How many wins for the Buckeyes?

Sorry about this, but I completely forgot to add the new poll to go along with last week's First Look '09: Ohio State.

Well, it's up now, and I'll leave it there for some extra time to get those votes in.

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2009 Offseason Rundown

It's going to be a long eight months until football returns to Beaver Stadium. But in the meantime...

• Each week, I'll post two regular updates, one on Monday and one on Thursday. These won't really be news items, but rather different analyses and observations about Penn State football leading up to the 2009 opener against Akron. Yesterday, I went over the projected starters for 2009, and this Monday I will release my initial top 25 for the upcoming season...

• Letter Of Intent day is always fun, and you can count on regular recruiting updates right through the big day. Although, without a Terrelle Pryor-type recruit, and with Kevin Newsome already enrolled, I doubt this year's signing day will be as exciting.

• As I did last season, I'll have as much Blue-White Game coverage as possible. I actually hope to expand it this year, particularly the post-game wrap up.

• And who can forget about the NFL Draft?!

• Then there's all the Big Ten Bloggers stuff to do, like pre-season picks, all-conference selections, and the like. That usually starts in June.

• One of my favorite things to write is the First Look series. It will launch sometime in early June, and give a brief preview (three things you need to know) of every team on PSU's schedule.

• In August, I'll have another annual installment of P.S. I know U., a series that runs down all the players, by position/unit.

... and the Blue&White Roundtables, preview magazines, the release of NCAA 2010, picking apart the main stream media's predictions, etc., etc., etc...

I'll ask it again. Who says the off-season is boring?

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First Look: Michigan State Spartans

There’s a team up north that is ready to blow up. No, it’s not Wisconsin. Nor is it Michigan. Why, it’s lowly old Michigan State. I’m not sure why, but I’ve hopped on the MSU bandwagon this season. No wait, I do know why. John L. Smith was the worst thing to happen in East Lansing since, well, there’s not much worse. He had a lot of flash, but was a bit too looney for the Spartans. Then in comes Mark D’Antonio. Former Ohio State defensive coordinator, former Michigan State assistant, fantastic head coach at Cincinnati. But most importantly, Michigan State is finding its identity once again. Punching opponents with the running game, playing disciplined defense, and led by a senior quarterback, this team is on the verge of something big in 2008.

1. Wait, is that Bill Bel... naahhh -- Mark D’Antonio never smiles. That’s a good thing for MSU. I haven’t seen a turnaround in team attitude like this since I started following college football. Under John L., MSU was all over the place with no direction. Quite the opposite under D’Antonio. In his first season, he managed to take a down-trodden program, known for its late-season implosions, and push them hard enough to reach the post season. No coach of the year awards, no fancy offense along the way. MSU did it by strapping it on and playing until the final whistle sounded each week. Sometimes that wasn’t enough (Michigan meltdown?), but other times, it worked like a charm (Penn State’s meltdown vs. MSU?). Almost half of MSU’s losses were within a touchdown. If D’Antonio can keep his players believing that MSU is no longer the little brother in Michigan (even though MSU lost in ’07), those close losses will turn into wins.

2. Ball catchers, anyone? -- All the parts would have been there for a fantastic offense, if WR Devin Thomas didn’t bolt early for the NFL and TE Kellen Davis had another year of eligibility. But, Thomas did, and Davis didn’t. So where does that put MSU going into 2008? Just fine. QB Brian Hoyer threw for 2725 yards and 20 touchdowns in ’07, and has the ability to match those numbers again, even without his primary targets from last season. Of course, this will largely depend on the production MSU gets out of senior RB Javon Ringer (1447 yds/6 tds ’07). Without bruising FB Jehuu Caulcrick (872 yds/21 tds ’07), can Ringer carry the load along? There’s no reason he should have trouble as the main guy. The offensive line is very solid, and should open enough holes. Yet if there’s one side of the ball no one will be paying attention to, even though they should be, is the defense. This is much more experienced that first thought going into ’08. The secondary returns three starters and the linebackers are quick and smart. Those two units were the cause for frustration last year, but should impress this season.

3. Schedule “Bears” down -- I’ve already called for Michigan State to pull the stunner at Cal to open the season. We’ll see how that one goes. But there’s much more to the ’08 slate than meets the eye. Even the two lightweights, Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic could give MSU fits. Ok, so maybe EMU won’t be so bad, but you know D’Antonio’s staff is quietly worrying about FAU. There are no breaks for MSU this year. Following Cal, EMU, and FAU, is a visit from Notre Dame. Away at a very dangerous Indiana team, homecoming against Iowa, then at Northwestern, all look like winnable games before the big showdown with Ohio State in East Lansing. Depending how that first stretch goes, MSU could actually be favored going to Ann Arbor the next week. If the Spartans don’t secure a bowl bid by that game, it could get ugly. MSU has to wrap up the season against Wisconsin and Purdue, then travel to a revenge-hungry Penn State crowd, where MSU hasn’t won since PSU joined the Big Ten.

