Preview: No. 14 Penn State at Michigan State

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Nov. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET/ESPN (Mike Patrick, Craig James and Heather Cox)
Weather Forecast: Cool, clear.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 13-12-1.

Host: Michigan State Spartans
Record: 6-5 (4-3, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Purdue, 40-37
Injuries: LB Drew Stevens (knee) - possible; RB Glenn Winston (knee) - out for season; S Roderick Jenrette (foot) - out for season
Key Players: (offense) QB Kevin Cousins, WR Blair White, WR BJ Cunningham; (defense) LB Greg Jones, S Chris Rucker, DL Jerel Worthy
Head Coach: Mark D'Antonio, 3rd season, 22-15; 0-2 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 139.7 rush/274.1 pass/31.0 points per game
Defense - 105.9 rush/245.0 pass/23.5 points per game
TO Margin - (-4)/(-0.36) per game

Michigan State, on paper -- The Spartans are a funky team this season, losing a ton of very, very close games, but winning a few more that were made more difficult than necessary. Michigan State was coming off its first New Year's Day bowl game in 10 years, and had enough talent returning or rising to figure on another successful campaign. That, however, would depend on if the team could do one thing: win some games it wasn't supposed to. Well, that never happened, and the Spartans now sit at 6-5, clinging to bowl eligibility. It's not like Michigan State has been a bad team this season. Far, far from it. In three losses to Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Iowa, the total margin of victory was seven, SEVEN, points, and Michigan State even had control of each one of those games heading into the final few minutes. Wisconsin turned out to be much better than anyone had projected, but Michigan State still put up 30 on the Badgers in Camp Randall. Really, the only inexplicable loss for the Spartans came in a weird, wild upset at Minnesota. The only other close game was last week against a better-than-you-think Purdue team, but the Spartans prevailed by three.

Michigan State tried to use the two-quarterback system early this season, surprisingly enough, to decent success. But this is now Kirk Cousins' offense, even if Keith Nicol still comes in for a few series here or there. The Spartans are 0.3 points per game away from leading the conference in scoring offense; they lead the Big Ten in total offense, pass offense, pass efficiency, and kickoff return average. Wonder how Michigan State has been able to stay in every game this season? There's your answer. The Spartans can turn it on offensively against any team, even if sometimes it comes a bit too late. And you can chalk much of that up to the defense, which can't seem to figure out how to make a big stop to save its team's life. The Spartans are allowing a not-terrible 23 points per game, but Michigan State is dead last in red-zone defense, and near the bottom in third-down conversions allowed. Probably more frustrating, and similarly to some of Penn State's issues, Michigan State has been fantastic at creating negative-yardage situations for its opponents (2nd in the Big Ten in sacks), but has forced a league-worst 12 turnovers. Big, game-changing plays on defense have been few and far between for Michigan State, in a season where just one or two might have made a huge difference.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-2 (5-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Indiana, 31-20
Injuries: CB AJ Wallace (shoulder) - possible; WR Chaz Powell (shoulder) - possible; RB Brandon Beachum (ACL) - out for season; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 392-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 172.3 rush/231.2 pass/28.5 points per game
Defense - 93.9 rush/178.1 pass/11.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)/(0.09) per game

Penn State, on paper -- Entering the final week of the season, 9-2 feels much worse than it actually is for the Penn State faithful. The Nittany Lions have had only two opportunities this season to beat premier teams, with both games coming in Beaver Stadium. But Penn State failed miserably in both tests, both on national television. No other final score has even come close to a Penn State loss, which might make the season feel even worse, knowing this team has the ability to play well. That ability just hasn't shown up in big games. The average margin of victory for Penn State this season has been 16.9. However, against all teams not named Iowa or Ohio State, that margin jumps to 23.8 per win. Penn State hasn't reached 10 wins in consecutive seasons since 1994. The Nittany Lions could very easily reach that plateau in 2009, as almost everyone pegged this team for 10 wins just as long as it got off the bus each Saturday. But with suspect special teams and a propensity for turning the ball over at key moments in big games, that goal isn't so certain with two games left against good teams.

In 2008, Penn State averaged 24.5 yards per kick return, 10.4 yards per punt return, while Derrick Williams scored two touchdowns on kick returns and another on a punt return. On punt coverage, Penn State allowed 5.3 yards per return. The Nittany Lions also did not allow a blocked punt in 2008. Now fast forward to 2009. With 11 games in the books, Penn State is averaging 18.4 yards per kick return, 5.3 yards per punt return, while scoring not a single return touchdown. This year on punt coverage, Penn State is allowing a ghastly 16.4 yards per return. Also, the punt team has allowed two blocked punts this season, including the game-changing scoop-and-score by Iowa. Against Ohio State two weeks ago, Penn State allowed punt returns of 43, 19 and 45 yards. With an offense that doesn't trust its offensive line any more, a quarterback that pushes in big games leading to mistakes, and special teams that have become the biggest single liability this season, Penn State could have a much tougher time reaching those 10 wins that were thought to be so easily attainable.

On the field -- East Lansing hasn't been kind to Penn State. The last outing westward, the Nittany Lions were eying a January bowl game, and holding a comfortable 24-7 third-quarter lead, everything was hunky-dory. That is, until everyone realized that John L. Smith was no longer Michigan State's head coach. Mark D'Antonio would have none of what Penn State was serving, and called for one aggressive play after another. Penn State lost 35-31, due to exactly what this year's game could hinge on: pass defense and special teams. In that game two years ago, the Spartans faked a punt in their own territory to gain a huge first down (and momentum), and bombed away to take the lead, forcing a stunned Penn State offense to wake up form its nap. This season, Penn State can't fall asleep, or it'll be a rerun of 2007.

In case you haven't noticed, special teams special team will be a pretty big deal in this game. So, I'm going to call for this game to come down to exactly that: each team's ability to play mistake-free special teams. But that comes in two ways. Penn State should take it literally. The Nittany Lions must hold Michigan State's return teams in check, while not turning the ball over or getting stuck in terrible field position. The Spartans, however, have to take advantage of Penn State's special teams woes, by exploiting the Lions' poor return games and propensity to turn the ball over. It's not a complex formula for either team. And both could end up playing well on special teams. But there will be at least one play that will make or break both teams, depending on which one steps up to seize the moment. In this kind of situation, I just don't trust Penn State.

Extra Points: The two teams play for what's probably the worst trophy in college football: The Land Grant Trophy... Penn State started out going 1-8-1 against Michigan State, but since joining the Big Ten, has gone 12-4... all four Big Ten losses to MSU have come in East Lansing... Average score between the two teams in Big Ten meetings: 35-27... Attendance prediction: 75,235

Prediction: No. 14 Penn State, 21 - Michigan State, 24