Preview: No. 13 Penn State at Michigan

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET/ABC Regional/ESPN Mirror (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Holly Rowe)
Weather Forecast: Cool, some showers.
Series Record: Michigan leads, 10-4.

Host: Michigan Wolverines
Record: 5-2 (1-2, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Delaware State (FCS), 63-6
Injuries: RB Carlos Brown (concussion) - probable; RB Brandon Minor (ankle) - probable; C David Molk (foot) - possible; CB Boubacar Cissoko (susp.) - out; RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Tate Forcier, RB Brandon Minor, RB Carlos Brown; (defense) LB Obi Ezeh, DE Brandon Graham, CB Donovan Warren
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez, 2nd season at Michigan, 8-11; 68-37 career overall, 2-3 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 235.0 rush/191.6 pass/37.3 points per game
Defense - 130.4 rush/232.9 pass/21.9 points per game
TO Margin - (-3)/(-0.43) per game

Michigan, on paper -- The Wolverines are one win away from bowl eligibility, which would be a major accomplishment for Rich Rodriguez in year two of his Michigan tenure. Of course, being minus-10 in turnovers last season would suggest the team was better than its 3-9 record, but 2009 has been a success in no understated terms. Much of the success has been the emergence of Rodriguez's patented spread-run attack that was so dangerous at West Virginia. This year, true frosh Tate Forcier has taken the reigns of the offense, and has already etched his name into Michigan football lore for the comeback win over Notre Dame in week two. But that game is far in the past now. Since, the Wolverines have gone 2-2, including two critical conference losses to Iowa and Michigan State. Forcier was benched against Iowa, partially due to a slight concussion, but backup speedster Denard Robinson couldn't get it done in the two-point defeat. Forcier should be back this week, along with his 1,027 pass yards and 9/4 ratio. Yet, for all his success this season, Forcier would have a much tougher time without some good running backs in Carlos Brown (336 yds) and Brandon Minor (274 yds) to lean on. This Michigan offense is No. 2 in the Big Ten in yardage, and leads the conference in points per game.

For all the statistical success the Michigan offense has enjoyed this season, the defense hasn't fared so well. The Wolverines are seventh in the Big Ten in total yardage, and fifth in points allowed. That's not to say Michigan doesn't have its share of star power on this side of the ball. LB Obi Ezeh and DE Brandon Graham have been causing headaches for opposing offenses all season long, while CB Donovan Warren is tied for second in the conference for interceptions with three. Warren also came up huge in the near-upset at Iowa, with a pick-six in the game's first minute. However, a few great players can't always make up for the rest of a unit that has given up big play after big play, in the air and on the ground. Michigan's defense has also been terribly ineffective at getting to the quarterback (10 sacks), despite plenty of talent in the front seven.

Offense and defense aren't the only units that have been key to Michigan's successes and failures this season. Kickoff coverage hasn't exactly been stellar, ranking eighth in the conference. Time of possession has been even worse for the Wolverines, who lead only a Minnesota team that was limited to less than 20 minutes last week against Penn State. Some bright spots, however, are Daryl Stonum's fantastic 27.2 average on kickoff returns (one TD), and Zoltan Mesko's 45.6 yards per punt.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-1 (2-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Minnesota, 20-0
Injuries: LB Sean Lee (knee) - possible; RB Stephfon Green (ankle) - possible; TB Brent Carter (knee) - possible; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - possible; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 389-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 187.0 rush/245.7 pass/29.6 points per game
Defense - 75.4 rush/163.4 pass/8.7 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)/(-0.14) per game

Penn State, on paper -- Oh how Penn State would love to get back a few of those turnovers in the loss to Iowa. Outside of it's one very poor showing against the Hawkeyes, the Nittany Lions offense has been able to move the ball with relative ease this season, and oddly enough, it's been the passing game that has led the way. Penn State's hefty 245 yards per game through the air has landed the Lions at fourth in the conference in pass offense. But more importantly, it has allowed the Penn State ground game to break out of its funk from earlier this season. For weeks, Penn State couldn't run the ball nearly as effectively as many had hoped coming into 2009, lingering in the bottom half of the conference's statistical rankings. However, with a whopping 338 yards against Illinois, Evan Royster and Stephfon Green haven't looked back. Going into this week, Penn State is now the No. 2 rushing team in the Big Ten. The emergence of a powerful run game has also pushed Penn State to be the No. 1 Big Ten offense, with the best yards-per-play average (6.4) of any conference team. But that's not all, folks. Just some other offensive statistics in which Penn State leads the conference or is the runner up: first downs, third down conversions, penalties, time of possession, sacks allowed, pass efficiency and scoring offense.

