Paterno admits Morelli stunk

Not sure why this wasn't made out to be a bigger deal than it was. But at this week's Big Ten Media Days, Joe Paterno said something very interesting--even for Paterno--about former QB Anthony Morelli.

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one."

I realize that it's time to move on from years past, but to me this quote was borderline bombshell material. It was not taken out of context. Paterno was discussing Daryll Clark, and how Jay Paterno was pushing for Clark to play more in 2007.

Paterno basically said he should have listened to his son. But because of Paterno's stubborn loyalty to his upperclassmen, he "blew that one."

Just imagine what this team would have been like, if Clark were given really significant playing time in 2007. What if Clark ended up taking over the starting job after the Ohio State blowout (Morelli threw two INTs, one pick-six), and was the starter going into East Lansing?

I know, playing the what-if game is pointless now. This is still very interesting though, especially when you tie in Paterno's comments about playing the younger guys.

"We're going to have to take some young people and put them in key spots. There will probably be a couple of kids I haven't seen play yet. But that will go on for a while."

It's the first day of August, and already this team's giving me a headache.

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More on Steele's PSU ranking: 2008's No. 10 isn't anything like 2007's No. 10

Does anyone else realize that Phil Steele ranked Penn State No. 10 going into 2007? That's just something I'd like to point out. I understand that Penn State had all the makings of a top-10 team last year, but 2008 begs this question: Why are people so shocked that 2008 could be a much better season than 2007? Morelli, Connor, Kinlaw and Lee (for now) are gone, which adds up to two negatives and two positives. That's not a whole lot to lose, considering what Penn State brings back in 2008.

It was all about the "senior quarterback" last year. Morelli was coming off what was viewed as the stepping stone bowl performance, to lead his team to the BCS. We all got so caught up in the hype that it killed us to see the truth, that Morelli was hopelessly under-coached and the mistakes kept coming. He couldn't move in the pocket to save his life, resulting in a horrible campaign behind an excellent offensive line. Only Morelli could have pulled that one off.

This leads me to my next point about Phil Steele's rankings. Before 2007, Steele & Co. weren't that outrageous to put Penn State at No. 10. Shit, Beano-Freaking-Cook even picked Penn State as a national championship contender. But 2008 feels different. This year, it's not "expected" to go BCS-well. That might work out better than we could hope for.

So while I just seemed to go on a long-winded contradiction of myself, it's really not that backward to say all this. Penn State will retain the same exact pre-season ranking as Phil Steele's 2007 magazine, but these are two polar opposite No. 10 rankings. We'll discuss this more over the summer, but I just thought I'd mention it now.

Ok, four posts in one day. I'm done. See you Monday with the first official team preview: Coastal Carolina.

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2008 NFL Draft: The Hangover

That was probably the weirdest draft I've ever watched. My guess is that everyone knew who was going first, had a real strong clue who was second, and the best player in the draft--Darren McFadden--didn't even crack the top three. Penn State only had two players drafted, but this year's episode was a bit more dramatic for the Nittany Lions on the board.

Dan Connor: ZN Pick, Round 1. Actual Pick, Round 3... Wow. That's all you can say. He was the BEST steal of this draft, period. As one reputable Web site said, Connor could have gone in the first round, and no one would have blinked. But he went almost 50 picks later than anyone expected. The best thing he can do now is make all those other teams feel like crap for not drafting him. Like Paul Posluszny before him--before Poz broke his arm--Connor will win the starting job right away and lead the team in tackles.

Justin King: ZN Pick, Round 4. Actual Pick, Round 4... Not bad, not great. He'll get some playing time on special teams, and maybe turn into a good return man. Depending on how the Rams feel about him, he might turn into a dual-threat player. I know it's very rare in this age of the NFL, but throwing King in on a few offensive plays couldn't hurt the Rams.

Anthony Morelli: ZN Pick, Round 6. Actual Pick, Free Agent to the Cardinals... This might work out better than expected for Morelli. There's a great opportunity for him to win the backup. You knew his arm was too much to pass up.

Rodney Kinlaw: ZN Pick, Free Agent. Actual Pick, nothing yet... I hope this kid gets a shot.

Now, on to the 2008 college football season.

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2008 NFL Draft: Penn State's pro prospects and Mock First Round

As part of ZN’s 2008 NFL Draft analysis and projections, here’s a quick rundown of where Penn State’s four pro prospects could end up this weekend. Also included is the “official” ZN mock first round. Now I know nothing about how the NFL franchises pick their players in the draft, nor do I ever care to figure it out. I stick to college. But it’s still fun, so here it goes.

Penn State pro prospects 2008:

Dan Connor: First Round. If he falls to the second round, it will be considered a disappointment for Penn State fans everywhere.

Justin King: Fourth Round. He’ll be a steal at this point. If he goes on the first day, I’ll be shocked. His speed will get him a higher selection than he deserves.

Anthony Morelli: Sixth Round. Don’t get all bent out of shape if Morelli doesn’t go at all in this year’s draft. I know, it’s horrible, but true. His arm should get him a late pick, though.

Rodney Kinlaw: Free Agent. Kinlaw's the kind of player that just needed a chance to prove himself. He might get a chance to do it at the next level, too.

Terrell Golden: Sorry, but he never made an impact on the team other than being captain in 2007. He was a solid contributor for the Nittany Lions and we will all miss him.

Good luck to all who are leaving Happy Valley. Now for the mock first round:

1. Dolphins: Jake Long
2. Rams: Chris Long
3. Falcons: Glenn Dorsey
4. Raiders: Darren McFadden
5. Chiefs: Ryan Clady
6. Jets: Matt Ryan
7. Patriots: Vernon Gholston
8. Ravens: Sedrick Ellis
9. Bengals: Keith Rivers
10. Saints: Mike Jenkins
11. Bills: Devin Thomas
12. Broncos: Branden Albert
13. Panthers: Derrick Harvey
14. Bears: Chris Williams
15. Lions: Dominique Rodgers-Chromartie
16. Cardinals: Leodis McKelvin
17. Chiefs: Limus Sweed
18. Texans: Jonathan Stewart
19. Eagles: Jeff Otah
20. Buccaneers: DeSean Jackson
21. Redskins: Phillip Merling
22. Cowboys: Felix Jones
23. Steelers: Gosder Cherilus
24. Titans: James Hardy
25. Seahawks: Rashard Mendenhall
26. Jaguars: Lawrence Jackson
27. Chargers: Brandon Flowers
28. Cowboys: Aqib Talib
29. 49ers: Dan Connor
30. Packers: Jerod Mayo
31. Giants: Antoine Cason

That’s about as in-depth as I get with this NFL crap. It's still a whole lot of fun, though!

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Article of the day: Mainstream media's analysis is a joke

I generally try to feature an article each day from another site. Usually they're from Penn State or Big Ten blogs, sometimes from other sites. Please check out the author's Web site. I always supply the link in the introduction.

Here's a good one from The Big Eleventh, raising the question we've all asked ourselves at one point or another, "Those guys at Web sites like ESPN, SI and CBS get paid six figures to write that?" This is a two-parter (of sorts) that began yesterday. So, be sure to read it all at The Big Eleventh.

On ESPN.com's analysis of Penn State's recruiting class, thus far:

Penn State: "Unfortunately, the stagnant class could stem from 81-year-old Joe Paterno still hanging in there and not offering the spark often needed to relate to the younger generation of prospects. However, tradition still sells and no one coach in college football represents more tradition than Joe Pa himself."

Big Eleventh says... This is really all a ploy to talk about JoePa's age and, separately, his marketability.

The MSM has reminded us, almost weekly during the season, that Joe is old. They do it again here. Reporters love to comment on how Joe can't "relate to the younger players these days" because it seems to make sense. Problem is, it just isn't true. This years class lacks flash, but just in the last 5 years, off the top of my head, Joe has been able to relate to Connor, Scott, Morelli, Williams and King. All very highly ranked and talked to by dozens of other younger coaches. All chose Penn State. It's not Joe's age that is the problem, it is his style. The problem with saying he's too old is that he has been doing things the same way for 30 years. Almost nothing has changed since his first winning season. His name alone can be enough to win over a recruit, but his style is no longer mainstream and some people just aren't interested. The prospect of waiting 2 or 3 years is becoming more and more of a problem when there are coaches who are willing to plug guys in right away.

As for the marketability comment, I think this guy is on line but his comment is a little misleading. Joe and Graham get along great. Joe likes to coach, and Graham lets him do this. Graham like to make money, and Joe makes this happen. It's never been about football for it's own sake inside Old Main. Each game is really just another fundraising event and if people keep donating regardless of the scoreboard then the scoreboard doesn't matter.

Oh, recruiting, right. We are loaded at linebacker, have a couple of decent RB's out of Ohio, and probably aren't getting Pryor. Ohio State has been to two MNC games in a row and Michigan just landed a very high profile coach...all while we finished our second very average finish in a row. These are our recruiting problems, not old age.

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QB or not QB: 2008 the Penn State quarterback debate

Going into 2008 spring ball, the big question is, “Who will it be, Clark or Devlin?” I’ve heard so many reasons supporting each candidate’s chances of earning the starting spot, none of which seem like the last word on what will go down this summer. I like both quarterbacks. But while the two-headed monster—using both quarterbacks—is cute, it’s not the answer to Penn State’s problems at that position. Actually, the talent both of these guys have is exactly what makes the conversation so relentless.

Through my long, tireless searching deep into the annals of college football recruiting (whatever popped up on the first three pages of a Google search) I was able to dig up a few blurbs on each quarterback. Obviously, Devlin was the higher-rated prospect coming out of high school, so he received more attention. Clark was a good prospect out of the Buckeye state.

