The Computers Love Penn State

When the AP and Coaches polls came out this week, Penn State hovered around No. 16 overall. But when we look at the leading computer rankings--Jeff Sagarin's and College Football Poll--there's a huge difference between the human and computer rankings.

You will notice that in the current CFP, Penn State gets a hefty dose of confidence and a No. 8 ranking. Those looking to discredit the computers will say, "yeah, but the computers didn't 'see' the games." Sorry, that doesn't work. CFP has been one of the most accurate predictors of college football since the early 1990's.

One of my favorite aspects of computer rankings--a lack of bias--comes to the forefront this season, as CFP (Sept. 14 rankings, right) ranks the good SEC teams higher because they're good, not just because they play in the SEC. Also, good teams like UConn and USF are ranked generally higher, because the computer doesn't care that their conference is named the Big East.

What’s even more interesting is that the Sagarin rankings (Sept. 14 rankings, below) put Penn State even higher, at No. 7. But other teams, like USF (Sagarin No. 26), Missouri (No. 18) and Georgia (No. 5) are ranked much lower than conventional wisdom would suggest. But teams like LSU (No. 4), Cal (No. 16) and Virginia Tech (No. 11!) are very highly ranked.


As a Penn State fan, I can’t complain, but as a college football fan, this just doesn’t seem right. I know it’s very early in the season, and things will work out. But right now, the rankings are very flawed. A growing number of fans want the polls to release later in the season, say week four. That won’t happen, as it’s the media’s job to generate hype, controversies and promote college football’s leading conversation—the polls. In fact, the BCS has done one thing right over the years, moving its release date to mid-season. But this is why we love college football more than the NFL. It will never end… fantastic!