No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 LSU, BCS Championship Game Preview

School: The Louisiana State University, (LSU) Tigers
Conference: Southeastern
Head Coach: Les Miles, 3rd year, 33-6
Last Game: Def. No. 14 Tennessee, 21-14
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 52-13 overall, 17-1 non-conf., 3-2 bowl

Key Players, Defense: DT Glenn Dorsey, S Craig Steltz, DE Kirston Pittman

Key Players, Offense: KR/RB Trindon Holliday, QBs Matt Flynn/Ryan Perrilloux, RB Jacob Hester

What to look for: D – Surprisingly enough, it’s the LSU defense that poses the most unpredictability in this game. Over the last four games, LSU gave up 186 ypg; over the last three, they gave up 226 ypg. Granted, Dorsey was basically a non-factor over the last few weeks of the season, but this defense should have been much better down the stretch. An unsung hero of this unit was Pittman, who notched 61 tackles, 12.5 tfl’s, 7 sacks, an interception and 14 qbh’s. If Dorsey isn’t 100 percent, I’m not sure Pittman can be a one-man show against OSU’s dominant offensive line. Steltz and the secondary absolutely have to get in the OSU receivers’ faces and play with a chip on their shoulder. That may be easier said than done, however, as four of Steltz’s six picks came in the opener against Mississippi State. Another scary sign is Steltz’s team-leading 97 tackles. No one in the secondary should lead the team in that category.

O – Flynn will most likely start, but it may be in LSU’s best interest to throw Perrilloux out there sooner than later, even for one series. If it wasn’t for Perrilloux’s performance in the SEC championship game, LSU wouldn’t even be in this game. OSU has the No. 1 defense in the nation, and it has nothing to do with inferior competition. Getting the running game going with Hester should be LSU’s top priority, even if it means going to the pass first. But the Tigers can’t win this game with only the arm of two sketchy quarterbacks. One of LSU’s biggest weapons comes in the form of Holliday, who’s taken back 18 kickoffs for a whopping 26-yard average and a score. He’s a world-class sprinter, and if LSU gets in a rut, he’s their man to pop them out of it with a big return. Plus, OSU’s kickoff return unit hasn’t been all that great. Getting Holliday some carries on offense could also add a spark to their offense, maybe with some reverses or screens where he can run in space.

ST – We already know about the ever-dangerous Holliday, but one player no one is talking about is LSU K Colt David, who nailed two field goals from 49 yards out. He was forced to try 32 field goals, making 25, and making good on at least two in 10 of LSU’s 13 games. P Patrick Fisher has been consistent all season long, averaging 43.9 yard per boot, with none blocked. Field position could mean everything in this match up.

C – Has Les Miles just reaped the benefits of a program built by Nick Saban? Not at all. He’s a bona-fide gamer who loves the challenge of playing in one of the best conferences in the nation week in and week out. Sure, he’s had a few questionable calls, but what coach hasn’t? While Miles will have this team ready, it will be up to the players to execute and keep their heads about them.

Interesting Stat: LSU’s points allowed per game, first five: 6.4. Points allowed, last eight: 27.8.

School: The Ohio State University, (OSU) Buckeyes
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Jim Tressell, 7th season 73-15
Last Game: Def. No. Michigan, 14-3
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 55-9 overall, 19-1 non-conf., 4-1 bowls

Key Players, Defense: LB James Laurinaitis , DE Vernon Gholston, CB Malcolm Jenkins

Key Players, Offense: RB Chris Wells, WR Brian Robiskie, OT Alex Boone

What to look for: D – This defense is not big on any stat other than giving up only 10 points per game. Butkus-winner Laurinaitis is a playmaker in big games under the spotlight, but when he’s not at his best, someone else on this defense is waiting to step up. A scary aspect of Laurinaitis’ repertoire is his tackle stat. Sure, he made 103 stops, but only 39 of them were solo. If LSU can get one-on-one match ups with him on a constant basis, it could get ugly. One constant this year has been Gholston, who’s terrorized opposing backfields for 13 sacks and 14.5 tfl’s. He’s very quick off the edge and should have no trouble against even a good line like LSU’s. OSU’s used their quarterback pressure to make it easy on the secondary, led by Jenkins’ three interceptions. But their weakness was shown in the loss to Illinois—mobile quarterbacks who can throw it deep on broken plays. Perrilloux, anyone?

O – A safe move for OSU would be to give the ball to Wells, a lot. If Illinois’ Rashaard Mendenhall was the Big Ten Player of the Year, then Wells was POY-lite. Racking up 1463 yards and 14 touchdowns isn’t anything to be scared about if you’re LSU, but stopping Wells should top your to-do list. If the game is put on the shoulders of QB Todd Boeckman, I’m not so sure OSU can pull it out. He has played extremely well this season, and should be a decent Heisman dark horse for 2008, but he has no signature wins where he’s been forced to play well. He could come out and surprise everyone, but I just don’t see that happening against a team like LSU. If Boeckman is forced to throw more than not, he will look for Robiskie and WR Brian Hartline. Robiskie burst onto the scene in 2006 on the receiving end of QB Troy Smith’s highlight clip against Penn State, and he hasn’t disappointed since. If he can’t break free, Hartline could fill in nicely with deceivingly good speed. But none of this happens if the offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running backs. OSU should feel confident in doing both with guys like Boone and Kirk Barton blowing defenders off the line.

ST – Everyone went into 2007 with the perception that this would be the year OSU goes back to “Tressel-ball” with special teams and defense. Well, the defense showed up nicely, but special teams weren’t as much of a factor. The specialists are good, with K Ryan Pretorius connecting on 17 of 21 and P AJ Trapasso booming punts all year. Just like all important games, field position will mean everything in this time. The only real weapon is punt returner Hartline, who’s taken one back for a score, but outside of that, no one has stood out.

C – Last year, OSU wasn’t ready, too confident and didn’t seem to want it as badly as Florida. This season, that’s hardly the case. Tressel is an all-timer of a big-game coach, and has proven his abilities under the spotlight. The reason this game will be so good is that both coaches will have their players ready.

Interesting Stat: OSU is 0-8 vs. the SEC in bowl games, but is 7-10-2 overall against the SEC. The average score in all games between the Buckeyes and the SEC is OSU 16.5, SEC 17.5.

GAME PREDICTION:

OSU 22, LSU 20

VEGAS:

LSU (-4) OSU

ACTUAL SCORE:

LSU --, OSU --