No. 22 Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State, Preview

School: Ohio State University (OSU), Buckeyes
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 69-14 overall
Last Game: Defeated Michigan State, 24-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 55-9 overall; 5-1 in bowls; 19-1 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB James Laurinaitis, DE Vernon Gholston, LB Larry Grant

Key Players, Offense: RB Chris Wells, WR Brian Robiskie, QB Todd Boeckman

What to look for: D – This is the best defense in college football, no doubt about it. OSU essentially shut out MSU last week, with only three points coming off a late FG. Had OSU not given up the TDs off turnovers, they would be giving up less than 6 ppg. Laurinaitis is having an AA-caliber season, even if his stats aren’t out of this world. He’s always in the right place at the right time. OSU will need every bit of Laurinaitis and his fellow ‘backers, Grant and Marcus Freeman. While Grant has been the least publicized, he’s been more productive than anyone on the defense, racking up 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks and an INT. Between the LBs and the line, led by Gholston, OSU has to make stopping the PSU run game priority No. 1. Forcing PSU QB Morelli to win the game will allow the OSU secondary to roam free, without stacking the box.

O – This is not the best offense in college football, though some would make it seem that way. Yes, I know 415 ypg is great, but working with a defense like theirs, OSU never has to worry about making mistakes. OSU hasn’t faced a defense as good or consistent at PSU, or an environment like Beaver Stadium at night this season. Boeckman almost lost the game last week, and if he commits any bad turnovers this week, OSU may not be able to cover it up. Look for a healthy dose of Wells to keep the clock moving and the PSU offense off the field. If OSU can hit a few deep ones to Robiskie or WR Brian Hartline, it can keep PSU off balance. The problem is, PSU plays much better against conventional attacks, like OSU’s, and in hostile territory, OSU will have plenty of communication problems to deal with. OSU will have to avoid stupid penalties, especially in long down situations, as it will only encourage the PSU crowd.

ST – This is Tressel’s forte, but turned out to be less of a factor in 2007. But in a place like Beaver Stadium, OSU will need every point it can muster, which is where K Ryan Pretorius comes in. He’s 13/16 on the year and can’t afford to miss any against PSU. The return game hasn’t been the same since Ted Ginn departed, and in a big game like this, OSU may need a spark from a big return. Field position hasn’t been a problem either, as P AJ Trappasso should win the Ray Guy award, and can keep PSU pinned deep all night.

C – Tressel is the man recently in the Big Ten. Next to USC’s Pete Carroll and Texas’ Mack Brown, not coach has been more consistent. However, PSU has played OSU tough every year, and this week at PSU will make things even worse. Tressel is 1-2 when playing at PSU, with the one win by a single point (21-20, 2003). He failed to unleash his offense in 2005 until the final drive, and it cost OSU the game. If Tressel pulls a “Paterno” and goes conservative on the road, PSU could spring the upset.

Interesting Stat: The buckeye confection, made to resemble the tree's nut, is made by dipping a dollop of peanut butter fudge in milk chocolate, leaving a circle of the peanut butter exposed. These are a popular treat in Ohio, especially during the Christmas and NCAA college football seasons. How gay, if you ask me!

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 369-123-3
Last Game: Def. Indiana, 36-31
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, CB Justin King, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – There’s something wrong with college football is Evans isn’t selected lineman of the year. His 10.5 sacks and 17.5 TFL leads the conference, and he’s poised to set school records left and right. PSU will need him on every play against OSU. PSU held Kellen Lewis in check pretty well last week until the last TD run. But Boeckman doesn’t have that run threat for PSU to worry about. So look for more blitzes with Connor and Lee coming as a fifth rusher. OSU’s line is much stronger than IU’s, but even a diluted pass rush should be effective against a stationary Boeckman. James Hardy hosed King last week, but OSU doesn’t have a Hardy. If King can lock down Robiskie, PSU can get more pressure on stopping the run. With DLs Odrick and Hayes out, the line has to step up and forget about being tired. There’s no reason for a poor showing from this unit in Beaver Stadium, unless…

O – The offense puts them in holes. I must say that this unit is night-and-day better than the first half of 2007, but haven’t faced a team like OSU yet. Morelli had one really bad throw last week on the INT, but it wasn’t critical or deep in PSU territory. Regardless, PSU can’t afford any turnovers this week. Morelli did a super job finding the hot receivers and recognizing coverage/blitzes last week, and OSU is sure to try to confuse the living hell out of him. But PSU can avoid relying on Morelli to win the game if the offensive line can get a good push. Kinlaw has been a huge surprise this season, and when he’s not going, RB Evan Royster has shown his youthful brilliance. Like in the 2005 edition, this game could come down to a few pick plays, one of them being when Williams took a pitch in for a TD run, outrunning AJ Hawk in the process. Get Williams in the open with some blockers, and he’s gone to the races.

ST – Special teams bailed out the offense last week, as K Kevin Kelly hit all of his FGs. Hopefully for PSU, this unit won’t be needed as a difference-maker. The biggest focus for PSU should be on kickoffs and punts coverage. If OSU is forced to start drives deep in its own territory, PSU has the defense to make a 90-yard drive nearly impossible.

C – Paterno has to let his coaches do their thing again. It worked great at IU, and can work at home just the same. Let Morelli throw some deep, and don’t be afraid to call some shots to the middle of the field. In 2005, Paterno opted to go for it on 4th-and-2 on PSU’s first scoring drive. PSU needs that sort of confidence in their coaching staff to win in 2007.

Interesting Stat: PSU has only hosted a No. 1 team once, Notre Dame in 1989 (PSU loss 34-23). Paterno is 4-7 all-time against No. 1 teams.

GAME PREDICTION (assuming it rains): This will not disappoint fans. Beaver Stadium will once again live up to its “Greatest Show in College Football” moniker. OSU will take its first drive and move the ball well, scoring a TD to make the PSU fans uneasy. But PSU will come back, kicking a FG to come within four, midway through the second quarter. A tipped Boeckman pass will be picked off by DE Josh Gaines and returned to the OSU 20. PSU will get a quick score from Royster, 10-7 PSU. OSU will get one last possession before the half, with just enough time to tie it on a FG. 10-all at halftime. Neither team will score in the third quarter, exchanging turnovers and punts in a boring stretch. OSU’s Wells will rip off a 25 yarder in the fourth, but a missed handoff will force OSU to settle for a FG. 13-10 OSU. PSU will get the ball back with less than 6 minutes to go, and facing third and very long, get a pass interference call to continue the drive. Morelli will capitalize and on the next play, hit WR Deon Butler inside the five. Three straight runs will result in a Kinlaw TD. OSU will turn it over on downs inside the PSU 35, and PSU runs the clock to less than a minute. Three hail mary’s later… PSU 17, OSU 13. I just can’t see PSU losing at home. I know, UM did it, but his is OSU. PSU’s actually beaten them this century.

PSU 17, OSU 13

VEGAS:

PSU (+3.5) OSU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 17, OSU 37