Big Ten Bloggers '09 Preseason Picks

The summer months offer a plethora of predictions, previews and, well, bull crap. After all, what the hell else is there to do during the calmest of calms before the autumn storm. The Big Ten Bloggers usually gets together around this time of year to let loose with a heavy dose of "rabble! rabble! rabble!" quality, thoughtful preseason predictions for the coming Big Ten football season. As was the case last season, Lake the Posts was pegged to organize the voting. Today, albeit a little tardy, I give you the results -- including LTP's commentary -- of this year's round of voting, plus my own ballot.

LTP is a glutton for punishment. Each year around this time the collective ad hoc group known as the Big Ten Bloggers send backchannel emails asking who will host the ballot box for preseason awards.* [*ZN: That would be yours truly!] LTP is the last one with the finger to the nose and thus gets stuck tabulating each blogger's tallies. I did it in year one thinking my backchannel lobbying would prop NU up a few notches. The theory seems to be working in the awards category. Today I reveal the 2009 Big Ten Bloggers' 2009 Predictions. I've also added the LTP ballot at the end for good measure.

I will go through each ballot question, quoting the results from LTP, followed up by my own submission.

2009 Big Ten Bloggers' Preseason Awards:

Coach of the Year: Pat Fitzgerald

We're off to a flying start as the host gets his wish on this one. Fitz edged Jim Tressel by two votes with only Joe Paterno and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio getting any other significant votes. The buzz for Fitz continues and when you consider the curmudgeony nature of this group, this is saying something.

My pick: Ron Zook. Yeah yeah, make fun of the Zooker all you want, but I felt that his team is in the best position for significant improvement (record-wise) in 2009. The Illini went 5-7 last season. If Zook can get his team to win 9 or 10 games (especially 10), he'll be in the top three. Going from a losing season to a winning one will always make a coach a contender for "...of the year" honors.

Heisman Hopeful: Terrelle Pryor

Yes, I know, not much of a shock here. However, as BHGP so eloquently pointed out in his unsolicited essay responses, "This can only go to an offensive skill position player on a high-level team upon whom his team depends at a surreal rate. This necessarily excludes all players but two: Pryor and Royster." It is scary to think we all had the same thought and the ballot box was almost unanimously either Pryor or Penn State's Evan Royster. The only non-Royster/Pryor ballot came from Enlightened Spartan who cast a lot for Juice Williams.

My pick: Evan Royster. Terrelle Pryor won't win the Heisman this year. Period. He won't even make the top five finalists. Just beating USC won't do it this year. Pryor would have to light them up like no one has in years.

Royster got my vote because he's already proven he can do his job, and do it at a Heisman-level. I would be surprised if Royster fails to reach 1,600 yards this season. And with games against Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois, there will be plenty of opportunities to have that "Heisman Moment."

Upset of the Year: Tie - Michigan State over Ohio State & Northwestern over Penn State

Sparty was a popular pick to rebound from last year's buzzkill game in East Lansing. I'm not sure what voters saw in that absolute beatdown that gave them hope Sparty could pull off the feat in the 'Shoe. Then I realized I'd been duped by a string of voters - MSU doesn't even play Ohio State this year. This goes in the 'ol "I guarantee NU won't lose to Ohio State this year" bucket.

Surprisingly no love for the Illini who seem to always play the Bucks tough. Northwestern's Halloween match-up with Penn State was the other popular pick as the potential for puns in this one must have been too tough to pass up. Surprisingly LTP did not pick NU in this category and opted for Ohio State's September 12 win over USC as my upset special.

My pick: Michigan over Ohio State. Ok, so I went all hack-ish for this one. I was thiiiis close to picking Northwestern over Penn State. But I figured it would win anyway, so why not go out on a limb? I mean, come on, how many times can you lose to one team? Oh, wait...

Sleeper Team To Crack Big Ten Upper Tier: Minnesota

Good-bye Mike Dunbar and the spread, hello top four? Wow. Here I was thinking I was original picking Brewster's Millions (and Millions) of Twitter exclamation points to help bust through the Big Ten's elite. Not so. The Gophers inaugural season at TCF Stadium has high hopes from most everyone around the league.

My pick: Michigan State. I was the only non-homer to pick MSU to place third in the Big Ten last season. So, yeah, I'm kinda proud of that pick. But this year could be a different kind of third-place Spartans. While Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer were the main triggers on offense, their presence might not be missed as much as we think. The defense will keep getting better under Mark D'Antonio, and the offense will score just enough to get by.

I'm not at all high on Minnesota this year. Last year's record was inflated by a remarkable turnover ratio (31-19), in which the defense frequently bailed out a pretty anemic offense (23 ppg). But then again, the defense wasn't nearly as good as advertised, either. Remember those last four losses? Pretty ugly. While I think Minnesota will be a better team this year, they won't have a better record than last season, especially with their schedule.

