Big Ten Bloggers '09 Preseason Picks

The summer months offer a plethora of predictions, previews and, well, bull crap. After all, what the hell else is there to do during the calmest of calms before the autumn storm. The Big Ten Bloggers usually gets together around this time of year to let loose with a heavy dose of "rabble! rabble! rabble!" quality, thoughtful preseason predictions for the coming Big Ten football season. As was the case last season, Lake the Posts was pegged to organize the voting. Today, albeit a little tardy, I give you the results -- including LTP's commentary -- of this year's round of voting, plus my own ballot.

LTP is a glutton for punishment. Each year around this time the collective ad hoc group known as the Big Ten Bloggers send backchannel emails asking who will host the ballot box for preseason awards.* [*ZN: That would be yours truly!] LTP is the last one with the finger to the nose and thus gets stuck tabulating each blogger's tallies. I did it in year one thinking my backchannel lobbying would prop NU up a few notches. The theory seems to be working in the awards category. Today I reveal the 2009 Big Ten Bloggers' 2009 Predictions. I've also added the LTP ballot at the end for good measure.

I will go through each ballot question, quoting the results from LTP, followed up by my own submission.

2009 Big Ten Bloggers' Preseason Awards:

Coach of the Year: Pat Fitzgerald

We're off to a flying start as the host gets his wish on this one. Fitz edged Jim Tressel by two votes with only Joe Paterno and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio getting any other significant votes. The buzz for Fitz continues and when you consider the curmudgeony nature of this group, this is saying something.

My pick: Ron Zook. Yeah yeah, make fun of the Zooker all you want, but I felt that his team is in the best position for significant improvement (record-wise) in 2009. The Illini went 5-7 last season. If Zook can get his team to win 9 or 10 games (especially 10), he'll be in the top three. Going from a losing season to a winning one will always make a coach a contender for "...of the year" honors.

Heisman Hopeful: Terrelle Pryor

Yes, I know, not much of a shock here. However, as BHGP so eloquently pointed out in his unsolicited essay responses, "This can only go to an offensive skill position player on a high-level team upon whom his team depends at a surreal rate. This necessarily excludes all players but two: Pryor and Royster." It is scary to think we all had the same thought and the ballot box was almost unanimously either Pryor or Penn State's Evan Royster. The only non-Royster/Pryor ballot came from Enlightened Spartan who cast a lot for Juice Williams.

My pick: Evan Royster. Terrelle Pryor won't win the Heisman this year. Period. He won't even make the top five finalists. Just beating USC won't do it this year. Pryor would have to light them up like no one has in years.

Royster got my vote because he's already proven he can do his job, and do it at a Heisman-level. I would be surprised if Royster fails to reach 1,600 yards this season. And with games against Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois, there will be plenty of opportunities to have that "Heisman Moment."

Upset of the Year: Tie - Michigan State over Ohio State & Northwestern over Penn State

Sparty was a popular pick to rebound from last year's buzzkill game in East Lansing. I'm not sure what voters saw in that absolute beatdown that gave them hope Sparty could pull off the feat in the 'Shoe. Then I realized I'd been duped by a string of voters - MSU doesn't even play Ohio State this year. This goes in the 'ol "I guarantee NU won't lose to Ohio State this year" bucket.

Surprisingly no love for the Illini who seem to always play the Bucks tough. Northwestern's Halloween match-up with Penn State was the other popular pick as the potential for puns in this one must have been too tough to pass up. Surprisingly LTP did not pick NU in this category and opted for Ohio State's September 12 win over USC as my upset special.

My pick: Michigan over Ohio State. Ok, so I went all hack-ish for this one. I was thiiiis close to picking Northwestern over Penn State. But I figured it would win anyway, so why not go out on a limb? I mean, come on, how many times can you lose to one team? Oh, wait...

Sleeper Team To Crack Big Ten Upper Tier: Minnesota

Good-bye Mike Dunbar and the spread, hello top four? Wow. Here I was thinking I was original picking Brewster's Millions (and Millions) of Twitter exclamation points to help bust through the Big Ten's elite. Not so. The Gophers inaugural season at TCF Stadium has high hopes from most everyone around the league.

My pick: Michigan State. I was the only non-homer to pick MSU to place third in the Big Ten last season. So, yeah, I'm kinda proud of that pick. But this year could be a different kind of third-place Spartans. While Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer were the main triggers on offense, their presence might not be missed as much as we think. The defense will keep getting better under Mark D'Antonio, and the offense will score just enough to get by.

