Preview: Temple at No. 5/t5 Penn State

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Sept. 19, 12 p.m. ET/Big Ten Network (Ari Wolfe, Anthony Herron and Kenny Jackson)
Weather Forecast: Mild, clear.
Series Record: Penn State leads Temple, 34-3-1

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 2-0 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Syracuse, 28-7
Injuries: LB Navorro Bowman (Groin - Questionable), DT Brandon Ware (Ankle - Out), DB Jacob Fagnano (Ankle - Out), DE Pete Massaro (ACL - Out Ssn), LB Mike Mauti (ACL - Out Ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DL Jared Odrick, LB Sean Lee, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 385-127-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 107.0 rush/309.5 pass/29.5.0 points per game
Defense - 46.5 rush/146.5 pass/7.0 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-1) per game

Penn State, on paper -- The Nittany Lions' run game, or lack thereof, has become the dominant issue the last two weeks. Coupled with the probable shifts in the offensive line this week, all eyes will be keyed in on how the ground game improves, if at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see real unrest begin to set in with Joe Paterno if the Lions fail to top 100 rush yards against Temple. So far, he's downplayed it, as any head coach should.

Then again, Paterno also said this week that as long as Penn State continues to win games, he's fine with passing more than running. That's good, considering Penn State boasts one of the most efficient pass attacks in the conference. QB Daryll Clark has been on fire, even with the new set of receivers, throwing for 300 yards per game, with a 6-2 ratio and 70 percent completion percentage. But should Penn State take a comfortable lead against Temple, look for a concerted effort to work out the run game with Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, as both have struggled mightily behind a shaky line and defenses stacked to stop them.

Defensively, Penn State has been nothing less than dominant. Both touchdowns allowed this season by the defense have followed turnovers by the Lions' offense, while the unit is giving up less than 200 yards per game. Paterno said this week he wants to see more turnovers generated by the defense, so we might see some more stripping and interception attempts against Temple.

Visitor: Temple Owls
Record: 0-1 (0-0, MAC)
Last Game: Lost vs Villanova (FCS), 27-24
Injuries: The Owls don’t announce most injury information, but no one was seen leaving the game for any physical reason.
Key Players: (offense) QB Vaughn Charlton, WR Michael Campbell, RB Kee-Ayre Griffin ; (defense) LB Amara Kamara, NT Andre Neblett, LB Alex Joseph
Head Coach: Al Golden, 4th season at TU, 10-27; 0-0 bowl record; 0-3 vs Penn State
Season Statistics:
Offense - 139.0 rush/317.0 pass/24.0 points per game
Defense - 64.0 rush/293.0 pass/27.0 points per game
TO Margin - (-4)/(-4) per game

Temple, on paper -- The Owls just can't catch a break, losing yet another game on the final play. Three times in 2008 Temple lost on the final play of the game. The upset loss last week to Villanova was mainly due to a bad case of turnovers (minus-4), but Temple did dominate in most other facets of the game. So, it's important for opponents to not underestimate this Owls team, as it's still probably the best team Temple's fielded in more than a decade.

QB Vaughn Charlton's fantastic game was marred by his three interceptions, including one that led to Nova's game-winning field goal. He was able to hook up with a good number of different receivers, including Michael Campbell, who hauled in five for 93 yards and a score. But the pass game isn't the only weapon on the Temple offense. RB Kee-Ayre Griffin carried the rock 21 times for 70 yards and a score last week, but probably more worrisome to the Penn State coaching staff, he also took a kickoff back 54 yards against Villanova. Paterno said this week he was very disappointed and concerned with the Lions' kickoff coverage the last two weeks.

On the defensive side, Temple is loaded with playmakers, even with the loss of DE Junior Galette (10 sacks in '07), who transferred this off season for disciplinary issues. Against Villanova, Temple logged five sacks and 11 TFL. S Dominique Harris has been a force in the Owls defensive backfield for years, while LB Amara Kamara led the team in tackles last week, nine of which were solo stops. Don't be shocked if Temple follows Penn State's first two opponents' lead, and stacks the box against the run with these two. And keep an eye on NT Andre Neblett up the middle of that defense.

On the field -- Penn State will beat Temple. But by how much the Owls are beaten is basically up to Al Golden's crew. If Temple turns the ball over like they did last week, this will be another laugher in Happy Valley. But if the Owls can hold on to the ball, and keep the Lions' offense off the field as much as possible, this could be another uncomfortable win for Penn State. The series hasn't exactly been competitive recently, with Penn State outscoring Temple 123-3 the last three outings. The field should be drier than it was for the Syracuse game, so it'll be a fast track for both teams, but I'll give an edge to Penn State for overall team speed. Penn State should be able to get those turnovers Paterno wants, mainly by forcing Charlton to throw before he wants to, and this game will be decided no later than the mid-third quarter.

Extra points -- Continuing its corny themed game days, Penn State declared this weekend "Favorite Jersey Day"... Beaver Stadium will once again fail to fill out completely, even with the extra fans from Philadelphia... Evan Royster will finally top 100 yards... Daryll Clark won't throw an interception... The defensive line will force at least two turnovers on its own, and log at least two sacks... A starting defensive back will pick off a pass... Temple won't score a touchdown for the third straight year... If Josh Hull's mustache hasn't become legend already, it will be by this weekend... Attendance: 106,900

Prediction: No. 5/t5 Penn State, 41 - Temple, 6

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Preview: 2009 BCS Championship Game

No. 2 Florida vs. No. 1 Oklahoma

Florida

The Question on Everyone's Mind: Can the SEC make it three in a row?

The Answer to Everyone's question: Probably, but it's definitely a level playing field this time. In 2008, Ohio State backed into the title game, getting there only due to mammoth upsets in late November and early December. LSU was No. 1 several times during the season, and wasn't given enough credit going into the game. In 2007, Ohio State had the now-famous "50 days" from its last game until the title game, while Florida was a very underrated team. This year, Oklahoma has played a game as recently as Florida, and is just as good (on paper) as the Gators. This should be a good test for both Florida and Oklahoma.

How the Gators can win: Get to Sam Bradford. Teams all year had difficulty putting pressure on the Heisman winner, while all he needs is that split second longer to make a killer throw. Florida has to jam the Sooners' receivers, while forcing Bradford to throw sooner than he wants to, and that's no small task. I have confidence that Tim Tebow and the offense will score enough points to keep pace with Oklahoma, but if the Gators' defense can't slow the Sooner attack, this will turn into a shootout. On top of all that, Oklahoma will be without Demarco Murray, the team's leading rusher. So Florida should tee off on the one-dimensional offense.

Oklahoma

The Question on Everyone's Mind: Is the Big XII a fraud?

The Answer to Everyone's question: Again, probably. I'm still giving the edge to Oklahoma, but that's only because I think Florida's defense has had trouble with good offenses. Oklahoma's is very, very good. However, the Big XII's bowl outing this season has been more embarrassing than the Big Ten's, but no one seems to care. This was labeled as the absolute best conference this year, but has seen its best teams struggle mightily against inferior competition. Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas played terrible games against only mediocre teams. But Oklahoma could throw a wrench into that perception by beating Florida.

How the Sooners can win: Bomb away. Who cares if Bradford throws an interception, or there's a fumble? Oklahoma is fielding the most prolific offense we've seen in a long time, and the scary part of it is that it's under the pro-style scheme. Alabama was able to push around the Florida defensive front. Oklahoma's line is even better, if not the best and biggest in the country. The Sooners need to use that. Get a few quick scores, and force Florida into comeback mode. That's not to say Oklahoma should play keep away, but if the Sooners can make Tim Tebow throw more than run, and get the ball down-field, the nation's leader in turnover margin will have plenty to feed on. Considering that points might come easily in this game for both teams, Oklahoma has the early advantage. Keep Bradford upright for at least 2.5 seconds per dropback, and the Sooners win.