From ESPN.com: (2005)

“Devlin is a smooth pocket passer with excellent touch on all his throws. He has a very good arm, but not great and delivers a catchable ball… Anticipation is one of his greatest assets and helps him make up for any lack of elite arm strength… Shows good timing and is extremely accurate… He appears to have good recognition skills and pulls the trigger once he runs through his progressions… Has adequate quickness, is mobile enough to roll out of the pocket and throws well on the run. Associated Press Class 4A All-State team... 2,245 passing yards and 21 touchdowns.”

From Scout.com: (2003)
“Clark has an amazing arm and good speed. Built on a nice frame. One of the most athletic QBs in Ohio (a legit 4.65). Daryll threw for approximately 1,900 yards and 18 touchdowns in 10 games during his senior season. He was named to the AP All-Ohio Division IV 2nd Team.”

Okay, that’s out of the way. Looking at those clips would indicate that Devlin is the surefire pick for Penn State’s 2008 signal caller, right? Nope. The Penn State nation is divided on this issue like they were Democrats and Republicans, only with more passion. Clark has seen the field so far, and despite what many will tell you, it’s not nearly enough to gauge whether he can go up against the likes of Ohio State and Wisconsin—both, by the way, Penn State must play away in 2008. Devlin has fallen victim to Penn State’s policy to stop throwing the ball after leading by more than 20 in the third quarter. He’s seen only a handful of snaps—none of which have been meaningful—and attempted all of one pass, a 59-0 win over Florida International. The pass fell incomplete.

So where does Penn State go from here? Whatever you do, don’t expect an answer from Joe Paterno. According to him, nothing will be decided for several months. I sort of understand that stance, but sometimes question whether it’s a good idea. Penn State has a deep, veteran team in 2008, a team that lost by more than seven only once in 2007. But fans can’t get caught up in what the message boards are saying. Reports from those close to the team say that Devlin is nearly as quick as Clark, but much more accurate. So it now becomes a toss up. What does Penn State want more?

I would love to see Devlin get the nod, if for no other reason than to have stability at a position that’s been unsettled since 2004. What happens to Clark then? Well, sometimes things don’t turn out the way people want. Yeah, I’d feel pretty bad about Clark putting in all the work and not getting time, but I also want to see this team win decisively in 2008. With the best offensive line, the best receiving corps, the best defense all combining for one of the best teams (on paper) Penn State’s had in a long time, the coaching staff shouldn’t take any chances with picking a starting quarterback.

If Clark proves that he’s the superior signal caller during spring and summer practice, fine, give it to him and tell him to go buck wild. But if Devlin emerges as the kind of player that could, and should lead this team to a run towards the Big Ten championship—or more—I would hope that Penn State’s coaching staff knew what to do. Unfortunately, we can only hope.

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Valero Alamo Bowl Preview: Penn State vs. Texas A&M

School: Texas A&M University (A&M), Aggies
Conference: Big XII
Head Coach: Gary Darnell (interim coach), 0-0 overall
Last Game: Defeated No. 11 Texas, 38-30
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 31-29 overall; 0-2 in bowls; 12-6 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Mark Dodge, CB Marquis Carpenter, LB Misi Tupe

Key Players, Offense: QB Stephen McGee, RB Jorvorskie Lane, TE Martellus Bennett

What to look for: D – The famed A&M “Wrecking Crew” defense showed up this season--sometimes. Any offense with a pulse moved the ball with ease against the Aggies, and even bad teams like Miami, Fla. And Fresno State put up 34 and 45 points, respectively. If A&M can’t throw a wrench into the PSU offense, this one could get ugly in a hurry. It will start with the outstanding linebackers Dodge and Tupe, who combined for 197 tackles this season. Both are good at getting to the ball, and can also get a hand up in coverage, with Dodge notching five pass breakups and Tupe picking off one for a big return. Big plays are an absolute necessity if A&M pulls off the win. Getting a few sacks or interceptions could give A&M a mental boost, if anything. Carpenter was excellent at finding the ball in the air, and had four picks to show for it. This could come down to whether or not the “Wrecking Crew” actually makes an appearance.

O – This offense isn’t designed to work itself out of a deficit. The running game is A&M’s bread and butter, with McGee, Lane and RB Mike Goodson all rushing for more than 715 yards. The problem for the Aggies is that their leading rusher is the quarterback. If McGee can’t get the defense spread out and off balance, he doesn’t have the arm to stand in the pocket and bomb away. For the north-south running game, the 270-pound Lane is easily the hardest to take down, maybe in the whole nation. He’s only lost nine total yards the entire season on 159 carries. When A&M does go to the air, not many options exist outside of Bennett. He’s been good, but hasn’t gotten many opportunities to show his skills in this offense with only 45 grabs--tops on the team. PSU’s had some difficulty with tall receivers, so Bennett’s 6’7” frame could become a huge asset for the Aggies’ red zone attack.

ST – A&M will hope this game doesn’t come down to a field goal. K Matt Szymanski has been unreliable at best, connecting on fewer than 60 percent of his field goal attempts. In a tight loss to Texas Tech, he missed two attempts from 41 and 34 out. A&M lost that game by one point. Other than the field goal unit, A&M’s special teams are nothing to cringe at, but don’t turn any heads either.

C – Turbulence is the name of the game since Dennis Franchione was fired, oddly enough after his second straight victory over archrival Texas. Interim coach Darnell will get his team as fired up as possible, but this is really a meaningless game from a coaching standpoint. The real work will begin this spring, but a bowl win would send the seniors out on a great note, and maybe pour some momentum into the off-season and incoming coach Mike Sherman.

Interesting Stat: A&M has been a fourth-quarter team in 2007, scoring 131 points. Unfortunately, so have their opponents, which have scored 91 fourth-quarter points of their own.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 371-125-3
Last Game: Lost to Michigan State, 35-31
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: S Anthony Scirrotto, LB Sean Lee, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams, QB Anthony Morelli

What to look for: D – The 2007 season was not a vintage performance by this PSU unit. Sure, there were two shutouts, but I’m sure PSU would have traded those for two wins. In the final two losses the defense gave up 37 to Ohio State and 35 to Michigan State, 28 surprisingly in the second half to the Spartans. Of course, those teams had good quarterbacks. McGee is not bad, but he’s not great, and PSU will key off of his inability to carry the Aggies on his back with his arm. Senior captain LB and Bednarik-winner Dan Connor is almost a given to have a great game, but sometimes in 2007, his defensive teammates couldn’t help him out. Stopping the A&M run game with the front four, led by tackles Phil Taylor and Olie Ogbu will be important to forcing A&M to pass. If PSU can force the pass, Evans and DE Josh Gaines can tee off and pound McGee in the pocket. If McGee and Bennett hook up, it will be up to the suspect secondary to put a quick end to it. Throws over the middle haven’t ended well for opponents, with playmaker Scrirrotto always up for a big play.

O – Can PSU keep up with A&M if the defense doesn’t hold up as well as expected? Morelli had arguably his best game against a good team in the 2007 Outback Bowl against No. 22 Tennessee. And outside of the last four throws of the Michigan State game, he had a great final stretch. But a lot of that had to do with the emergence of Williams as a go-to receiver, after moving to the slot. Morelli does well when asked to manage a game, not win it. Over the last few games, he made nice, easy throws to Williams and WRs Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood. PSU does have the options in the running game, and if it gains a lead by halftime, watch for a healthy dose of Kinlaw and RB Evan Royster. In order for the PSU offense to be effective in this game, it can’t have the mental breakdowns and turnovers that plagued it in key situations in key losses this season.

ST – PSU gave up two touchdown kick returns in 2007. One of them was overcome in the win over Purdue, but the other foreshadowed the implosion against Illinois earlier in the season. A&M isn’t known for its return game, so there shouldn’t be any issues for PSU, considering the special teams have spent extra time on kick coverage. K Kevin Kelly has been very good all year, and hasn’t cost PSU games the way he might have last season. P Jeremy Boone could mean the difference in field position, and thus winning and losing the Alamo Bowl. But above all, PSU doesn’t want to lose the return game, and getting a few good returns from Williams and KR AJ Wallace is a must.

C – This is the complete opposite of A&M. Paterno has been on the same sideline since 1950. The key to another bowl win is allowing the players to do what they do well. That was evident in the loss to Michigan State, as the run game was blasting away, but the staff decided to throw the last four downs with plenty of time. If one aspect of PSU’s offense is clicking, Paterno and his staff have to go with it.

Interesting Stat: PSU has outscored opponents in the second quarter 114-21.

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 31, A&M 14

VEGAS:

PSU (-6) A&M

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 24, A&M 17

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No. 22 Penn State vs. Michigan St., Preview

School: Michigan State University (MSU), Spartans
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Mark D’Antonio, 24-22 overall
Last Game: Defeated Purdue, 48-31
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 26-34 overall; 0-1 in bowls; 12-7 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DE Jonal Saint-Dic, CB Otis Wiley, LB Kendell Davis-Clark

Key Players, Offense: RB Javon Ringer, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, WR Devin Thomas

What to look for: D – This really depends on which MSU defense decides to show up this week. This unit has the playmakers in guys like Saint-Dic (14 TFL, 10 Sks, 8 FF) and Wiley (4 INT), but lacks consistency to come up big when the team needs it. Against Michigan, they couldn’t prevent the long passes mixed with Mike Hart’s running. MSU is giving up a mediocre 351 ypg and 26 ppg, and has to have one of its better days against PSU to win. Getting pressure on the PSU passing game is a must, even if it doesn’t generate sacks. Forcing early throws and getting PSU out of its rhythm is essential. MSU can’t allow PSU to establish its short passing game to set up the run, as it’s done in most of the 8 wins. PSU has been suspect to turnovers, and that falls right into MSU’s lap. Get a few of those, and this one could get ugly, for once in MSU’s favor.

