No. 25 Penn State at Indiana, Preview

School: Indiana University (IU), Hoosiers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 5-2 overall
Last Game: Lost to Michigan State, 52-27
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 22-47 overall; 0-0 in bowls; 16-10 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DE Greg Middleton, CB Tracy Porter, LB Will Patterson

Key Players, Offense: QB Kellen Lewis, WR James Hardy, K Austin Starr

What to look for: D – Everyone has been raving about IU’s ability to rush the passer, leading the nation with 32 sacks. However, it doesn’t matter how many sacks you get when you give up a 20-yard play on the next down. IU is giving up 385 yards and 25.3 points per game. Those aren’t good numbers with PSU coming. The one chance IU has in this game is to get Middleton going. He is second in the nation with 9.5 sacks (-61). It may not be so easy, as PSU’s O-line has come on recently. The IU run defense hasn’t been the same the last few weeks, giving up more than 150 ypg. If IU wants to stop the run, they will send LBs Patterson and Adam McClurg on run blitzes. But IU’s undersized D-line could have problems shedding their blocks. Don’t underestimate IU’s pass defense hasn’t been great, but if they can get a few turnovers (which PSU gives away often on the road), the defense can keep points off the board, and that’s all that will matter in this game.

O – IU can pull off the big one here. Lewis is a playmaker, and has another playmaker to throw to in Hardy. They were the only two to do anything against MSU last week. The real reason for IU’s offensive woes LW was because MSU held the ball for 41 minutes. This team relies on the offense to win games, and if Lewis and Hardy have a big play or two, PSU might get nervous. When the QB is your best runner, there’s problem. Many of Lewis’ runs have come on rollouts or scrambles. A team can only survive so long on those plays. PSU is very good at containing mobile/option QBs, so if IU wants to have any sort of ball control, they need to run with RBs Marcus Thigpen or Bryan Payton a few plays. But I have a strong feeling this game will come down to IU airing it out, looking for the big plays, unable to run the ball.

ST – Starr has been just that, nailing 14/15 field goals in 2007. He could be IU’s only chance to get on the board, leading the team with a whopping 71 points in only seven games. P Michael Hines, while not impressive at 38 yard per punt, has been effective at not allowing returns with a 34-yard net average. KR/RB Thigpen returned three KOs for TDs in 2006, but hasn’t gotten rolling in 2007. Illinois’ win was sparked when WR Arrelious Benn took a KO for a TD, and IU could use the same against PSU.

C – While South Florida is the best on-field story; the best off-field story is IU’s Bill Lynch. He’s taken a team, after their head coach tragically died from a brain tumor this summer, to a place IU fans have only dreamed about for 13 years–bowl eligibility. At 5-2, this could be the best coaching job in the Big Ten. (Shut up Illinois fans) While this game won’t be the most memorable, the season will be come December, when IU is playing somewhere warmer than Memorial Stadium.

Interesting Stat: IU hasn’t had a winning season since 1994. (No bowl invitation)

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 368-123-3
Last Game: Def. No. 18 Wisconsin, 38-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, LB Sean Lee, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – This week will be tougher on the defense than people think. While PSU had little problem with Ilinois’ QB Juice Williams (it was the other players than hurt PSU), IU’s Lewis is a much better passer. DEs Evans and Josh Gaines have to get to Lewis quickly for the pass rush to be effective. Coverage sacks are for pro-style QBs, not a runner like Lewis. But that run threat can’t be the main focus this week for the back seven. PSU likes to blitz, but watch for fewer defenders coming, as the LBs will frequently drop back into zones and spy coverage. Over the last few games, LB Lee has outplayed Connor. But that’s not a bad thing. One of those two may not have such a great game this week, but no one will notice because the rest of the defense will step up. It was nice to finally see S Anthony Scirrotto make a big impact in last week’s game. Watch for the PSU secondary to be hungry once again.

O – Now, was that really QB Morelli? Playing away from Beaver Stadium has been PSU’s kryptonite since 2000, and the valuable lessons learned from Illinois and Michigan must be applied this week: No turnovers, No bad penalties. I can’t remember the last time Morelli looked so calm and collected in the pocket (or even on the rollouts) as he did last week. The passing game has to be used this week to set up the run again. WR Williams has to become more of a factor against a defense that isn’t as good as Wisconsin’s or Iowa’s. But if he doesn’t, any of the other WRs should fill in nicely again. There’s no reason PSU won’t run the ball well on IU; it just won’t be the first choice. RB Kinlaw has been the story; I don’t care what Morelli has done. It’s been Kinlaw who’s stepped up and surprised many. This week he should see a lot of carries in the second and third quarters, before RB Evan Royster gets some snaps in. Watch for another 200+ PSU rushing game.

ST – The special teams play last week was actually the only disappointment in the win, coming from Williams’ fumble on the punt return. But, in the overall scheme of things, it was a good game. This week, IU’s Thigpen is dangerous on KRs, and PSU has been suspect in that area. Staying in coverage lanes is essential this week.

C – What? PSU found a weakness in the opposing defense? And exploited it? No way. Way! The Wisconsin win was easily the best coaching job done by PSU in a long time. Really, it wasn’t just that PSU had better talent–UW is a good team. It was that PSU out play-called UW. If PSU plays it safe again on the road, this will be an ugly win. If PSU calls another game like either of the last two, this will be a monstrous blowout.

Interesting Stat: PSU has allowed 12 TDs in its last 13 games.

GAME PREDICTION: IU will come out of the tunnel jacked up and ready to go. That will all change on the first few drives. PSU will force three consecutive three-and-outs by IU. After stalling on their first drive and settling for a FG, PSU will turn around and score two quick TDs from good field position. 17-0 PSU. Going into the second half, IU will drive the ball, but miss a FG, giving momentum back to PSU. Kinlaw will have 100 yards by the mid-third quarter. Enter Royster. He rips a big one for at least 45 yards, putting PSU up 31-0. Backups are in by the fourth. IU will finish with 250 yards of offense, but most of that will come directly from Lewis. PSU will roll for 500+ yards, 250+ on the ground. Morelli throws a pick deep in PSU territory, but later reviewed and called incomplete, killing any chance of an IU comeback before the half.

PSU 45, IU 3

VEGAS:

PSU (-7.5) IU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 36, IU 31