Penn State vs. Purdue, Preview

School: Purdue University (PU), Boilermakers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 82-51 overall
Last Game: Defeated Northwestern, 35-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-27; 1-3 in bowls; 14-6 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Terrell Vinson, DE Cliff Avril, LB Anthony Heygood

Key Players, Offense: QB Curtis Painter, WR Dorien Bryant, RB Jaycen Taylor

What to look for: D – The PU defense hasn’t really ever lived up to matching the offense. In 2005, ALL 11 starters returned to PU, but because of personality issues, completely imploded becoming one of the worst units in the nation. This season, it’s been no different from many past seasons, where the defense is not horrible, but won’t win games for PU. Tiller needs his guys to put together their best performance of the season. Vinson not only leads the team in tackles, but also in INTs. A playmaker like that could spell trouble for the PSU offense. PU’s best defensive performance came at Iowa, giving up a mere 6 points, but that was against the Big Ten’s worst offense. Heygood has been huge for PU, racking up 11 TFL and 30 solo tackles. Blowing up the PSU run game in the backfield is a must, forcing Morelli to win the game, something he couldn’t do last week against OSU.

O – The PU offense has been Tiller’s bread and butter since he arrived in West Lafayette. Painter has emerged as one of the conference’s premier QBs, and although he struggled against the big two (UM and OSU), he’s had a fantastic year so far. Bryant had 7 rec. for 65 yards and a TD last week, but couldn’t get the big play PU needed against a mediocre NW team on the road. If Taylor can get a few good runs early against PSU, PU can mix it up on offense. When the run game doesn’t work, the PU pass game gets predictable. PU ran for 4 and 39 yards against OSU and UM, respectively, and was blown out in both. PSU’s defense is still one of the best in the nation, and won’t give PU much wiggle room. PU’s O-line has been pretty good this season, outside of the UM and OSU losses. Keeping Painter upright is critical if PU wants to walk out of Beaver Stadium with a win.

ST – Bryant is not only one of the best WRs in the nation, he’s one of the top KR as well. PU will want to work with good field position, especially if it’s starting on the student section’s end of the field. What is good in the KR game is lacking in the PR game, as PU ranks 81st in the country. In what could become a rough day against the PSU defense, points will come at a premium, so Summers will have to keep up his strong performance (9-12 FG, 42-42 PAT) against PSU.

C – Tiller has given PU a level of consistency it’s rarely had in the past. Since his hiring in 1997, he’s won more games than any PU coach before him. He’s only beaten PSU once in Happy Valley, a 20-13 decision in 2004 when PU was ranked No. 9 and PSU would finish 4-7. Tiller has to rally his troops and get on the board early. He should give Painter throws he can make, and throw in a few runs to mix it up.

Interesting Stat: Last season’s 12-0 loss to PSU was the first ever shutout of a Tiller-coached PU team.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 369-124-3
Last Game: Lost to Ohio State, 37-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Lydell Sargeant, CB Justin King, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, WR Deon Butler, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – The PSU defense is pissed off, rightfully so. PSU hasn’t given up that many points since allowing 41 to MSU in 2003, and hasn’t lost by that much since a 20-0 loss to UM in 2001. But, OSU is No. 1 for a reason, and PSU is 6-3 for a reason too. For the first time all season, LB Dan Connor is not on the key defensive players listed above. I think after last week’s horrid performance in the secondary, Sargeant and King will have to step up and play much smarter football. Evans fell behind in the conference sack race, mainly due to an awesome OSU front five, but this week should get back into the swing of things. PU doesn’t run the ball well against good teams, and while OSU didn’t roll over PSU, it did get 133 out of Chris Wells. Stop the run this week, and PSU can focus on getting pressure on the passing game.

O – What happened after that first drive last week? PSU looked calm, collected and confident in its first possession against OSU, driving the length of the field and scoring a go-ahead TD. Then it fell flat on its face. Morelli has to check down as well as he did on that first drive, and not make the crucial errors that sealed the OSU win. I was really surprised PSU didn’t try any deep passes, as Kinlaw ran very, very well against the nation’s best run defense. Against PU, Kinlaw has to stick to his game and get those 4-5 yards a pop. If this WR corpse (yes, corpse, b/c that’s what it seemed like last week) doesn’t wake up, PSU will finish 7-5. Too many times, key drops and failure to break away deep cost PSU points. I won’t blame it completely on the WRs though, as the line didn’t really help last week. PU can be taken apart on defense, as long as the PSU line and WRs get a hold of themselves.

ST – Finally, Paterno admitted KR/CB AJ Wallace needs to get the ball more. It’s too bad his 97-yard KR TD came after PSU lost the game. If Wallace doesn’t get a few touches this week against PU, either in the KR game or on offense, it will be a huge waste of talent. K Kevin Kelly and P Jeremy Boone have kept opponents pinned deep all season, but on a few scary occasions, the coverage teams have allowed big returns. With PU’s Bryant leading the conference in KR, and PU scoring twice on KR, PSU has to be careful. No cheap points this week.

C – Against OSU, Tom Bradley called easily his worst game ever, allowing the CBs to play 10-12 yards off the receivers. You just can’t do that against a passing team like PU. It’s necessary to jam PU and allow the pass rush to do its thing. Paterno has been rightfully criticized for his failure to go for it on 4th and 2 at the OSU 38, a call that could have changed the game. He can’t be conservative this week,

Interesting Stat: Rodney Kinlaw’s 81 net rushing yards is the second highest individual total against OSU in 2007. Washington’s Jake Locker gained the most in a game with 102 yards.

GAME PREDICTION: With a pissed off defense and a pissed off offense, PSU will come out and play like it is their last in Beaver Stadium–and should, considering, well, it is their last in Beaver Stadium. PSU has won 16 of 17 senior days, most of which were PSU blowouts. The PSU offense will start with a short field, and get on the board first despite a 3rd and long following a sack. 7-0 PSU. PU will answer with a nice little drive of its own, but fail again and again to convert deep in PSU territory. 14-6 at the half. PU will get the ball to start, but a Justin King INT will set up Morelli inside the PU 40. Kinlaw will take a draw down inside the 10. Two plays later, FB Dan Lawlor will punch it in. PU will make things interesting late in the third, with a TD and a 2pt conversion. 21-14, PSU. PU will kick a 4th quarter FG, but PSU will come right back and score on two long drives, eating up a ton of clock in the process.

PSU 31, PU 17

VEGAS:

PSU (-7) PU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 26, PU 19