Thursday, October 16, 2008

Without Preconditions, Michigan blog talks with Zombie Nation

Michigan blogger Brad, from Maize & Blue Nation was kind enough to field some questions about this week's game in Happy Valley.

1. What's the state of Michigan football, right now?

MBN: "Michigan Football is slightly behind where I'd thought they'd be. I knew we would struggle, but not to this extent. I was hoping for at least 6-8 wins to be bowl-eligible and keep our streak alive, but that ship has sailed with losses to Toledo and Utah. They're rebuilding with a new coaching staff, a new offensive system and freshmen at almost every skill position. They have a young and inexperienced offensive line and very young receivers...and it shows.

There are Michigan die-hard fans out there who are very upset at the state of Michigan football right now. They somehow believed that rebuilding meant struggling in some non-conference games, and then by the conference schedule we'd be off to the races. That simply is just not the case. Michigan is having a difficult time finding their identity. And I'm afraid they won't find it this season. As much as the players try, it's just too much of a learning curve to figure out how to run the spread/option in one year with so many young players. I see it working in a year or two, but right now it's not pretty.

The good thing is that while we have struggled offensively to move the ball and score points, our defense has been reasonably decent. And by decent, I mean they've kept us in some games where we probably should have been well out of it by the 4th quarter (see: Wisconsin). Our DL and DEs and very good, and our LBs can hold their own, but do have trouble tackling from time to time in the open field. The real question mark is our secondary. When they play a man-to-man coverage scheme, they do pretty well. But for some reason Shafer likes to drop them into a soft zone, which means an easy 5-8 yard out for the other team's WRs. Very frustrating."
2. How much of Michigan's struggles have to do with coaching? How much with personnel?
MBN: "Like I said above, at least defensively, it's a little bit of both.

Offensively, it's very much a product of personnel. We just don't have the players to run this scheme very well. I think the spread/option is a great offense, in theory. But only when you have experienced players running it. When it works, it works very well, and when it doesn't work, it looks terrible.

Over time, just at with West Virginia, it will come to these players. It just takes repetition and for the players to get used to the motions. Playing games against good competition (like PSU) will also help this team grow into the system faster."
3. Is there anything, even one thing, that Michigan can do to win this game? What, and why?
MBN: "When it comes to playing games against better teams, all you can do is control what you can control. Don't turn the ball over, don't make mistakes on special teams, and limit the penalties. Unfortunately, these have been problems for Michigan this year.

Other than that, just go out there and try to play loose and give yourself the best chance to be in the game in the 4th quarter. When you keep underdogs around at the end of the game, the momentum shifts and can easily make the underdog feel suddenly like they can win. That might not happen this weekend, but if you're a Michigan fan, that's something to hope for.

Also, you can hope that Penn State comes into this game just so ridiculously over-confident, and looking past Michigan to Ohio State that you can somehow sneak up on them and by the time they realize that this is a game, Michigan has the momentum. Not probable, but it can happen."
4. Realistic score prediction? What might we see in this game?
MBN: "I'm terrible at score predictions. But I'll say Penn State wins 31-10.

I really don't know what we'll see from the Michigan offense. We're such a mystery right now. If it goes anything like the last 6 games, I think we'll see a lot of option-reads to McGuffie up the middle, maybe an off-tackle or two, of which we may have some moderate success. A lot of screen passes. A few downfield throws here and there that will probably sail 5 yards over the receiver's heads. All-in-all, just an offense that looks like it is trying too hard and not quite getting it.

Penn State will, I assume, pressure Threet or Sheridan with a lot of blitzes early. Michigan will not be able to establish a passing game, so Penn State will just stack 8 or 9 in the box and keep Michigan pinned all night long.

Defensively, I think Michigan will look pretty good early. We shouldn't give up too many big plays. But after our offense starts to really struggle and the defense stays on the field too long, Penn State will be able to capitalize on that and give themselves more good scoring opportunities.

It will only be Michigan's second time on the road this year, and it will be at a very hostile stadium. Michigan will surely lose this game, but hopefully we can at least keep it close and gain valuable experience."


*Check back later today for the complete Penn State vs. Michigan football preview.

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