Shonn Greene Award: Greg Jones, LB - Michigan State

The Shonn Greene Award goes to the player most likely to be a household name in December that you don't know right now. Last year you'll remember most everyone including BHGP were joking about the projected ineptitude in the Iowa backfield at this point. Shonn (who?) Greene then promptly put up a Heisman-esque campaign and catapulted Iowa to a New Year's Day bowl harrumph. This category was by far the most wide open as there were a slew of one vote-getters ranging from Purdue's Ralph Bolden to Minnesota's Hasan Lipscomb. No Wildcat received a vote.

My pick: Hasan Lipscomb (RB, Minnesota). How could I have picked him, after claiming MInnesota won't do too well? Easy, the offensive line will be very good, and the Adam Weber-to-Eric Decker combo will keep the defenses back. Lipscomb may not fall under the traditional "out of nowhere" label, because he's only a freshman. But I think he could surprise a lot of people this year, particularly with so many premier running backs departed from the Big Ten.

Most Likely to John L. Smith: Rich Rodriguez - Michigan

In case you missed the reference, this award pays homage to the Spartans' former head coach who just absolutely lost it at halftime of a game in his final season against Ohio State. It was the breaking point in a painful season that just signaled you knew he wasn't going to make it. This year's candidates essentially boiled down to a three dog race between RichRod, Minnesota's Tim Brewster and the Illini's Ron Zook. This is essentially a veiled award for coach on the hot seat, yet it has more of a twist. Indiana's Bill Lynch, the coach with the most job insecurity didn't even get a vote which shows you where Indiana football is in the minds of Big Ten Bloggers.

My pick: Rich Rodriguez. I just have a funny feeling about DickRod. He's either going to turn out to be the calmest head coach we've ever seen, or the most obnoxious. I'm counting on the latter.

Highest NFL Draft Pick: Arrelious Benn - Illinois

This category was the biggest laugher of the group. Rejus nearly pulled in the unanimous vote. Sean Lee and Novorro Bowman cracked the list, but it was all Benn.

My pick: Arrelious Benn. I know, shame on me for not going homeristic by picking a Nittany Lion. But wide receivers go very high in the draft, especially one like Benn. Bowman and Lee will be lucky to go before No. 20 overall. Sorry.

Must See Game of the Year: Ohio State @ Penn State

Again a runaway winner. Iowa at Penn State got some serious consideration but the definitive #1 vs #2 by the Big Ten Bloggers (see below) was the one. A non-conference game of epic proportions - USC @ Ohio State only received three votes.

My pick: Iowa @ Penn State.I went with the better story line. Yes, Ohio State @ Penn State is the mammoth showdown in the Big Ten (sorry Michigan, you're old news), but Iowa, in 2009, has more personal meaning to Penn State fans. And it should. Ohio State didn't ruin Penn State's national title hopes for 2008... IOWA DID. REMEMBER THAT.

Big Ten Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Iowa
4. Michigan State
5. TIE - Northwestern
5. TIE - Illinois
7. Wisconsin
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan
10. Purdue
11. Indiana

If this voting is any indication of the upcoming season's results, we're in for a helluva ride. The swing of votes after Penn State and Ohio State was like nothing I've seen. Take Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern, for example. Iowa received votes as high as #1 and at every slot through #7. Illinois had almost equilateral votes at every slot from #2 through #8. Northwestern received votes as high as #3 and as low as #10 and everything in between. Purdue and Indiana were consistently the cellar dwellars and Michigan was all over the map. Fun times for sure.

My predicted final standings:

1)Penn State
2)Illinois
3)Ohio State
4)Iowa
5)Michigan
6)Michigan State
7)Wisconsin
8)Minnesota
9)Northwestern
10)Purdue
11)Indiana

I'm not sold on Ohio State this season. I know, I know. "They don't rebuild, they reload!" But there's a difference between reloading an M-16, and reloading a musket. The Buckeyes could "suffer" though another 10-2 kind of season, and depending on how well Illinois does (which is my bet for the positive), a 10-2 finish could land you anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4. Although I pegged Michigan State as the sleeper for an upper-tier finish, that doesn't mean I'm going to definitively say they'll finish up there. I'm also not sold on Iowa, Minnesota (as we discussed earlier), or Northwestern. That being said, the top three could also finish with the same conference record (say, 6-2), creating even more controversy around picking a true No. 1.

Ok, now I'm officially fired up for the season!

See also: Big Ten Bloggers '08 Preseason Picks

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Review: 2009 Fiesta Bowl

Well, it was definitely more painful than the Rose Bowl. But we as a conference should be proud (even if for only a day) of Ohio State and the effort the Buckeyes put forth last night against the Longhorns. It took a miracle play by Texas to pull out the win, similar to the Michael Crabtree catch to down the Horns on Nov. 1. But let's not get away from what the Fiesta Bowl really meant.

The Bad - The Big Ten still sucks. Yup, I said it. 1-6 in bowl games this season will earn us that distinction. Sure, one loss was in overtime, one to the latest "best team" in USC, and the other on a miracle in Glendale. But we still suck. I have a strong inkling that it's been really just bad luck for most of these woes. But we still suck. Terrelle Pryor still needs a lot of work on passing, since that's what a quarterback usually does. Penn State and Ohio State couldn't hack it in the end, though the outcomes were a bit different. Were they really? Didn't Ohio State lose by a larger margin to USC, in the same city? Doesn't matter. We still suck.