O – There’s no questioning MSU’s ability to put up points, but against the only really good defense it’s faced in 2007–OSU–it managed only 3 points. This won’t be a repeat of the 2006 game, where MSU QB Brian Hoyer threw 61 passes for 291 yards. D’Antonio is an old fashioned Big Ten coach with a modern twist. MSU is averaging 200 rush ypg and 221 pass ypg, one of the most balanced attacks in the nation, but the key will be the run game versus PSU’s front seven. Ringer (1298 rush yards) and Caulcrick (20 rush TDs) have been ramming it down opponent’s throats all year, and MSU needs them to keep the offense balanced. The only way to crack PSU’s defensive brick wall is to tire it out with first downs and more first downs. While the run game is a key factor for MSU, using it to set up the pass will only work if guys like Thomas can get the ball enough. He’s quietly been one of the best WRs in the conference with 1087 receiving yards and 168 rushing yards in 2007. Oh yeah, and he’s also really good at…

ST – returning kickoffs. MSU leads the conference in kickoff returns at 28.9 ypr, which bodes well against PSU, which has been suspect against good returnmen. The best thing MSU can hope for is solid play on both return units and coverage teams, with a big play or two from Thomas. In 2005, a blocked punt in the end zone broke the game open in PSU’s favor. Playing smart special teams might be the deciding factor in this one.

C – In 2003, when John L. Smith led MSU to a bowl game, there was renewed optimism around the program, but this is different now with D’Antonio. Smith brought excitement and flash, but D’Antonio has brought quiet confidence and discipline, something MSU desperately needed. The MSU coaches have the tools to beat PSU, but can they use them effectively enough to get this one in the W column?

Interesting Stat: MSU defensive ppg in 6 wins: 20; ppg in 5 losses: 34.2.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 372-123-3
Last Game: Def. Temple, 31-0
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE Maurice Evans, DT Phil Taylor

Key Players, Offense: RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams, OTs Dennis Landolt and Gerald Cadogan

What to look for: D – Stop the run, plain and simple. Turning MSU one-dimensional should almost guarantee a win. PSU needs a huge game from the front seven, and more importantly, the front four. Taylor has been emerging as a big-time player, and his ability to get into the backfield before the runner can get to the line will be a huge factor this week. When MSU decides to pass, PSU can’t give Hoyer any time. Evans and Josh Gaines have to play big and get in Hoyer’s face. Don’t give MSU time, or you’re dead. Connor has become the best LB in the country, hands down, and can nearly lock up his awards with a good showing and a win this week. Although the PSU secondary has been playing a bit lax lately, I don’t expect them to have much trouble, as this whole game is about stopping the run. If PSU gets a lead, the defense has to play like every down is their last. Don’t give MSU an inch until the final whistle.

O – Don’t turn the ball over, Anthony Morelli. A fumble on the one-yard line against Temple had the PSU fans grimacing, but everyone knew it wouldn’t matter in that game. Well, against MSU, that kind of mistake will matter. PSU has had some trouble pass protecting, but the run blocking has been more than solid. That’s a bit deceiving, as PSU does much better when using the pass to set up the run. Kinlaw had the game of his life against a pretty bad team, but can really cement his legacy this week. Another career day came in the form of Williams’ 100 yard receiving yards. I’m not sure why it took so long, but he’s finally gotten the ball more where he can make a difference. He has to keep up his stellar play and break a few big ones against MSU. But the biggest match up will be the PSU OTs against Saint-Dic. Neutralizing his pass rush could save the day for PSU.

ST – What’s happened to PSU’s return game? I know, it’s not too bad, but it was supposed to be one of the best in the nation. The only big play this season came in week two against Notre Dame. Otherwise, the return men haven’t made that much of a difference. Williams is hot, and he can gain huge momentum going into the bowl game if he can launch a big return against MSU. This could be a low-scoring game, and a spark from the return game could make the difference.

C – Don’t get tight. The PSU staff has to get the ball to the playmakers. If Williams doesn’t touch the ball at least 12 times, there’s a problem. The play calling was good enough last week to beat Temple, but can the staff get enough going to beat a Big Ten team coming off a good win over 7-4 Purdue?

Interesting Stat: PSU is 11-3 against MSU since joining the Big Ten in 1993, but all three losses were in Spartan Stadium. Most of the time, PSU got embarrassed, 49-14 in 1997, 35-28 in 1999 and 41-10 in 2003. Sorry, I know, but PSU has to be careful this week.

GAME PREDICTION: I’d really like to see this one turn into a slugfest, the kind PSU loves to play. If it comes down to defenses, PSU’s should be able to hold its own against an inconsistent MSU offense. Look for a boring game through he first half; with either team possibly holding a slim lead. It’s really hard to call this one, as I don’t know if PSU will take advantage of its talent on offense. If PSU plays loose and smart, they can secure another 9-win season. If PSU comes out flat, and allows MSU to get a few energizing plays, a trip to the Champs Sports Bowl is almost certain for 2007. I think MSU will keep it very close, if not lead into the second half, but PSU has just too much talent to lose. Kinlaw gets another big day. Williams scores a TD. MSU logs less than 350 yards of offense, most of which comes in the first half.

PSU 27, MSU 23

VEGAS:

PSU (-2) MSU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 31, MSU 35

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No. 23 Penn State vs. Temple, Preview

School: Temple University (TU), Owls
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Al Golden, 4-17 overall
Last Game: Lost to Ohio, 23-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 8-50 overall ; 0-0 in bowls; 2-12 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: S Dominique Harris, DE Junior Galette, DT Andre Neblett

Key Players, Offense: QB Vaughn Charlton, RB Jason Harper, WR Bruce Francis

What to look for: D – Pressure, pressure, pressure. TU has to get into the backfield and in the face of PSU QB Anthony Morelli. It actually has a good chance to do so, with its strongest play this season coming from its front four. Galette and Neblett have led the defense with a combined 11 sacks (minus-59) and 4 forced fumbles. While sacks may be hard to come by, pressure can do the trick this week. And once TU gets PSU out of its timing, it can force a few bad throws, right into the arms of Harris. He’s easily the defense’s MVP, leading the team with 60 tackles, 2 INTs and 4 PBUs. TU can’t stop PSU this week, but it can certainly slow them down and be a real pain in the butt.

O – Establishing the run should be out of the equation this week for TU. I know that sounds ridiculous, but considering TU has no chance to win, it might as well give PSU as many headaches as possible. TU can get something going with screens to Harper, and maybe some misdirection bubble screens, but considering Charlton is only starting his second game, easy passes are key. Former PSU QB Adam DiMichele was on a roll for TU, completing 62 percent for almost 1600 yards until he went down in the Miami (OH) win. It’s one thing to lead TU to a win over Miami (OH), but over PSU is another story. If Charlton is going to look for someone to get the ball to, it will be Francis, who leads the team by a long shot with 41 catches and a monstrous 16 ypc and 6 TDs. Get a couple first downs, and TU can call it a victory.

ST – There’s not much that is “special” about this unit. While one of the best return games last season, its numbers have fallen off considerably, mainly with KR Travis Shelton gaining only 21 yards per kick return and no TDs. If TU wants to breathe at all this week, it will have to get the ball outside of the 20 yard line. Last week, Purdue kept the game close by nailing some long field goals, but unfortunately for TU, K Jake Brownell isn’t as reliable. He’s made only 3 of 9 beyond 30 yards, with a long of 41.

C – Where’s one of the most underrated coaching staffs in the nation? Duh, TU. Al Golden is a star in the making. Sure, 3-6 isn’t good for about 80 percent of the rest of the world, but for TU, it’s a miracle. Watch for Golden to try a few wrinkles and give his former head coach a few fits doing it. The defense is run by another PSU grad in Mark D’Onofrio. Although the defense isn’t pumping out NFL picks, it’s done a huge turnaround in only one season’s time.

Interesting Stat: Average score, TU vs. Opponents: 2005-06, 9.9 - 41.4, 2007: 18.9 - 28.2.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 370-124-3
Last Game: Lost to Ohio State, 37-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Justin King, S Anthony Scirrotto, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Evan Royster, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – This unit’s numbers against Purdue were a bit deceiving, as Curtis Painter threw for a whopping 255 yards. However, PU didn’t reach the end zone after the first play of the game, and the PSU secondary generally held when it counted most. PSU has to take advantage of a TU team that’s reeling after the loss of its heart and soul DiMichele. Getting pressure from Evans and DE Josh Gaines is a must to force errant throws by Charlton. I listed Scirrotto this week mainly because he’s due for a big game. Not many teams have thrown his way this season, but I think TU will be so desperate; it will chuck it around all game long. If the corners can play aggressive as they did against PU, TU doesn’t have a chance.

O – It was about time the coaching staff used Williams the correct way. There was no excuse previously for not getting the ball to him 12 or more times per game. Although there won’t be the need to get him the ball as much this week, PSU has to set the tone for MSU without looking ahead. Watch for Williams to amass another 100 total yards, with one score coming on the ground. Possibly the biggest positive coming out of last week's win was the emergence of Royster as the future of PSU. If he and starting senior Rodney Kinlaw can break a few long ones, it will be mission accomplished. The offensive line has been blocking well the last few weeks, and should look even better against TU. Don't expect any sacks from the first team.

ST – K Kevin Kelly has rebounded from a spotty start to settle down, making 17 of 22 kicks this season. The biggest problem for PSU has been on kickoff coverage, surrendering two key TDs early in games. If the coverage unit doesn't work on staying in its lanes and making the tackles, TU could take advantage early. If P Jeremy Boone doesn't receiver post-season accolades, something is seriously wrong. Only a redshirt freshman, he's bombed away for 43 yards per boot, landing 21 inside the 20 and having none blocked. His ability to keep opponents pinned deep has bailed out PSU on several occasions.

