Rumor mill, revved up: PSU eyeing Mizzou, Utah?

◊ So the rumor mill is starting to redline already, specifically speaking of Penn State's Oct. 10 non-conference matchup against Eastern Illinois (I-AA/FCS) possibly being replaced by a BCS conference opponent. This would be great, but we haven't heard much outside of the blogs, and one unsubstantiated bit by the Allentown Morning Call. Remember a few years ago, when Penn State was supposedly trying to schedule TCU? Yeah, how'd that turn out?

Some of the message boards this week threw around the possibility that an ACC team, North Carolina particularly, could be swapped in for EIU. That would make some sense, as it would be beneficial for both teams' recruiting along the east coast. But I was very surprised, if not baffled, to hear this from Rock M Nation today (actually, it was a 'fanshot' posted Jan. 23):

"Aside from some ACC teams, the two other teams strongly speculated to be in negotiation are Utah and the Missouri Tigers."

Uh, ok... I realize this is about as credible as a message board post, but luckily the blog's author doused some of the flames:

"I'd love to see it happen... but I’ve got a feeling it won’t on multiple accounts... Missouri AD Mike Alden has already said he’s pursuing an FCS team to fill the open slot in Missouri’s schedule vacated by the removal of SMU from the schedule. (RIght now, Missouri is actually sitting on 11 opponents, not 12.)... Missouri won’t go for the 2-for-1 because of the neutral site games mentioned above, which are already hurting the Columbia area enough as it is. Missouri already declined a 2-for-1 offer from Notre Dame recently, and I think the Missouri program is starting to view itself highly enough to feel it shouldn’t have to accept a 2-for-1 deal from anyone... Something tells me Nevada doesn’t want out of the home game in Reno..."

The strongest indicator that this won't happen between Mizzou and PSU, is that both teams want another home game, and you can't do both in 2009. However, you could turn that right around, and say that Penn State already has eight home games in 2009, so it wouldn't be outrageous to take the trip to Columbia, for a return trip in 2010. That would create a dynamite opening schedule that season, with a home/season opener against Missouri, followed immediately by a trip to Tuscaloosa. If that happens, that's the kind of schedule that wins big BCS points.

For now, we can't know exactly what will happen, which basically means this entire post was pointless and a waste of time. But what else is there to do right now?

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Penn State fans' new favorite team

Go Tigers! Do I really need to explain why?

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A one-loss PSU could share National Title

I was thinking today, if Penn State loses to Ohio State in two weeks, how can they win at least a share of the National Championship? Well, there are a thousand ways, but I thought this was the most interesting. Let's assume every MNC contender loses one game, if they haven't already. That's the BCS's and the pollsters' worst nightmare. Between the pro-SEC and pro-Big XII biases, those two would get in under my train of thought, relegating Penn State to the Rose Bowl. So how can they do it? Let's find out one way they could.

The set up, End of the regular season:

Penn State goes 11-1, loses a close game at Ohio State, which also goes 11-1.
Missouri goes 12-1, w/ surprising second win over Texas in Big XII Title Game.
Texas goes 12-2, w/2 losses to Missou, one in Big XII Title Game.
Florida goes 12-1 w/ win over Bama in SEC Title Game.
Alabama goes 12-1 w/ loss to UF in SEC Title Game.
Oklahoma doesn't get to Big XII Championship game, so they're out.
USC goes 11-1, can't escape that Oregon St. loss, and a weak Pac-10, so they're out.

The bowl selections:

Rose: Penn State (11-1) vs. USC (11-1) No one wants an OSU/USC rematch, so PSU is the default selection. Penn State beats red-hot USC by 14+.
Fiesta: Texas (12-2) vs. Alabama (12-1) Texas beats Bama in a good game.
Sugar: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Utah, or some other undefeated non-BCS team. Ohio State wins.
Orange: Big East winner vs. ACC winner. Outcome doesn't matter.
BCS Title Game: Florida (12-1) vs. Missouri (12-1) SEC fans will scream that Bama deserves a shot, but we'll all laugh at them. Missouri wins by a hair.