The Good - The bowl season is over. Lost in a horrid representation by the Big Ten in bowls (except you, Iowa), was the fact that it was a very exciting conference race, and regular season. When was the last time Penn State and Michigan State met, in the last game of the year, with the winner assured a Big Ten championship? Never, actually. Ohio State was still in the thick of things, making the 13-6 win in Columbus even more special for Penn Staters. Let's just hope the bowl committees don't plug ANY Big Ten teams into those at-large slots in 2009. Best to just let us play a normal lineup.

Overall - Jim Tressell can still out-coach your head man. Texas was obviously exposed–as was the entire Big XII this bowl season–as a great team, but not a national champion by any means. But were they really? I think Ohio State just came to play, and could have done that to USC, if all the cards fell right. The Buckeyes will lose a ton of talent this off season, but are they ever really out of it? This game was a good stepping stone out of the Big Ten dark ages. Thanks, Buckeyes.

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Roses for the Lions! Penn State wins, 49-18!

No. 8 Penn State (11-1) won the Big Ten Championship, with a 49-18 demolition of No. 15 Michigan State (9-3) tonight in Happy Valley. Here's some initial thoughts. I'll do "The Bad" first tonight. You'll see why. The Bad: Daryll Clark didn't complete ALL of his passes. The defense didn't shut out Michigan State. Penn State didn't score 100 points. But seriously, I was a bit concerned that Penn State didn't have too much success running the ball. Although, when you can rip apart the secondary like Clark and the receivers did, you don't have to run the ball too effectively. Evan Royster had a few good jaunts in there, which is expected, but I'm still wondering why the staff runs Stephfon Green up the middle. He's not that kind of back. The run blocking could have been a bit better. I also thought the defense gave up a few too many easy throws for 10-12 yards. But when you have a multi-touchdown lead, you can give up a few first downs.

The Good: Practically everything I didn't mention above. Clark was hotter than lightening, as were the Penn State wide receivers. Above all, I really thought Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood had the best performance, as a group, of their careers at Penn State. Clark looked confident, and relaxed. The run game did just enough to keep MSU honest, and it worked to perfection. Once MSU was on its heels, 21-0, we all had a feeling this game was over. But the offensive explosion was all set up by the fantastic defensive performance from the opening series. I hope not, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jared Odrick and Aaron Maybin entertain NFL scouts. I know they can't do too much, but they'll have people look into entering early. You saw a PSU defense that didn't miss a tackle, shed blocks, and made big plays when it mattered most. The two best defensive backs, Anthony Scirrotto and Lydell Sargeant, had interceptions, and even much-maligned Maurice Evans got back into his game. As far as coaching is concerned, I couldn't have been more impressed with the game plan coming into tonight. On top of that, Joe Paterno didn't call off the wolves too early, allowing his staff to add style points to the board. Penn State committed to passing the ball, but looked much more prepared to execute the plan than it did going against Iowa.

Overall: I can't remember a more dominant performance over a good, ranked football team. And this isn't one of those early-season blowouts, where the opponent turned out to be a fraud. MSU is still 9-3, and on its way to a New Years Day bowl game. The Nittany Lions took the Spartans to the woodshed tonight, just when the nation, and voters, were looking for Penn State to impress. The last time Penn State beat Michigan State by this kind of margin was my freshman season, 2002, as Larry Johnson romped for 279 yards in the first half, crossing the 2000 mark. But that MSU team was bad, at 4-8. And that PSU team wasn't nearly this good from top to bottom. It was a very poor move by Mark D'Antonio and MSU to call timeouts, with the obvious intention to aggravate the PSU fan base. I like D'Antonio, but his image was just a bit tarnished after that move. Unless Texas Tech or Oklahoma blows the other one away by more than two touchdowns, Penn State's win over Michigan State will be the most impressive anywhere this weekend. Let's hope the voters see it that way, too. Now it's time to sit back, and hopefully watch the rest of the top-10 teams knock each other off. Good win, Nittany Lions, and congratulations JoePa.

*And be sure to check out my open thread I kept during the game.

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PSU vs MSU :: Excited? You should be!

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Big Ten Title Game: Your Complete ZN Coverage

Brought to you by (duh!) Zombie Nation.

I'm going to use this post as an "open thread" all day, posting my comments on everything from the ESPN Gameday Crew, to in-game thoughts and updates. So feel free to stop by and post your own comments about what's going on throughout game day, right here at ZN!

•Full Game Preview - No. 8 Penn St vs No. 15 Michigan St

•PSU vs. MSU :: The Land Grant Trophy

•ABC/ESPN Coverage Map

•Guest Blogger - The Enlightened Spartan (MSU)

•Blue & White Roundtable: Regular Season Finale

•Big Ten Bloggers weekly Pick'em: Week 13

•Reader Poll Results: Readers pick Penn State over Michigan State

*Note: The poll is still active, and there are
still several hours left, so you can still get your vote in!

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In case you needed a headache

Just wanted to get everyone up to speed on how the Big Ten championship thing is done.