C – Don't worry about embarrassing the other team, Joe Paterno. Put this one away by halftime. Let the starters rest early, and get guys like Daryl Clark and Chris Colasanti playing time. If this coaching staff can't churn out at least 24 points before the half, they're not doing their jobs. I'll give the defense one mulligan field goal, but that's it. Tom Bradley can't afford to play loose when PSU is looking for brownie points going into the bowl season.

Interesting Stat: True sophomore end Maurice Evans is third nationally in sacks (12.5) and TFLs (21.5), but still, somehow was left off the Lombardi Award Finalist list (best front-seven defender). Interesting how OSU LB Laurinaitis made the list, hmmm.

GAME PREDICTION: I've tried to be cute the last few games, predicting exactly how the scoring would happen. Well, after being nearly dead wrong each week, I'll just go with how I think the general feel of the game will be. PSU should start off quick, with a few good first downs, but not the dominating performance many would like on offense. That will change in the second quarter with an outburst of points, highlighted by a huge play from one of the PSU skill positions. TU will keep the score respectable until halftime. Once PSU's second team is in, TU will get a sack or two and maybe a turnover. After all, what would a PSU game be without a few turnovers to piss off the fans?

PSU 42, TU 10

VEGAS:

PSU (-25) TU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 31, TU 0

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Penn State vs. Purdue, Preview

School: Purdue University (PU), Boilermakers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 82-51 overall
Last Game: Defeated Northwestern, 35-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-27; 1-3 in bowls; 14-6 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Terrell Vinson, DE Cliff Avril, LB Anthony Heygood

Key Players, Offense: QB Curtis Painter, WR Dorien Bryant, RB Jaycen Taylor

What to look for: D – The PU defense hasn’t really ever lived up to matching the offense. In 2005, ALL 11 starters returned to PU, but because of personality issues, completely imploded becoming one of the worst units in the nation. This season, it’s been no different from many past seasons, where the defense is not horrible, but won’t win games for PU. Tiller needs his guys to put together their best performance of the season. Vinson not only leads the team in tackles, but also in INTs. A playmaker like that could spell trouble for the PSU offense. PU’s best defensive performance came at Iowa, giving up a mere 6 points, but that was against the Big Ten’s worst offense. Heygood has been huge for PU, racking up 11 TFL and 30 solo tackles. Blowing up the PSU run game in the backfield is a must, forcing Morelli to win the game, something he couldn’t do last week against OSU.

O – The PU offense has been Tiller’s bread and butter since he arrived in West Lafayette. Painter has emerged as one of the conference’s premier QBs, and although he struggled against the big two (UM and OSU), he’s had a fantastic year so far. Bryant had 7 rec. for 65 yards and a TD last week, but couldn’t get the big play PU needed against a mediocre NW team on the road. If Taylor can get a few good runs early against PSU, PU can mix it up on offense. When the run game doesn’t work, the PU pass game gets predictable. PU ran for 4 and 39 yards against OSU and UM, respectively, and was blown out in both. PSU’s defense is still one of the best in the nation, and won’t give PU much wiggle room. PU’s O-line has been pretty good this season, outside of the UM and OSU losses. Keeping Painter upright is critical if PU wants to walk out of Beaver Stadium with a win.

ST – Bryant is not only one of the best WRs in the nation, he’s one of the top KR as well. PU will want to work with good field position, especially if it’s starting on the student section’s end of the field. What is good in the KR game is lacking in the PR game, as PU ranks 81st in the country. In what could become a rough day against the PSU defense, points will come at a premium, so Summers will have to keep up his strong performance (9-12 FG, 42-42 PAT) against PSU.

C – Tiller has given PU a level of consistency it’s rarely had in the past. Since his hiring in 1997, he’s won more games than any PU coach before him. He’s only beaten PSU once in Happy Valley, a 20-13 decision in 2004 when PU was ranked No. 9 and PSU would finish 4-7. Tiller has to rally his troops and get on the board early. He should give Painter throws he can make, and throw in a few runs to mix it up.

Interesting Stat: Last season’s 12-0 loss to PSU was the first ever shutout of a Tiller-coached PU team.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 369-124-3
Last Game: Lost to Ohio State, 37-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Lydell Sargeant, CB Justin King, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, WR Deon Butler, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – The PSU defense is pissed off, rightfully so. PSU hasn’t given up that many points since allowing 41 to MSU in 2003, and hasn’t lost by that much since a 20-0 loss to UM in 2001. But, OSU is No. 1 for a reason, and PSU is 6-3 for a reason too. For the first time all season, LB Dan Connor is not on the key defensive players listed above. I think after last week’s horrid performance in the secondary, Sargeant and King will have to step up and play much smarter football. Evans fell behind in the conference sack race, mainly due to an awesome OSU front five, but this week should get back into the swing of things. PU doesn’t run the ball well against good teams, and while OSU didn’t roll over PSU, it did get 133 out of Chris Wells. Stop the run this week, and PSU can focus on getting pressure on the passing game.

O – What happened after that first drive last week? PSU looked calm, collected and confident in its first possession against OSU, driving the length of the field and scoring a go-ahead TD. Then it fell flat on its face. Morelli has to check down as well as he did on that first drive, and not make the crucial errors that sealed the OSU win. I was really surprised PSU didn’t try any deep passes, as Kinlaw ran very, very well against the nation’s best run defense. Against PU, Kinlaw has to stick to his game and get those 4-5 yards a pop. If this WR corpse (yes, corpse, b/c that’s what it seemed like last week) doesn’t wake up, PSU will finish 7-5. Too many times, key drops and failure to break away deep cost PSU points. I won’t blame it completely on the WRs though, as the line didn’t really help last week. PU can be taken apart on defense, as long as the PSU line and WRs get a hold of themselves.

ST – Finally, Paterno admitted KR/CB AJ Wallace needs to get the ball more. It’s too bad his 97-yard KR TD came after PSU lost the game. If Wallace doesn’t get a few touches this week against PU, either in the KR game or on offense, it will be a huge waste of talent. K Kevin Kelly and P Jeremy Boone have kept opponents pinned deep all season, but on a few scary occasions, the coverage teams have allowed big returns. With PU’s Bryant leading the conference in KR, and PU scoring twice on KR, PSU has to be careful. No cheap points this week.

C – Against OSU, Tom Bradley called easily his worst game ever, allowing the CBs to play 10-12 yards off the receivers. You just can’t do that against a passing team like PU. It’s necessary to jam PU and allow the pass rush to do its thing. Paterno has been rightfully criticized for his failure to go for it on 4th and 2 at the OSU 38, a call that could have changed the game. He can’t be conservative this week,

Interesting Stat: Rodney Kinlaw’s 81 net rushing yards is the second highest individual total against OSU in 2007. Washington’s Jake Locker gained the most in a game with 102 yards.

GAME PREDICTION: With a pissed off defense and a pissed off offense, PSU will come out and play like it is their last in Beaver Stadium–and should, considering, well, it is their last in Beaver Stadium. PSU has won 16 of 17 senior days, most of which were PSU blowouts. The PSU offense will start with a short field, and get on the board first despite a 3rd and long following a sack. 7-0 PSU. PU will answer with a nice little drive of its own, but fail again and again to convert deep in PSU territory. 14-6 at the half. PU will get the ball to start, but a Justin King INT will set up Morelli inside the PU 40. Kinlaw will take a draw down inside the 10. Two plays later, FB Dan Lawlor will punch it in. PU will make things interesting late in the third, with a TD and a 2pt conversion. 21-14, PSU. PU will kick a 4th quarter FG, but PSU will come right back and score on two long drives, eating up a ton of clock in the process.

PSU 31, PU 17

VEGAS:

PSU (-7) PU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 26, PU 19

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No. 22 Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State, Preview

School: Ohio State University (OSU), Buckeyes
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 69-14 overall
Last Game: Defeated Michigan State, 24-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 55-9 overall; 5-1 in bowls; 19-1 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB James Laurinaitis, DE Vernon Gholston, LB Larry Grant

Key Players, Offense: RB Chris Wells, WR Brian Robiskie, QB Todd Boeckman

What to look for: D – This is the best defense in college football, no doubt about it. OSU essentially shut out MSU last week, with only three points coming off a late FG. Had OSU not given up the TDs off turnovers, they would be giving up less than 6 ppg. Laurinaitis is having an AA-caliber season, even if his stats aren’t out of this world. He’s always in the right place at the right time. OSU will need every bit of Laurinaitis and his fellow ‘backers, Grant and Marcus Freeman. While Grant has been the least publicized, he’s been more productive than anyone on the defense, racking up 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks and an INT. Between the LBs and the line, led by Gholston, OSU has to make stopping the PSU run game priority No. 1. Forcing PSU QB Morelli to win the game will allow the OSU secondary to roam free, without stacking the box.

O – This is not the best offense in college football, though some would make it seem that way. Yes, I know 415 ypg is great, but working with a defense like theirs, OSU never has to worry about making mistakes. OSU hasn’t faced a defense as good or consistent at PSU, or an environment like Beaver Stadium at night this season. Boeckman almost lost the game last week, and if he commits any bad turnovers this week, OSU may not be able to cover it up. Look for a healthy dose of Wells to keep the clock moving and the PSU offense off the field. If OSU can hit a few deep ones to Robiskie or WR Brian Hartline, it can keep PSU off balance. The problem is, PSU plays much better against conventional attacks, like OSU’s, and in hostile territory, OSU will have plenty of communication problems to deal with. OSU will have to avoid stupid penalties, especially in long down situations, as it will only encourage the PSU crowd.

ST – This is Tressel’s forte, but turned out to be less of a factor in 2007. But in a place like Beaver Stadium, OSU will need every point it can muster, which is where K Ryan Pretorius comes in. He’s 13/16 on the year and can’t afford to miss any against PSU. The return game hasn’t been the same since Ted Ginn departed, and in a big game like this, OSU may need a spark from a big return. Field position hasn’t been a problem either, as P AJ Trappasso should win the Ray Guy award, and can keep PSU pinned deep all night.

