL Karl Klug. But there have been two major chinks revealed in Iowa's defensive armor. The run defense has given up a disturbing 140 yards per game, and the defensive front seven have only registered four sacks over three games. Opponents have been able to get 4.6 yards per rush on the Hawkeyes.

On the field -- This is quickly growing into the fashionable upset pick of the week. I'm not buying into it. Penn State has been nearly unbeatable at home since 2004 (30-2), with the only losses coming against No. 4 Michigan (2006) and No. 1 Ohio State (2007). Atmosphere and crowd noise will never win games alone (both losses have come at night), but it can provide a significant edge to the home team. Iowa will try to pressure Clark as much as possible, especially since it's worked so well for the first three teams. Penn State hasn't given Clark a single designed run this season, but he's been given free reign by the coaches to do whatever it takes to win the game. His legs will come in handy this week, and provide a few really big plays on offense.

The Penn State defense is hands down better than any Iowa has faced so far, even with the possible voids at linebacker this week. As good as the Hawkeye offensive line has been, it's still given up eight sacks on the year. Penn State should be able to pressure Stanzi enough to force one or two big mistakes. This game will come down to the battle in the trenches; a battle in which Penn State has the upper hand, in talent and being at home.

Iowa could jump out to an early lead, or keep it scary-close for most of the game. But Penn State should wear down the Hawkeyes, and close out the win by the fourth quarter. That was something the Lions couldn't do in Iowa City last year. Evan Royster will return to the national stage with a big game, while Iowa's running backs will have trouble. A lot will depend on who returns from injuries. But if Ricki Stanzi gets back some of his missing playmakers, look for him to put up pretty impressive numbers. Again, because of those injuries, this could be the toughest game to pick so far this season.

Extra points -- It will be a full stadium WhiteOut this weekend, with the clever catch phrase "welcome to the White House"... Penn State led the series 10-4 until 2000, when Iowa went on a 6-1 run to close the gap... One of the most memorable Big Ten openers for Penn State, and later college football as a whole, was the 2002 loss to the Hawkeyes, in which two blown calls angered Joe Paterno so much, he chased after ref crew chief Dick Honig. It's been called the spark that led to replay in college... Iowa's last trip to Beaver Stadium was a 27-7 blowout loss... Attendance: 109,210

Prediction: No. 4/5 Penn State, 30 - Iowa, 20