Preview: No. 12 Penn State at Northwestern

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 31, 4:30 p.m. ET/ESPN (Carter Blackburn and Chris Spielman)
Weather Forecast: Cool, breezy.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 9-3.

Host: Northwestern Wildcats
Record: 5-3 (2-2, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Indiana, 29-28
Injuries: CB Sherrick McManis (leg) - possible; RB Stephen Simmons (ankle) - doubtful; S Brendan Smith (thumb) - possible; OL Mike Boyle (back) - out; LB Bryce McNaul (knee) - out; DT Jack DiNardo (shoulder) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Mike Kafka, WR Zeke Markshausen, WR Andrew Brewer; (defense) LB Quentin Davie, LB Nate Williams, CB Sherrick McManis
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald, 4th season, 24-21; 0-1 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 122.2 rush/270.4 pass/27.2 points per game
Defense - 117.9 rush/220.2 pass/23.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)/(+0.12) per game

Northwestern, on paper -- This was supposed to be the season for Northwestern. The Wildcats were coming off a nine-win season, topped off by the hard-fought overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl. But 2009 hasn't had the good fortune many hoped to see. The Cats have had to earn every one of their five wins coming into this week. Most of Northwestern's issues have come from injuries at key positions. Fourth-string running back Scott Concannon is expected to get the start this week, while 2008 All-American end Corey Wootton hasn't been the same since breaking his ankle in the bowl game. Consider this year's Northwestern squad the definition of snake-bitten.

It hasn't been all doom and gloom in Evanston, at least in the passing game. Senior QB Mike Kafka is one of the most dynamic signal callers in the Big Ten, yet one of the most underrated. Kafka leads the league in total offense per game (284.1) and pass yards per game (258.4). The Wildcats have also been great in the clutch the last four weeks, pulling out fantastic comebacks against Purdue and Indiana, the latter being the most astounding from a 28-3 deficit. Northwestern is a perfect example of one-dimensional offensive football, ranking No. 2 in pass yards per game, yet No. 10 in rush yards per game. But if one thing worries the purple-clad folks, it's turnovers. Northwestern has given away 17 total, good for fourth-worst in the Big Ten. At this stage in the season, Northwestern could be, offensively, the most unpredictable, yet dangerous team in the conference.

The defense has been a different story, though, as injuries stringing all the way back to 2008 have gutted this unit to a nearly unrecognizable state. It all started with Wootton's ankle injury and subsequent surgery. Earlier this week, Lake The Posts said, "Wootton is a shadow of his former self." The loss of such a dynamic talent along the front line has also taken a toll on what was expected to be a really good secondary this season. The Cats lost safety Sherrick McManis last week, forcing little-used Ricky Weina in for the entire second half. Northwestern's pass defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.3 percent of their passes, tenth-worst in the conference this season. But for all the defensive shortcomings so far, the Cats are tied with Penn State for third in the conference in interceptions (10), and are also tied with Indiana for third in total turnovers gained (18).

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 7-1 (3-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Michigan, 35-10
Injuries: LB Sean Lee (knee) - probable; RB Stephfon Green (ankle) - doubtful; TB Brent Carter (knee) - probable; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - probable; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 390-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 184.4 rush/243.8 pass/30.2 points per game
Defense - 79.8 rush/160.5 pass/8.9 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)/(+0.37) per game

Penn State, on paper -- In last week's preview, I predicted that Michigan would not only allow the most points in a game thus far, but that the Wolverines would be held to their lowest point output of the year. I was dead right on both, as Penn State pummeled Michigan in the Big House. This Nittany Lions team has grown stronger each week since the Iowa loss back in September. One could even argue that Penn State is, right now, the most impressive team in the Big Ten. The scoring offense is second in the league behind Michigan (33 ppg), but the total offense (No. 1 Big Ten) is cranking out nearly 30 more yards per game than the Wolverines. And this hasn't been some fluky, short-field via turnovers scoring offense. Penn State has frequently marched the ball from its own territory into the end zone. But the turnover factor has been a big part of Penn State's success of late, as in the Lions have turned the ball over only twice in four games, with no giveaways at Michigan. Daryll Clark as been ruthlessly efficient during his team's winning streak, tossing eight touchdowns to only one pick. He can thank a vastly improved offensive line, and an increasingly powerful running game.

As much has been made about Penn State's offensive production, it's the defense that has stolen the show. The Nittany Lions jumped Florida as the No. 1 scoring defense in college football, and are allowing 44 yards and six touchdowns fewer than the Big Ten's No. 2 defense, Ohio State (284.8 ypg, 10 TD). Hell, even in the loss to Iowa, only 12 of the Hawkeyes 21 points came against the Lions' defense. This season has been a defensive masterpiece by coach Tom Bradley, who should be on everyone's short list for the Broyles Award for top assistant in college football. Penn State came into this season having lost seven defensive starters from a 2008 unit that allowed 14.4 points per game. So how are things going this season? Well, Penn State's defense is having its best season this decade, and if it's kept up until the end, one of its best seasons in the Joe Paterno era.

However, this late in the season, most teams have suffered from the injury bug, and Penn State hasn't been immune. The right tackle situation has been erratic at best, with third-stringer Ako Poti getting the start the last two weeks. All-America candidates Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman have only recently been able to get on the field at the same time, as Lee in particular has been hampered by a strained knee. Now, it appears Stephfon Green, the "two" in Penn State's one-two running attack, won't be ready to go for a while due to a bad ankle. I wouldn't go so far to say this team is beat up, but the injuries have, and could, cause some problems during the home stretch of the schedule.

On the field -- Northwestern usually gets up for Penn State, actually pouncing on the Lions for a two-game win streak in 2003-04. While I like what Pat Fitzgerald is doing in Evanston, this year's Cats probably don't have enough in the tank to pull off an epic upset this week. Penn State had little problem shutting down the top offense in the Big Ten, and even though Northwestern has a great senior quarterback and playmaking wide receivers, the lack of a running game will doom the Wildcats in this one. The Nittany Lions' defensive front seven can get pressure on a quarterback and stuff the run with just five rushing, but it might not even require that much this week. Penn State should be able to rush four and focus on blitzing for pass rush purposes only, while dropping six and seven back into coverage. Northwestern is one of those dink-and-dunk passing games, which Penn State feeds off of, not allowing any substantial yards after catch.

For Penn State's offense, it should end up coming down to holding onto the ball and not settling for field goals. The past few weeks, Penn State hasn't been its usual conservative self on the road, so I'm not expecting that to change now. Michigan had some success slowing down the Nittany Lions running game, but not enough. Northwestern could frustrate Penn State for a while, at least through the first quarter. That's where Clark comes in, against a suspect Northwestern secondary. Sherrick McManis leads the Cats in interceptions (3), but is hampered by an injury and might not have the kind of impact he would have without the injury. If Northwestern can't force Penn State into a few miscues at key junctures in this game, I just don't see the upset happening.

Extra points Penn State will jump out to a substantial lead, but Northwestern will creep back into the game before halftime... Daryll Clark will throw for at least two scores, but an interception, too... Corey Wootton will play his best game of the season, catching many off guard... Mike Kafka will lead the Wildcats in rushing... Penn State is only 4-2 vs NU this decade... Penn State's last trip to Evanston became an instant classic, comeback win that propelled the Lions to the Big Ten title... Attendance prediction: 21,310

Prediction: No. 12 Penn State, 34 - Northwestern, 13