Next week's First Look: Penn State's Bowl Options

-First Look: Indiana Hoosiers
-First Look: Iowa Hawkeyes
-First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes
-First Look: Michigan Wolverines
-First Look: Wisconsin Badgers
-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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Season heating up

As we all get ready for some college football, there's much to talk about. Tomorrow I'm releasing my Week 1 Top 25. Then all next week will be jam-packed with previews, beginning with the final First Look team preview, Michigan State. On Tuesday, I'll go through each Penn State unit: offense, defense, special teams and full look at the 2008 PSU coaching staff. Of course, there will most likely be some posting in between these, so make sure to check in with Zombie Nation every day for Penn State Football at its Finest!

Coming this weekend and next week:

Tomorrow [Aug. 16] - ZN's CFB Top 25 - Week 1 2008

Monday [Aug. 18] - First Look: Michigan State Spartans

Tuesday [Aug. 19] - PS I Know U: Offense

Wednesday [Aug. 20] - PS I Know U: Defense

Thursday [Aug. 21] - PS I Know U: Special Teams

Friday [Aug. 22] - PS I Know U: Coaching Staff

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First Look: Indiana Hoosiers

How crazy has college football gotten the last few seasons? Indiana went to a bowl game last year. Not since 1993 have the Hoosiers gone to the post season. And it couldn’t have come at a better time for the program. Head coach Terry Hoeppner--following a long battle with a brain tumor--passed away last summer, but he still left a strong footprint with the Indiana players, coaches and fans. Lost in other, more mainstream story-lines, Indiana’s bowl appearance was probably the biggest feel-good story of 2007. When Bill Lynch took over, he made it a priority to fulfill Hoeppner’s team motto to “Play 13.” He did just that. A 7-6 record doesn’t mean much for most other schools, but when a program endures 12 losing seasons, 17-41 record the previous five years, and the loss of its beloved leader, 7-6 seems about as good as 13-0. Now the question remains going into 2008: what’s next for the Indiana Hoosiers?

1. Lynch’s encore -- It was hard not to get caught up in what Indiana did in 2007, but I challenge anyone to name a tougher coaching job than in Bloomington last season. Lynch was rewarded with a head coaching contract, but the university must be patient with its new coach. This team is loaded with juniors and sophomores, which sets up nicely for a major run in 2009. Lynch is no stranger to being the head man, after leading Ball State to the MAC championship in 1996, and the MAC West title in 2001. He was also the offensive coordinator at Indiana for the last two seasons, and was the key architect of the Hoosiers’ potent spread-style attack. Now, if only Lynch can sure up the defense...

2. Speaking of defense -- Junior end Greg Middleton, Jr. emerged as the NCAA’s sack leader in 2007 with 16, on his way to 1st-Team Big Ten honors. The scary thing about this front four for IU is that three return on a line that logged more sacks than any other in Indiana’s history (42). This team will need every one of those sacks in 2008. With the loss of two very good corners in Leslie Majors (6 pbu, 2 int) and Tracy Porter (4 pbu, 6 int, drafted by Saints), quarterback pressure will make or break the entire defense this year. But all is not lost if the defense doesn’t shut out opponents, which is what used to be necessary (but never happened) for the Hoosiers to win. 2007 was the first year since 2001 in which Indiana actually outscored its opponents (305-298 in ’01, 412-370 in ‘07). Since the offense looks to remain a strength, the defense has to merely prevent the other team from lighting up the scoreboard.

3. Missing the Buckeyes -- Like Iowa last week, Indiana manages to miss out on playing Ohio State and Michigan in 2008. Ok, so not playing Ohio State is a very good thing for IU, but missing Michigan could be missing the chance to finally beat the Wolverines. Beyond that, nothing really jumps out about Indiana’s schedule for this season. There’s no reason the Hoosiers shouldn’t romp through their first three against 1A newcomer Western Kentucky, Murray State (AA) and Ball State. While the Cardinals look to be a good team in 2008, Indiana should get by just fine. Playing Michigan State at home in the Big Ten opener, followed by a trip to Minnesota, then home vs Iowa and at Illinois, IU’s realistic goal is to come out 1-3. That would set up IU for homecoming against Northwestern, then home against Central Michigan and Wisconsin before finishing the season at Penn State and at Purdue. The final stretch doesn’t look as promising as the beginning of the season, but pulling out a win or two (Northwestern and/or CMU?) and getting to 5-7 would keep IU respectable going into a promising 2009 campaign.