What more, the Penn State defense is making the offense look like amateurs. Penn State leads the Big Ten in every major defensive statistic, along with a few others like sacks, fourth down conversions, red zone defense, and opponent first downs. The Nittany Lions' scoring defense is No. 2 nationally, trailing Florida by only 0.04 points per game. Mind you, this has all be accomplished despite the Lions missing its two best defensive players for most of the season so far. Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee, prior to last week, had been on the field together for only three plays. Both missed several weeks with nagging injuries. It says a great deal about this unit, when two super stars are missing, that it can still play at the highest of levels. This Penn State defense was supposed to be a real Achilles' Heel coming into 2009, as both graduation and early NFL entries hit hard at key positions. The entire secondary needed to be replaced, while three great defensive ends were gone. Now, Penn State is only leading the Big Ten defensively in rush, pass and sacks. Not to shabby.

However, as good as the offense and defense have been, Penn State's special teams, particularly the return units, are leaving much to be desired. The Nittany Lions are eighth in the Big Ten in punt return average, and dead last in kickoff returns. Penn State has enjoyed great success in these areas the past few seasons, but is severely lacking in 2009. On the special teams' positive side, Penn State has done well on covering kickoffs and punts, even though much of those statistics are skewed by the Lions' large number of kickoffs and relatively few punts. Not to mention, Penn State boasts the top statistical punter in the conference, Jeremy Boone (Michigan's Mesko is second).

On the field -- When pundits see two conference-leading offenses going up against one another, their usual reaction is "YAY, SHOOTOUT!" Well, not so fast, my fiends. Michigan has been able to squeak by against decent competition, and are a Ricki Stanzi brain fart away from being blown out at Iowa. That's not to say the Wolverines haven't earned their 5-2 record; they've just been very lucky to get there, no thanks to the defense. On the other side, Penn State has lived by leaning on its defense when in a jam, which hasn't been all that often this season. Only one opponent, Iowa, has scored more than seven points when it mattered, and that was mostly due to Penn State's inability to hold onto the football.

Look for the biggest matchup of this game to happen up front, when both teams have the football. Michigan's offensive line, while very talented, hasn't faced a defensive front seven nearly as good as Penn State's, which now returns Sean Lee full-force. The Wolverines don't have a very dangerous passing game like, say, Minnesota does with Eric Decker, and the Lions held the Gophers to 100 yards passing. Penn State held the Gophers in check by blitzing the hell out of Adam Weber, and the same formula should work against Michigan. Tom Bradley's defense will try to force Tate Forcier to win it with his arm. Then for Michigan's defensive front, things will be tough sledding against a greatly improved Penn State offensive line and a more confident Daryll Clark. Unless Greg Robinson's boys can keep Clark on his back after every pass attempt, watch for the steady demolition of the Wolverines' secondary. When two offenses come into a game with nearly equal offensive numbers, the game usually boils down to which defense plays better and how the field position game develops. Michigan will want to neutralize its defensive shortcomings by giving Penn State a very long field. That shouldn't be too difficult, as long as Penn State only gets the ball on kickoffs and punts. Give the Nittany Lions a short field off a turnover, and this game will be over by halftime. Then again, with this year's Michigan team, no game is over by halftime, no matter the score.

But I just don't see Penn State choking in this one the way it did in 2005 or 2007. In those seasons, both teams were very much equal in talent. This season, it just looks like that gap is too wide for the Wolverines to overcome. If Penn State's running game doesn't get going right away, look for Clark and the pass game to loosen up the Michigan defense. Meanwhile, the Penn State defense will force the Wolverines into just enough mistakes to keep this one out of reach after the band plays.

Extra points -- Penn State will hold Michigan to its lowest point total of the season... Michigan will surrender the most points of the season... The score will be close in the second quarter... Michigan will commit three turnovers, to Penn State's two... The rainy, cold weather will contribute to at least three important plays... This will be the largest crowd Penn State will have played in front of all season, until the Ohio State game... Prior to last season's blowout, this game was decided by seven points or fewer four meetings in a row, all Michigan wins... Despite being 4-10 against Michigan, two of Penn State's wins have come in the Big House... Attendance prediction: 109,750

Prediction: No. 13 Penn State, 27 - Michigan, 9

Story updated 4:30 p.m., Oct. 22