Ok, so that's where we are. Now for the reasoning. Missouri wins the BCS National Title, in a sloppy, close game over Florida, which makes the Bama loss to the Gators look worse, but Bama loses to Texas anyway, so it doesn't matter. Both SEC teams are out of contention. Texas recently lost to Missouri in the Big XII title game, and no team will win the championship without even winning its own conference. Texas is out. Ohio State, the Big East champs and the ACC champs were never in it. USC loses by a relatively big margin to Penn State. USC's out. Now, if Penn State loses a close game, I mean like 1-2 points, at Ohio State, and Ohio State finished the season on a dominating run, but can't get away from the USC loss, Penn State will have a fantastic shot at being named the AP National Champions.

In college football, it's all about perception. Penn State's loss at Ohio State will look better than Missouri's loss at home to Oklahoma State, especially if the Cowboys turn out to be a 9-3 sort of team. Penn State would HAVE TO beat USC by two touchdowns, and never let the game be in doubt. If that all happens, the Nittany Lions could very well be celebrating a some-what meaningless AP National Championship.

Remember, this is purely hypothetical, and one of the very few ways Penn State could win the AP title. If one of the things I said, does not happen, then it doesn't work. I get that. And I realize that all those other teams could lose games by the end of the season, which would get Penn State in almost automatically. But my scenario assumes all those teams lose one game only. So, if you have other coherent ideas of how PSU could win the AP with one loss, please comment. This is the kind of fun stuff we can talk about now, so let'er rip.

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ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 7 2008

The top remains intact. In this week's top 25, there was a ton of movement in the lower-15, but only two teams falling out of the rankings completely. I'm not sold on Pitt yet, as well as Virginia Tech. Michigan State and North Carolina enter for the first time this season. Unfortunately for Penn State, Wisconsin's taken sort of a nose-dive the last two weeks, which won't help the Lions' rankings after a win in Madison. But 2008 is still turning out to be an exciting season, and I can't wait for even more this Saturday.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. Oklahoma (1), [5-0, Won at Baylor 49-17]
2. Alabama (2), [6-0, Won vs. Kentucky 17-14]
3. Missouri (3), [5-0, Won at Nebraska 52-17]
4. Penn State (4), [6-0, Won at Purdue 20-6]
5. LSU (5), [4-0, DNP]
6. BYU (6), [5-0, Won vs. Utah State 34-14]
7. Texas (8), [5-0, Won at Colorado 38-14]
8. Ohio State (10), [5-1, Won at Wisconsin 20-17]
9. Texas Tech (9), [5-0, Won at Kansas St 58-28]
10. USC (12), [3-1, Won at Oregon 44-10]
11. Georgia (11), [4-1, DNP]
12. Utah (13), [6-0, Won vs. Oregon State 31-28]
13. Vanderbilt (21), [5-0, Won vs. Auburn 14-13]
14. Florida (17), [5-1, Won at Arkansas 38-7]
15. Oklahoma State (24), [5-0, Won vs. Texas A&M 56-28]
16. Boise State (19), [4-0, Won vs. Louisiana Tech 38-3]
17. South Florida (7), [5-1, Lost vs. Pittsburgh 26-21]
18. Kentucky (14), [4-1, Lost at Alabama 17-14]
19. Northwestern (25), [5-0, DNP]
20. Wake Forest (23), [3-1, DNP]
21. Connecticut (20), [5-1, Lost at North Carolina 38-12]
22. North Carolina (NR), [4-1, Won vs. UConn 38-12]
23. Michigan State (NR), [5-1, Won vs. Iowa 16-13]
24. Auburn (15), [4-2, Lost at Vanderbilt 14-13]
25. Wisconsin (18), [3-2, Lost vs. Ohio St 20-17]

Dropped Out:
Fresno State (16), [3-2, Lost vs. Hawaii 32-29]
Oregon (22), [4-2, Lost vs. USC 44-10]

On the Cusp:
Texas Christian (NR), [5-1, Won vs. San Diego St 41-7]
Virginia Tech (NR), [5-1, Won vs. Western Kentucky 27-13]
Georgia Tech (NR), [4-1, Won vs. Duke 27-0]
Notre Dame (NR), [4-1, Won vs. Stanford 28-21]
Pittsburgh (NR), [4-1, Won at South Florida 26-21]

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ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 6 2008

Well, I wanted to see which teams were legit title contenders, and I
got a bunch of answers. Because this was such a fantastic week of
college football, I decided to move up my top 25, and will keep it on
Mondays the remainder of this season. We all know which teams choked
Saturday. I'm a firm believer of ranking teams based on how they
played that week. I don't care if USC wins out, it will take mammoth
upsets the rest of the way (is that so far fetched?) for the Trojans
to reach the title game.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. Oklahoma (2), [4-0, Won vs. TCU 35-10
2. Alabama (12), [5-0, Won at Georgia 41-30]
3. Missouri (4), [4-0, DNP]
4. Penn State (5), [5-0, Won vs. Illinois 38-24]
5. LSU (7), [4-0, Won vs. Miss St 34-24]
6. BYU (6), [4-0, DNP]
7. South Florida (9), [5-0, Won at NC St 41-10]
8. Texas (16), [5-0, Won vs. Arkansas 52-10]
9. Texas Tech (14), [4-0, DNP]
10. Ohio State (10), [4-1, Won vs. Minnesota 34-21]
11. Georgia (3), [4-1, Lost vs. Alabama 41-30]
12. USC (1), [2-1, Lost at Oregon St 27-21]
13. Utah (15), [5-0, Won vs. Weber St(AA) 37-21]
14. Kentucky (17), [4-0, Won vs. W. Kentucky 41-3]
15. Auburn (19), [4-1, Won vs. Tennessee 14-12]
16. Fresno State (22), [3-1, Won at UCLA 36-31]
17. Florida (8), [4-1, Lost vs. Ole Miss 31-30]
18. Wisconsin (11), [3-1, Lost at Michigan 27-25]
19. Boise State (21), [3-0, DNP]
20. Connecticut (NR), [5-0, Won at Louisville 26-21]
21. Vanderbilt (NR), [4-0, DNP]
22. Oregon (24), [4-1, Won vs. Washington St 63-14]
23. Wake Forest (13), [3-1, Lost vs. Navy 24-17]
24. Oklahoma State (NR), [4-0, Won vs. Troy 55-24]
25. Northwestern (NR), [5-0, Won vs. Ohio 16-8]

Dropped Out:
East Carolina (25), [3-2, Lost vs. Houston 41-24]
Colorado (23), [3-1, Lost to Florida St 39-21]
Texas Christian (20), [4-1, Lost at Oklahoma 35-10]
Clemson (18), [3-2, Lost vs. Maryland 20-17]

On the Cusp:
Michigan State (NR), [4-1, Won at Indiana 42-29]
Virginia Tech (NR), [4-1, Won at Nebraska 35-30]
Georgia Tech (NR), [3-1, DNP]
Kansas (NR), [3-1, DNP]
Maryland (NR), [4-1, Won at Clemson 20-17]
North Carolina (NR), [3-1, Won at Miami 28-24]
Notre Dame (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Purdue 38-21]
Oregon State (NR), [2-2, Won vs. USC 27-21]

Past Top 25 Rankings.