Predictions

What will happen: I expect both teams to come out strong, but a little sloppy. Florida will probably take a lead into the locker room, but it won't feel comfortable. Alabama led Florida at the half, but we all knew the Gators were ready to pounce. Oklahoma will try to run the ball early, but find that it's much easier to throw. Bradford will throw for a pedestrian 250 yards, but make the important plays when needed. Tebow will outplay Bradford, raising doubts as to which quarterback should have won the Heisman. But Oklahoma will settle down and take advantage of its size and talent up front to muscle its way to the BCS championship.

Score: Oklahoma 36, Florida 29

**The poll (below the posts) will be open only until the game starts, so get those votes in!

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Preview: 2009 Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Texas

Texas

The Question on Everyone's Mind: Can Texas really do enough?

The Answer to Everyone's question: Not really. The only way Texas can impress the voters into a few No. 1 votes, is if the BCS Championship Game devolves into a sloppy, mistake-laden, 6-3 snoozer. That's not going to happen. Texas could beat Ohio State 63-0, but there's relatively no chance to break the BCS this year.

How the Longhorns can win: Just play their game. Remember (as if anyone will ever forget), 45-35! Texas is only playing in the Fiesta Bowl because the planets aligned for Texas Tech, for one second, on Nov. 1. Outside of that, the Longhorns were the most impressive team from top to bottom. There are plenty of tools on both sides of the ball to beat up on Ohio State, starting and ending with Colt McCoy and Brian Orakpo. Texas should be able to contain Chris Wells, and take advantage of a sketchy Buckeyes offensive line, just enough to win this one comfortably. And while the offense hasn't had a consistent running threat outside of McCoy, it can cause enough problems for the Ohio State defense to keep this one out of the Buckeyes' reach.

Ohio State

The Question on Everyone's Mind: Ok, how about now?

The Answer to Everyone's question: No, not yet, but almost. Ohio State said last year would be different. The Florida loss was just a bunch of snowballing problems, which led to the massive letdown in the championship game. The Buckeyes would be ready for LSU. Not so much. Then came the trip to Los Angeles. This time, no Beanie and a bad quarterbacking situation. Ohio State probably can't beat Texas in this, the fourth round of "yes, we can," but coming close would prove a lot.

How the Buckeyes can win: Well, in case anyone's forgotten, Ohio State is starting more than a few NFL Draft picks on defense. And Texas hasn't faced one like this all season. Terrelle Pryor will have to come up with a (dare I say it) Vince Young-like performance to keep the offense moving, but that could be a tall task for even an experienced quarterback. I have a sneaky feeling that the Ohio State defense will show up hungry and angry tonight, and prevent Texas from lighting things up the way most think. Colt McCoy had plenty of trouble against the active Texas Tech defensive front, and while Ohio State hasn't been super up front, the secondary is better than anything in the Big XII this year, which could make up for any lack of pass rush.

Predictions

What will happen: Figure that this game will look like a watered-down version of the Rose Bowl. Ohio State will hang tough, but a few big plays by McCoy will be just too much to overcome on offense. Texas won't hang 31 on the Buckeyes before the half, but it won't look good.

Score: Texas 26, Ohio State 17

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Preview: The Rose Bowl, No. 8 Penn State at No. 5 Southern California

Kickoff: Thurs., Jan. 1. 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Weather Forecast: Sunny, Warm, Clear.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 11-1 (7-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Michigan St, 49-18
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QB Daryll Clark, C AQ Shipley; (defense) DE Aaron Maybin, LB Navorro Bowman, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 383-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 211.6 rush/240.6 pass/40.2 points per game
Defense - 95.9 rush/168 pass/12.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- The hype machine is in full force, and that's a good thing for Penn State. It is usually when the media tells these Nittany Lions that they have no chance to win, that they go right out there and prove everyone wrong. Ohio State 2005? No chance. Tennessee 2006? No chance. Ohio State 2008? No chance. All... wrong! But when it comes to on-the-field factors, Penn State hasn't had a passing attack like this since Kerry Collins was torching opponents with Bobby Engram and Kyle Brady. Only, this time, Daryll Clark has the three best (statistically, at least) wide receivers in Penn State history, and an offensive line just as good as the 1994 edition. Top all of that with Clark's mobility, and the Lions have all the tool necessary to hang around with, and even beat the best defense in college football. I've heard all week (and all month, too) that Clark is a liability because he hasn't led a fourth-quarter comeback drive. But I haven't exactly seen USC do that either, as most of their games are well in hand by the final stanza. Can Mark Sanchez lead a fourth-quarter comeback drive? He had a chance, at Oregon State, but blew it, just like Clark at Iowa. That's not to say Penn State is all passing, as Evan Royster has been hands-down the most underrated running back this season. No defense will tackle him on the first hit, and once he's in the open field, it's 30 yards and a cloud of dust.

Penn State has also been every bit as good on defense as the Trojans have this season. What most analysts aren't looking at, is the level of competition USC has faced. Any team with a defense like USC's or PSU's could shut out Washington and Washington State, two of the worst teams in the FBS. It's not like the Penn State defense is mediocre this season. The analysts would lead you to believe that the Nittany Lions are less than impressive on that side of the ball, when in fact the PSU defense is No. 5 in total defense, and No. 3 in points allowed. USC has also thrown 12 interceptions this year, 8 more than Penn State, and has lost the same number (9) of fumbles as the Lions. So don't let the "USC is great at forcing turnovers" mantra cloud the view of this USC team. They had no choice but to force turnovers, to make up for the many offensive miscues that no one likes to point out.

Host: Southern California Trojans
Record: 11-1 (8-1 Pac 10)
Last Game: Won vs UCLA, 28-7
Injuries: RB Stafon Johnson (knee - probable), WR Damian Williams (shoulder - doubtful), S Kevin Ellison (knee - doubtful), RB Allen Bradford (hip - out), TE Thomas Herring (ankle - out), FB Stanley Havili (academics - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Mark Sanchez, RB CJ Gable, RT Butch Lewis; (defense) LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, S Taylor Mays
Head Coach: Pete Carroll, 8th season at USC, 87-15 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 206 rush/247.1 pass/37.5 points per game
Defense - 83.2 rush/122.8 pass/7.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why USC will win -- Can any other team in America say they have the talent on defense USC will bring to bear against Penn State? But this defense isn't what you would expect. USC gives up a paltry 122 passing yards per game, but a surprising 83 yards rushing per game. That's because USC using their pass defense to stop the run. They know with guys like Rey Maualuga and Filli Moala, the opponents' run game won't pose so much of a threat, so USC can concentrate on attacking the quarterbacks and wide receivers. Throwing off routes has been a strong suit for USC, and forcing the other quarterback to throw early is a very bad idea when its against this defense. After all, if you don't get that ball out of there quick enough, you'll be on your bottom even quicker. USC loves to play a Tampa 2 and Man-Under defense, very conservative. Pete Carroll has that luxury because of the speed and skill his defenders have. That allows fewer risks that need to be taken on defense, like blitzing. Sure, USC will send the heat once in a while, but not as often as other teams do. USC will want to get Penn State into a dink-and-dunk kind of offensive game plan, and limit the big plays.

On offense, the days of Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and Dwayne Jarrett are gone, but the production is still outstanding. USC does not have a 1,000-yard back this season, but does have three players over 600 yards a piece–Joe McKnight (646), Stafon Johnson (642) and CJ Gable (602). Johnson has been hampered by a nagging injury, but should be able to play. That means USC will field (even if not all at the same time) 1,800 yards worth of rushing against Penn State. Mark Sanchez hasn't been asked to do a whole lot at quarterback, but he is more than capable to keep the offense humming. He was left without the 2007 starter Vidal Hazelton all this season (he transfered last month), but Patrick Turner and Ronald Johnson have filled in nicely. Leading the pack is Damien Williams, who has pulled in more than 700 receiving yards this year. But it will all come down to the USC offensive line, particularly the starting tackles, Butch Lewis and Charles Brown. They will be in charge of stopping the potent PSU pass rush, and Aaron Maybin. But it won't only be about keeping Sanchez upright. USC can push PSU back on its heels by using misdirection and screens to neutralize the defense, and with the talented USC backfield, the results could be huge gains.

