Preview: Indiana at No. 8 Penn State

Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 15. 12 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Weather Forecast: Cold, rain.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-1 (5-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Iowa, 24-23
Injuries: S Drew Astorino (hand - probable), QB Daryll Clark (concussion - probable), DE Josh Gaines (ankle - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT Jared Odrick, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 381-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 221.7 rush/221 pass/39.9 points per game
Defense - 99.3 rush/167.2 pass/12.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- Let's be realistic. If half the Indiana squad wasn't injured, I'd say this could be a real game. But with both starting quarterbacks hurt, the running back hurt, and most of the secondary in shambles, Indiana hopes it can hold Penn State to half-a-hundred in this one. On top of that, as if Penn State wasn't good enough, the Nittany Lions will come out really, really pissed off after choking away the Iowa game. The offense has been out of synch for three weeks, and the Jay/Galen duo want to regain the confidence of the team and the fan-base/media (no matter how much they tell you the fans/media don't run the team). I think we are going to see the run game, earlier, more than last week. Penn State made a bad decision to keep things buttoned up with Daryll Clark–injured or not–not getting any QB-draws. If Clark is full strength this week, he'll run. On defense I'm expecting either an all-out attempt to rattle the Indiana quarterback, with blitz after blitz, or the typical four-man rush while dropping seven into coverage. I'd place my bets on the latter.

Visitor: Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 3-7 (1-5 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Wisconsin, 55-20
Injuries: RB Marcus Thigpen (N/A - questionable), QB Ben Chappell (concussion - questionable), QB Kellen Lewis (ankle - questionable), RB Bryan Payton (N/A - questionable), OL Rodger Saffold (knee - questionable), OL Andrew McDonald (N/A - auestionable), OL James Brewer (N/A - questionable), LB Will Patterson (knee - out), S Austin Thomas (knee - out), CB Chris Phillips (knee - out), TE Brian Zematis (ankle - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB/KR Demetrius McCray, Any IU QB; (defense) DE Jammie Kerliew, LB Matt Mayberry
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 2nd season at Indiana, 10-13; 16th year overall, 91-78
Season Statistics:
Offense - 175.8 rush/202.6 pass/22.9 points per game
Defense - 175.9 rush/238.9 pass/32.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+2)

Why Indiana will win (ok, not really) -- Again, be realistic. Indiana is a shell of what it once was, never mind what it was last year. And it all starts with the injuries to Chappell and Lewis. If either one of those players could go this week, things would be different. Indiana will probably give backup Mitchell Evans some easy throws–dropoffs over the middle, in the flats, screens–to keep Penn State honest. But that will only work for so long. The Hoosiers are praying that Marcus Thigpen can go this week, as he's been the lone spark in the run game, especially with Lewis on the sidelines. Thigpen's averaged a healthy 6.7 yards per carry, with several huge runs. He's a legit track star, and can also catch the ball, tallying 228 receiving yards this year. Indiana could very well design a game plan directly around him. But again, that's if he's at full speed. On defense, the Hoosiers are wondering what this year could have been like without all the injuries. But it's not just that. Last year, Indiana had a bona-fide star in DE Greg Middleton (led nation in sacks). But he's been nearly MIA this year (8 tkl, 1 sack). DE Kerliew has stepped in nicely with 14 sacks, but imagine what the IU defense could have done if both were playing on that level? Basically, Indiana has no shot this week.

What will happen -- I'm going out on a lib here. I think Penn State will win this game. The fans and media think they were hurt by the loss last week, but really we have no freaking clue how badly it hurt for the players. Assuming they turn that hurt into all-out rage against Indiana, Penn State could return to its explosive offense and just-enough defense. Remember, the defense wasn't supposed to be the savior this year. The fans–mainly students–will show up late (not me, I never miss pregame) to this gloomy noon kickoff, which will be compounded by the rainy forecast. But Penn State will get the job done with a convincing home win, sort of a tune-up before the "Big Ten Championship Game" next week.

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State, 41 - Indiana, 14