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ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 5 2008

The top didn't move much again. Doesn't anyone else realize that USC has had two bye weeks so far? Just thought I'd mention that. Oregon shouldn't have lost at home, even without a quarterback. Auburn choked big-time. And Colorado is emerging as a real threat in the Big XII North. But this week will tell us a lot about which teams are legit, as most of the cupcakes are gone.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. USC (1), [2-0, DNP]
2. Oklahoma (2), [3-0, DNP]
3. Georgia (3), [4-0, Won at Arizona St 27-10]
4. Missouri (4), [4-0, Won vs. Buffalo 42-21]
5. Penn State (5), [4-0, Won vs. Temple 45-3]
6. BYU (6), [4-0, Won vs. Wyoming 44-0]
7. LSU (9), [3-0, Won at Auburn 26-21]
8. Florida (8), [4-0, Won at Tennessee 30-6]
9. South Florida (12), [4-0, Won at FIU 17-9]
10. Ohio State (10), [3-1, Won vs. Troy 28-10]
11. Wisconsin (11), [3-0, DNP]
12. Alabama (20), [4-0, Won at Arkansas 49-14]
13. Wake Forest (18), [3-0, Won at Florida St 12-3]
14. Texas Tech (14), [4-0, Won vs. UMass(AA) 56-14]
15. Utah (15), [3-0, Won at Air Force 30-23]
16. Texas (16), [4-0, Won vs. Rice 52-10]
17. Kentucky (17), [3-0, DNP]
18. Clemson (21), [3-1, Won vs. South Carolina St(AA) 54-0]
19. Auburn (13), [3-1, Lost vs. LSU 26-21]
20. Texas Christian (23), [4-0, Won at SMU 48-7]
21. Boise State (NR), [3-0, Won at Oregon 37-32]
22. Fresno State (22), [2-1, Won at Toledo 55-54(2OT)]
23. Colorado (NR), [3-0, Won vs. West Virginia 17-14]
24. Oregon (7), [3-1, Lost vs. Boise St 37-32]
25. East Carolina (19), [3-1, Lost at NC State 30-24(OT)]

Dropped Out:
West Virginia (24), [1-2, Lost at Colorado 17-14]
Nebraska (25), [3-0, DNP]

On the Cusp:
Vanderbilt (NR), [4-0, Won at Ole Miss 23-17]
Illinois (NR), [2-1, DNP]
Michigan State (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Notre Dame 23-7]
Virginia Tech (NR), [3-1, Won at North Carolina 20-17]
Georgia Tech (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Miss St 38-7]

*Coming Wednesday: Check out my chat with Paint The Town Orange, an Illini blog kind enough to cross enemy lines.

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Pick'em for the rest of tonight's games

No. 6 Missouri 35-23 over No. 20 Illinois 8:30 p.m. ET
No. 9 Clemson 29-18 over Alabama 8 p.m. ET
No. 11 Texas 27-20 over FAU 7 p.m. ET
Washington 24-21 upsets No. 21 Oregon 10 p.m. ET
Michigan State 28-20 over California 8 p.m. ET

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Big Ten Pick'em 2008: Week 1

This year's Big Ten Bloggers weekly pick'em is brought to you by Gopher Nation. Most of the games are against cupcakes, but there are some really critical games for the Big Ten's supposed tarnished image around the nation. Michigan State traveling to California, Michigan hosting Utah and Missouri squaring off with Illinois could each help tip the balance of power back to the Big Ten. I didn't go with any real upsets, but there are a few picks that go against conventional wisdom... or do they? Find out now.

(FYI: Each team name links to its respective official football site. I also used the USA Today Coaches Poll for the team rankings. Any time you see a ranking before a team name at ZN, it's the Coaches Poll rank.)

Syracuse vs Northwestern - The ZN pick: N'Western

Western Kentucky vs. Indiana - The ZN pick: Indy

Youngstown St vs. No. 2 Ohio St. - The ZN pick: Ohio St

Coastal Carolina vs No. 22 Penn St - The ZN pick: Penn St

Akron vs. No. 12 Wisconsin - The ZN pick: Wisky

Maine vs. Iowa - The ZN pick: Iowa

Utah vs. No. 24 Michigan - The ZN pick: Mich (yes, I actually picked MICHIGAN)

Northern Illinois vs. Minnesota - The ZN pick: Minny

Mich St vs. California - The ZN pick: Mich St

No. 19 Illinois vs. No. 7 Missouri - The ZN pick: Mizzou

Tonight (it might be very late tonight), I'll pick the rest of the FBS games. And tomorrow, the first game preview for 2008, No. 22 Penn State vs. Coastal Carolina. Damn I'm excited!

