Preview: No. 3 Penn State vs. Michigan

Preview: Michigan at No. 3 Penn State
Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 18. 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cool, Partly Cloudy.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 7-0 (3-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Wisconsin, 48-7
Injuries: WR Brett Brackett (concussion - possible), RB Brent Carter (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), DE Devon Still (ankle) - out, S Nick Sukay (foot - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, C AQ Shipley;(defense) DE Jared Odrick, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 379-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 235.1 rush/247 pass/45.3 points per game
Defense - 89.9 rush/169.4 pass/11 points per game
TO Margin - (+8)

Why PSU will win -- The Michigan defensive front is very good, but they haven't faced an offensive line like Penn State's. With a sure-All America selection in A.Q. Shipley, and a few others working towards all-conference honors, Penn State just has to play to the line's strength. Lately, that's just about everything. The Nittany Lions have given up a total of SIX sacks this season, while plowing the way for the best rushing attack in the Big Ten. On the flip side of that, Penn State's defensive front has been the biggest, and most important, surprise this season. After losing so many players, then losing Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma for three games, no one thought the line would play as well. Um, not exactly. Penn State has been able to lean on the defensive line, in both pass and run defense. Penn State should be able to rush only four against Michigan, as they did against Wisconsin, and drop seven into coverage.

Visitor: Michigan Wolverines
Record: 2-4 (1-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Toledo, 13-10
Injuries: RB Brandon Minor (ribs - probable), DE Brandon Braham (leg - probable), WR Martavious Odoms (shoulder - probable), CB Donovan Warren (leg - probable), WR Junior Hemingway (Mono - out), LB Austin Panter (shoulder - out), RB Carlos Brown (foot - out), RB Mike Milano (susp. - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Sam McGuffie, QB Steven Threet; (defense) LB Obi Ezeh, DT Terrence Taylor
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez, 1st season at Michigan, 2-4; 8th year overall, 62-30
Season Statistics:
Offense - 130.7 rush/160.8 pass/18.8 points per game
Defense - 102.5 rush/241.7 pass/24.8 points per game
TO Margin - (-8)

Why Michigan will win -- While the offense has been almost a non-factor for Michigan, the defense has been quietly fantastic. It was the defense which turned the Wisconsin blowout into a Michigan win. If there's a chance for Michigan to jump on Penn State, it's with an early turnover or two. And while Wisconsin couldn't throw off Penn State by focusing in on stopping the run, Michigan's front seven could put enough pressure on Daryll Clark to force him into a few mistakes. On offense, the absolute only way Michigan can pull this one out is to not turn the ball over. It's plagued the Wolverines, highlighted by a six-turnover trip to South Bend, but can't come back again. Steven Threet (5 tds, 3 ints) has been the more consistent option at QB, but he hasn't gotten much help from the unit as a whole. There is talent, but no cohesion on offense. Michigan can only hope that the offense has an epiphany between now and Saturday, say, around 4:30 p.m.

What will happen -- I thought Wisconsin would put up a fight, any fight, against Penn State. But the deflating losses against Michigan and Ohio State were too much to overcome. What's Michigan thinking right now? Sure, they're saying that they will bring their best. Well then, what did they bring against Toledo? This game is a total mismatch, both on paper and in real life. Penn State will come out with fire in its eyes, seeking as much revenge as can be crammed into 60 minutes of football. The sheer desire to pound Michigan into the ground will keep Penn State focused enough to put this game away by the fourth quarter. After all, the Penn State coaches realize a win over Michigan doesn't come all that often, and will want to play as many of the backups as possible.

Prediction: No. 3 Penn State, 59 - Michigan, 13 (What?!?! Yeah, I went there.)