Method to Determine Big Ten Conference Automatic Representative to Bowl Championship Series:

Effective for bowl games following the 2006-09 regular football seasons, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) will consist of five (5) bowl games: BCS National Championship Game, Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl. Participation by a Big Ten Conference member institution will be determined as follows:

a. BCS National Championship Game. In the event the conference has one or two football teams ranked No. 1 and/or No. 2 in the final BCS poll, these conference team(s) shall participate in the BCS National Championship Game.

b. Rose Bowl. Unless ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the final BCS poll, the conference champion shall participate in the Rose Bowl. The championship shall be determined on the percentage basis of conference games (tie games counts ½ win and ½ loss). If there is a tie for the championship, the Rose Bowl representative will be determined as follows:

-1. An ineligible team shall not be considered in the standings for determination of the conference representative.
-2. If there is a tie for the championship, the winner of the game between these two teams shall represent the conference.
-3. If there is still a tie for the championship, or if the tied teams did not play each other, the team that played more games against Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams shall be eliminated.
-4. If there is still a tie, or if the tied teams did not play each other, or if both teams played the same number of games against an FCS team(s), the representative shall be determined on the percentage basis of all games played.
-5. If there is still a tie, the most recent team earning BCS automatic selection shall be eliminated.
-6. If more than two teams tie for the championship, the same selection procedures shall be followed with the following exceptions:
--a. If three teams are tied, and if one team defeated both of the other teams, then that team shall be the representative.
--b. If three teams are still tied, and if two of the three teams defeated the third team, the third team is eliminated, and the remaining two teams shall revert to the two- team tie procedure.
--c. If three teams are still tied, and there is a tie game between two of the three teams, or if two or all three of the teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage basis of all games played except, if one or two of the tied teams played more games against an FCS opponent than the other tied teams, then said team or teams shall be eliminated, and the remaining two teams, if applicable, shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
--d. If three teams are still tied, and one of the three teams is eliminated through the percentage basis of all games played, the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
--e. If three teams are still tied, and all three teams have the same winning percentage of all games played, the most recent team representing the conference shall be eliminated, and the two remaining teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
-7. If four or more teams tie for the championship, the following selection procedure shall be followed:
--a. If one team defeated each of the other three teams, then that team shall be the representative.
--b. If two of the four teams defeated each of the other two teams, the latter two teams shall be eliminated, and the two remaining teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
--c. If three of the four teams defeated the fourth team, the fourth team is eliminated, and the remaining three teams shall revert to the three-team tie procedure.
--d. If there is a tie game between two of the four teams, or if two of the four teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage of all games played, except, if one or more of the tied teams played more games against an FCS opponent than the other tied teams, then said teams shall be eliminated, and the remaining teams, if applicable, shall revert to the two- or three-team tie procedure.
--e. If one of the four teams is eliminated through the percentage of all games played, the remaining three teams shall revert to the three-team tie procedure.
--f. If all four teams are still tied and have the same winning percentage of all games played, the most recent team representing the conference shall be eliminated and the three remaining teams shall revert to the three-team tie procedure.

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A message from Buckeye Battle Cry

Jeff over at the BBC has been a gracious opposing fan. He's smart. You see, Jeff understands that if Penn State is the Big Ten's only chance to redeem itself in the BCS national championship game, then the entire conference must rally behind the Lions.

From Jeff, yes, an Ohio State Buckeyes fan:

Dear Zombie Nation fans (and all fans of Penn State);

Last weekend's game was amazing. Going into the game, I knew it would be a battle. Hell, I knew that going into the SEASON, but I didn't expect the Lions to be this formidable of an opponent.

One play separated the Buckeyes from victory, and that one play went your way because you made it happen. Terrelle Pryor was stripped of the ball by an outstanding play, and the Nittany Lions sprinted to the loose ball and drove the field for the game-winning score.

We were not "robbed", we were not cheated, and neither team should ever hang their head after a game like that. Both teams played incredibly. But those types of games come down to one play, and when that play occurred, Penn State outhustled the Buckeyes and came away with the victory.

Our most sincere congratulations go out to you.

The Buckeye Battle Cry, like most Ohio State fans who are wise in the ways of football, holds no ill will to our brothers from the east. We wish you the best as the eventual new champions of the Big Ten.

To you, we say "GO GET 'EM".

Go take care of business in Iowa, then come home and beat the daylights out of Indiana and Michigan State. Get that 12-0, and get your asses into the BCS National Championship game!

And when you take that field in the title game, Buckeye fans will stand proudly by your side as you bring that trophy back to our conference where it belongs.

Last Saturday, we may have been enemies. But as you venture forward to represent the Big Ten, I proudly say "WE ARE....PENN STATE"!

Bring it home, guys. We're with you.

Jeff
The BBC

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Thought the Big Ten wasn't any good?

So, if the Big Ten is so horrible, and doesn't deserve any respect whatsoever, then why was it more popular than the freaking World Series? Yeah, I know it was the Rays and Phillies, but come on. I thought the Big Ten wasn't worth a penny. No so fast, my friends! From GoPSUsports.com:

"Penn State's thrilling 13-6 win at No. 10 Ohio State delivered the seventh-highest number of viewers ever for an ABC primetime regular season college football telecast.

According to data from ESPN, 7.35 million TV households tuned into the clash last Saturday night, as the No. 3 Nittany Lions scored 10 points in the final 6:25 to improve to 9-0 overall and 5-0 in the Big Ten. Penn State held the Buckeyes to their lowest point total at home since a 6-0 loss to Wisconsin in 1982 and the Lions won their 10th consecutive game, tied with Texas Tech for the nation's longest winning streak."

And if you want to take it one step further, how then, did the Penn State win over Ohio State garner more viewers than all but SIX ABC college football broadcasts ever aired? I for sure thought the SEC games, or the Big XII games would be so mammoth, so grand, that a pesky little Big Ten regular season game wouldn't come close. Ha!

Face it, ESPN, you need Penn State and the Big Ten. ESPN has been using us as a media punching bag for the better part of three years now, and have already begun your quest to doom Penn State's national title legitimacy. But what the national media has cleverly swept under the carpet, is that Penn State draws viewers, and boosts ratings. But I'm sure this will turn into just another version–well, we PSU fans hope–of 1986. Yeah, remember that year? Penn State was the weak Eastern football lot, without a chance in hell of beating the bigger, faster, future-NFL roster Miami Hurricanes–1986's version of this year's Texas, Alabama or Florida. Penn State proved them all wrong. Will ESPN look bad, yet again? Maybe... maybe.

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Preview: No. 12 Penn State vs. No. 21 Illinois

Kickoff: Sat., Sept. 27. 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN GamePlan

Weather Forecast: High 50s, Strong Chance for Rain.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 4-0 (0-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Temple, 45-3
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) Saf. Anthony Scirrotto, DE Aaron Maybin
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 376-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 274.2 rush/264.2 pass/52.8 points per game
Defense - 52.2 rush/170 pass/10 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why PSU will win -- The offense: Yes, as any of you could have predicted, I think the Penn State offensive juggernaut will roll on this week. There are plenty of good offenses in the Big Ten, five of which are averaging more than 30 points per game. Then there’s PSU’s unit, which is cranking out 15 more points per game than the next best offense, Illinois’. Daryll Clark is the best quarterback, and he’ll be supported by the best rushing attack in the conference. Penn State leads the Big Ten in all four major categories. (Total off., Pass, Rush, PPG) The run defense: Illinois may average 224 yards per game on the ground, but most of that came from a 399-yard day vs. I-AA Eastern Illinois. Penn State’s front four has played far beyond anyone’s expectations, and will put tons of pressure on Juice Williams. More importantly, however, is that Penn State has the No. 1 rush defense in the Big Ten, mostly due to the line play. Big Ten sack leader Aaron Maybin, captain Josh Gaines, along with tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu will clamp down on the Illini run game.

Visitor: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 2-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Louisiana Lafayette 20-17
Injuries: OL Ryan Palmer (foot - out), DB Miami Thomas (ACL - out season), S Donsay Hardeman (knee - probable), WR Jeff Cumberland (foot - probable)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, RB Daniel Dufrene; (defense) LB Brit Miller, LB Martez Wilson
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 4th season at Illinois, 15-24; 7th year overall, 38-38
Season Statistics:
Offense - 224.7 rush/244 pass/36.3 points per game
Defense - 163 rush/208.3 pass/30 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)

Why Illinois will win -- Juice Williams: If this guy has a good game, the Illinois offense will have a great game. He’s probably the most improved passer in the Big Ten since his freshman season (<40% comp). Williams can’t afford to turn the ball over in a hostile Beaver Stadium, and I think he can do it. We all saw what he did to Ohio State in Columbus last year. Just like then, converting third downs will be the absolute key to this game for the Illini. Turnovers: Penn State hasn’t been taking good care of the ball lately (4 lost fum.), and Illinois must capitalize on that. What should really get the Illini anxious is that most of those fumbles came near the goal line, which would set them up nicely for quick, cheap point. Illinois has to score, and score a lot, and turnovers are a great way to do it.

What will happen: Illinois has played in very intimidating places (Columbus vs. No. 1 Ohio State, maybe?), but they have never played in front of a Penn State White Out, at night. Just ask those Buckeyes how things went in 2005. I think Illinois will be able to move the ball, but fail to score enough touchdowns. Penn State, on the other hand, should be able to march up and down the field, almost at will against a porous Illini defense--dead last in the Big Ten in PPG. I said earlier that Juice Williams will have to play a near-perfect game to win this one... he won’t. Penn State isn’t taking Illinois for granted the way Ohio State did in 2007, and everyone knows these are two very good teams. Evan Royster will have the national-spotlight game to thrust himself into dark horse Heisman contention. But I think the Penn State offense will prove to college football that they’re for real.

Prediction: No. 12 Penn State, 44 - No. 21 Illinois, 23

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Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable :: The Rebound

Lake the Posts asks the questions in week’s Big Ten Bloggers Round Table.