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ZN’s CFB Top 25 :: Week 1 2008

There was some big movement in the ZN Top 25 since we last ranked teams on June 13, 2008. The biggest reasons for some of these changes included more consideration of the strength of schedule, major injuries and player losses. So here you go, the Week 1 top 25 for 2008.

*Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result] - Comment on the team.
1. Ohio State (6), [0-0, DNP] - I know I’m inviting criticism for sounding like a total homer, but I realized that OSU has been suffering from prejudice. Because they lost the last two BCS title games, the media has been scared to peg the Bucks No. 1. I’m not scared anymore.
2. Georgia (1), [0-0, DNP] - It’s not a huge drop, but something just doesn’t seem right in Athens, Ga. It’s almost like this team is too good.
3. USC (7), [0-0, DNP] - Even with the Sanchez injury, the Trojans are the only team with talent like this. Now, it all depends how Pete Carroll puts it all together.
4. Missouri (5), [0-0, DNP] - This is a team not many are talking about on a national scale. I am. The Tigers will only meet Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, and in a battle of quarterbacks, I’ll give the (extremely) slight edge to Chase Daniel.
5. Auburn (8), [0-0, DNP] - I get this creepy feeling about what Tommy Tuberville is cooking down south. If the Peach Bowl was a true preview of the 2008 Tigers, look out SEC title game.
6. Oklahoma (2), [0-0, DNP] - The more I look at the Sooners, the more fragile they look. The offense will be fine by all measures, but the defense not so much, especially in the secondary.
7. Florida (4), [0-0, DNP] - The injuries are really killing the Gators’ mojo right now. Between TE Ingram’s ACL (not to mention FOUR other players lost to ACL injuries), and the fact that Percy Harvin hasn’t done squat this summer, don’t expect a fast start this year.
8. West Virginia (9), [0-0, DNP] - WVU has something to prove this season: that it can win without Rich Rodriguez. All the pieces are there to get to a BCS bowl.
9. Clemson (18), [0-0, DNP] - I haven’t seen another ACC team that could contend with Clemson’s potential. But how often have we heard that before?
10. BYU (11), [0-0, DNP] - The Cougars should coast to a 10-win record. But if they play up to their billing, BYU will win a lot more than the conference.
11. Penn State (10), [0-0, DNP] - Between the injuries and the dismissal of a few players, there are some growing doubts about how high this team can reach. The Lions are still the second best in the Big Ten, though.
12. LSU (12), [0-0, DNP] - Call it a rebuilding year in the bayou, but a nice Cotton Bowl bid is possible for the Tigers.
13. Arizona State (13), [0-0, DNP] - Maturity was this team’s biggest problem last year. It shouldn’t be so in 2008, but don’t exactly count on a magical BCS run.
14. Wisconsin (15), [0-0, DNP] - You won’t find a better running back/offensive line situation outside of Madison. Yes, that even includes USC.
15. Texas Tech (14), [0-0, DNP] - You can only outscore so many teams. Luckily, TT can do just that. Keep in mind, however, that TT plays in one of the toughest divisions in college football.
16. Virginia Tech (16), [0-0, DNP] - Count on the Hokies vs. Clemson in the ACC title game. Don’t count on the Hokies in that one.
17. Texas (17), [0-0, DNP] - I don’t see the Longhorns of old coming back in 2008. Hey, the Holiday Bowl isn’t all that bad... again.
18. Michigan State (25), [0-0, DNP] - These days, eight wins will get a team ranked, provided it played a good schedule. MSU has all that, and some, going for it in 2008.
19. Oregon (NR), [0-0, DNP] - With one of the best secondaries in the nation, UO is setting itself up nicely for a strong Pac-10 run.
20. Oregon State (19), [0-0, DNP] - Be sure to tune in for the Civil War this year, which could end up being a low-scoring defensive football game.
21. Pittsburgh (20), [0-0, DNP] - If the passing game does anything this year, Pitt will easily go bowling. The question is from there, how high will the Panthers climb?
22. Utah (NR), [0-0, DNP] - This team is finally out from under the 2004 Utes’ shadow. Now it’s their time to shine, and should do just that in 2008.
23. South Florida (NR), [0-0, DNP] - The problem is that the Big East isn’t as soft as everyone’s made it out to be.
24. Illinois (NR), [0-0, DNP] - Rose Bowl or not, the Illini weren’t good enough for the BCS last year, and sure aren’t good enough for it this year’s tough schedule. Harsh, but true.
25. Rutgers (NR), [0-0, DNP] - I’m going out on a limb here, but the loss of Ray Rice isn’t all that bad. Enough key players return to propel the Knights into the rankings again.