Next Week's First Look: Michigan State Spartans

-First Look: Iowa Hawkeyes
-First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes
-First Look: Michigan Wolverines
-First Look: Wisconsin Badgers
-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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Back to Work

I apologize for the light posting the last few weeks. Getting married is a busy venture. But now it's done, and time for some serious Penn State football. Later today, I'll have First Look: Indiana Hoosiers posted. The reason this week's First Look is a bit late (but hey, at least it's still up on Monday) is due to my purchasing NCAA 09 for my new XBOX 360. Yes, I tried to hold out with my PS2 long enough. EA Sports is clearly trying to cater to the new systems. Some have said the game is bad, with no real new advances. Well, I don't care because I've never owned any games in this series for a newer-generation system like 360. I will tell you that it's not all that bad. My favorite part of NCAA 09 is the custom stadium sounds. As a Penn State Blue Band alumni, I became very frustrated with EA's lack of true stadium audio atmosphere. Now, I have every little sound just right (I'm actually going to try to get my audio files up online to share), and the game sounds better than ever. Enough about that. Check back tonight for First Look: Indiana Hoosiers, and all this week as Zombie Nation kicks it into gear for the 2008 college football season.

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First Look: Iowa Hawkeyes

If you thought it was bad in State College, just take a trip out to Iowa City. Quickly forgotten by the main stream media, the trouble surrounding Kirk Ferentz & Co. has been nearing critical mass for some time. From drug charges to credit card fraud, the convictions have been constant and troublesome. Fortunately for this down-and-out program, there’s growing optimism for 2008. From 2002 to 2004, no Big Ten team won more games than Iowa. This year could see the Hawkeyes produce that way again, but it all depends on getting the offense rolling behind a good offensive line, a veteran quarterback, and a strong front four on defense. While there might not be the fireworks of 2002, or the magic of 2004, this Iowa team is very dangerous from top to bottom, and no team should take them lightly.

1. Is Ferentz worth it? -- Kirk Ferentz had a slow start in Iowa, going 4-10 his first two seasons. Then in 2002, it all came together with a co-Big Ten championship and a trip to the Orange Bowl. Two more 10-win seasons followed, and Ferentz was rewarded with a very hefty pay increase. Things haven’t, well, panned out exactly as the university administration had planned. Although Ferentz isn’t going anywhere, his 19-18 record from 2005 to now has caused some concern over the direction his program is heading. On top of all those on-field issues, the off-field problems have only compounded the tensions. All of which, however, will be quickly forgotten if Ferentz conjures up some of that old magic in 2008. Another coach of the year award is only 10 wins away.

2. It’s all about the pass protection -- You’d be hard pressed to find a more impotent offense in college football than the Hawkeyes’. They weren’t just bad, they were really, really bad. Did I say it loud enough? They were like Penn State 2004 bad! This year, however, could be night-and-day better than 2007, especially on the offensive line. That won’t be hard to do after giving up a conference-worst 35 sacks (-200 yds), and plowing the way for a mere 110 rushing yards per game. It was very sad watching Jake Christensen (2269 yds, 17 TDs) trying to operate with virtually no protection. It wasn’t even like the running game was able to take any pressure off Christensen. The defense will be excellent this year, provided that the linebacking corps steps up a little, and lead by the best set of defensive tackles in college football in Mitch King and Matt Kroul. If the offense can muster up more than 25 points per game in 2008, look for Iowa to land itself in a January bowl game.

3. Big boys off the rotation -- If you thought missing Ohio State and Michigan in one season is a good thing, just ask Purdue in 2005 (5-6 record). This year, Iowa manages to miss both those squads, and gets most of the tough teams in Kinnick Stadium. Unless Maine (I-AA), Florida International or Iowa State pulls a huge upset in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes should cruise to a 3-0 record before traveling to Pittsburgh, where the Panthers should be favored. A home date with Northwestern comes up before dangerous trips to Michigan State and Indiana. Prior to the bye, Wisconsin comes to town. It will be very difficult to for this Hawkeyes team to stay perfect heading into the final stretch of at Illinois, home against Penn State and Purdue, and finishing up at Minnesota. Eight of the games are winnable, but there will be no room for mammoth gaffes like Western Michigan in 2007 (28-19 loss with bowl bid on the line). This isn’t the easiest schedule, but it’s very workable for a New Years bowl game.