What will happen -- Pete Carroll has created a great dynasty in Los Angeles, no doubt. But is he really deserving of such confidence over JOSEPH VINCENT PATERNO? USC has been great in bowls under Carroll, but so has Penn State under Paterno. If you compare the first eight seasons of each coach, Paterno has the better resume with two more undefeated seasons, and some of the best defenses of that time. The media loves to tell us "never underestimate Joe Paterno," but that's exactly what they're doing. The USC players looked bored and apathetic at the Rose Bowl media day earlier this week. I'm going out on a limb to say that I think this will negatively affect this team. USC usually blows the game when they're told they'll definitely win. That's what is happening.

***Disclaimer: By no means should the following prediction be taken as a promise. I have no clue what exactly will happen. I can only guess, and hope for the best. But if I could actually choose how this game should go, the following is what I would go with.***

Penn State will come out, lose the toss, and USC will want to put its vaunted defense on the field first. The Lions will be lucky to score on their first drive, but look for a nice first return from Chaz Powell (USC will kick away from Derrick Williams), giving Clark and the offense good field position. Penn State will go up by a field goal. The offenses on both sides will trade long, pounding drives, but Penn State will trail 13-10 at halftime.

In the second half, Tom Bradley will make some adjustments, while USC will keep playing like the national champion-calibur team it is. After two field goals, the Lions will be no further along than at the half, but a huge Derrick Williams return will spark the offense to some quick-hitting points, maybe even a touchdown. Penn State will shock USC by scoring the 10 points in a matter of minutes, forcing USC to make a risky throw or play call. Leading 20-16, Mark Rubin will make the play of the game, stepping in front of a Sanchez pass. Taking it all the way down to the one, Clark will go in on a QB-sneak. USC doesn't hesitate, marching right back down the field to score a touchdown, but misses the two-point conversion.

With Penn State leading 27-22, the Lions will try to run out the clock, but too much time is left. USC will have one last chance to score, but can't move down the field fast enough. With 0:02 left on the clock, Sanchez heaves a pass to the end zone, but Tony Davis is there to knock it down.

Stat Notes: USC will end up sacking Clark four times, but can't finish him off on a few key plays. Penn State will pick off Sanchez twice, once on a tipped pass at the line. USC will rush for at least 140 yards, but pass for only 170. Penn State will pass for 190, but only rush for 110. This game will come down to special teams, with USC ending up with horrible return averages, while Penn State will make several big plays for good field position.

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 27 - No. 5 USC 22

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2008 Bowl Previews, Part 2

We'll finish up our quick look into each bowl game this season. There are plenty of great matchups this season, but some real duds, too. I'll give the basics for each bowl game; who's in it, when, why I (and you) should take the time to watch, and which team gets the early nod from one of the better vegas sites out there. (not that I condone gambling or anything... *wink, wink*)

Part 2: Armed Forces Bowl thru BCS Title Game
Part 1

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 31 / 12 p.m. 

Air Force (8-4) vs. Houston (7-5)
Why I should watch: While you're getting ready for that New Years Eve party, flip this one on. It's nothing to go gaga for, but it offers some decent football between some evenly matched teams. Since this is another service academy in a bowl game, you sort of have to feel guilty if you don't watch.
Early line: Cougs by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 3/10.

Brut Sun Bowl Dec. 31 / 2 p.m.

Pitt (9-3) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
Why I should watch: There's two reasons for Penn State fans to tune into this game. Everyone loves rooting against Pittsburgh, and an Oregon State win would boost PSU's strength of schedule going into the final BCS poll release. The Beavers left a bad taste in everyone's mouths, getting blown out by Oregon in the final game. Meanwhile, we can't forget that Pitt lost to Bowling Green, and was slammed by Rutgers. As mediocre as they are, this game should be good.
Early line: Beavs by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl Dec. 31 / 3:30 p.m. 

Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
Why I should watch: Wow, where did Vanderbilt go after that 5-0 start? Seems like decades ago we were ranking the 'Dors in the top-15. Not so much now. Combine that with the fact that Boston College was ambushed by a fired-up Virginia Tech team, and this game could get ugly in a big hurry. Still, it's BCS vs. BCS.
Early line: Fighting Fluties by 3.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 3/10.

Insight Bowl Dec. 31 / 5:30 

Minnesota (7-5) vs. Kansas (7-5)
Why I should watch: The Golden Gophers were a nice feel-good story for about eight weeks, then it all caved in. Yes, it was still a great turnaround, but Kansas is still a much better overall team than Minnesota. Don't forget that the Jayhawks pulled out a very gutsy win over Missouri three weeks ago, in one of the best games this year. If KU quarterback Todd Reesing comes out sharp, this could turn into a great QB-battle with Adam Weber. Too bad its on the NFL Network.
Early line: Hawks by 10.
On paper, this game gets a... 3/10.

Chick-fil-A Bowl Dec. 31 / 7:30 p.m.
Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5)
Why I should watch: The talking heads on TV are still trying to cling to their "SEC is awesome!" preseason garbage, by calling for the upset here. Not so fast, my Corso wanna-be friends. Georgia Tech completely demolished Georgia–you know, the team that was supposed to win the National Championship–in the final game, while LSU has been a shell of the program it was the last few seasons. I'm not so sure this won't turn into a blowout.
Early line: Wreck by 4.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Outback Bowl Jan. 1 / 11 a.m.

Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5)
Why I should watch: Here we go, the first Big Ten vs. SEC matchup this bowl season, and it looks like quite the yawner. South Carolina played a very easy schedule, with its only good win against 8-4 Ole Miss. Losses to Vandy and Clemson were inexcusable. Iowa was a bit different, as three of four losses came to teams with more than nine wins, while the Hawkeyes beat No. 3 Penn State.
Early line: Hawks by 3.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Jan. 1 / 1 p.m.  

Clemson (7-5) vs. Nebraska (8-4)
Why I should watch: How quiet have those Cornhuskers been? Bo Pelini might be trying to keep his team under the radar for a while, because when he gets all the pieces in place, Big Red will be a killer once again. But it might all blow open early with a win over Clemson. Speaking of the Tigers, it wasn't all that long ago we were getting hyped up about the Alabama-Clemson game, only to find out that Clemson was a very, very mediocre team.
Early line: Tigers by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

Capital One Bowl Jan. 1 / 1 p.m. 

Michigan State (9-3) vs. Georgia (9-3)
Why I should watch: This is Big Ten vs. SEC part two. But this game won't be as kind to them northerners. Michigan State had a very good season, beating all the teams it should have. That was pretty impressive, considering where the program was under John L. Smith. Now look at Georgia, which came into this season with all the glitz and glamour of a sure-thing Hollywood blockbuster. Well, that movie bombed, moving straight to DVD in two months. Possibly one of the most overrated teams in college football this year, Georgia will come out hungry to redeem itself. It may not be a blowout, but it won't be pretty.
Early line: Dogs by 7.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl Jan. 2 / 5:00 p.m.

East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6)
Why I should watch: The Pirates made a big splash this September, beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Then they dropped a few games, and quickly lost favor among the pundits. But East Carolina made up for it by winning C-USA. Kentucky should be much better next season or the year after that, but it still managed a bowl bid.
Early line: Pirates by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

AT&T Cotton Bowl Jan. 2 / 2 p.m.   

Texas Tech (11-1) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)

Why I should watch: Ok SEC, want to prove you're not mega-overrated this year? Beat Texas Tech. Ed Orgeron, er, Mississippi wasn't given enough credit for winning eight games, one being Florida's only loss, in the Swamp. Texas Tech never seemed to recover from the Oklahoma debacle and could be prime meat for an upset. But Mike Leach has a way to win games, and Ole Miss hasn't seen anything like it before.
Early line: Tech by 5.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.