Dropped Out:
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Boston College

On the Cusp:
South Carolina (NR), [0-0, DNP]
Tennessee (22), [0-0, DNP]
California (NR), [0-0, DNP]
Mississippi State (23), [0-0, DNP]
Wake Forest (NR), [0-0, DNP]

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ZN Top 25: Week 13

This is it, the final weekend of regular-season college football.

1. Missouri (LW: 3) Would you want your team to face the Tigers?
2. Ohio State (4) The Buckeyes' loss to Illinois is better than...
3. West Virgina (5) The Mountaineers' loss to South Florida.
4. Kansas (1) This is still a great team that will, unfortunately, win nothing more than a bowl game this season.
5. Virginia Tech (6) Frank Beamer's finally got an offense to go along with his special teams and defense.
6. Georgia (8) The best team in a "down" year for the SEC. Yes, I said it.
7. Hawai'i (13) Week after week, still undefeated.
8. Illinois (12) If the Illini defeated any team ranked above them, would it really be an upset?
9. Oklahoma (11) This team is amazing when healthy, but take away their skill players and they're doomed.
10. Florida (14) Then you wonder how this team lost three games.
11. Boston College (15) Isn't it great that two former Big East teams will play for the ACC title?
12. LSU (2) Over-rated! (clap1 clap! clap clap clap!) A team should never be ranked No. 1 just because they're in the SEC.
13. Virginia (9) Still a great turnaround season for the Cavaliers, and 10 wins are certainly possible.
14. USC (17) OK, so you beat up on a good Sun Devils team. You want a freaking medal?
15. BYU (20) The Cougars are sliding up the rankings, completely under the radar... again.
16. Tennessee (NR) The win over UK might have just allowed Phil Fulmer to save his job in the SEC title game.
17. Clemson (23) Good game, but the Tigers, again, fell short of their potential.
18. Arizona State (7) No one in Tempe should be upset, this was a great resurgent year under Erickson.
19. Cincinnati (22) The Bearcats' three losses were by a combined 16 points this season.
20. Oregon (10) This team was toast after Dixon went down, good luck in the bowl game.
21. Texas (16) You never want to be the last team a coach beats, especially when that coach is alread fired when he beats you.
22. Penn State (24) I have nothing to base this ranking on other than that I still believe PSU is one of the 25 best teams in the nation.
23. Wisconsin (25) No way do I rank the Badgers ahead of PSU, after getting smashed 38-7.
24. Boise State (19) Don't feel bad Broncoes, no other team beat Hawai'i either.
25. Connecticut (18) A nice bowl win will make everyone forget about getting pantsed by WVU.

Dropped Out:
Texas Tech (21) Winning seasons are about all you can expect from a program like this, so with that: another good job by Mike Leach.

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