First Look: Oregon State Beavers
On Oct. 28, 2006, Oregon State did something no team had in more than two seasons—beat USC in the regular season. The Beavers rebounded that year from a 5-6 2005 campaign, to go 10-4, with that crazy win over arguably the best program in college football. In 2007, OSU continued their success by finishing 9-4 with a bowl win over Maryland. Even though you can never count out Head Coach Mike Riley and his team, 2008 doesn't look as promising.
Three things you should know about Oregon State:
1. Mike Riley is really freaking underrated – If you told me to name a coach who does so much with so little, I'd be hard pressed to name anyone but OSU's head coach, Riley. Sure, you can say guys like Greg Schiano and Kirk Ferentz. (Just to name two) But Rutgers is in a prime recruiting and marketing zone, and Iowa plays in the Big Ten, with tons of media exposure. Oregon State is in, well, Oregon. Who watches the Pac-10 east of the Rockies? Mike Riley took over for Dennis Erickson—not an easy act to follow—and has made OSU a team no one likes to play. Just ask USC, Oregon and Cal.
2. This team loses A LOT from last 2007 – Any time you have a running back like Yvenson Bernard, it's a scary thought to lose him. Everyone has to graduate sooner or later, and now with Bernard gone, the Beavers have to look at either an incoming freshman, or senior backup Patrick Fuller. (10 carries, 40 yards, 1 TD in 2007) On the defensive side of the ball, it's even worse. BOTH defensive tackles departed, leaving a gaping hole in a rush defense which surrendered only 70 yards per game in 2007. OSU also loses EIGHT of its top ten tacklers from 2007. Don't expect OSU to hold team to 306 yards per game again.
3. OSU wins in November, but loses in September – This is great for Penn State fans. OSU started 2-3 each of the last two seasons, but finished 8-1 (2006) and 7-1 (2007). Visiting Beaver Stadium the second week of the season won't help OSU improve its early-season record. But OSU's record pattern could mean two things: OSU plays really hard teams out-of-conference (most likely); the Pac-10 schedule is easy (less, but still likely).
I really like Penn State's chances to win this BCS team match up. What more, if OSU wins its opener versus Stanford, it will have been on college football's opening night in front of a national prime time audience. That will translate into tons of plugs for the PSU/OSU game the following week. OSU may not win even eight games this year, but ESPN will hype this game as a top-flight intersectional, inter-BCS
conference, and must-see event. Penn State may not blow them out, but a win is almost certain. Next week's First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
*Note: I tried waiting for my Oregon State guys to get back to me for their input on this game, but didn't want to keep you waiting. So, check back later today. I'll add in their comments once they come in.
Previous First Look entries:
Coastal Carolina
10 Commented on this story:
At least someone is talking about the actual season. Thanks.
Anyway, your assessment is correct. Oregon State appears to be very well coached and is a much better team at the end of the end of the year. Apparently they lost most of the D Line and all of the LB's.
They do have two sack masters returning on the D Line and a very good secondary. Also, you have to beware of Sammie Stroughter an excellent speedster. (WR-Returner).
We may beat them, even really beat them on the scoreboard, but they can present some problems. More of a worry in 2009 in Corvallis than 2008 in State College.
Here's a random OSU fan weighing in. I agree with some of what you said, but there are a few things you should know. On offense, though we lost Yvenson Bernard, we return our receivers, including James Rodgers, who was a big threat on the fly sweep last year and developed as a reciever in November, and Sammie Stroughter, who had a medical redshirt in 07 but was All-Pac 10 and All-American in 06. Also, we had 2 very inefficient quarterbacks last year, but both return, and should be improved. If they do show any improvement at all and if we find a freshman RB who can produce, offense should be vastly improved over last year.
On defense, we did lose most starters in the front 7 and you can expect that there will be a dropoff from last year's #1 rush stoppers. But the system that DC Mark Banker uses involves constantly subbing on defense, and the two top sackers from last year return, even though they didn't start last year. We're also bringing in the #1 JC recruit nationally, DE Simi Kuli. We also return our entire secondary so I would expect that the run defense will be worse than last year, but the pass defense should be outstanding.
I still expect a very competitive game next year, and I find it interesting that a number of preseason polls have picked Penn State and OSU right next to eachother in the 20-25 range. You should be very tough next year, but I don't think you can call this game an almost certain win. Whoever wins will have to work very hard to come out on top.
Great points beavbone. But you have to take into consideration this: Oregon State (or any Pac-10 team since No. 4 Arizona got whupped in 1999) has never played in an environment like Beaver Stadium. The only teams to beat PSU at home since 2004 are Michigan in 2006 and Ohio State in 2007--that's it. I'm not saying playing USC is easy. After all, I made sure to mention that OSU beat USC in Corvallis. Penn State is a different animal at home, and while OSU has every chance in the world to keep it close, it IS an almost certain win. If this game were in Corvallis, I'd be talking very differently right now.
