More lines released for PSU/Big Ten

In addition to the three lines released earlier this week--Oregon St. (-2.72), Syracuse (-25.74), and Temple (-15.04)--CollegeFootballPoll.com posted today the remaining lines for Penn State and the Big Ten. It really shouldn't be much of a surprise to fans that CFP is predicting Penn State to finish at 10-2. However, with Wisconsin slated to finish second--Ohio State is first--this would relegate the Lions to the Capital One Bowl. Basically, this entire season could come down to the October matchup with the Badgers, in Madison. Talk about must-see TV.

Here are some more thoughts on the latest lines:

The opener against Coastal Carolina is listed as a 36.25 spread favoring the home team. Following the three predicted wins against OSU, 'Cuse and Temple, Illinois rolls into town. The CFP computers, though, don't like the Illini in that match at all, listing PSU as a 9.62-point favorite under the Beaver Stadium lights. The next week, PSU travels to Purdue, where the Lions are a 4.34-point favorite. Now, that's not a huge spread, but it's more than a field goal, so I'll take it.

The first predicted loss is to Wisconsin in a night game at Camp Randall Stadium. If you think about it, the 4.33-point underdog Lions could pull this one out. You'll see why in a minute. First, the best line of them all. Penn State is an 8.20-point favorite hosting Michigan. Again, I know this is very early, and CFP changes its lines right before each game, but to start out as an 8-plus-point favorite is just outstanding. Lines mean nothing once the game kicks off, but they do count for something.

As I said you'll see, a 4.33-point underdog status at Wisconsin isn't all that bad when you consider Penn State is already listed as a 15.76-point underdog in Columbus. But don't panic yet. I'm not so sure this is a sign the Lions are going to be weak in 2008, as much as Ohio State is going to be really, really, ridiculously good. Losing to the possible No. 1 team will still keep the Lions high in the rankings. It's just a matter of preventing the blowout CFP predicts.

Finally, the last three games should be--according to CFP--a breeze. A trip to Iowa City (-9.87), and home against Indiana (-13.54) and MSU (-8.18) are all showing Penn State victories by comfortable margins.

Some seasons, you can almost see an upset game before it happens. There's always that one trap game just crying for the underdog to come through. This year seems different. Barring any Austin Scott-like trouble, or Jared Odrick-Jerome Hayes-Matt Hahn-like injuries, Penn State should easily reach the 10-win mark. So there it is, folks. If you wanted a don't-miss-this-game-unless-you're-on-fire game, Penn State at Wisconsin will be it.

*CFP has been freakishly accurate since its inception in 1993. From CFP: “The computer has picked the winner in 74.7% of all games played since 1993 (7,828-2,645) while beating the spread in 54.2% of those games (5,221-4,419)... The computer has predicted the national title match-up three times (1993, 1998 and 2005), and at least one contestant every year except 1994, 1997, 2001 and 2006. The team it picked to win the title did so three times (1993, 1998, and 1999), and lost in the title game four times (2000, 2003, 2004, 2005).” Yeah, I’d call that freakish.