Next Week's First Look: Indiana Hoosiers

-First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes
-First Look: Michigan Wolverines
-First Look: Wisconsin Badgers
-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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I'm a Married Man, First Look coming Later

Well, I did it. It's almost hard to believe it's over. And with all the stress and headaches that came from planning and pulling off a Penn State wedding, it was all completely worth it. Tomorrow (Tuesday), I'll be leaving for a few more days. But after that, it'll be all about football. I'm not sure when today I'll have First Look: Iowa Hawkeyes up, but I assure you it will be done. I'm also going to try to get up some wrap-up of the last week, including the Taylor/Baker situation, Penn State's USA Today ranking, and more. See you all later!

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First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes

The Big Ten is slow, lumbering and outdated. The SEC is fast, agile and popular. Not exactly. If Ohio State returns to the national championship this year and wins it, they will have played in, and won more BCS title games than USC since 2002. No other team can claim the kind of success Ohio State has had over the last six seasons. There are the elite coaches, but very few come close to what Jim Tressel has done in Columbus. The scariest part is that 2008 could be the best season for Ohio State in decades. If this squad plays up to its potential, and comes close or beats USC in Los Angeles, you’ll see the Buckeyes in the BCS title game for a third straight season. There is no team in America less respected than Ohio State, and it could come back to haunt those nay-sayers.

1. Tressel Ball, now in HD -- In 2002, Jim Tressel used his tried and true philosophy of using defense and special teams to eke out 14 wins and a national championship. There was no superstar quarterback, so gaudy offensive stats or bloated point totals, just wins. Since Justin Zwick was basically booed out of his job following Ohio State’s 2005 loss to No. 2 Texas at home, Ohio State has been known as not only an defensive team, but a team that could light up the score board and out-score you. Tressel has adapted to what the personnel has given him, and in 2008, the cupboard is bursting at the hinges. He’s lost to Michigan only once, and should notch his seventh win over the Wolverines this year. Even more impressive, Tressel lured away the nation’s top recruit last year, Terrelle Pryor, who was set to start right away if he were to commit to Rich Rodriguez and Michigan.

2. Better than 2007? -- Last year, Ohio State wasn’t ready, or mature enough yet as a team to compete for the national title. Not after losing Heisman winner Troy Smith, two NFL wide receivers, and a star running back. They surely needed a year to build team chemistry and develop the raw talent. Unfortunately, in a way, for Ohio State, teams choked big time at the end of last season, and the Buckeyes were thrust into the title game. This season it won’t be a fluke. Chris “Beanie” Wells (1609 rush yds, 15 TDs) is back, and quarterback Todd Boeckman returns after a fantastic first season as a starter (63% comp, 25 TDs). Butkus winner James Laurinaitis (121 total tackles) leads a veteran defense which gave up only 12.8 points per game in 2007. Joining him is underrated linebacker Marcus Freeman (109 total tackles), and cornerback Malcolm Jenkins (4 INTs, 3 PBU).

3. Michigan? Who cares -- In any other season, the annual meeting with Michigan would be Ohio State’s biggest game. In 2008, it all comes down to the road trip west. Visiting USC in The Coliseum has spelled L-O-S-S for dozens of opponents the past six seasons. Ohio State wants to buck the trend. After two sure wins to open the year against Tressel’s old school, Youngstown State, and Ohio University, the USC game seems to be the only test until October. Following USC, the Buckeyes get layups against Troy and an improved Minnesota team, both at home. Then the tough stretch begins, with a visit to Camp Randall, then home against Purdue, away at Michigan State, and wraps up hosting Penn State in a night game. Get through October undefeated, and the Buckeyes are looking at their third straight trip to the BCS championship game. Don’t expect Ohio State to struggle with the final three games at Northwestern, at Illinois and hosting the Wolverines.

*Editorial Note to Readers: I didn’t want to harp on the obvious story line this season for Ohio State: the possibility of a third-straight loss to the SEC in the BCS Championship Game. I’m planning on a feature post dedicated exclusively to this possibility, so we’ll wait until then to tackle that issue.

Next week’s First Look: Iowa Hawkeyes

-First Look: Michigan Wolverines
-First Look: Wisconsin Badgers
-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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Ohio State will do that to you

I'll have the First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes up later today. However, since I hated writing about the one team that PSU has a very slim chance of beating I'm getting married this Saturday, I won't be posting the remainder of this week, unless something ridiculously important happens in Penn State football. Other than that, I won't be back here until Monday, the 4th. At that point, a new poll, First Look, and a weekly roundup will be posted. Also, probably Friday, the 9th, I'll have the first of three Penn State team breakdowns for 2008. The first part will look at the Penn State defense: depth chart, key players, etc. The entire month of August is like Christmas-freaking-Eve.