By the way, kjac100... there is no return date set. Penn State doesn't go to Corvallis in 2009.
As another OSU fan I've got to say cashing in on this win prematurely is, well, assuming a lot. This is a program that tends to occasionally crap on itself early in the year but also it tends to get up for big games no matter the surroundings. At LSU we matched them blow for blow until a freshman kicker--an eventual Groza winner--slipped up and killed us. 2-0 against ND (bowls). Beat SC. Won at Oregon, which is not exactly a library when it comes to noise and atmosphere.
No doubt, College Station/Beaver Stadium will be loud as hell and full of white t-shirts, but I wouldn't bank on that putting points on the board. A home field advantage without a doubt, but I think this team will be ready. If things don't pan out at Stanford and we look like trash you should chalk it up without putting a second thought to it. As for now, I would look at this one as a push, what with our unknowns and question marks and your lineup getting trimmed back by injury and off the field stuff.
So yeah, currently you should give Oregon State a little more credit (not that it REALLY matters). This one's a push right now. Good game to watch though--this'll be a fun match up.
1. It's State College, College Station is in Texas.
2. Correct. White T-Shirts and noise don't put points on the board, but it sure keeps points OFF the board. If you take away garbage points, Penn State has allowed fewer than 11 points per game (10.96 ppg) at home from 2004-2007. Only one team has lit it up in Beaver Stadium in that time--Ohio State last season, and that was only 37 points. (and that included a Pick-6, so really 30 points)
Love the comments, fellas! I always welcome banter from the other side. Thanks for reading.
My apologies on the State College/College Station bit--not meant as a slight, honest mistake there.
All said and done I'm thinking a push is still reasonable. I think inexperience and depth will be an issue on both sides (from what little I know of PSU) so it'll be fun to see how we match up in flat out speed and size. I think OSU brings a lot of skill players and formations that are hard match ups. We'll bring a trio of receivers (Rodgers, Stroughter and Catchings) who can really stretch a defense, two with track speed that can really break things open.
On D we've been respectable (i.e.--do a good job of not looking stupid even in the toughest match ups) for a while now from DL to Safety. I'm trying to check out more on your Off. to see what this will end up looking like come game day, but again, when OSU teams come out as underdogs they tend to play up a level and I think that extra gear will be on display in Beaver Stadium.
Here's hoping anyway...
Excellent blog Mike!
I think your #3 point was right on. The Beavers have struggled early in the season for a long time. I've been to Beaver Stadium for a PSU game before and it is a tough place to play. I consider OSU's performance against LSU an anomoly. I think the OSU defense can keep them in the game, but mistakes on offense/special teams will kill the Beavers. However, I should note that the Beavers could be very dangerous for PSU. OSU's speed on offense and defense is excellent. Speed kills.
I am not concerned with OSU's new defensive front seven. Almost all of the returning players played a great deal last year. If the incoming JC players qualify for school, then they could offer added punch to a tough OSU D. OSU plays a lot of man-to-man, which can lead to giving up big plays early in the season.
Players PSU should watch out for:
Sammie Stroughter
James Rogers
Darrell Catchings
Keith McCants
Victor Butler
Keenan Lewis
Al Afalava
Al Afalava is arguably the hardest hitter in the Pac-10.
I don't know jack about the PSU football team, except that a bunch of guys have gotten into trouble with the law lately. I assume PSU will be fundamentally strong as usual on the field. Blocking and tackling is what it's all about.
L8, OSU Beaver Football Blog
http://go-beavers.blogspot.com
Dear "OSU Blogger"--
Did you mean RYAN McCants? Not to be nitpicky, but I'm just sayin'...
You're right though--losing starters in our defensive system isn't as big of a loss up front. The rotation we use gets a lot of fresh legs on the field and got a lot of guys involved last year. It works really well and our guys definitely "got it" by the end of the year (check out the Cal goal line stop on youtube).
It'll be a good game, definitely not a sure thing for anyone. Look for OSU to play up a notch and play well.
I think everyone in PSU and OSU land are worrying about the wrong things.
Our D should be fine if not quite as good as last tear. Mark Banker uses almost a hockey line change system and gets 15+ guys lots of playing time in each game. That means lots of fresh legs and the "new" guys actually have a lot of experience.
The RB situation will be fine with a JC RB (Francis) who looks a lot like Bernard and two stud Freshman.
The big concern for the Beavs is what has been their strength the last few years: O Line. Spring practice was littered with O Line injuries and we have to hope that Jeremy Perry can get and stay healthy all season. If the O Line plays well, the new RBs will do great and the QBs will be better than last year. If not, then sacks and getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage could kill our offense.
Don't know much about PSU to make a call at this point, but if the performance 4 years ago against LSU is any indication, I would be concerned.
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