First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini

I didn't pretend to know more than I did in the first four First Looks, as nothing substitutes for the intimate knowledge gained from playing the Big Ten foes year in and year out. Now First look will concentrate on the conference opponents, leading off with Penn State's Big Ten opening game, the Illinois Fighting Illini. If you told me two years ago that Illinois would go to the 2009 Rose Bowl, I'd say you were practically nuts. Well, Ron Zook and the Illini did just that, going from 2-9 and 2-10 to 9-4 over the last three seasons. And while the program is certain to post a winning record in their encore season, the Illini will probably have a tough time matching 2007's nine wins.

1. Champaign is a long way from Gainesville -- It seems like ages since Florida fans were calling for Ron Zook's head in The Swamp. The Illini thought Ron Turner was their ticket to glory after he lead the 2001 squad to the Sugar Bowl and an outright Big Ten championship. Things quickly turned sour, and after three straight losing seasons with no sign of improvement, Turner was let go. The school invested a lot in Zook's hiring, which paid off in the end. He proclaimed that Illinois' 63-10 drubbing by Penn State in 2005--a game in which PSU lead 56-3 at the half--would be their lowest point. It was. Not only is Zook a fantastic recruiter, but he's instilled a can-do mentality Illinois hasn't had since the Lou Tepper years. Don't expect the Illini to go anywhere but up from here.

2. Can the loss of one player hurt that bad? -- In this case, it might. Rashard Mendenhall arrived at Illinois with much fanfare in 2005, but didn't play much his first two seasons, gaining only 858 yards over that time. Then last season he exploded for 1681 yards and 15 touchdowns on his way to the Big Ten Player of the Year, Illinois' first since 1990. The problem came when Mendenhall declared early for the NFL, leaving quarterback Juice Williams as the leading returning rusher (755). None of the next three rushers cracked 300 yards in 2007, with Daniel Dufrene gaining 295. If you talk to Illini fans, they'll tell you there's excitement in the air surrounding Dufrene. After all, he was the guy who ripped off an 80-yard touchdown run in Columbus to upset No. 1 Ohio State last November. The Illinois faithful can only hope he can duplicate that kind of playmaking ability in 2008. But unless Williams makes leaps and bounds in his passing ability, don't count on the kind of rushing production Illinois has enjoyed the last two seasons.

3. The tough games just got tougher -- Most of Illinois' toughest games came at home in 2007. That's not the case in 2008, and combine that with the fact that Illinois isn't going to sneak up on anyone this season, don't count on the mammoth upsets of 2007. Missouri is returning most of its superstars. The Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin games are all on the road. And Ohio State is an even better team that it was last year. There are only seven games which Illinois should expect to win this season, but not even the home games against Iowa and Northwestern are certain victories. This team has nearly the same talent as it did in 2007, but experience is the biggest question mark. If Illinois can steal one in Madison, State College or Ann Arbor, fans should consider this season a success, as 2009 is shaping up to be a killer year for the Fighting Illini.

I'm out of town all this week (I'm actually in PA right now), so posting might be light. I promise, though, that I'll have something else up this week to quench some of the college football thirst.

Next week's First Look: Purdue Boilermakers

-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers