No 14 PSU vs. Notre Dame Preview

School: University of Notre Dame (ND), Fighting Irish
Conference: Independent
Head Coach: Charlie Weis, 3rd Year, 17-9
Last Game: Lost to Georgia Tech, 33-3
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 40-22; 0-4 in bowls; 0-0 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: S Tom Zbikowski, S David Bruton, DE Trevor Laws

Key Players, Offense: QB Jimmy Clausen, TE John Carlson, T Sam Young

What to look for: ND was just awful against GT last week. HC Weis can only hope his assistant coaches can make the necessary adjustments to prevent another embarrassing loss. Those solutions have to start with the lines, both of them. I listed T Young as one of ND’s key players this week, primarily on the idea that if QB Clausen remains upright, ND actually has a chance. Unfortunately for ND, it will take more than just one lineman to fix the pass protection. The deadly-effective seam routes used in 2006 against PSU might be few and far between, as Clausen is not nearly as experienced as former-QB Quinn was. The ND run defense was really the damning factor against GT, as GT RB Choice almost ran for 200. In 2003, PSU gave up 200 rypg and went 3-9! This could be one of those years for ND. With the departure of RB Walker, ND was left with a stable of backs, but none who can carry the load right now. RB’s Aldridge and Allen will have to step up to keep the pressure off Clausen.

If there was one bright spot for ND against GT, it was the play of S Bruton, who notched nine tackles, two TFLs and a sack. DE Laws also fought hard in the losing effort, with nine tackles, a QB hurry and a blocked field goal. S Zbikowski was a non-factor against GT, and will be out for blood against PSU. Last year, he was the nail in PSU’s coffin with a 27-yard fumble return for a TD to start the second half.

Fun Stat: Notre Dame has not won a bowl game since the Cotton Bowl against Texas A&M, Jan. 1, 1994.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 364-121-3
Last Game: Defeated FIU, 59-0
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, CB Justin King, S Anthony Scirrotto

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, WR Derrick Williams, any RB

What to look for: If PSU seriously wants to contend for a NC in 2007, it starts with this game. The two fumbles against FIU were too many, and if PSU gets into TO trouble against ND, things could get scary in a hurry. QB Morelli set school passing records for a half with 231 against FIU, and absolutely has to mimic that performance against ND. Fans stormed the message boards all week after PSU’s running game failed to produce big numbers against FIU, but no need to worry. It’s only because PSU is traditionally a run-first team that made the pass-first approach so uncomfortable. RB’s Scott, Kinlaw and Royster ran hard against FIU even late in the game. The O-line protected Morelli better than any QB in recent history. If ND tried to pressure the passing game, PSU should be able to handle it with short slants and draws. WR Williams has to make more plays, period.

On the defensive side, there is not much for PSU fans to be concerned with, as that unit logged one of its most impressive outings in a long time. I know, it was FIU, but they looked great. DC Bradley will use GT’s blitz frequency with guys like LB/DE Jerome Hayes, who has already emerged as a difference-maker. S Scirrotto has been dying for another INT after leading the Big Ten in 2006 with six; he’ll get it. One of the biggest surprises from last week was the play of the D-line, DE’s Evans and Gaines, and T’s Odrick and Ogbu. They frequently raided the running lanes all game long. For once in a long time, PSU’s D-line is just as tall (average height is 6’4”) as opposing O-lines. ND QB Clausen is not that tall, and could have trouble if PSU’s D-line gets those arms up. If there are any problems with the offense, P Boone should be able to bail them out, averaging 47 ypp against FIU, with two 50+ punts.

Fun Stat: PSU has shut out three of its last six opponents.

GAME PREDICTION: This could be a mirror image of the 2006 contest. I’ve been impressed with PSU’s raw talent this season, and expect it to be just too much for ND. PSU will move the ball well in the first half, but not roll over ND. The PSU defense will force a TO or two, giving PSU’s offense good field position. ND will start Clausen, as said by Weis, but he will struggle mightily against PSU’s superior speed in the secondary. Look for at least two INTs by PSU, one possibly going for a TD.

Morelli and Co. have every reason to believe they can get the offense steaming along by halftime, again using the pass to set up the run. PSU will not get a 100-yard rusher, but will combine for another 200+ rush yards this week, though it may not come easy at first. PSU should pull away from a tight match, scoring 14-17 points in the second quarter. The second half will see ND behind and trying to play catch-up, something PSU loves to sink its teeth into.

PSU 38, ND 15

VEGAS:

PSU (-17.5) ND

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 31, ND 10