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First Look: Michigan Wolverines

You won’t find a more intriguing story line for 2008 outside of Michigan. Last season was considered by many to be a complete disaster, but lost in the mix were some very impressive highlights. The program is going into overhaul mode, with new uniforms, a new stadium, and most noticeably, a brand-spanking-new head coach in Rich Rodriguez. The offense will look vastly different than anything run in Michigan Stadium in the last, well, ever. The fans are preparing themselves for a worst-case scenario in 2008, but they shouldn’t worry too much. After all, this is Michigan, and even with all the problems, there are enough players to make this season at least palatable, if not surprising. I hate when people say “I can see this team going anywhere from [insert really bad record here] to [insert really good record here],” but in 2008, Michigan can only be labeled as completely unpredictable.

1. The “Snake Oil Salesman” -- Remember how pissed off Kirk Herbstreit was when Les Miles denied his interest in the Michigan coaching job? I’d be. Well folks, that was just the beginning, as no one could have predicted the firestorm coming when Rich Rodriguez shocked his alma mater and left West Virginia (60-26 record, 2 BCS bowl wins) in a cloak of secrecy for Ann Arbor. Any coach in the nation should be afraid to face RichRod on the field, but he’s never been so vulnerable as right now. Defections, staff shakeups and the graduation (and NFL Draft-entering) of some of the best talent this team had, will cause more than headaches in 2008. I don’t want to imagine how scary Michigan will be a few years from now. It could even happen next year, but for 2008, RichRod could lose some of his luster.

2. Starting from scratch -- Losing the career record-holders in passing AND rushing yards wouldn’t look good for this team even if Ryan Mallett (No. 1 recruit ’07) hadn’t transferred to Arkansas. Adding to Michigan’s stress is the mishaps of running back Kevin Grady, who didn’t know when to say “when,” and will most likely be in the dog house for the rest of this season. That leaves a very green running back contingent, but one that’s bursting with potential. Stepping in where Mallett should have been is probably Steven Threet. Although not as hyped as Mallett, Threet has great size (6’6”, 230) and has better mobility that Mallett. The defense loses its top four tacklers (358 total tackles), but the line returns intact and should take some pressure off the back seven. There are enough leaders on this side of the ball to keep things under control in 2008.

3. No more “Big House” -- Ok Michigan, you can still keep “The Big House” nickname, but you’re no longer the “biggest” house. Several thousand seats were removed from Michigan Stadium for renovations (actually, UM was sued because the stadium hasn’t been updated since the Ice Age, and didn’t have enough handicapped seating/accessibility). Unfortunately for the Wolverines, most of the toughest games come on the road, outside the friendly confines of Ann Arbor. However, opening with Utah, at Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Illinois won’t be an easy slate. Then, finishing out the season with trips to Penn State, Purdue, Minnesota and Ohio State, with home games against Michigan State and Northwestern sprinkled in, will present a formidable challenge for a Michigan team that could be looking for a break. With this schedule, even one key injury could spell disaster.

Next week’s First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes

-First Look: Wisconsin Badgers
-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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I'll Be Back

I'm taking a few days off to travel (yet again) to State College for wedding stuff, but regular posting will resume mid to late next week. Monday will still be First Look: Wisconsin Badgers, so check back then!
Oh yeah, remember to vote in the poll below. So far, it looks like Penn State should roll all over the early opposition. Let's hope so.

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First Look: Purdue Boilermakers

In this week’s First Look, the Purdue Boilermakers offer up a unique situation. With a departing coach in Joe Tiller, a dynamite quarterback in Curtis Painter, and more question marks than answers, the boys from West Lafayette could surprise more than a few around the Big Ten in 2008. Following the first losing season in more than a decade, the Boilermakers rebounded with consecutive eight-win seasons, yet managed to be far less than impressive along the way. Can this team overcome some major obstacles and send Tiller out on a high note? I’m not sure it will be a season to remember, but there’s no reason Purdue couldn’t go bowling this Christmas.

1. Win one for the Tiller -- Teams do funny things when faced with its coach’s swan song. Joe Tiller took this program from the Big Ten basement to respectability, seemingly overnight with his “Basketball on Grass” philosophy. In one of my all-time favorite quotes, Tiller responded to doubts about his spread attack working in the Big Ten, “Maybe they didn’t know what November was like in Wyoming.” The funny thing about Tiller is that he never gets the credit he’s due when it comes to molding quarterbacks. Drew Brees and Kyle Orton had what it took, and now Curtis Painter is looking to be yet another Purdue signal-caller to go down in the Big Ten record books, all thanks to Tiller’s tutelage.