C – Tressel is the man recently in the Big Ten. Next to USC’s Pete Carroll and Texas’ Mack Brown, not coach has been more consistent. However, PSU has played OSU tough every year, and this week at PSU will make things even worse. Tressel is 1-2 when playing at PSU, with the one win by a single point (21-20, 2003). He failed to unleash his offense in 2005 until the final drive, and it cost OSU the game. If Tressel pulls a “Paterno” and goes conservative on the road, PSU could spring the upset.

Interesting Stat: The buckeye confection, made to resemble the tree's nut, is made by dipping a dollop of peanut butter fudge in milk chocolate, leaving a circle of the peanut butter exposed. These are a popular treat in Ohio, especially during the Christmas and NCAA college football seasons. How gay, if you ask me!

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 369-123-3
Last Game: Def. Indiana, 36-31
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, CB Justin King, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – There’s something wrong with college football is Evans isn’t selected lineman of the year. His 10.5 sacks and 17.5 TFL leads the conference, and he’s poised to set school records left and right. PSU will need him on every play against OSU. PSU held Kellen Lewis in check pretty well last week until the last TD run. But Boeckman doesn’t have that run threat for PSU to worry about. So look for more blitzes with Connor and Lee coming as a fifth rusher. OSU’s line is much stronger than IU’s, but even a diluted pass rush should be effective against a stationary Boeckman. James Hardy hosed King last week, but OSU doesn’t have a Hardy. If King can lock down Robiskie, PSU can get more pressure on stopping the run. With DLs Odrick and Hayes out, the line has to step up and forget about being tired. There’s no reason for a poor showing from this unit in Beaver Stadium, unless…

O – The offense puts them in holes. I must say that this unit is night-and-day better than the first half of 2007, but haven’t faced a team like OSU yet. Morelli had one really bad throw last week on the INT, but it wasn’t critical or deep in PSU territory. Regardless, PSU can’t afford any turnovers this week. Morelli did a super job finding the hot receivers and recognizing coverage/blitzes last week, and OSU is sure to try to confuse the living hell out of him. But PSU can avoid relying on Morelli to win the game if the offensive line can get a good push. Kinlaw has been a huge surprise this season, and when he’s not going, RB Evan Royster has shown his youthful brilliance. Like in the 2005 edition, this game could come down to a few pick plays, one of them being when Williams took a pitch in for a TD run, outrunning AJ Hawk in the process. Get Williams in the open with some blockers, and he’s gone to the races.

ST – Special teams bailed out the offense last week, as K Kevin Kelly hit all of his FGs. Hopefully for PSU, this unit won’t be needed as a difference-maker. The biggest focus for PSU should be on kickoffs and punts coverage. If OSU is forced to start drives deep in its own territory, PSU has the defense to make a 90-yard drive nearly impossible.

C – Paterno has to let his coaches do their thing again. It worked great at IU, and can work at home just the same. Let Morelli throw some deep, and don’t be afraid to call some shots to the middle of the field. In 2005, Paterno opted to go for it on 4th-and-2 on PSU’s first scoring drive. PSU needs that sort of confidence in their coaching staff to win in 2007.

Interesting Stat: PSU has only hosted a No. 1 team once, Notre Dame in 1989 (PSU loss 34-23). Paterno is 4-7 all-time against No. 1 teams.

GAME PREDICTION (assuming it rains): This will not disappoint fans. Beaver Stadium will once again live up to its “Greatest Show in College Football” moniker. OSU will take its first drive and move the ball well, scoring a TD to make the PSU fans uneasy. But PSU will come back, kicking a FG to come within four, midway through the second quarter. A tipped Boeckman pass will be picked off by DE Josh Gaines and returned to the OSU 20. PSU will get a quick score from Royster, 10-7 PSU. OSU will get one last possession before the half, with just enough time to tie it on a FG. 10-all at halftime. Neither team will score in the third quarter, exchanging turnovers and punts in a boring stretch. OSU’s Wells will rip off a 25 yarder in the fourth, but a missed handoff will force OSU to settle for a FG. 13-10 OSU. PSU will get the ball back with less than 6 minutes to go, and facing third and very long, get a pass interference call to continue the drive. Morelli will capitalize and on the next play, hit WR Deon Butler inside the five. Three straight runs will result in a Kinlaw TD. OSU will turn it over on downs inside the PSU 35, and PSU runs the clock to less than a minute. Three hail mary’s later… PSU 17, OSU 13. I just can’t see PSU losing at home. I know, UM did it, but his is OSU. PSU’s actually beaten them this century.

PSU 17, OSU 13

VEGAS:

PSU (+3.5) OSU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 17, OSU 37

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It's Wednesday

And I'm bored yet again...

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Penn State vs. No. 19 Wisconsin, Preview

School: University of Wisconsin (UW), Badgers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 17-2-0
Last Game: Lost to No. 18 Illinois, 31-26
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 46-19-0 overall; 3-2 in bowls; 18-1 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DL Matt Shaughnessy, LB Elijah Hodge, CB Jack Ikegwuonu

Key Players, Offense: QB Tyler Donovan, RB PJ Hill, TE Travis Beckum

What to look for: D – Illinois rolled up 289 rushing yards vs. UW, but more importantly, UW failed to generate any turnovers. If there is one way the UW defense can get PSU on its heels, pick off a few passes or jar the ball loose from QB Morelli’s butterfingers. But that’s no guarantee, as Iowa gained three turnovers vs. PSU, but failed to capitalize. CB Ikegwuonu has been quiet recently, but that could be due to opposing QBs throwing away from him. That might not be the case vs. PSU, since PSU likes using the pass to set up the run. That leads to the UW front seven. Can they stop anyone? The PSU attack won’t be spread out like Illinois, but PSU does use 3-4 WR sets often. UW missed a lot of tackles last week, and failed to get pressure on the QBs recently. DE Shaughnessy and his line have to step up against a PSU front that really came on vs. Iowa.

O – UW owned the first quarter vs. Illinois, with a 11:22-3:38 TOP advantage, but the scoreboard didn’t show it, trailing 7-0. That can’t happen at PSU. Considering RB Hill was injured early on, and backup Lance Smith can’t travel, UW ran the ball well at 4.1 yards a pop. But that’s still not good enough at PSU. Sorry folks, with a gimpy Hill, and no solid backup, UW won’t be able to run the ball against a nasty PSU front seven. But where the run game fails, QB Donovan can easily make plays. That might be easier said than done vs. PSU, since star WR Luke Swan is out for the year with a muscle tear. PSU has had trouble with the spread offense, just like UW, but this will be a traditional Big Ten match up of pro-style offenses. As much as UW can put points on the board, it hasn’t faced a defense like this yet, in front of 109,000 rocking fans.

ST – There was a significant edge for UW last week in special teams, but most of that came from Illinois’ miscues. Usually-reliable P Ken DeBauche averaged only 33.7 yards per punt, none over 50 yards and none inside the 20. PSU PR Derrick Williams is due for a big return, and if UW doesn’t watch out in the kicking game, this could be a trouble spot. UW started four drives inside the 20 vs. Illinois, and if that happens at PSU, the student section will feed off of the bad field position and give QB Donovan difficulties.

C – I think HC Beilema is a good coach, but he also stepped into a great situation. UW probably handled its coaching change better than any school in recent history. Now, after only his second loss in two years, Beilema will have to march his men into one of the worst places to play. If UW plays tight, and calls the game conservatively, they’re doomed. The staff has to let QB Donovan take some shots downfield early, even with his inexperienced WR corpse.

Interesting Stat: Wisconsin eats a lot of cheese. So, I couldn’t find anything truly intriguing.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 367-123-3
Last Game: Def. Iowa, 27-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, LB Sean Lee, Both Safeties (Davis or Rubin & Scirrotto)

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – The PSU defensive front seven will have to force UW to go to the air, which is why I listed the two PSU safeties as key defensive players this week. I have a good feeling PSU can stop UW’s power run game, pretty much because it’s not Mike Hart toting the ball. UW RB Hill is very good, but so was Brian Calhoun in 2005, when PSU held him to 20 carries and 38 yards, well below his 135-yard average coming in. So this is where the PSU safeties come in. UW has probably the best TE in the nation in Travis Beckham, and love to throw those 20-yard seam routes, which Notre Dame used in deadly fashion vs. PSU in 2006. Take away the middle of the field, and the PSU defense can force UW out of their game plan. One worry, coming out of the Iowa win, is PSU’s struggles against the 15-20 yard out and flag routes. UW will miss their star WR Luke Swan this week, but Iowa figured out PSU’s cover-2 zone last week, and now UW has the tape to look at.

O – I said last week PSU’s offense would wake up on time vs. Iowa. They did. Many are worried about QB Morelli’s two picks in Q4, but I’m not. I don’t care what he does when PSU has a 20-point lead in Q4. UW’s allowed a combined 65 points and 974 yards of total offense over the last two games. Remember, Pitt held MSU to 17 points at E. Lansing. PSU’s run game should continue its progress this week, as this is not the great UW defense from last season. ICOO Galen Hall got the ball to WR Williams last week, and has to keep it up this week. I really like that PSU is taking more shots downfield to open the game, and can take advantage of UW this week with a few deep early. They don’t even have to be completions, as long as it gets the UW front seven out of the box. HC Paterno always opens up the offense at home, and this week should be no different. This offense can be night and day, depending on where they’re playing.