International Bowl Jan. 3 / 12 p.m. 

Connecticut (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-5)
Why I should watch: UConn isn't all that bad, having earned two straight bowl bids. Plus, coach Randy Edsall is still a very good coach who knows how to get a lot out of a little. Buffalo is probably the best overall program-turnaround from the last few years to this season's MAC championship. Turner Gill has entertained offers to other big-time jobs, but will probably stay put for another season.
Early line: Huskies by 4.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 2/10.

GMAC Bowl Jan. 6 / 8 p.m. 

Tulsa (10-3) vs. Ball State (12-1)
Why I should watch: This can be the "Wow, how did we lose those games" bowl. Ball State was one uninspired performance away from going undefeated, while Tulsa was everyone's favorite offensive juggernaut for most of this year. Outside of the massive disappointments that were the two teams' final games, this one should provide some fireworks.
Early line: Cards by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

BCS Games


FedEx Orange Bowl Jan. 1 / 8 p.m.
 
Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. Cincinnati (11-2)

Why I should watch: All my friends and neighbors around here are Hokies fans, so there's some interest from that. But actually I think I'll root against Tech. I'm a Big East guy by nature, so I'll go with Cincy. It's still not one of the best BCS games in recent memory. VT coach Frank Beamer got a lot out of his team after a disastrous start, to win the ACC. Cincinnati has now won 21 games the last two seasons, and coach Brian Kelly said he's staying put. Remember, Oklahoma was one of Cincy's losses.
Early line: Bear...cats by 2.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Rose Bowl presented by Citi Jan. 1 / 5:10 p.m.
  
USC (11-1) vs. Penn State (11-1)

Why I should watch: You know why... I'll have the full Rose Bowl Preview posted on Dec. 29.
Early line: Condoms by 9.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 9/10.

Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 2 / 8:30 p.m.
  
Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0)
Why I should watch: What will Alabama do now? The Tide was riding higher than a Utah skilift, until it all came crashing down with a loss to Florida in the championship game. If Nick Saban is really a good coach, he'll get his team ready. Personally, I would have rather seen Alabama take on Texas in the "Should-Have-Been-In-Bowl." Utah is back in the BCS after crashing the party in 2004. But this time, it's not going up against an 8-3 Pitt team. The Utes have been one of the more consistent winners over the last few years, and with a win can make an even stronger, even if its unintentional, case for a playoff system.
Early line: Tide by 10.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Jan. 5 / 8 p.m.
  
Texas (11-1) vs. Ohio State (10-2)
Why I should watch: Texas beat Oklahoma. Texas beat Oklahoma. TEXAS... BEAT... OKLAHOMA... 45-35! Has there ever been more motivation for a eam to absolutely annihilate its opponent? On top of that, Colt McCoy didn't even win the Heisman, losing to Sam Bradford... of Oklahoma! Ohio State, though, isn't even being given a chance in this one. We all know what happens when you tell a team "you can't possibly win this one." The Buckeyes are just not as good as we thought this year, and don't count on Terrelle Pryor.
Early line: Horns by 9.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 8/10.

FedEx BCS National Championship Jan. 8 / 8 p.m.
 
Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Florida (12-1)
Why I should watch: I never would have thought that Oklahoma would be an under-the-radar kind of team this year, but they have been. With so much hype over Texas Tech, Texas, Florida, Alabama and even Georgia early on, Oklahoma sort of fell by the wayside after losing to the Longhorns. On the other hand, Florida always had its SEC homers telling anyone who would listen, that the Gators were the best kept secret all season long, and that the Ole Miss loss actually made them better. Plus, watching two Heisman winners on the same field is always fun.
Early line: Fighting Tebows by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 9/10.

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2008 Bowl Previews, Part 1

Let's begin our quick look into each bowl game this season. There are plenty of great matchups this season, but some real duds, too. I'll give the basics for each bowl game; who's in it, when, why I (and you) should take the time to watch, and which team gets the early nod.

Part 1: EagleBank Bowl thru Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Part 2

EagleBank Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 11 a.m.

Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)

Why I should watch: Wake Forest was a hot team coming into the season, but turned out to be less than stellar. The Demon Deacons did beat Ole Miss, who beat Florida in The Swamp. Navy is a service academy, which is always appealing to watch, especially since the Middies are the best of the best at running the triple-option. Plus, it's not every day you get football during brunch.
Early line: Wake by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.


New Mexico Bowl 
Dec. 20/12:30 p.m.

Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5)

Why I should watch: Remember when Fresno State was a hot team this year? Well, it seems the Bulldogs were just another product of the September hype machine. Colorado State is the first team we're looking at that shouldn't be in a bowl game, but that's for a whole other post.
Early line:: Fresno by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 8 p.m. 

BYU (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Why I should watch: The Pac 10 was reeling this season, but Arizona managed to eke out a bowl big with a win over State. It was a nice little story no one cared about. BYU on the other hand, was everyone's darling for most of the year, fluttering in and out of the top-15.
Early line: Zona by 2.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 9 p.m. 

South Florida (7-5) vs. Memphis (6-6)
Why I should watch: The Bulls were supposed to contend for the Big East championship, but stumbled to 7-5. They have a good playmaker in QB Matt Grothe, and a decent defense when they want to be. Memphis is another team that shouldn't be in a bowl game
Early line: USF by 12.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl 
Dec. 21 / 8 p.m.

Troy (8-4) vs. Southern Miss (6-6)

Why I should watch: Remember (yeah, I know I started this way already...) when Ohio State struggled with Troy at home, and all the SEC folks were pointing their fingers and laughing at the Big Ten? Well, where were they all when Troy was up 31-3(!) over LSU in Baton Rouge before blowing the lead? There's no other interest in this bowl other than how Troy played against the "big boys" this season. Southern Miss is Team No. 3 that shouldn't have gotten a bid.
Early line: Troyjans by 4.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 2/10.


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl 
Dec. 23 / 8 p.m. 

TCU (10-2) vs. Boise State (12-0)
Why I should watch: Finally, a decent bowl game. Even though Boise State didn't play anyone this season outside of Oregon, they were still one of only two teams (Utah) boasting a perfect record. The real equalizer for this one is that it's in San Diego, not the frozen tundra known as Boise, Idaho. The Horned Frogs have one of the best defensive lines in college football, with all four of its starters named to the All-MWC teams this year.
Early line: says: Frogs by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl 
Dec. 24 / 8 p.m.

Notre Dame (6-6) vs. Hawaii (7-5)
Why I should watch: There are two kinds of people in this country: Those who like Notre Dame, and those who hate Notre Dame. This game will draw an audience for no other reason than those watching will either want the Irish to win, or they want them to lose. Oh, and a few Hawaii fans thrown in too. Besides, what else is there to do on Dec. 24?... oh, wait...
Early line: Hawaii by 1.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

Motor City Bowl 
Dec. 26 / 7:30 p.m.

Florida Atlantic (6-6) vs. Central Michigan (8-4)
Why I should watch: Ahh, the grace and beauty of Detroit in December. Central Michigan has made this place its second home during the winter, while Florida Atlantic will get off the plane and realize why no southern teams want to play up north after October.
Early line: Chipps by 7.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

Meineke Car Care Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 1 p.m. 

North Carolina (8-4) vs. West Virginia (8-4)
Why I should watch: North Carolina had a good year, but not great. West Virginia had a very not-good year, but not horrible. Although both teams took steps in opposite directions this season, they both seem poised for big things in 2009. How big? This game could tell us a lot about where they'll be next season.
Early line: Even.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Champs Sports Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 4:30 p.m. 

Florida State (8-4) vs. Wisconsin (7-5)
Why I should watch: This would have been the best bowl matchup of the season... if it were 1998 or 1999. But it's 2008, and the two programs are shells of what they were a decade ago. Still, two name-brand teams will draw some eyes, mine included. At one point this year, these were two teams with promise. Then reality set in.
Early line: Noles by 5.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Emerald Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 8:30 p.m.