1)The national media is using the Big Ten Conference as a punching bag in 2008 ranking us somewhere between the Big East and the MAC. Based on Ohio State's no-show, Purdue's "APPLE!!!" and Michigan's debacle, it is redemption week in Big Ten Country. However, several teams have very respectable, yet no-name teams (ie. Troy, Central Michigan, Ball State). Tell us how the Big Ten will respond this week in the final week before conference play.

ZN: This will be the most underrated week of the season. (See schedule, right) Practically every Big Ten opponent has gotten a headline this year. Ball State has remained quiet, but they did get some preseason hype in the MAC. Easiest Game this week: Temple @ PSU; Toughest Game this week: CMU @ Purdue; Big Ten MUST WIN: Iowa @ Pitt. Best case scenario: 8-0; Worst case: 2-6. I think the Big Ten comes out to play this week before conference openers.

2)The conference standings look like someone took the 2007 results and flipped it upside down.  Which of the undefeated teams are contenders and which are pretenders (another way of saying which teams have put lipstick on a pig)? Recalibrate your preseason rankings and tell us who the conference favorites are now.

ZN: Contenders: Penn State, Wisconsin; Pretenders: Indiana, Minnesota, Northwester; Could go either way: Iowa. The jury is still out on the Hawkeyes, but that’s probably due to their lack of media coverage. In two weeks or so I’ll let you know on that one. But I must say, EVERYONE called me crazy for picking Michigan No. 10 for 2008 (See my preseason predicted finish, right). While the Wolverines aren’t going to fall that far (I think ND was a fluke, even though I called that upset, thank you very much), currently they are DEAD LAST in the Big Ten. But if I had to change it, I would say Wisconsin would bump up to No. 2, and Ohio State down to No. 3. Purdue would move a bit lower, maybe to No. 7. However, overall I think I hit the nail on the head this preseason.

3)Javon Ringer has emerged as the early season best-bet Heisman hopeful from the Big Ten.  Real deal or non-conference smoke screen?  Does anyone from the Big Ten have a prayer for the Heisman, or is it too late?

ZN: I think Ringer is the best running back only when getting his 30-35 carries per game. If you asked me, right now, to name the top-three Big Ten rushers: No. 1 Evan Royster - Sorry folks, you whether you like it or not, Royster leads the conference’s starting RBs with a ridiculous 8.1 ypc, and only a handful of his 38 carries were after halftime. PJ Hill has 70 carries so far, and Ringer has 104. If Royster had those carries, he would have 567 and 842 yards, respectively. I’m not knocking Ringer or Hill, as they are two of the premier backs in the entire nation. But I think Royster hasn’t gotten due credit, just because Joe Paterno takes him out right after halftime. Check it out for yourself:

To address the Heisman race, I don’t think a running back will win it at all this season. Quarterbacks are the sexy pick, and with guys like Chase Daniel, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford, guys like Ringer, Royster and Hill have no shot. They could place, but not win.

4)After three weeks it is time to give your team a new slogan.  What is it and why is it what it is?

ZN: “I should have been playing football, but I got high...” - If you don't know what that means, you aren't a college football fan.

Or for a more serious one...

“So what?” - So what? Everyone called us dead after Sean Lee went down, Chris Bell, Phil Taylor, Chris Baker were kicked off the team, and Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma got a few games to think about what they've done. Not to mention that confidence in the new offense was very low, and that we were just benefiting from a weak non-conference slate. So what?

5)By now, you've likely adopted a favorite non Big Ten team to watch.  Flex your football worldliness by convincing your fellow Big Ten kool-aid drinkers to watch your "other" team. 

ZN: I really like Missouri. But I put so much effort into the first four questions, I don’t really feel like giving it my all for this one. Chase Daniel is the man, and should he keep it up, will win the Heisman. The rest of the offense is incredible, and the defense is vastly underrated. Plus, if you like big games, just wait until the Big XII Championship game, when Mizzou will most likely face off with Oklahoma. They could be two top-five teams at that point. Whoa.

So that’s it for this week’s Big Ten Bloggers Round Table. Go State.

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Dodd picks PSU 6th; Not a surprise

Why am I not shocked that Dennis Dodd pegged PSU to finish 6th in the Big Ten this year?

"6. Penn State: The Big Ten is down? Not in State College. Penn State has won three consecutive bowl games, including the Orange Bowl over Florida State. You've got to hand it to Joe. After that little downturn a few years back, he spit in the eyes of his critics and reloaded. All that off-the-field stuff will fade away if Paterno can win nine. It would be nice if receiver Derrick Williams finally fulfills his promise. Five career receiving touchdowns? C'mon, D-Will. Linebacker Chris Colasanti gets his chance after the injury to star Sean Lee."

I'm not quite sure where he was going with that. On one hand, Dodd said PSU has held up its end of the line when everyone's calling the Big Ten inferior. Yet, then he picks PSU sixth. Actually, it's not something to get upset about as fans. I mean, how can you take a prediction like this seriously when you see how he picked the other teams...

"5. Michigan: Sorry, Blue. Ten-win seasons are a thing of the past until Rich Rodriguez gets his spread up and running. There will be confusion, there will be losses, and there will be grumbling fans by the end of the season. Everything is going to be fine, just not right away. Call it 7-5 or 8-4."

