Preview: No. 13/15 Penn State at Illinois

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET/ESPN or ABC (Mike Patrick, Craig James and Heather Cox)
Weather Forecast: Cool, showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads Illinois, 13-3

Host: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 1-2 (0-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Ohio St, 30-0
Injuries: LB Martez Wilson (neck - out ssn), CB Miami Thomas (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn; (defense) DE Clay Nurse, DB Tavon Wilson, DE Corey Liuget
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 5th season at UI, 19-32; 0-1 bowl record; 8th season overall, 42-46; 1-3 vs Penn State
Season Statistics:
Offense - 192.0 rush/155.7 pass/18.0 points per game
Defense - 132.3 rush/253.7 pass/28.0 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-0.67) per game

Illinois, on paper -- Last week's game at Ohio State really skewed Illinois' statistics, as the Buckeyes did not attempt a pass before halftime, and only 13 after the break. Even with the 82 allowed passing yards to Terrelle Pryor, the Illini are still giving up an average of 254 pass yards per game. But in Columbus, the defense wasn't at all helped out by the offense, which imploded as the game went on. Illinois finished with 170 total yards, and only four completions to Arrelious Benn for a mere 33 yards. The Illini have played a very difficult schedule so far this season, even with the Illinois State game on there. Missouri has turned out to be much better than anyone anticipated, and Ohio State looks like it could run the table after nearly defeating USC. The most anyone can say about this Illini team is that we don't really know what kind of team they are, even after three games.

Many in Illini country have pointed to a shift in offensive philosophy this season under new coordinator Mike Schultz as the reason for the inconsistency on that side of the ball. While Illinois still third in the conference in rushing per game, most of that was piled on in the Illinois State win. Juice Williams use to be asked to run the zone-read runs and down-field bombs. Now he's asked to run a more West Coast offense, with shorter, accurate passes. That's not what he's built to do. Just look at his last two trips to Columbus, and you'll see the difference.

On defense, Illinois has struggled mightily the last two seasons. Add in the loss this year of star LB Martez Wilson, and this unit is in serious need of some stability. Illinois has only totaled four sacks this season, and is allowing opponents to score on 90 percent of all red zone trips, including seven touchdowns in 10 attempts. Worse, opponents are converting 47 percent of all third downs against the Illini. This is still a dangerous team with a lot of talent, but without any sort of breather to regain its composure, Illinois could struggle for a while longer this season.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 3-1 (0-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Iowa, 21-10
Injuries: LB Navorro Bowman (groin - probable), LB Sean Lee (knee - possible), LB Nate Stupar (ankle - possible), DT Brandon Ware (ankle - out), DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle - out), FB Josh Matzkin (foot - out), DE Pete Massaro (ACL - out ssn), LB Mike Mauti (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) The entire offensive line; (defense) DL Jared Odrick, CB D'Anton Lynn, LB Josh Hull
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 386-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 127.2 rush/247.5 pass/25.0 points per game
Defense - 75.5 rush/158.2 pass/10.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-4)/(-1) per game

Penn State, on paper -- The Nittany Lions are dead last in Big Ten turnover margin, a statistic that screams loudly when looking at Penn State's loss to Iowa last week. The five turnovers -- counting the blocked punt for a touchdowns -- made all the difference in the game, particularly considering Penn State's defense played well enough to win without the offense working against itself.

As has been the case most of the season so far, the Penn State offense hasn't been able to move the ball at will against even inferior opponents. Most of the Lions' offensive woes have been a direct consequence of sub-par line play. Penn State's offensive line has struggled in one facet or another in every game this year, whether it be run blocking against Akron and Syracuse, or pass protection against Temple and Iowa. Two linemen so far have lost their starting jobs; LG Matt Stankiewitch was replaced by Johnnie Troutman before the Temple game, and DeOn'tae Pannell was pulled from RT during the Iowa debacle, with Nerraw McCormack coming in and probably starting this week. Nearly every question mark going into the season has been answered, from the secondary to the receivers, except for the offensive line. If Penn State can't get it together here, it could be a season full of performances like that against Iowa.

The defense, probably the second-biggest question mark heading into the season, has performed well beyond expectations, particularly in a losing effort last week. The defensive line has been able to stuff the run, leading the conference in rush defense (75.5 ypg). The entire front seven has combined to lead the conference in sacks (12). While the secondary is leading the conference in yards allowed and has a superb TD/INT ratio at 2-5. The Penn State defense currently leads the Big Ten in run defense, pass defense, total defense, sacks, first downs allowed, 3rd down conversions allowed, 4th down conversions allowed, red zone scoring percentage, and tied for first with Iowa for total touchdowns allowed. Not all bad for a unit that had to replace four senior starters in the backfield, a first-team All-America defensive end, and two other veteran defensive ends.

On the field -- While the Penn State offense will garner much of the attention this weekend from analysts and fans, it could be the defense that makes or breaks the Nittany Lions in Champaign. Illinois has consistently put up big offensive numbers the last three meetings, and could very well do it again. If Penn State can take a few pointers from what the Ohio State-Illinois tape shows, the Lions have a great chance to shut down a potentially potent Illini attack. But for both offenses, it will be all about the turnover margin in this game. The team that commits the most mistakes, as in any game, will have a serious chance to lose this one. For Penn State, it will be efficiency in the red zone and pass protection for Daryll Clark. For Illinois, it will be staying on the field to keep Penn State's offense on the bench.

But the defenses aren't nearly close to each other in terms of production and talent. Penn State has been able to reload the past few years, rather than completely rebuild, something Illinois doesn't have the luxury of doing. This could turn out to be a sloppy, dreadful game for both teams, but I just don't see Illinois as having the firepower on offense, or the speed on defense to come out on top.

Extra points -- Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has only lost twice to Illinois, both times in Champaign... The PSU-UI series has borne many memorable moments in Nittany Lions' history, including the "LaVar Leap" in 1998 and "The Drive" in 1994... Penn State's last trip to Memorial Stadium was a 27-20 loss... Attendance prediction: 62,400

Prediction: No. 13/15 Penn State, 27 - Illinois, 23