Miami (7-5) vs. California (8-4)
Why I should watch: California is a little better than its records shows, as is Miami. This is going to be a vastly underrated matchup between two very decent football teams. While Cal wasn't anything special this year, it won a big game early against Michigan State. Miami is very athletic, and should be a real killer next year.
Early line: Cal by 7.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

Independence Bowl 
Dec. 28 / 8 p.m.

Louisiana Tech (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (6-6)
Why I should watch: This game will have to compete with the NFL on Sunday, but if you're like me and playing any one of the million bowl pick'ems, it's worth a few minutes.
Early line: NIU by 1.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

PapaJohn’s.com Bowl 
Dec. 29 / 3 p.m.

Rutgers (6-6) vs. NC State (6-6)
Why I should watch: If you told me in September that these two teams would go bowling this year, I would have laughed in your face. Who's laughing now? Rutgers made one of the best intra-season turnarounds I can remember (trumping Penn State 2001, since RU made a bowl), and NC State is steadily returning to respectability under Tom O'Brien.
Early line: K'niggits by 7.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10. (only because I'm from North Jersey)

Alamo Bowl 
Dec. 29 / 8 p.m.

Northwestern (9-3) vs. Missouri (9-3)
Why I should watch: Missou was at one point ranked No. 3 this season, only to lose three games. Northwestern was the cinderella story in the Big Ten this season, just beating out Minnesota for the honor. The Alamo Bowl really scored a knockout game here, even though one of these 9-3 teams is much better than the other.
Early line: Missou by 13.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

Texas Bowl 
Dec. 30 / 8 p.m.


Western Michigan (9-3) vs. Rice (9-3)

Why I should watch: I still don't quite understand why the freakin' NFL Network is broadcasting a bowl game, but oh well. Western Michigan has been a pretty good program the last few years, while Rice has a very dynamic (I hate that word in sports) pass-catch duo in Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard. Sparks could fly in this one.
Early line: Rice by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl 
Dec. 30/4:30 p.m.

Maryland (7-5) vs. Nevada (7-5)
Why I should watch: The field is made of blue turf. Sure, it'll make your eyes hurt for a bit, but isn't that the idea? Maryland was on the brink of a good season, but then turned into the same team that lost to Middle Tennessee State earlier this year. The Terps did beat Cal though. Two of Nevada's five losses were to Texas Tech and Missouri, so you have to give them a little credit where it's due.
Early line: Pack by 1.5.
On paper, this game gets... 3/10.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl 
Dec. 30 / 8 p.m.

Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Oregon (9-3)
Why I should watch: Playing on a Tuesday will never draw too many eyes, but the teams playing this year will more than make up for it. In prime Holiday Bowl tradition, two really good teams go at each other. Oregon fell of the map early this year, but turned it around, capping the season with by blasting Oregon State. Oklahoma State lost to the teams it was supposed to, and there were only three of them.
Early line: 'Boys by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Part 2

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Big Ten Title Game: Your Complete ZN Coverage

Brought to you by (duh!) Zombie Nation.

I'm going to use this post as an "open thread" all day, posting my comments on everything from the ESPN Gameday Crew, to in-game thoughts and updates. So feel free to stop by and post your own comments about what's going on throughout game day, right here at ZN!

•Full Game Preview - No. 8 Penn St vs No. 15 Michigan St

•PSU vs. MSU :: The Land Grant Trophy

•ABC/ESPN Coverage Map

•Guest Blogger - The Enlightened Spartan (MSU)

•Blue & White Roundtable: Regular Season Finale

•Big Ten Bloggers weekly Pick'em: Week 13

•Reader Poll Results: Readers pick Penn State over Michigan State

*Note: The poll is still active, and there are
still several hours left, so you can still get your vote in!

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Preview: No. 8 Penn State vs No. 15 Michigan State

Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 22. 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Weather Forecast: Very Cold, Mostly Cloudy w/Snow Flurries.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 10-1 (6-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Indiana, 34-7
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S
Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz
(knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT
Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 382-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 218.3 rush/224.4 pass/39.4 points per game
Defense - 101.5 rush/157.2 pass/11.9 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)

Why PSU will win -- Michigan State has been good, but not very impressive this season. The Spartans were blown out at home by Ohio State (9-2), 45-7, and nearly lost to Wisconsin (6-5) in East Lansing. Probably the best win so far was the 37-20 win over Northwestern (8-3) in Evanston. They were able to squeak by Iowa (7-4) by 3 at home, but that was before the Hawkeyes' recent revival. Penn State has been great this season in big games–the Iowa games wasn't viewed as a big game by PSU, whether they tell you that or not, thus the letdown–having pummeled Wisconsin 48-7 in Madison, and beating Ohio State in the Horseshoe. Penn State still leads the conference in offensive ppg and defensive ppg, while Michigan State has scored only 6.4 ppg more than opponents (26.9-19.5). I very much like the matchup between the Penn State run game (see team stats) versus the Michigan State run defense. And on the flip-side, I also like Penn State holding down the Michigan State run game. Even though Javon Ringer leads the world in rushing attempts and was the best in yardage, he's been the entire MSU rushing attack, which still ranks ninth in the Big Ten. In freezing weather, the better defense usually wins. As far as playing in Beaver Stadium, this should be the loudest crowd MSU has faced all season long, and should make the difference for Penn State's chances.

Visitor: Michigan State Spartans
Record: 9-2 (6-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Purdue (Nov. 8), 21-7
Injuries: DB Chris Rucker (leg - questionable), WR Mark Dell (N/A -
questionable), OL Arthur Ray (leg - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Javon Ringer, QB Brian Hoyer; (defense) LB
Greg Jones, S Otis Wiley
Head Coach: Mark D'Antonio, 2nd season at MSU, 16-8; 5th overall, 34-25
Season Statistics:
Offense - 147.8 rush/207.4 pass/26.9 points per game
Defense - 148.5 rush/191.4 pass/19.5 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why MSU will win -- This is the best Spartans team fielded since Nick Saban was head coach. Ringer leads the conference in all-purpose yardage, and is arguably more difficult to tackle than Mike Hart was at Michigan. Although Michigan State has allowed opponents more trips into the red zone than PSU, the Spartans have held teams to a conference-best 74.3 percent conversion rate. In what could turn into a close, every-point-matters game, forcing a turnover in the red zone will be a top priority for MSU. Penn State hasn't been playing well the last few outings, including the win at Ohio State. It took an incredibly clean game (0 penalties, 0 turnovers) by PSU to beat the Buckeyes, and you can almost count on a few mistakes this week. Michigan State is catching Penn State at the perfect time, as PSU is still getting over the Iowa letdown, and didn't play up to speed against a horrible Indiana (3-8) team. The Spartans could really throw a wrench into the Penn State attack by getting in Daryll Clark's head. And Otis Wiley is the man to do it, as he is second in the Big Ten in interceptions (4), and one pick-six. Michigan State wants to give its offense short fields, and to keep the Penn State crowd out of this game. That's where one or two turnovers could swing it for the Spartans.

What will happen -- The early spread is about two touchdowns, PSU (-14) over MSU. When Vegas lays a line that wide, they're usually telling us it will be a blowout. I don't think so. There is the very real chance that the Penn State team we saw in September and October show up and jump Michigan State, but I just don't see it happening. These aren't the Spartans of John L. Smith. These guys are like soldiers who shut up and do their job, and do it well. Penn State will have to play on its 'A' game, and should be able to beat Michigan State. There's no way the Nittany Lions lose at home in what could be Joe Paterno's final great season at Penn State.*

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 31 - No. 15 Michigan State 20

*No, I don't mean that to sound like Joe will retire or leave. I mean that this could be the last time he could win 11 games. We don't know what will happen next year, so this year's team has to play like it's the last hurrah.