So that would mean PSU finishes somewhere around 7-5? I think the best part of the preseason is how worked up the writers try to get their readers. All you have to do is pick one team too low, or another too high, and there you have it. In fact, I believe I'm feeding into my own criticism as I write this. But it sure is fun. Moving on...

"2. Illinois: The ugly stepchild of the Chicago media market has developed into a top 15 program without many folks noticing. Forget the Rose Bowl. That was a Southern California home game. Illinois is still on the upturn. The season could take off quickly with a victory over Missouri in the opener."

Wow. Sorry, but wow. Illinois will definitely not creep up on people as they did in 2007. And sorry, folks, but when you lose your main weapon on offense, it's going to be tough to fill that gap. But I'm not so sure it's the replacement of Mendenhall that will be the Illini's biggest problem. It will be playing all the tough games away from Champaign, against teams that were burned by Zook's spread offense last year, teams that won't be caught off guard again. Again, this seems like a sensationalist prediction. To top that off, CBS didn't even include PSU on its "who will win the Big Ten" reader poll.

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Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Picks!

(Looking for the Big Ten Bloggers' 2009 Picks? Click HERE)

So, after berating the pre-season magazines for their lack of intelligent analysis and predictions, LTP took it upon himself to gather the fellow Big Ten Bloggers and tap into a collective voice of reason to hear from the true fans who know these teams inside and out.

So, without further ado, here are the inaugural picks with some calling out of certain bloggers votes to stir the collective pot:

(All commentary by LTP)

1 - Ohio State

The Buckeyes received the first place nod from every Big Ten Blogger with the exception of Maize & Blue Nation who opted for the Nittany Lions. About as much of a surprise as Ryan Field being out of hot dogs at halftime for the Big Ten home opener.

2 - Penn State

After Ohio State's 1-slot, it became a wild west of voting as there was as much disparity here as in different preseason magazines, but the Nittany Lions have this post to look forward to as a new "list" to concentrate on. Penn State received no vote lower than 5th place as Enlightened Spartan and Off the Tracks were the biggest Penn State pessimists.

3 - Wisconsin

The Badgers dropped to third by the skin of Bucky's fur - 1 vote separates Penn State and Wisconsin. Like Penn State, no voters had the Badgers any lower than 5th with MGoBlog being the culprit/non-believer.

4 - Illinois

Amazingly, the Illini's Rose Bowl halo effect continues, especially when you consider there is currently no Illini blogger on board as part of the BTBers. The Illini received six 7th place votes, yet still managed to emerge in the upper tier with MGoBlog trying to secure as many links as possible (as if he needs them!) from LTP for his controversial picks. MGoBlog has Illini back in BCS land with a projected second place finish in the Big Ten.

5 - Michigan State

Enlightened Spartan displayed some homerism with a "3" pick, but he was saved by Boiled Sports and Zombie Nation who seconded and thirded (sic) that emotion. Sparty received votes all over the map from 3 through 8. Enlightened Spartan also wins the award for most creative names for his submissions as LTP had to use the ES decoder to decipher entries like "yellow bellies" (Michigan).

6 - Michigan

The Wolverines emerge the inaugural predictions as the official wildcard team. The RichRods secured votes as high as 3, as low as 10 and every slot in between. MGoBlog went conservative (6), Maize & Blue Nation went homerific (3) and LTP went Lou Holtzian (3).

7 - Iowa

What's in the water in Happy Valley? Perhaps the recent Ferentz rumors/sightings combined with the kindred spirit of Fulmer Cup Overfloweth has bonded the Big Ten border state schools. Black Shoe Diaries and Zombie Nation went the highest with 4, while the Hawkeyes received a few double digit finishes, including one 11th place vote from rival Gopher Nation. Where the hell are the Cats? C'mon...I put this damn thing together and this is the love I get?

8 - Purdue

The Joe Tiller farewell tour didn't have many takers as no one picked the Boilermakers any higher than 5th. So much for QB experience eh?

9 - Northwestern

Thank you for nothing. Really?!!! Ninth? Ahhhh...thanks for the annual angst fuel as we'll be sure to revisit these in November. The Cats are the only team on the list to receive a vote in every slot from 4 through 11. Off the Tracks and MGoBlog are the best blogs ever, errr, voted the Cats at number 4, while Around The Oval (Ohio St) penciled us in at 11. Considering the last half century of results, I can't exactly blame them. LTP voted for NU in the 5 slot.

10 - Indiana

For the record, there was quite a bit of distance between Purdue, NU and the 10 slot Hoosiers. It was a nip and tuck race with Minnesota to avoid the cellar, but the fact that the Kellen Lewis question mark remains, I'm puzzled how Indiana didn't end up at 11. Enlightened Spartan knows something the rest of us don't as he picked them the highest at 8.

11 - Minnesota

I'm not sure how the Adam Weber-led, year 2 spread Gophers ended up behind Indiana, but they did - but not by much. I'm sure the BTBers picks will serve as inspirational stuff in the Metrodome lockerrrooms - that is if the Vikings don't tear down the shared space on Sundays. The Gophers only had two believers - Gopher Nation and Nittany White Out - both of whom voted the Gophers at number 8.