2. And speaking of quarterbacks -- If there’s one player taking the snaps this fall every team should fear, it’s Curtis Painter. Not only does he have the arm to chuck it around all day (3846 yds ’07), he can take off is he needs to (164 yds ’07). The problem for Painter this season is that Purdue loses four of its top five receivers from 2007 (Greg Orton returns, 752 yds). The running game should be even better, as Kory Sheets (859 yds ’07) and Jaycen Taylor (560 yds ’07) both come back, but their production depends on an offensive line which has the talent for big things this year. None of that matters, though, if the defense can’t stop anyone. This is a unit which loses five of its top six tacklers from 2007, and first-round NFL Draft pick Cliff Avril (8.5 sks ’07). The Boilermaker defense had enough trouble in 2007 (26.5 ppg/389.2 ypg), and I don’t see things looking up for 2008.

3. Make or break early on -- The 2008 Purdue football team will know right away just how good they are with a ton of rough games early on. A very good Oregon team comes to town in the second week, followed by a trip to South Bend, where the Irish are looking to revenge last year’s loss. Then the schedule really gets difficult. Penn State (first team to shut out Tiller-led team, 12-0 ’06) is in West Lafayette, then trips to Columbus to take on a stacked Buckeye team and Evanston where Northwestern might not give in so easy after Purdue scored 21 unanswered 4Q points last year (W 35-17). Purdue has also had trouble down the stretch in recent seasons, and with games against Michigan, at Iowa and Michigan State, and wrapping up hosting Indiana, it will take a bit of Tiller magic to turn around the November slump.

I’ll be traveling back to PA today, so I’ll try to have something up by Wednesday.

Next week’s First Look: Wisconsin Badgers

-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini

I didn't pretend to know more than I did in the first four First Looks, as nothing substitutes for the intimate knowledge gained from playing the Big Ten foes year in and year out. Now First look will concentrate on the conference opponents, leading off with Penn State's Big Ten opening game, the Illinois Fighting Illini. If you told me two years ago that Illinois would go to the 2009 Rose Bowl, I'd say you were practically nuts. Well, Ron Zook and the Illini did just that, going from 2-9 and 2-10 to 9-4 over the last three seasons. And while the program is certain to post a winning record in their encore season, the Illini will probably have a tough time matching 2007's nine wins.

1. Champaign is a long way from Gainesville -- It seems like ages since Florida fans were calling for Ron Zook's head in The Swamp. The Illini thought Ron Turner was their ticket to glory after he lead the 2001 squad to the Sugar Bowl and an outright Big Ten championship. Things quickly turned sour, and after three straight losing seasons with no sign of improvement, Turner was let go. The school invested a lot in Zook's hiring, which paid off in the end. He proclaimed that Illinois' 63-10 drubbing by Penn State in 2005--a game in which PSU lead 56-3 at the half--would be their lowest point. It was. Not only is Zook a fantastic recruiter, but he's instilled a can-do mentality Illinois hasn't had since the Lou Tepper years. Don't expect the Illini to go anywhere but up from here.

2. Can the loss of one player hurt that bad? -- In this case, it might. Rashard Mendenhall arrived at Illinois with much fanfare in 2005, but didn't play much his first two seasons, gaining only 858 yards over that time. Then last season he exploded for 1681 yards and 15 touchdowns on his way to the Big Ten Player of the Year, Illinois' first since 1990. The problem came when Mendenhall declared early for the NFL, leaving quarterback Juice Williams as the leading returning rusher (755). None of the next three rushers cracked 300 yards in 2007, with Daniel Dufrene gaining 295. If you talk to Illini fans, they'll tell you there's excitement in the air surrounding Dufrene. After all, he was the guy who ripped off an 80-yard touchdown run in Columbus to upset No. 1 Ohio State last November. The Illinois faithful can only hope he can duplicate that kind of playmaking ability in 2008. But unless Williams makes leaps and bounds in his passing ability, don't count on the kind of rushing production Illinois has enjoyed the last two seasons.

3. The tough games just got tougher -- Most of Illinois' toughest games came at home in 2007. That's not the case in 2008, and combine that with the fact that Illinois isn't going to sneak up on anyone this season, don't count on the mammoth upsets of 2007. Missouri is returning most of its superstars. The Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin games are all on the road. And Ohio State is an even better team that it was last year. There are only seven games which Illinois should expect to win this season, but not even the home games against Iowa and Northwestern are certain victories. This team has nearly the same talent as it did in 2007, but experience is the biggest question mark. If Illinois can steal one in Madison, State College or Ann Arbor, fans should consider this season a success, as 2009 is shaping up to be a killer year for the Fighting Illini.

