No. 10 Penn State vs. Michigan, Preview

School: University of Michigan (UM), Wolverines
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Lloyd Carr, 12th Year, 114-38-0
Last Game: Def. Notre Dame 38-0
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 47-16; 1-4 in bowls; 14-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Shawn Crable, DL Brandon Graham, LB John Thompson

Key Players, Offense: RB Mike Hart, QBs Chad Henne/Ryan Mallet, WR Mario Manningham

What to look for: D - ND was held to 10 first downs and a net 79 yards on 55 plays. But that's no reflection of the UM defense so far. They will face this week an actual, living offense. While PSU doesn't run the spread like Oregon or Appalachian State, it is a much, much faster and smarter team than ND. It could be a blessing or a curse that last week UM could basically sit back and let ND lose the game. LB Crable said he was called out for lack of leadership in the first two games. The defense will need him. It will be up to the front seven to hold PSU down as long as possible, so that the offense can get on the board. If UM allows PSU to run the ball, it will be a very long day.

O - This has been one of the most talented groups of skill players in the nation the last three years. Not that they've won anything with it. UM's backfield and WR's could roll over opponents, but for some reason, don't against any team with a pulse. RB Hart last week guaranteed a win. Well, hell, I could guarantee a win if the other team were no better than a pee-wee squad. This week, it will be up to Hart to again carry the load. If QB Henne starts, he could still have some problems with mobility, a bad sign for UM. If the UM O-line can't hold off PSU's pass rush, WRs Manningham and Arrington will not be a factor in this one. UM has to keep its defense off the field.

ST - This has been fun for viewers, and simply horrid for fans. If only UM could make one of those two missed field goals in the opening day loss to ASU, how would have the other games gone? UM will need all the points they can get, and missed field goals and bad punts will kill momentum. Kicking away from PSU's returners and hanging punts as high as possible should allow UM to work with good field position on defense. They can't start with short fields.

C - HC Lloyd Carr has been beaten to a pulp by UM fans. But he's not done yet. The ND win bought him some time, but this week it's do or die. If UM falls, it could realistically be a 6-7 win season. Two of those in three years is unthinkable. He'll be gone if that happens. The UM staff has to get up for this one, and they want to hit PSU where it's hurt most in recent meetings, hanging in until the last minute, then rely on the referees to give you a bogus call, allowing UM to score or stop a score. Yeah, this has been personal for years.

Fun Stat: Until the last two games of 2006 and the first two games of 2007, UM has never given up 30+ points in four straight games.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-121-3
Last Game: Defeated Buffalo, 45-24
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE/LB Jerome Hayes, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, Entire O-line, All RBs

What to look for: D – Stop the run. It’s not a complex game plan. If the PSU front seven can stuff RB Hart at the line, and prevent any yards after contact, PSU should run away with this one. DTs Ogbu and Odrick have been more dominant than expected this season, and if the penetration is there on run plays, it will be there on pass plays. DE/LB Hayes has been a menace to opposing QBs, and whether it’s Henne or Mallet under center, PSU needs to get pressure. If UM happens to get into any sort of rhythm on offense, the PSU secondary has to step up and fill in for any front line shortfalls. A pick by CB King or S Scirrotto could change the game in one play. If PSU doesn’t send the blitz on almost every play, they’re crazy.

O – This is the scary part. PSU hasn’t really faced a good defense all year. And the only struggles have been against teams in the first quarter, something the PSU offense can’t have in Michigan Stadium. Getting on the board first is key, but if UM scores first, the PSU offense has to answer on the next possession. QB Morelli has been playing smarter as the year goes on, and is starting to look like the bowl-version again. Of course, if there’s not ground game, PSU could be in for a long day. I don’t see that happening, as the run blocking has improved and if the RBs can hold on to the ball, PSU should be fine. UM’s front line is not as powerful as in 2006, so there would be no reason for PSU to be handled up front.

ST – If PSU wins the field position battle, they could almost guarantee a win in this game. P Boone has been more like “boom” on punts, and K Kelly has had 17 TBs on 20 KOs. UM’s terror KR Breaston is gone, so there’s no excuse for PSU to fail in kick coverage. PSU has arguably the best return game in the nation, and has to use every opportunity it gives them.

C – OK Paterno, it’s time to let go. Stop playing tight against UM and just do what you do best on both sides of the ball. The coaching staff needs to let Morelli throw the deep ball early, as Oregon used it in deadly fashion against UM. ICOD Bradley has to trust his guys to play in space. Early in this season, the pressure up front has kept opponents down. PSU needs to get UM out of its game plan early.

Fun Stat: Penn State's 135 points in its first three games is the highest total since 1999 (131 points).

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 30, UM 17

VEGAS:

PSU (-3) UM

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 9, UM 14