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Preview: Indiana at No. 8 Penn State

Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 15. 12 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Weather Forecast: Cold, rain.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-1 (5-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Iowa, 24-23
Injuries: S Drew Astorino (hand - probable), QB Daryll Clark (concussion - probable), DE Josh Gaines (ankle - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT Jared Odrick, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 381-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 221.7 rush/221 pass/39.9 points per game
Defense - 99.3 rush/167.2 pass/12.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- Let's be realistic. If half the Indiana squad wasn't injured, I'd say this could be a real game. But with both starting quarterbacks hurt, the running back hurt, and most of the secondary in shambles, Indiana hopes it can hold Penn State to half-a-hundred in this one. On top of that, as if Penn State wasn't good enough, the Nittany Lions will come out really, really pissed off after choking away the Iowa game. The offense has been out of synch for three weeks, and the Jay/Galen duo want to regain the confidence of the team and the fan-base/media (no matter how much they tell you the fans/media don't run the team). I think we are going to see the run game, earlier, more than last week. Penn State made a bad decision to keep things buttoned up with Daryll Clark–injured or not–not getting any QB-draws. If Clark is full strength this week, he'll run. On defense I'm expecting either an all-out attempt to rattle the Indiana quarterback, with blitz after blitz, or the typical four-man rush while dropping seven into coverage. I'd place my bets on the latter.

Visitor: Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 3-7 (1-5 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Wisconsin, 55-20
Injuries: RB Marcus Thigpen (N/A - questionable), QB Ben Chappell (concussion - questionable), QB Kellen Lewis (ankle - questionable), RB Bryan Payton (N/A - questionable), OL Rodger Saffold (knee - questionable), OL Andrew McDonald (N/A - auestionable), OL James Brewer (N/A - questionable), LB Will Patterson (knee - out), S Austin Thomas (knee - out), CB Chris Phillips (knee - out), TE Brian Zematis (ankle - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB/KR Demetrius McCray, Any IU QB; (defense) DE Jammie Kerliew, LB Matt Mayberry
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 2nd season at Indiana, 10-13; 16th year overall, 91-78
Season Statistics:
Offense - 175.8 rush/202.6 pass/22.9 points per game
Defense - 175.9 rush/238.9 pass/32.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+2)

Why Indiana will win (ok, not really) -- Again, be realistic. Indiana is a shell of what it once was, never mind what it was last year. And it all starts with the injuries to Chappell and Lewis. If either one of those players could go this week, things would be different. Indiana will probably give backup Mitchell Evans some easy throws–dropoffs over the middle, in the flats, screens–to keep Penn State honest. But that will only work for so long. The Hoosiers are praying that Marcus Thigpen can go this week, as he's been the lone spark in the run game, especially with Lewis on the sidelines. Thigpen's averaged a healthy 6.7 yards per carry, with several huge runs. He's a legit track star, and can also catch the ball, tallying 228 receiving yards this year. Indiana could very well design a game plan directly around him. But again, that's if he's at full speed. On defense, the Hoosiers are wondering what this year could have been like without all the injuries. But it's not just that. Last year, Indiana had a bona-fide star in DE Greg Middleton (led nation in sacks). But he's been nearly MIA this year (8 tkl, 1 sack). DE Kerliew has stepped in nicely with 14 sacks, but imagine what the IU defense could have done if both were playing on that level? Basically, Indiana has no shot this week.

What will happen -- I'm going out on a lib here. I think Penn State will win this game. The fans and media think they were hurt by the loss last week, but really we have no freaking clue how badly it hurt for the players. Assuming they turn that hurt into all-out rage against Indiana, Penn State could return to its explosive offense and just-enough defense. Remember, the defense wasn't supposed to be the savior this year. The fans–mainly students–will show up late (not me, I never miss pregame) to this gloomy noon kickoff, which will be compounded by the rainy forecast. But Penn State will get the job done with a convincing home win, sort of a tune-up before the "Big Ten Championship Game" next week.

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State, 41 - Indiana, 14

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Preview: No. 3 Penn State at Iowa

Preview: No. 3 Penn State at Iowa
Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 8. 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cold, breezy, light snow/rain mix.

Host: Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 5-4 (2-3 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Illinois, 27-24
Injuries: TE Tony Moeaki (leg - doubtful), OL Seth Olsen (ankle - doubtful), OL Dace Richardson (knee - out), LB Troy Johnson (knee - doubtful)
Key Players: (offense) RB Shonn Greene, QB Ricky Stanzi; (defense) LB Pat Angerer, DT Mitch King
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 10th season at Iowa/overall, 61-49
Season Statistics:
Offense - 189 rush/190.1 pass/29.1 points per game
Defense - 100.7 rush/200.9 pass/13.2 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why Iowa will win -- The Hawkeyes are a team that can lose to anyone, but beat anyone at the same rate. Iowa hasn't had a running game like this one since 2002-2003, winning 21 games along the way. More impressively, Greene has done this without an offensive line like Penn State has. Stanzi gives Iowa a little more stability under center, but isn't a world-beater. I'm looking for plenty of high-percentage throws, and a whole lot of screens to Greene. If Iowa can even neutralize the Penn State defensive pressure, they have a shot at keeping the offense moving. On defense, Iowa has the best pair of defensive tackles in the conference, but don't have much of a pass rush to go with it. The outside has been a weakness for the Hawkeyes. I figure Ferentz & Co. will load up on the edges, leaving Mitch King and Matt Kroul to do their thing in the middle. Iowa has every chance to take Penn State out of its game, and it will start up front. Get a couple of shots on Daryll Clark, and that will effectively slow the Lions receivers. It worked for Ohio State, and I imagine Iowa has seen plenty of that game tape.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-0 (5-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at No. 9 Ohio St, 13-6
Injuries: QB Daryll Clark (concussion - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), RB Brent Carter (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 381-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 226.3 rush/233.4 pass/41.8 points per game
Defense - 99.1 rush/166.8 pass/11.1 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- On paper, Penn State and Iowa are about even on both sides of the ball. They're No. 1 and No. 3 in scoring offense, and No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring defense. But that's where it pretty much ends. Iowa hasn't been able to win close games. Penn State has only been in one real close game. I think it will come down to which team has the intangibles, and I'll give that battle to Penn State. The Lions have proven they can win on the road–in both ugly and dominant fashion, mind you–and can come back from trailing. I don't really think Clark's concussion will impact this game as much as we think. He's had two weeks off, and hasn't taken any hits. Penn State's offensive line has been great all year, and should be able to control Iowa enough to keep them off Clark. If the Hawkeyes blitz the way Ohio State did, that should open up the quick throws over the middle, and screen passes out of the backfield. The big boost if this should happen, is that Iowa doesn't have the secondary Ohio State does, and can't match up against the Penn State receivers the way the Buckeyes did. I'm looking for Penn State to come out throwing, similar to the Wisconsin game.

What will happen -- Iowa will be all jacked up to start the game, but the crowd will need some help to stay in it. I don't think it will last long. Penn State hasn't gotten a break all season, and has the mental capacity to prevent a post-bye gaffe in Iowa City. The rest will show up big time this week, as Penn State will move the ball methodically, up and down the field. Iowa will use Greene very effectively, but won't be able to get the big plays needed to stay with the Lions. Forcing Iowa into catch-up mode is Penn State's best option to win this game going away. I dont' expect the weather to become so much of a factor, but could play a part early on, when the players are still tight.

Prediction: No. 3 Penn State, 37 - Iowa, 10

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Preview: No. 3 Penn State at No. 9 Ohio State

Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 25. 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
Weather Forecast: Cool, showers.