I'm out of town all this week (I'm actually in PA right now), so posting might be light. I promise, though, that I'll have something else up this week to quench some of the college football thirst.

Next week's First Look: Purdue Boilermakers

-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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Ok, so we're not the only site doing previews

Tim Curley finally grew a set this past year in dropping Arkansas State and replacing them with Oregon State. Penn State's schedule went from "they didn't play anyone" to "mediocre" overnight. Granted, it's not like this is going to be like playing USC, Oklahoma or Auburn. But it's a definate upgrade, which could pay enormous dividends in terms of getting TV exposure (not that Penn State really needs it) and winning over the pollsters come November. Last week, I looked at Oregon State in my weekly First Look. Today, CFN took a peak at the Beavers. (hehe) I recommend checking it out.

-First Look: Oregon State Beavers

-CFN's Oregon State Preview.

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First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)

Not too long ago, opponents spoke of playing Syracuse with fear in their eyes. Now, not so much. After three straight dismal seasons, the Orange(men)--they changed from “Orangemen” to just “Orange” a few years ago, but I’m still sticking to tradition--are looking for things to finally turn around. Greg Robinson came in promising change. What most ‘Cuse fans didn’t expect was a change for the worse. This program will get better, but won’t see the vast improvement in 2008 some were hoping for when Robinson was hired. This is an improved team, but the record may not show it.

Three things you should know about Syracuse:

1. Greg Robinson is starting to find an identity -- Syracuse was a super-stable program prior to the firing of Paul Pasqualoni, who had only one losing season (2002) from 1991-2004. Robinson hasn’t had a winning season since coming to Syracuse. Part of that problem was his attempt to install a west-coast offense, removing the old freeze-option Pasqualoni used with great success. Also, Robinson’s forte--defense--took a nose dive. In 2007, Syracuse surrendered 418 points, not what one would expect from a defensive specialist who led the Denver Broncos to two Super Bowl wins. Robinson has revamped his coaching staff, and things are beginning to calm down. If the administration is willing to give him more time, things will turn around.

2. Personnel losses, good and bad -- The unit which couldn’t stop anyone loses four of the top six tacklers, which might not be a bad thing. After that, only five of the top eleven tacklers are lost. On offense, the academic ineligibility of leading wide receiver Mike Williams is a crushing blow to what this team wanted to do in 2008. That, combined with graduated Taj Smith, virtually eliminates all the receiving yards from 2007. All is not lost, thought, as the Syracuse running game looks to improve greatly with the return of Curtis Brinkley, a better offensive line, and underrated quarterback Andrew Robinson. If he gets any time to throw this year (54 sacks in 2007), he’ll put up even better numbers than his 2192 yards with a 13/7 ratio.

3. The schedule won’t help the record -- If Syracuse is looking for a break, it won’t look towards the schedule, as away games at Northwestern, West Virginia, South Florida, Rutgers and Notre Dame are all near-certain losses. But remember last season the Orange(men) beat Louisville in Kentucky and Buffalo, with three-point losses against Pitt and Miami, OH. If Syracuse improves on last season’s 2-10 record, the season should be considered a success.

As promised, I’ve invited Orange::44 blogger Brian Harrison to discuss this game, which he was happy to oblige. So I give you the Penn State/Syracuse series through some Orange eyes:

ZN: How excited is the Syracuse fan base to finally play PSU again?

O44: I can first hand say that it is very exciting to get the chance to play Penn State again, both at the Carrier Dome and in Happy Valley. This rivalry was one of the premier college football games in the east and certainly was always an exciting and interesting game to watch. While I am a little too young (25) to really appreciate the hay day of the rivalry in the late 80's, I am still enough of a Syracuse and college football fan to have done my homework and realize that these were some of the best games of football in those days. Joe Pa would be in battles with Syracuse Coach Dick MacPherson, often with championship implications. While overall there is excitement in the fan base to play PSU again, it is a bit marred by the fact that Syracuse is still not as good as they were when the rivalry was peaking. Yes, Syracuse is improving (I say this not just as a fan, but as an objective observer), but it is not where it can compete at the level it enjoyed the past several decades. That, unfortunately is the back drop for this renewed rivalry game.

