Captial One Bowl Preview: No. 13 Penn State vs No. 12 Louisiana State

Kickoff/TV: Friday, January 1, 2010; 1 p.m. ET/ABC (Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge and Erin Andrews)
Weather Forecast: Scattered showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 1-0.

Host: Louisiana State Tigers
Record: 9-3 (5-3, SEC)
Last Game: Beat Arkansas, 33-30(OT)
Injuries: RB Charles Scott (clavicle) - out for season; RB Keiland Williams (ankle) - out for season; RB Richard Murphy (knee) - out for season; WR RJ Jackson (foot) - out; DT Akiem Hicks (undisclosed) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Trindon Holliday, WR Brandon LaFell; (defense) LB Kelvin Sheppard, CB Patrick Peterson, DT Drake Nevis
Head Coach: Les Miles, 5th season at LSU, 51-14; 9th season overall, 79-35; 5-2 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 129.6 rush/180.1 pass/25.5 points per game
Defense - 134.2 rush/192.4 pass/16.0 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)/(0.58) per game

Louisiana State, on paper -- For a team that has been out gained by 16 yards per game this season, the Tigers are quite fortunate to have reached nine wins. Louisiana State has lived off of its fantastic turnover margin (+7), and ability to start offensive drives with short fields, courtesy of probably the best return game in the nation (18.6 yds per punt return). That stat will be sure to strike fear into Penn State, particularly since speedster Trindon Holliday isn't the only one responsible for LSU's punt return success; Holliday averages 17.7 yards on 18 returns and one touchdown, while Chad Jones also added a score to his 21.5 yards per return on six attempts. But that's about as explosive as this LSU team has been in 2009.

Defensively, the Tigers have been stout, but not nearly as transmittable as in recent seasons. In the five seasons previous to 2009, LSU ranked 17th, 12th, 14th, 6th, and 7th in rush defense; the Tigers rank 44th coming into this game. LSU has given up more than 23 points on five different occasions this year, including 26 to Mississippi State and 30 in overtime to Arkansas in the season finale. The Tigers have plenty of talent on this side of the ball, but are definitely pregnable.

Going from decent to just plain mediocre, the LSU offense struggled in 2009 to just break 300 yards per game. Injuries were a huge factor in the lack of production, as the Tigers lost their top two running backs before the end of the season. With a lack of a run game, and an already shaky offensive line (Jordan Jefferson has been sacked 24 times), opposing defenses have been able to tee off on the Tigers' passing game.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Michigan State, 42-14
Injuries: RB Brandon Beachum (ACL) - out for season; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (n/a) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 393-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 173.6 rush/238.9 pass/29.7 points per game
Defense - 93.9 rush/183.2 pass/11.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)/(0.25) per game

Penn State, on paper -- The Lions are a good team, but most definitely not a great one. Penn State beat the teams it should have. In another fantastic job done by defensive coordinator Tom Bradley, the defense has posted its best statistical season in years, even with the loss of three defensive ends (one All-American) and four senior starters in the secondary from last season. The linebackers have been banged up this year, as Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman didn't play a full game together until mid-way through the season. Had both been healthy all year, one or both would have been given All-America recognition. Even in losses to Iowa and Ohio State, the Penn State defense held its own, even in the face of short fields and a sometimes anemic Lions offense.

On that offensive side of the ball, Penn State had some fantastic games this season (Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State), but also some putrid outings (Iowa, Ohio State). Against good defensive fronts, the Nittany Lions had trouble containing opponents' pass and run blitzes. That left Daryll Clark with little time to throw, and Evan Royster even less room to run. Much of the offensive woes have been centered around the constantly changing offensive line, which saw three different players at right tackle, and two different at left guard over the course of 2009. Yet, some bright spots have emerged for Penn State, specifically in the wide receivers and tight ends. Derek Moye has become a go-to guy on the outside, while Andrew Quarless finally played like the tight end everyone was hoping for the previous three seasons. Penn State will be looking to give Clark more than two seconds to throw.

Of course, none of that matters if the special teams break down, as they did in dramatic fashion against Iowa and Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were able to score on a blocked punt, and kept Penn State pinned deep in its own territory all game long, leading to a momentum-swinging safety. The Buckeyes tore apart Penn State's coverage teams, virtually winning the game solely on field position. The Nittany Lions should not be relied upon to win any game this season on field position.

On the field -- Penn State and LSU match up very well on both sides of the ball, with the slight edge to Penn State's defense over the Tigers' offense. I could totally see the Lions' front seven harass Jefferson into several mistakes, while Clark and the PSU offense should be able to move the ball well enough to score some points in this one. But if there's one glaring weakness in this year's Penn State team, it's the special teams and return coverage. How does a team like LSU win nine games while being out gained by 16 yards per game? Field position. That matchup scares the crap out of me. However...

The turf could be even scarier for both teams. Bad weather, combined with several football games in the Citrus Bowl this week alone, has left the field in horrid, if not dangerous condition. For a team like LSU, which relies solely on a speed player like Holliday, a chippy field could spell doom. One slip could ruin what should have been a big punt return, which could ruin LSU's chances for victory. Penn State doesn't rely on one specific facet of the game to win. With a healthy stable of running backs, and a defense that might be better than the Tigers' unit, the Lions should have enough in the tank to sneak out of Orlando with a much-needed Big Ten win over the SEC.

Prediction: No. 13 Penn State, 24 - No. 12 LSU, 20