ST – PSU hasn’t had a kicking game this good in many years. K Kevin Kelly has missed a few, but none of which cost PSU a game. Frosh P Jeremy “Boom” Boone has made many quickly forget just how good former P Jeremy Kapinos was, and that’s tough to do. Boone averages more than 44 yards per punt, frequently downing them inside the 20. If PSU wants to give UW fits, land a few kicks inside the 10. Field position won the game for PSU vs. Iowa, and will decide the game vs. UW.

C – It’s about freaking time. But should we expect anything other than tight play calling on the road, and wide open at home? I really don’t care what the PSU coaching staff does this week, as long as it comes close to the Iowa game plan. The defense was probably run ragged last week in practice after all of the missed tackles vs. Illinois, and this week, they won’t let up. The offensive must be allowed to use its talent, and the staff did that last week. Get the balls to the playmakers (but please, no bubble screens!), and UW won’t stop PSU.

Interesting Stat: PSU vs. Opponents point totals by quarter, Games 1-6 - Quarters 1 & 4: PSU 69, Opp. 69; Quarters 2 & 3: PSU 122, Opp. 13.

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 24, UW 16

VEGAS:

PSU (-6.5) UW

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 38, UW 7

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Penn State vs. Iowa, Preview

School: University of Iowa (UI), Hawkeyes
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, year, 57-46-0
Last Game: Lost to Indiana, 38-20
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 44-19 overall; 2-3 in bowls; 15-3 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DE Mitch King, LB Mike Humpal, LB Mike Klinkenborg

Key Players, Offense: QB Jake Christensen, RB Albert Young, KR/WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

What to look for: D – Don’t let the Indiana loss fool you; this defense is good. Before last week, Iowa was in the top-5 statistically in most defensive categories. Still, after allowing 322 pass yards and 73 on the ground, they’re still in the top-20 defensively. The UI run defense is the best it’s been in years, and should have no problem containing a suspect PSU run game. The front seven will be key to any success at PSU, and if DE King and LBs Humpal and Klinkenborg can harass the PSU backfield often enough, UI has a good chance in this one. UI held its first four opponents to fewer than 17 points, and still average less than 15 points per game allowed. This UI team is scarily similar to PSU: great defense, but an offense that, well…

O – …Just can’t seem to get it together in the clutch. UI rolled for 428 total yards against IU, but only managed 20 points. Sound familiar PSU fans? UI QB Christensen piled up 308 pass yards, but was sacked an unacceptable nine times. Even though IU is the nation’s leading sack team, a team like UI should let that happen, especially at home. Now, this shaky (to say the least) offense has to go on the road to arguably one of the worst places to play. RB Young ran for almost 100 (94) on a mere 15 carries last week, and with the PSU run defense struggling recently, he should find some holes. That, though depends on the O-line, which cost UI the IU game. UI has to keep Christensen upright and keep Young from getting hit before he even reaches the line of scrimmage.

ST – UI has a hidden gem in KR/WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. He’s gaining 27.6 yards a pop on kickoffs, and after watching Illinois’ Benn bolt for a TD last week, UI’s special teams should be drooling. The biggest problem for UI is that there’s no reliable FG kicker. A long time has passed since Nate Kaeding wore the Black and Gold, and current K’s Austin Signor and Daniel Murray failed to connect on either of their attempts last week. UI needs a kicking game, fast.

C – HC Ferentz is too good at what he does to let this team go down the tubes. Turnovers killed UI last week, and IU is a much improved team over what it was years ago. Watch for Ferentz and his staff to add a few wrinkles against PSU. They may be as bland as simplifying the game plan to what UI always won with: avoid mistakes! That’s easier said than done, but again, this team is more talented than its record shows, and could come up with a win this week.

Interesting Stat: UI total points allowed in first four games: 35; points allowed against IU: 38.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-123-3
Last Game: Lost to Illinois, 27-20
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, The Front Four, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, TE Andrew Quarless, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – It’s been a long time since the defense tackled as poorly as it did last week at Illinois, at least that was Jack Ham’s opinion, and we trust Jack Ham. As bad as the offense was, it was the defense (many of whom also cover kickoffs, more on that later) that allowed 21 first-half points, highlighted by Illinois WR Benn breaking about 30 tackles on his way to the end zone. This is the time when LBs Connor and Lee need to step in and hold their unit accountable, including themselves. CB King had a good game, like the rest of the secondary (in pass coverage only, again, not tackling), and has to stay on their assignments this week. UI was killed by IU’s blitzing, and there will be no excuse if PSU doesn’t do the same. UI isn’t a spread offense, and isn’t as talented as UM, so if PSU can hold down the run for the first time in two weeks, this one should be a breeze. That is, of course if…

O – The excruciatingly inconsistent offense can get its act together. There hasn’t been a game in recent history when the offense has fallen apart so badly. A look at the stats would indicate a sure win, but turnovers cost PSU at least 17 points. Like the defense, this week there is no excuse for a loss at home. While UI’s defense is good, they’re not great. QB Morelli has to use this as an opportunity to show he can handle adversity and win when it counts, and no game means more to this program right now than this one. TE Quarless had one of his worst moments (on the field, that is) ever when he dropped the TD pass last week, and has to make the most of every ball that comes his way this week. The running back situation is worse than it’s been since 2003, and if a go-to back doesn’t emerge quickly against UI, PSU will again have problems. The O-line wasn’t horrible last week, but will see better talent in UI. Getting a good push and exploding off the ball is not an option for PSU, it is critical.

ST – P Jeremy “Boom” Boone has been a rock for PSU, and if the offense gets into trouble again, he will have to bail them out, again. But everything will depend on kick coverage and tackling. I don’t’ see that as a problem this week, as UI doesn’t have a playmaker like Illinois’ Benn. KR AJ Wallace looked timid last week, but should return to form with a big return. KR/PR Williams has done his best to break free, but every return can’t be a big one. PSU may not have to rely on special teams as much this week.

C – There’s way to much to bitch about here. So I’ll keep it short. HC Paterno has to let ICOO (“In Charge Of Offense” as PSU calls it) Galen Hall do his thing. It won’t happen. Last week, the offensive staff moved the ball well, but first down runs landed them in long situations this team is not designed for. ICOD Tom Bradley probably ran his defense into the ground this week after such a poor outing, and he’ll have his unit back to form.

Interesting Stat: PSU total rushing yards allowed first three games: 53; total rushing yards allowed last two: 382

GAME PREDICTION: This is the game PSU shows up on time. Look for the first play from scrimmage to be a pass. Long, short, medium; it doesn’t matter. Even if it’s incomplete, it will make the crowd happy. If PSU comes out and runs the ball to set up the pass, PSU will lose. UI will score first, but on its first possession, which will piss off the PSU defense. QB Morelli will look average again, but not make as many mistakes, allowing his receivers to do more of the work. PSU scores 13 unanswered in the second quarter. 13-7 at halftime. UI comes out, nails a FG. But then WR Williams takes a PSU reverse for a big gain, setting up another Kelly FG. 16-10 PSU going into the fourth. Each team moves the ball, but UI settles for a FG, while PSU gets a clinching TD with five minutes left. It’ll be a boring win, but an important one.

PSU 23, UI 13

VEGAS:

PSU (-9) UI

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 27, UI 7

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No. 21 Penn State vs. Illinois Preview

School: University of Illinois (UI), Fighting Illini
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 3rd Year, 7-20-0
Last Game: Def. Indiana 27-14
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 13-45; 0-0 in bowls; 7-11 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB J Leman, DE Will Davis, CB Vontae Davis

Key Players, Offense: RB Rashard Mendenhall, QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn

What to look for: D – This unit has become night-and-day better than it has been in recent years. Lead by star LB Leman, the run defense is surrendering a mere 87 ypg. The most improved area is the most important, points per game, now at only 18.5. A surprisingly sharp secondary has forced opponents to avoid taking downfield shots, which could help against a team like PSU. UI should have instantly taken notice of how Michigan stuffed PSU’s run game, by pressuring the passing game. UI has some great playmakers on the front line, particularly in DE Davis. If Davis and Co. can get pressure on PSU’s QB, UI could be in for a fun afternoon. For once, UI can lean on its defense if it needs to. In 2006, UI held PSU’s offense down all day in a stellar effort, and will need that sort of outing in the 2007 edition.

O – UI should have beaten Missouri in the opener, but QB Williams left the game with an injury. Since, UI’s been on a tear, winning three in a row. It’s been amazing to watch Williams’ progress over the last year, and come December, might be up for some big recognition. That will, of course, depend on how he performs in the Big Ten season. UI has the best rush offense in the BT, but has done so with the spread, unlike UM, PSU and others. Combine Williams with last week’s BT POW RB Mendenhall, and you get more options than you can use. Throw in rising star Arrelious Benn, and the offense has a playmaking trio unlike anything it’s seen in a long time. UI had no trouble moving the ball against PSU in 2006, but mistakes killed any chance of a win. Now, the UI offense is much better at holding onto the ball. The UI offensive staff needs to go balls-out against PSU.

ST – This is where UI should worry. The FG unit has been great, but the return coverage could use a jump-start, allowing 19.1 yards per KOR and a monstrous 14.1 yards per PR. PSU has one of the best return games in the land, so UI has to spend some time preparing coverage schemes. If UI can’t win the field position battle, they’ll be in deep trouble.

C – HC Ron Zook has done a fantastic job with UI, regardless of his overall record. UI is on its longest winning streak since 2001, and it’s no fluke. Zook has established himself as one of the nation’s premiere recruiters. The talent is there to make a bowl run. Defense is Zook’s forte, and can show what he’s made of this week. UI needs to play this game with a lead, but if it can’t get ahead, the tools are there to come back.