ZN: Which SU player could give PSU fits? (offense or defense)

O44: It is very possible that our running game could surprise a lot of teams next season. After a year in which Syracuse's running game ranked second to last in Division 1-A, Syracuse has their top running backs returning from a year in which they both had season ending injuries. Delone Carter broke his hip in preseason camp and Curtis Brinkley broke his leg a few games into the season. Both are good running backs and both will be at full strength for the start of the season. Syracuse also recruited the #1 recruit out of New York State in running back Averin Collier, so look for him to make a moderate impact on the running game right away.

ZN: Random thoughts on the game and/or Syracuse’s season...

O44: The game itself should be good. I imagine that plenty of Syracuse fans will pack the Dome, whether or not the team is good, as well as several people making the trek to Syracuse for the game from State College. I think there is a lot of anticipation building for Orange fans and there is buzz already starting, as it is probably the best game on the Syracuse schedule next season, at least non-conference wise. Like I said, I'm excited about it. I'm not sure what PSU thinks of playing Syracuse. I can't imagine you think that highly of the Orange anymore. Rest assured that Syracuse will be better in the coming years though, as we have started to recruit top talent to the program again. The week after Penn State, 1-AA Northeaster will be entering the Dome for SU's Homecoming game. If Syracuse loses this game, and Penn State absolutely blasts SU, look for Athletic Director Darryl Gross to more than likely fire Greg Robinson mid season.

ZN: What would be your point spread for the game?

O44: I would have to give PSU a 17 point advantage. While I would like to say that Syracuse's reputation should put the spread smaller, the truth is I like to play the favorites. I think Penn State will be favored in this game, but it is hard to say how good Syracuse will really be before the first game of the year. It could be that Syracuse will surprise people, or it could be that we are in for another season of heartbreak. Only time will tell.

Next week's First Look: Temple Owls.

-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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Busy work day; Syracuse First Look coming

It's going to be a real busy day at work today, so the First Look: Syracuse will be posted sometime after 4 this afternoon. Check back then, and sorry for the delay.

But for now:
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
-2008 Preview: Big Ten Bloggers: Pre-season Big Ten Poll
-2008 Preview: Zombie Nation's Summer 2008 Top 25

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First Look: Oregon State Beavers

On Oct. 28, 2006, Oregon State did something no team had in more than two seasons—beat USC in the regular season. The Beavers rebounded that year from a 5-6 2005 campaign, to go 10-4, with that crazy win over arguably the best program in college football. In 2007, OSU continued their success by finishing 9-4 with a bowl win over Maryland. Even though you can never count out Head Coach Mike Riley and his team, 2008 doesn't look as promising.

Three things you should know about Oregon State:

1. Mike Riley is really freaking underrated – If you told me to name a coach who does so much with so little, I'd be hard pressed to name anyone but OSU's head coach, Riley. Sure, you can say guys like Greg Schiano and Kirk Ferentz. (Just to name two) But Rutgers is in a prime recruiting and marketing zone, and Iowa plays in the Big Ten, with tons of media exposure. Oregon State is in, well, Oregon. Who watches the Pac-10 east of the Rockies? Mike Riley took over for Dennis Erickson—not an easy act to follow—and has made OSU a team no one likes to play. Just ask USC, Oregon and Cal.

2. This team loses A LOT from last 2007 – Any time you have a running back like Yvenson Bernard, it's a scary thought to lose him. Everyone has to graduate sooner or later, and now with Bernard gone, the Beavers have to look at either an incoming freshman, or senior backup Patrick Fuller. (10 carries, 40 yards, 1 TD in 2007) On the defensive side of the ball, it's even worse. BOTH defensive tackles departed, leaving a gaping hole in a rush defense which surrendered only 70 yards per game in 2007. OSU also loses EIGHT of its top ten tacklers from 2007. Don't expect OSU to hold team to 306 yards per game again.

3. OSU wins in November, but loses in September – This is great for Penn State fans. OSU started 2-3 each of the last two seasons, but finished 8-1 (2006) and 7-1 (2007). Visiting Beaver Stadium the second week of the season won't help OSU improve its early-season record. But OSU's record pattern could mean two things: OSU plays really hard teams out-of-conference (most likely); the Pac-10 schedule is easy (less, but still likely).

I really like Penn State's chances to win this BCS team match up. What more, if OSU wins its opener versus Stanford, it will have been on college football's opening night in front of a national prime time audience. That will translate into tons of plugs for the PSU/OSU game the following week. OSU may not win even eight games this year, but ESPN will hype this game as a top-flight intersectional, inter-BCS
conference, and must-see event. Penn State may not blow them out, but a win is almost certain. Next week's First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)

*Note: I tried waiting for my Oregon State guys to get back to me for their input on this game, but didn't want to keep you waiting. So, check back later today. I'll add in their comments once they come in.

Previous First Look entries:
Coastal Carolina

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