I'm not at all high on Minnesota this year. Last year's record was inflated by a remarkable turnover ratio (31-19), in which the defense frequently bailed out a pretty anemic offense (23 ppg). But then again, the defense wasn't nearly as good as advertised, either. Remember those last four losses? Pretty ugly. While I think Minnesota will be a better team this year, they won't have a better record than last season, especially with their schedule.

Shonn Greene Award: Greg Jones, LB - Michigan State

The Shonn Greene Award goes to the player most likely to be a household name in December that you don't know right now. Last year you'll remember most everyone including BHGP were joking about the projected ineptitude in the Iowa backfield at this point. Shonn (who?) Greene then promptly put up a Heisman-esque campaign and catapulted Iowa to a New Year's Day bowl harrumph. This category was by far the most wide open as there were a slew of one vote-getters ranging from Purdue's Ralph Bolden to Minnesota's Hasan Lipscomb. No Wildcat received a vote.

My pick: Hasan Lipscomb (RB, Minnesota). How could I have picked him, after claiming MInnesota won't do too well? Easy, the offensive line will be very good, and the Adam Weber-to-Eric Decker combo will keep the defenses back. Lipscomb may not fall under the traditional "out of nowhere" label, because he's only a freshman. But I think he could surprise a lot of people this year, particularly with so many premier running backs departed from the Big Ten.

Most Likely to John L. Smith: Rich Rodriguez - Michigan

In case you missed the reference, this award pays homage to the Spartans' former head coach who just absolutely lost it at halftime of a game in his final season against Ohio State. It was the breaking point in a painful season that just signaled you knew he wasn't going to make it. This year's candidates essentially boiled down to a three dog race between RichRod, Minnesota's Tim Brewster and the Illini's Ron Zook. This is essentially a veiled award for coach on the hot seat, yet it has more of a twist. Indiana's Bill Lynch, the coach with the most job insecurity didn't even get a vote which shows you where Indiana football is in the minds of Big Ten Bloggers.

My pick: Rich Rodriguez. I just have a funny feeling about DickRod. He's either going to turn out to be the calmest head coach we've ever seen, or the most obnoxious. I'm counting on the latter.

Highest NFL Draft Pick: Arrelious Benn - Illinois

This category was the biggest laugher of the group. Rejus nearly pulled in the unanimous vote. Sean Lee and Novorro Bowman cracked the list, but it was all Benn.

My pick: Arrelious Benn. I know, shame on me for not going homeristic by picking a Nittany Lion. But wide receivers go very high in the draft, especially one like Benn. Bowman and Lee will be lucky to go before No. 20 overall. Sorry.

Must See Game of the Year: Ohio State @ Penn State

Again a runaway winner. Iowa at Penn State got some serious consideration but the definitive #1 vs #2 by the Big Ten Bloggers (see below) was the one. A non-conference game of epic proportions - USC @ Ohio State only received three votes.

My pick: Iowa @ Penn State.I went with the better story line. Yes, Ohio State @ Penn State is the mammoth showdown in the Big Ten (sorry Michigan, you're old news), but Iowa, in 2009, has more personal meaning to Penn State fans. And it should. Ohio State didn't ruin Penn State's national title hopes for 2008... IOWA DID. REMEMBER THAT.

Big Ten Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Iowa
4. Michigan State
5. TIE - Northwestern
5. TIE - Illinois
7. Wisconsin
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan
10. Purdue
11. Indiana

If this voting is any indication of the upcoming season's results, we're in for a helluva ride. The swing of votes after Penn State and Ohio State was like nothing I've seen. Take Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern, for example. Iowa received votes as high as #1 and at every slot through #7. Illinois had almost equilateral votes at every slot from #2 through #8. Northwestern received votes as high as #3 and as low as #10 and everything in between. Purdue and Indiana were consistently the cellar dwellars and Michigan was all over the map. Fun times for sure.

My predicted final standings:

1)Penn State
2)Illinois
3)Ohio State
4)Iowa
5)Michigan
6)Michigan State
7)Wisconsin
8)Minnesota
9)Northwestern
10)Purdue
11)Indiana

I'm not sold on Ohio State this season. I know, I know. "They don't rebuild, they reload!" But there's a difference between reloading an M-16, and reloading a musket. The Buckeyes could "suffer" though another 10-2 kind of season, and depending on how well Illinois does (which is my bet for the positive), a 10-2 finish could land you anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4. Although I pegged Michigan State as the sleeper for an upper-tier finish, that doesn't mean I'm going to definitively say they'll finish up there. I'm also not sold on Iowa, Minnesota (as we discussed earlier), or Northwestern. That being said, the top three could also finish with the same conference record (say, 6-2), creating even more controversy around picking a true No. 1.

Ok, now I'm officially fired up for the season!

See also: Big Ten Bloggers '08 Preseason Picks