Reax

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Zombie Nation's Official Ballot (Sorry, no witty commentary right now. Maybe later.):

Predicted order of finish:
1. Ohio State (t)
2. Penn State (t)
3. Michigan State
4. Wisconsin
5. Purdue
6. Iowa
7. Illinois
8. Northwestern
9. Indiana
10. Michigan
11. Minnesota

(If you're looking for the 2009 edition of Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Picks, click HERE!

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Go to hell, CFN

It's happening again. Remember last spring, when everyone was saying that 2007 would be "the year?" You know, when Beano Cook said Penn State could win the National Championship? Well, it's starting already for 2008. I love PSU football, and deep down, I believe every year is a good chance to go undefeated. But to be so premature is just rediculous. In the quest for the most hits, CollegeFootballNews has jumped at the chance to proclaim PSU has a great chance to go bowling in Pasadena next January. The last time PSU went undefeated when it was supposed to was in 1994.

Spring Practice Begins: March 24 Game: April 19
The early spring buzz ... All the talk is about everything other than football. The off-the-field stuff has taken center stage with WR Chris Bell and starting DT Phil Taylor suspended because of academic issues. DT Chris Baker and LB Navorro Bowman were booted off the team for the time being after being charged with felony assault after a fight last fall, with CB Knowledge Timmons being charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct for a problem after the fight. Top safety Anthony Scirrotto agreed to a plea bargain after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of defiant trespass in an issue last April. If that wasn't enough, everyone is talking about what the succession plan is going to be after Joe Paterno decides he's done, while the Nittany Lion nation continues to hold its breath as it hopes beyond all reasonable hope that super-recruit Terrelle Pryor will sign and be the 2008 starting quarterback.

When was the last time PSU started a true freshman quarterback? Ummm. Exactly. I know the coaches and the school want to win, and soon, but there's hardly a chance Pryor would play. I think he would gladly take the redshirt, if he was promised to see playing time next to Devlin in '09 and '10. But who knows what he'll do. I sure don't.

The big spring question is ... Is there a ceiling on the 2008 team? The 2007 team blasted Wisconsin and collapsed against a motivated Michigan State, but for the most part it beat the teams it was supposed to, and lost to the better teams (Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State). The offense needs more pop, the defense needs to play up to its talent level game-in-and-game-out, and for a full sixty minutes, and there can't be any gaffes. It's all about gearing up for a huge midseason stretch with four road games in five weeks (Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa) after a home date against Illinois. The home oasis? Michigan.

When was the last time PSU beat Ohio State in the 'Shoe. Ummm. My parents were newlyweds and Grease was the newest box office hit. Unless PSU plays out-of-this-world better, and OSU plays way below its potential, there's at least one win PSU won't get. And as I've said before, this will be just another "if-we-can't-beat-Michigan-this-year" for the ump-teenth time. So, yet again, it will all come down to Michigan.

The most important position to watch is ... Quarterback. Anthony Morelli was the poster boy for Underwhelming Quarterbacks of America, but he wasn't bad and led the way to a few good seasons. Can Daryll Clark make the offense more exciting? Yes. Can he throw? No. Pat Devlin could quickly take over the No. 1 spot if he's consistent this spring, but Clark, because of his mobility, is an X factor. The team might live through his mistakes to go with his personality and potential.

Even though Paterno has no real loyalty to either quarterback right now, I think you'll see Devlin as the "starter" with Clark as the "starter II." Everyone, including me, loved the wrinkle PSU threw in by having Clark run the ball ala M-Rob style. The biggest question was "why the hell is Morelli even out there." I'll argue that later. But if Devlin and Clark are used in the same package, teams would actually have no freaking clue who will get the snap, as Devlin can run well, too.

Spring attitude... Is it possible to be a sleeper? Ohio State will be everyone's preseason Big Ten title pick, Michigan will get the spotlight with all the changes, and Wisconsin might be the thinking man's pick for the title, but Penn State could turn out to be strong enough to go to Pasadena. The defense will be stellar, the receiving corps might be the best in America, and the O line should be a strength. If the quarterback situation is settled early on, then shhhhhhhh, this will be the league's under-the-radar team to keep an eye on.

Fuck you, Pete Fiutak. I love your analysis, your unbiased approach, and consider CFN a daily must-read. But Fuck You!

Email ZN: ZombieNationPSU@gmail.com Please take a moment to support ZN, by visiting some of our sponsors, or purchase one of those nifty shirts from ZN Apparel at the top-right of this page.

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PSU's last visit to East Lansing

It was a fun one back in 2005: The quick 17-0 lead, the leftover snow, College Gameday, and of course, the broken bleachers in the PSU student section. One thing in it all that sort of pissed me off though was following the game. As all of the players came over to celebrate, drunken students 20-25 rows back somehow thought it was possible that if they just pushed hard enough, their arms could reach down to touch the likes of Tamba Hali and Mike Robinson. Ah, the craziness of winning a Big Ten Championship!



Some memorable moments:








Let's just hope we don't see another 2003.

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