Tuesday, October 14, 2008

A one-loss PSU could share National Title

I was thinking today, if Penn State loses to Ohio State in two weeks, how can they win at least a share of the National Championship? Well, there are a thousand ways, but I thought this was the most interesting. Let's assume every MNC contender loses one game, if they haven't already. That's the BCS's and the pollsters' worst nightmare. Between the pro-SEC and pro-Big XII biases, those two would get in under my train of thought, relegating Penn State to the Rose Bowl. So how can they do it? Let's find out one way they could.

The set up, End of the regular season:

Penn State goes 11-1, loses a close game at Ohio State, which also goes 11-1.
Missouri goes 12-1, w/ surprising second win over Texas in Big XII Title Game.
Texas goes 12-2, w/2 losses to Missou, one in Big XII Title Game.
Florida goes 12-1 w/ win over Bama in SEC Title Game.
Alabama goes 12-1 w/ loss to UF in SEC Title Game.
Oklahoma doesn't get to Big XII Championship game, so they're out.
USC goes 11-1, can't escape that Oregon St. loss, and a weak Pac-10, so they're out.

The bowl selections:

Rose: Penn State (11-1) vs. USC (11-1) No one wants an OSU/USC rematch, so PSU is the default selection. Penn State beats red-hot USC by 14+.
Fiesta: Texas (12-2) vs. Alabama (12-1) Texas beats Bama in a good game.
Sugar: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Utah, or some other undefeated non-BCS team. Ohio State wins.
Orange: Big East winner vs. ACC winner. Outcome doesn't matter.
BCS Title Game: Florida (12-1) vs. Missouri (12-1) SEC fans will scream that Bama deserves a shot, but we'll all laugh at them. Missouri wins by a hair.

Ok, so that's where we are. Now for the reasoning. Missouri wins the BCS National Title, in a sloppy, close game over Florida, which makes the Bama loss to the Gators look worse, but Bama loses to Texas anyway, so it doesn't matter. Both SEC teams are out of contention. Texas recently lost to Missouri in the Big XII title game, and no team will win the championship without even winning its own conference. Texas is out. Ohio State, the Big East champs and the ACC champs were never in it. USC loses by a relatively big margin to Penn State. USC's out. Now, if Penn State loses a close game, I mean like 1-2 points, at Ohio State, and Ohio State finished the season on a dominating run, but can't get away from the USC loss, Penn State will have a fantastic shot at being named the AP National Champions.

In college football, it's all about perception. Penn State's loss at Ohio State will look better than Missouri's loss at home to Oklahoma State, especially if the Cowboys turn out to be a 9-3 sort of team. Penn State would HAVE TO beat USC by two touchdowns, and never let the game be in doubt. If that all happens, the Nittany Lions could very well be celebrating a some-what meaningless AP National Championship.

Remember, this is purely hypothetical, and one of the very few ways Penn State could win the AP title. If one of the things I said, does not happen, then it doesn't work. I get that. And I realize that all those other teams could lose games by the end of the season, which would get Penn State in almost automatically. But my scenario assumes all those teams lose one game only. So, if you have other coherent ideas of how PSU could win the AP with one loss, please comment. This is the kind of fun stuff we can talk about now, so let'er rip.

2 Commented on this story:

Anonymous,  Oct 14, 2008, 2:12:00 PM  

Your scenario can't happen, if we lose to OSU and we both go 11-1 OSU would be in the Rose bowl as the big ten champ. We'd be an at-large probably going to the Orange. The only way we get to the Rose bowl with our only loss to OSU and OSU being 11-1 would be for them to get into the championship game.

B.Lane Oct 14, 2008, 3:29:00 PM  

too much thinking to actually decide if that scenario could happen, but it doesn't really matter, the AP championship doesn't really mean much anymore in the BCS era, as you said. Whether we like it or not, think it's a flawed system or not, for now it is the way the nat'l champ in college fb is decided so that's all that really counts

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