Fun Stat: UI’s defensive PPG in Zook’s first season: 39.5. UI’s defensive PPG so far this season: 18.5.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-122-3
Last Game: Lost to Michigan, 14-9
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE/LB Jerome Hayes, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, Entire O-line, HC Joe Paterno

What to look for: D – The defense was NOT that bad against Michigan last week. What are you supposed to do when you start with a 10-yard field? Or, what about an offense that can’t give you any sort of help in time of possession? The only scary thing was when UM QB Mallet pulled it down and ran for the 1Q score. But that wasn’t expected from him, and this week PSU is completely prepared for UI QB Williams’ fantastic running ability. Any chance for a win will start with making UI one-dimensional. It will be more likely that DBs King, Sargeant, Scirrotto and Davis (or Rubin) would shut down the UI pass game. If that happens, the PSU front seven can overpower UI at the line. PSU has to stay on their assignments and not over-run UI’s plays.

O – This is the interesting match up. Where does PSU’s offense go from the UM loss? This won’t be a repeat of 2005, where UI was young and inept. QB Morelli can either make or break the season with this game, and has to settle down. But the real story with PSU is whether or not it can HOLD ON TO THE FREAKING BALL! Sorry, but it was very frustrating to watch PSU fumble away the UM game. I think Paterno and his staff are pissed off at RB Scott, but while RB Kinlaw will most likely start, Scott will see action again. On the depth chart, the RB slot is listed as Scott “or” Kinlaw. It was easy to blame the PSU O-line for not allowing enough time, or not opening holes against UM, but it came down to QB Morelli having a meltdown under any sort of pressure. I don’t believe that will happen again at UI. There’s not much to say about the WR corps, other than they need to stay patient and hope PSU can get them the ball more.

ST – This week it has to fire on all cylinders. Last week, K Kelly and P Boone had a very good game, but it was the return game that suffered. UI has had one glaring weakness, and that’s allowing big returns. If the return tandem of Williams and Wallace can break one loose and give the O a short field, the special teams will have done its job. P Boone will continue to be a key element to any win, especially against and UI offense that could struggle mightily against a good PSU D and a long field.

C – The worst players on the field at UM weren’t even wearing a uniform. The PSU coaching staff, mainly Paterno, called a horrible game. Conservative won’t work against UI. PSU needs to put points on the board, fast. This offense isn’t designed for comebacks, and the coaches know that. If PSU comes out and plays like they have a goal post up their ass, they’ll lose. It starts with the play calling.

Fun Stat: PSU scoring offense first 3 games: 45 ppg. PSU scoring offense last game: 9 points. Pathetic.

GAME PREDICTION: I got ahead of myself last week, thinking PSU would score against a mediocre UM defense. They could have, but the coaches didn’t let them. This week that should change. Whether or not UI lost the Mizzou game didn’t matter. It was still a close game against an OK team. None of UI’s opponents have had a defense like PSU does. UI QB Williams will make some great plays, but also some mistakes. Those mistakes will cost UI the game. PSU’s secondary will have their best game of the season, and will finally get the stats to show. PSU will easily cover the spread, but scare some folks doing it.

PSU 28, UI 18

VEGAS:

PSU (-3) UI

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 20, UI 27

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PSU/UM stream of thoughts

START, 1st QUARTER: This is it. Let’s go state.

5:29 left, 1st quarter: What the hell is Morelli doing? He looks like it’s his first football game ever. The offensive line is actually giving him enough time, but he’s holding on to the ball. Negative plays won’t win this game. If Penn State doesn’t get into the game, this one will get out of hand, quicker than it already has.

PSU 0, UM 7

Start, 2nd quarter: There’s that slant/post again. Has the PSU coaching staff learned nothing in the last year? Allowing 3rd down conversions will get any offense geared up, and giving UM the 3rd and 10 conversion won’t help. Scirrotto tried to knock the ball out of Arrington’s arms, but should have just made the tackle. Arrington almost got free. The offense better get it on this quarter.

14:48 left, 2nd quarter: Nice sack and forced fumble. Scrap needs to keep sending the pressure… What?! That call is bullshit. Forward pass? He was down, if anything. The refs are getting their game going early. Oh well. Let’s go Morelli.

9:14 left, 2nd quarter: OK, you got on the board. Morelli looked scared when he shouldn’t have been. Butler was open. The offense did give the defense a rest, and now need a good stop when UM takes the field. That slant was the perfect call, especially when UM took the bait and blitzed. You said it Brad Nessler, “should have been.”

PSU 3, UM 7

5:08 left, 2nd quarter: PSU’s defense is playing well when Hart isn’t in the game. That’s not good enough. Scrap needs to tell his secondary to attack the ball. There have been two balls so far that should have been picked off. Where are the turnovers? UM has forced one and could have had another. PSU needs a short field one of these times. Why does the field look so small when the PSU offense is on the field, and UM makes it look huge? Come on.

2:56 left, 2nd quarter: UM missed a 29-yarder, that’s something PSU usually does.

2:02 left, 2nd quarter: nice guys, no offensive pep. Three-and-out is not what you needed after that missed FG.

1:14 left, 2nd quarter: Timeout PSU. After two straight runs, UM is in 3rd and long. Now, this is a good opportunity for the PSU defense. Get the stop and get the ball. Scrap better blitz.

1:05 left, 2nd quarter: THAT’S WHY YOU BLITZ. Assholes. A 15-yard gain? That’s not acceptable. This is how PSU lost last time.

00:32 left, 2nd quarter: This is stupid. PSU is not playing like they want this game. Dan Connor is huffing and puffing. Maybe if the offense got anything going. Mallet just threw it away under pressure.

00:19 left, 2nd quarter: What’s wrong with PSU today? Oh wait, I know, they’re playing Michigan! They’re lucky Mallet just overthrew that ball in the end zone.
00:10 left, 2nd quarter: INTERCEPTION, PSU. OK, not like it matters. PSU takes a knee, and should be pissed off right now. END, FIRST HALF.

6:09 left, 3rd quarter: I can’t take this. PSU finally gets something going, and Scott fumbles again. They’re reviewing it, but I think it was out. He should be benched the rest of the year. It stands. UM ball. I knew it was too good to be true.

4:00 left, 3rd quarter: 3rd and 5. UM converts. Scrap is allowing the defense to get soft on 3rd down, and it’s not working. PSU is playing like they don’t care anymore.

3:47 left, 3rd quarter: FUMBLE, PSU recovers. Not that PSU will do anything with this. Pass incomplete to Hahn. Kinlaw rush for -2. Pass complete to Quarless for 11 yards. PSU better go for it. They are. This is make or break time.

2:20 left, 3rd quarter: Kinlaw rush for 2. Lucky he wasn’t blown dead where it should have, short. Pass interference on pass to Quarless. Now this is something PSU has to take advantage of.

1:20 left, 3rd quarter: 3rd and goal, PSU. Holding, PSU. UM is debating. Take the foul. PSU got a win-win right there.

00:23 left, 3rd quarter: 3rd and goal, again, 12 yard line. Pass to Bell incomplete. “Why do you throw a pattern to the four yard line?” asked Paul MacGuire. You said it, Paul.

14:00 left, 4th quarter: PSU’s defense is playing so soft, it’s ridiculous. Mallet almost had another 10-yard out route. If UM scores, it could be over for PSU.

13:09 left, 4th quarter: Why the hell doesn’t PSU try to strip the ball more? It’s 8 yards a pop with him. God, I hate Mike Hart. But actually, right now, I hate PSU more. You can’t just tackle him, that’s not good enough. You need to strip the ball, dammit!

11:24 left, 4th quarter: Crossing route to Mathews. First down, UM. There is no pressure on Mallet. And now watch, there will be two runs with Hart, then a short pass for a TD. Well, there’s a Hart run. Another Hart run. Now, will it be?

9:45 left, 4th quarter: Flag? Pass interference, PSU. THAT’S BULLSHIT! Why don’t the refs give it to them? Oh wait, they are. Here comes another Hart run.

8:52 left, 4th quarter: Another Hart run, TOUCHDOWN, UM. He barely got across that line. Doesn’t matter. PSU gave up.

PSU 6, UM 14 : You know, I honestly thought PSU was up for this game. Apparently not so. I was under the impression that this was the year they’d do it, Morelli would settle down, and the ground game wouldn’t matter. Well, Paterno and the staff is playing right into UM’s strategy. Why does PSU play so tight on the road? We’ll never win unless that changes.

8:02 left, 4th quarter: Crossing pattern to Williams complete for a first down. It’s about time PSU went to Williams. And another pass to Williams. Keep going.

6:58 left, 4th quarter: 38-yard long run, Kinlaw. Nice blocking. Kinlaw switched arms, unlike Scott. Royster in for Kinlaw. It’s make or break time for PSU.

6:06 left, 4th quarter: FIELD GOAL, PSU. DAMMIT. I know that if PSU scores a TD, it will mean the lead, but I just hate that they couldn’t get the ball in the end zone. PSU should be running screens, not draws and short patterns. Take some shots deep or use more crossing patters. Get a screen to Williams out of the backfield. DO SOMETHING!

PSU 9, UM 14 Hart ran for 93 yards to the left side.

4:40 left, 4th quarter: 3rd and 11. PSU needs this stop. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made it. They did. Where the hell was the pass rush? UM could run out the clock, with 3:30 left.

2:20 left, 4th quarter: 3rd and 11. This could be the worst game PSU’s played against UM since 2001. UM timeout. If PSU gives up the first down, it’s all over.

1:34 left, 4th quarter: 4th and 11. I don’t know what happened. Because the commercial break took too long, the clock is running down, and UM didn’t get any yards. Timeout.

This is 2005 all over again. No timeouts, full field.

Drive starts at 1:20 left, 4th quarter.

Morelli throws it away.

Morelli throws it away.

Good job.

Incomplete to Quarless. 4th down.

Incomplete.

PSU LOST THIS GAME, UM DIDN’T WIN IT.