Host: Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 7-1 (4-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Michigan St., 45-7
Injuries: RB Dan Herron (head - probable), CB Chimdi Chekwa (shoulder - probable), OT J.B. Shugarts (shoulder - out), DE Lawrence Wilson (knee - out), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (head - no report), OL Mike Adams (ankle - out), CB Andre Amos (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Chris Wells, QB Terrelle Pryor; (defense) LB James Laurinaitis, DB Malcolm Jenkins
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 8th season at Ohio St., 80-17; 22nd year overall, 215-74-2
Season Statistics:
Offense - 130.7 rush/140.1 pass/26.9 points per game
Defense - 97.1 rush/168.2 pass/13.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+12)

Why Ohio State will win -- The Shoe hasn't been kind to Penn State. Well, really it hasn't been kind to many teams at all. Ohio State will host the biggest game of the Big Ten season, it's at night, and could be considered the Big Ten championship game. Jim Tressel's reputation as a "big game coach" has taken a hit recently, but don't expect for one minute that he won't use the atmosphere and the rabid fan base to his team's benefit. I don't think these Buckeyes will come out flat in their own house. Chris "Beanie" Wells is back, and is ready to carry this team to a win over Penn State. The Nittany Lions had tons of trouble in the first half with Michigan's zone-read option, and Steven Threet is no Terrelle Pryor and Brandon Minor is no Chris Wells. Ohio State can spread the Penn State front with misdirection, keeping the Lions' offense off the field.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 8-0 (4-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Michigan, 46-17
Injuries: S Anthony Scirrotto (head - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 380-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 234.6 rush/247.5 pass/45.4 points per game
Defense - 103.9 rush/159.4 pass/11.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)

Why PSU will win -- Penn State got its wake up call last week against Michigan. I've been saying all week that the best thing to happen to Penn State before this Ohio State game, is Michigan smacking the Nittany Lions right in the mouth. If there's one thing Penn State can do well, it's adjust to its opponents game plans. Had Ohio State gone up 17-7 over Penn State, it would have gotten ugly in a big hurry. But by playing Michigan, Penn State was given the chance to adjust on defense and offense. Ohio State won't sneak up on Penn State this week. Terrelle Pryor hasn't had to lead his team in a comeback against a good team yet. You could say the same thing about Daryll Clark, but Pryor doesn't have the surrounding cast Clark does. Penn State's defensive front should be able to put pressure on Pryor, while preventing him from taking off. Should this game boil down to a quarterback battle, I'd take Clark in a heartbeat.

What will happen -- Penn State has never brought a team this good to Columbus, while Ohio State brings a very unimpressive resume. Games aren't played on paper, and neither team will let the odds makers or the pundits convince them of anything prematurely. I fully expect each team to battle from the first whistle to the final gun. Ohio State has a fine defense, on the same level as Penn State, but I don't think they will be able to keep the Lions down for too long. It will be up to the Ohio State offense to win this game, and I don't think they can do it. I'm not going to guess which one, but I wouldn't doubt if Penn State or Ohio State led the other team by only one score at the half. The last time Penn State went to Columbus, in the rain, Ohio State was down 3-0 at halftime. It took the eventual Heisman winner, Troy Smith, to make the play of the season to spark Ohio State to the win. Of course, Anthony Morelli's two pick-six's had something to do with the 28-6 final score. Lucky for Penn State, Daryll Clark is definitely NOT Morelli.

Prediction: No. 3 Penn State, 30 - No. 9 Ohio State, 24

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Preview: No. 3 Penn State vs. Michigan

Preview: Michigan at No. 3 Penn State
Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 18. 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cool, Partly Cloudy.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 7-0 (3-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Wisconsin, 48-7
Injuries: WR Brett Brackett (concussion - possible), RB Brent Carter (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), DE Devon Still (ankle) - out, S Nick Sukay (foot - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, C AQ Shipley;(defense) DE Jared Odrick, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 379-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 235.1 rush/247 pass/45.3 points per game
Defense - 89.9 rush/169.4 pass/11 points per game
TO Margin - (+8)

Why PSU will win -- The Michigan defensive front is very good, but they haven't faced an offensive line like Penn State's. With a sure-All America selection in A.Q. Shipley, and a few others working towards all-conference honors, Penn State just has to play to the line's strength. Lately, that's just about everything. The Nittany Lions have given up a total of SIX sacks this season, while plowing the way for the best rushing attack in the Big Ten. On the flip side of that, Penn State's defensive front has been the biggest, and most important, surprise this season. After losing so many players, then losing Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma for three games, no one thought the line would play as well. Um, not exactly. Penn State has been able to lean on the defensive line, in both pass and run defense. Penn State should be able to rush only four against Michigan, as they did against Wisconsin, and drop seven into coverage.

Visitor: Michigan Wolverines
Record: 2-4 (1-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Toledo, 13-10
Injuries: RB Brandon Minor (ribs - probable), DE Brandon Braham (leg - probable), WR Martavious Odoms (shoulder - probable), CB Donovan Warren (leg - probable), WR Junior Hemingway (Mono - out), LB Austin Panter (shoulder - out), RB Carlos Brown (foot - out), RB Mike Milano (susp. - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Sam McGuffie, QB Steven Threet; (defense) LB Obi Ezeh, DT Terrence Taylor
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez, 1st season at Michigan, 2-4; 8th year overall, 62-30
Season Statistics:
Offense - 130.7 rush/160.8 pass/18.8 points per game
Defense - 102.5 rush/241.7 pass/24.8 points per game
TO Margin - (-8)

Why Michigan will win -- While the offense has been almost a non-factor for Michigan, the defense has been quietly fantastic. It was the defense which turned the Wisconsin blowout into a Michigan win. If there's a chance for Michigan to jump on Penn State, it's with an early turnover or two. And while Wisconsin couldn't throw off Penn State by focusing in on stopping the run, Michigan's front seven could put enough pressure on Daryll Clark to force him into a few mistakes. On offense, the absolute only way Michigan can pull this one out is to not turn the ball over. It's plagued the Wolverines, highlighted by a six-turnover trip to South Bend, but can't come back again. Steven Threet (5 tds, 3 ints) has been the more consistent option at QB, but he hasn't gotten much help from the unit as a whole. There is talent, but no cohesion on offense. Michigan can only hope that the offense has an epiphany between now and Saturday, say, around 4:30 p.m.

What will happen -- I thought Wisconsin would put up a fight, any fight, against Penn State. But the deflating losses against Michigan and Ohio State were too much to overcome. What's Michigan thinking right now? Sure, they're saying that they will bring their best. Well then, what did they bring against Toledo? This game is a total mismatch, both on paper and in real life. Penn State will come out with fire in its eyes, seeking as much revenge as can be crammed into 60 minutes of football. The sheer desire to pound Michigan into the ground will keep Penn State focused enough to put this game away by the fourth quarter. After all, the Penn State coaches realize a win over Michigan doesn't come all that often, and will want to play as many of the backups as possible.

Prediction: No. 3 Penn State, 59 - Michigan, 13 (What?!?! Yeah, I went there.)

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Preview: No. 6 Penn State at No. 24 Wisconsin

Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 11. 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Mild, Cloudy.

Host: Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 4-2 (0-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs No. 14 Ohio State, 20-17
Injuries: LT Gabe Carimi (knee - doubtful), TE Garrett Graham (foot - probable), WR Maurice Moore (groin - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB P.J. Hill, QB Allan Evridge; (defense) LB DeAndre Levy, DL Matt Shaughnessy
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 3rd season at Wisconsin, 25-7 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 210.6 rush/185.4 pass/28.8 points per game
Defense - 123.6 rush/186.2 pass/17.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why Wisconsin will win -- Camp Randall Stadium will be rocking. It's one of the most raucous environments in sports, and that's just in the daytime. The Wisconsin fans will be well-oiled and ready to roll come game time, and the Badger defense could feed off it. On top of all that, if the Wisconsin band is allowed to play--they were suspended for "partying" too much--the fans should be even louder. Penn State has been horrible on the road since 1999, and hasn't won in Madison since 2002, by only a field goal. Wisconsin's running backs can move the pile. If either P.J. Hill or budding star John Clay get hot, expect Bielema to keep going to them. It will be up to the Wisconsin running game to keep the ball away from Penn State. The offensive line isn't quite as good as past Badger fronts, but they're still pretty damn good.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-0 (2-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Purdue, 20-6
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable), WR Jordan Norwood (leg - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) LB Josh Hull, DT Jared Odrick
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 378-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 256.7 rush/243 pass/44.8 points per game
Defense - 80.2 rush/170.2 pass/11.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why PSU will win -- It hasn't rocked like this since 1994. Penn State's offense is just steamrolling every team they face. And the scary part about last week's 20-6 score at Purdue, is that the only thing to slow PSU was the field. Daryll Clark has been scary accurate, and the running game with Royster and Stephfon Green has been unstoppable. Couple that with three of the best wide receivers ever to play at PSU--oh yeah, and Jordan Norwood is expected to return this week--and Wisconsin fans are having nightmares all week. The mental factor will play strongly in this game. Wisconsin is lower than sludge right now, and Penn State has to take advantage of that. If Penn State gets the ball first and scores a touchdown, or the defense forces Wisconsin to punt on the first drive, it could be all over for the Badgers.