PSU 9, UM 14

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No. 10 Penn State vs. Michigan, Preview

School: University of Michigan (UM), Wolverines
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Lloyd Carr, 12th Year, 114-38-0
Last Game: Def. Notre Dame 38-0
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 47-16; 1-4 in bowls; 14-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Shawn Crable, DL Brandon Graham, LB John Thompson

Key Players, Offense: RB Mike Hart, QBs Chad Henne/Ryan Mallet, WR Mario Manningham

What to look for: D - ND was held to 10 first downs and a net 79 yards on 55 plays. But that's no reflection of the UM defense so far. They will face this week an actual, living offense. While PSU doesn't run the spread like Oregon or Appalachian State, it is a much, much faster and smarter team than ND. It could be a blessing or a curse that last week UM could basically sit back and let ND lose the game. LB Crable said he was called out for lack of leadership in the first two games. The defense will need him. It will be up to the front seven to hold PSU down as long as possible, so that the offense can get on the board. If UM allows PSU to run the ball, it will be a very long day.

O - This has been one of the most talented groups of skill players in the nation the last three years. Not that they've won anything with it. UM's backfield and WR's could roll over opponents, but for some reason, don't against any team with a pulse. RB Hart last week guaranteed a win. Well, hell, I could guarantee a win if the other team were no better than a pee-wee squad. This week, it will be up to Hart to again carry the load. If QB Henne starts, he could still have some problems with mobility, a bad sign for UM. If the UM O-line can't hold off PSU's pass rush, WRs Manningham and Arrington will not be a factor in this one. UM has to keep its defense off the field.

ST - This has been fun for viewers, and simply horrid for fans. If only UM could make one of those two missed field goals in the opening day loss to ASU, how would have the other games gone? UM will need all the points they can get, and missed field goals and bad punts will kill momentum. Kicking away from PSU's returners and hanging punts as high as possible should allow UM to work with good field position on defense. They can't start with short fields.

C - HC Lloyd Carr has been beaten to a pulp by UM fans. But he's not done yet. The ND win bought him some time, but this week it's do or die. If UM falls, it could realistically be a 6-7 win season. Two of those in three years is unthinkable. He'll be gone if that happens. The UM staff has to get up for this one, and they want to hit PSU where it's hurt most in recent meetings, hanging in until the last minute, then rely on the referees to give you a bogus call, allowing UM to score or stop a score. Yeah, this has been personal for years.

Fun Stat: Until the last two games of 2006 and the first two games of 2007, UM has never given up 30+ points in four straight games.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-121-3
Last Game: Defeated Buffalo, 45-24
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE/LB Jerome Hayes, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, Entire O-line, All RBs

What to look for: D – Stop the run. It’s not a complex game plan. If the PSU front seven can stuff RB Hart at the line, and prevent any yards after contact, PSU should run away with this one. DTs Ogbu and Odrick have been more dominant than expected this season, and if the penetration is there on run plays, it will be there on pass plays. DE/LB Hayes has been a menace to opposing QBs, and whether it’s Henne or Mallet under center, PSU needs to get pressure. If UM happens to get into any sort of rhythm on offense, the PSU secondary has to step up and fill in for any front line shortfalls. A pick by CB King or S Scirrotto could change the game in one play. If PSU doesn’t send the blitz on almost every play, they’re crazy.

O – This is the scary part. PSU hasn’t really faced a good defense all year. And the only struggles have been against teams in the first quarter, something the PSU offense can’t have in Michigan Stadium. Getting on the board first is key, but if UM scores first, the PSU offense has to answer on the next possession. QB Morelli has been playing smarter as the year goes on, and is starting to look like the bowl-version again. Of course, if there’s not ground game, PSU could be in for a long day. I don’t see that happening, as the run blocking has improved and if the RBs can hold on to the ball, PSU should be fine. UM’s front line is not as powerful as in 2006, so there would be no reason for PSU to be handled up front.

ST – If PSU wins the field position battle, they could almost guarantee a win in this game. P Boone has been more like “boom” on punts, and K Kelly has had 17 TBs on 20 KOs. UM’s terror KR Breaston is gone, so there’s no excuse for PSU to fail in kick coverage. PSU has arguably the best return game in the nation, and has to use every opportunity it gives them.

C – OK Paterno, it’s time to let go. Stop playing tight against UM and just do what you do best on both sides of the ball. The coaching staff needs to let Morelli throw the deep ball early, as Oregon used it in deadly fashion against UM. ICOD Bradley has to trust his guys to play in space. Early in this season, the pressure up front has kept opponents down. PSU needs to get UM out of its game plan early.

Fun Stat: Penn State's 135 points in its first three games is the highest total since 1999 (131 points).

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 30, UM 17

VEGAS:

PSU (-3) UM

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 9, UM 14

More below the fold...

PSU 31 - UB 10

How could the PSU give up a TD against Buffalo? Oh well, better to get it over with now. Morelli is "looking" good. (remember, I can't see the game) Kinlaw is pacing the offense, and could be the POG. But I think that should go to Morelli, as of now. That could change. This game has made the RB position race very interesting for this week before going to the Pig House. You better shape up quickly PSU.

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No. 12 Penn State vs. Buffalo, Preview

School: University at Buffalo (UB), Bulls
Conference: Mid-American
Head Coach: Turner Gill, 2nd Year, 3-11
Last Game: Def. Temple, 42-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 7-51; 0-0 in bowls; 2-18 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Larry Hutchinson, DE Trevor Scott, WR Simon Manka (not typo)

Key Players, Offense: RB Mario Henry, QB Drew Willy, K A.J. Principe

What to look for: D – The UB defense couldn’t expect much against an elite team like Rutgers in week one (yes, I believe RU is now an elite team), but the unit made up for the loss with a dominating performance against Temple. LB Hutchinson led the defense with eight total tackles, four TFLs (-25), two FF, a FR and three sacks (-24). Of course, UB needs that kind of production from him again to look respectable against PSU’s offense. DE Scott was also a menace to UT’s backfield, racking up six total tackles and two sacks (-22).

O – QB Willy missed only two passes (22 att.) last week, tossing two TDs and no INTs. UB has to get the short passing game going early, but can’t be afraid to chuck it long every so often. Otherwise, they’ll have no chance of gaining yards on the ground. OK, so they have no chance on the ground anyway, so just let it fly. If the offense can get any sort of protection up front, Willy can make some plays. If not, UB must hope RB Henry is a good pass protector.

ST – I listed WR Manka as a key defensive player, but he’s really a key special teamer because he blocked a punt last week, and could make the difference between a blowout and a scare for PSU. K Principe may get the only points of the day. He’s perfect on all kicks this year. If UB doesn’t improve its kick coverage, they’re in trouble against PSU’s excellent return games.

C – HC Turner Gill will get the program going, but not this week. There’s no Mike Rozier or, well, Turner Gill on this offense. He’ll have to be a magician to get offensive production, and should spread things out as much as possible. Unlike ND last week, UB has nothing to lose or gain. Gill will take some chances.

Fun Stat: In 1900 – the last time UB and PSU met – UB shutout PSU 10-0.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 365-121-3
Last Game: Defeated Notre Dame, 31-10
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, CB Lydell Sargeant, all DTs

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, WR Deon Butler, RB Austin Scott

What to look for: D – National player of the week isn’t a bad honor. LB Connor has been all over the field, but may not get the numbers this week, as HC Paterno wants to rest his starters as much as possible. I listed SC Sargeant as a key defensive player mainly due to the upcoming game at Michigan. Sargeant needs a strong performance against UB in order to fully prepare for next week. Also, as much as the defensive line has harassed opposing offensive lines, it hasn’t really been tested. UB is the first team PSU is facing that has a 100-yard rusher this season, and he’s no Mike Hart. DTs Ogbu, Odrick and Taylor must get into the backfield to break up run plays so the LBs don’t have to.

O – It was a so-so outing for QB Morelli against ND, but that can’t happen against UB. Last season, Morelli had a poor day against Youngstown St., looking very disinterested. That shouldn’t be the case with this game. He has to play sharp, and any less than 73 percent completions must be viewed as disappointing. PSU’s leading receiver in 2005-06, Butler has been relatively quiet in 2007. This will be his chance to get back in the groove, as Morelli should take more shots deep if UB comes out with any type of man coverage on the outside. RB Scott may carry the ball only 10-15 times, but it’s very important he walks away with an average of more than 8 ypc. Again, this week will be use to build depth behind the starters.

ST – Wow! When was the last time PSU’s special teams were actually “special” like they were against ND? Paterno said there have been no changes to who coaches the ST, but I think he made some wholesale changes to how much time is spent on the return and kicking games. WR Williams juked, spun and flew past the likes of ND’s Zbikowski to score the 78-yard PR TD, and could get another this week. K Kevin Kelly looked healthy and much stronger that last year, and should return to his 2005 form. He’s had 11 touchbacks on 16 kickoffs. P Jeremy Boone (more like Jeremy “Boom!”) has been outstanding.

C – Don’t get too vanilla this week. But don’t show all the cards before Michigan. If ICOD (“In charge of defense, PSU calls it) Bradley uses the same amount of blitzes from last week, this game will be over in the second quarter. Use the backups as much as possible. PSU should try to run up the score and put the game away before halftime. Michigan will be tired after playing their tails off against ND, PSU shouldn’t be.

Fun Stat: Beginning with the 12-0 win over Purdue last year, the PSU defense has allowed 6.5 ppg, and 225.9 ypg.

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 44, UB 3

VEGAS:

PSU (-34.5) UB

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 45, UB 24

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Good Win, Abeit, a little slopply

OK, so 31-10 is a nice, comfy margin of victory. However, I wasn't completely comfortable with how PSU played as a whole on offense. Turnovers killed everything in the first half, and many of them were stupid mistakes. Morelli should have slid, or at least gotten out of bounds on the pre-half time fumble. Oh well, more will come on this win through the week.

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