What will happen -- You'll see a much better showing out of Wisconsin than the pundits--myself included--have been saying. It will really depend on the crowd. Penn State fans know what a good fan base can do for a team in a big game, and the Lions are expecting the worst this week. Wisconsin will come out and hang tight with Penn State through the first half, but Clark and Royster will take over in the third quarter. If you want to beat Penn State, you have to match every score, and get a few cheap points. It won't happen this week. Penn State will give up a few scores to Wisconsin, but the Badgers won't be able to keep pace.

Prediction: No. 6 Penn State, 34 - No. 24 Wisconsin, 20

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The Only Game That Matters talks PSU vs. Wisconsin

All the Wisconsin bloggers are passed out drunk in a ditch somewhere, so The Only Game That Matters was kind enough to fill in for those belligerent Badger bloggers.

1. Penn State has been great against the run so far. From what you've seen, does Wisconsin have the ground game to keep their attack balanced this week? Can Wisconsin just run it up the gut the way they love to?

TOGTM: I think the first thing to do here is throw some numbers into the mix so that we have a baseline of what "great against the run" really means. Additionally, it will help us determine what Wisconsin wants to do with their rushing attack - what is "normal" for them. Penn State hasn't just been great against the run, they've been stellar. Through 6 games, they've allowed an average of only 80 yards/game on the ground - good enough for 11th nationally. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is averaging just above 200 yards/game on the ground - good enough for 20th nationally.

Your question - can Wisconsin just run it up the gut - is the question that will likely determine the outcome of this game. Whenever you get one of these "rock vs. hard place" matchups, you've identified one of the key swinging points. I think that Penn State is going to see a lot of PJ Hill; whether Hill moves the chains in 4 yard chunks, or is hit at the line of scrimmage will likely determine the amount of success that the Wisconsin offense has.

Another aspect to keep in mind is that Wisconsin can't go on those long, suffocating offensive drives if they're down by 21. Wisky's not built to play from behind - so if Penn State gets a lead early, it will largely nuetralize the rushing attack. Conversely, if Wisconsin gets a lead, they're perfectly capable of taking the entire 3rd
quarter away from you by going on a 9 minute 80 yard drive.

2. Where is Wisconsin right now, after losing two straight heart-breakers? Do the Badgers show up flat, or come out roaring?

TOGTM: They're saying all the right things, but the pressure is on given that an 0-3 start to the Big Ten is like, death. Just like any game, I expect the Badgers to come out as roaring as they can, given that they're Wisconsin and have goofy dairy-fed white guys running the show. The first drive, no matter who has the ball, is going to be very, very important. Wisconsin had better establish momentum early, or it will be very easy to fall into "Michigan Collapse" mode and fold against the physicality of Penn State.

3. Which back is more likely to gain 100 yards rushing this week: Evan
Royster, or PJ Hill? Why?

TOGTM: Royster, whithout a doubt. Penn State can do so many things offensively that will keep Wisconsin unbalanced. That's the main reason why I think Wisconsin's best defense is long, sustained drives on offense. They need to keep Penn State's offense off the field as much as possible. Hill has a good chance of getting his 100, it's just that they will come on 4 yard dives up the middle.

4. If Wisconsin pulls this one out, what could it do for their season?

TOGTM: Wisconsin is in dire straights. They need this win to keep their B10 season afloat. Win here, and the Rose Bowl is still in the picture, albeit fuzzy and out of focus. A loss puts a New Years Day bowl game in jeopardy. Wisconsin has proved that they can run with the big boys of the conference. They should have beat Michigan (not a big boy, to be sure), and took Ohio State to the brink. They've come up on the short end of the stick, but still have to be somewhat confident that they're a good football team. A loss to Penn State crushes that confidence, and will likely send them into a "Michigan State" tailspin that ends in Detroit playing the MAC runner up.

5. Final Score?

TOGTM: 27-14, Penn State. I think PSU jumps to an early lead, forces
Evridge to throw the ball more than he'd like to, and skates home with a win.

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Preview: No. 6 Penn State at Purdue

Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 4, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cool/Mild, Mostly Sunny.

Host: Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 2-2 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Notre Dame 38-21
Confirmed Injuries: Saf. Frank Duong (knee - doubtful), TE Kyle Adams
(knee - doubtful), LB Jason Werner (back - out), RB Jaycen Taylor (ACL
- out season)
Key Players: (offense) QB Curtis Painter, LT Garret Miller; (defense)
DTs Mike Neal/Ryan Baker, LB Anthony Heygood
Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 12th season at Purdue, 85-56; 18th year
overall, 124-86-1
Season Statistics:
Offense - 125.8 rush/278.2 pass/30.2 points per game
Defense - 194.5 rush/244.8 pass/36.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)

How PU will win -- Big plays on offense. Purdue has a good offense. Not great, maybe compared to the Boilermaker offenses the Big Ten is used to, but still good. They can put up points against Penn State, mainly using the pass to set up the run. All Curtis Painter has to do is nail a few first-down passes, getting the PSU secondary to back out of the box. Illinois used the pass game effectively, and actually had its biggest plays from the wide receivers. Ball control. The load will rest on Kory Sheets to keep the chains moving. Without a decent run game this week, Painter's arm can't beat Penn State. But ball control doesn't mean only the offense has to keep the ball. The Purdue defense has to force a few three-and-outs from Penn State, especially early in the game to set a good tone. If anything, it will get the crowd riled up.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 5-0 (1-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. No. 21 Illinois 38-24
Confirmed Injuries: DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee
- out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), G Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), WR
Jordan Norwood (leg - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), Saf
Nick Sukay (foot - out)
Key Players: (offense) WR Derrick Williams, QBs Daryll Clark;
(defense) Saf. Anthony Scirrotto, DE Maurice Evans
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 377-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 267.6 rush/247.6 pass/49.8 points per game
Defense - 79.6 rush/172.6 pass/12.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+4)

How PSU will win -- The offensive line. Penn State's front has been the biggest key to averaging 49 points per game. Daryll Clark has three weeks to throw, and the running backs rarely get touched before reaching the linebackers. It will be up to the PSU OL to neutralize the PU tackles in the middle, and prevent any penetration. Fortunately for PSU, the middle of the line has been unstoppable. The defensive line. On the opposite side of the ball, but still up front, Penn State's defensive line is whole again. Last week, Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma were still working themselves back into real playing time. They will be full strength this week. Putting pressure on Painter and the PU pass game will help create down-and-distance situation beneficial to PSU. The line has been fantastic so far, considering all the losses, but was exposed a bit against the Illini. But Painter is definitely not Juice Williams.

What will happen -- Purdue will have trouble getting into a rhythm against Penn State, but will still move the ball. The lack of consistency will haunt PU all game long, as PSU will answer every score with one of its own. Eventually, Purdue won't be able to keep pace with Penn State, forcing the Boilermakers to move into come-back mode. Once that happens, the Penn State defense will pin its ears back, and tee off on Purdue's one-dimensional aerial attack. This game will be a good, quality Big Ten game, not a blow out. Both teams will come out to play, but one is just better than the other. It's that simple this week.

Prediction: No. 6 Penn State, 37 - Purdue, 28

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