Preview: Minnesota at No. 13/14 Penn State

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET/ABC Regional/ESPN Mirror (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Holly Rowe)
Weather Forecast: Cold, Constant Rain/Snow mix all weekend.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 6-4.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 5-1 (1-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Eastern Illinois, 52-3
Injuries: TB Brent Carter (knee) - possible; DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle) - out; LB Sean Lee (knee) - possible; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; T Nerraw McCormack (ankle) - possible; RT DeOn'Tae Pannell - possible; WR Devon Smith - possible; DT Brandon Ware (foot) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, RB Stephfon Green; (defense) The entire secondary, DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 388-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 188.7 rush/238.8 pass/31.2 points per game
Defense - 81.8 rush/173.8 pass/10.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-0.33) per game

Penn State, on paper -- The Nittany Lions are teetering on being a really good football team. The first three weeks of the season, Penn State was horribly average, especially in the second half of games. Most of the scores were blowouts by halftime, but virtually nothing would happen in the final two quarters. The defense was smothering mediocre and bad teams, while the offense left much to be desired. Then came the Iowa game. Penn State's flaws were exposed in painful fashion, as the Nittany Lions' inability to close out games came back to haunt them. The Hawkeyes hung around for three quarters, just waiting for Penn State to screw up. The Lions did, and Iowa walked away with a 16-point fourth quarter and 21-10 win.

However, since that loss, Penn State has seemed to turn things around. A trip to Illinois seemed to bare much of the same for Penn State, as the Lions led by only a 7-3 margin at halftime. Then the light went on, as Penn State went on to rush for more than 300 yards, including two 100-yard backs and an 82-yard day on the ground by Daryll Clark. Penn State's defense was also very impressive in the road victory, as the patented (yet sometimes gut-wrenching) bend-but-don't-break gave up a few big plays, but only 10 points before the game was well in hand.

Evan Royster (87 att, 5.8 ypc, 4 TD) and Stephfon Green (45 att, 5.5 ypc, 3 TD) are emerging as one of the premier one-two punches in the Big Ten, as the two have combined for 377 yards on the ground the last two games. Clark (228 ypg, 12/7 ratio) hasn't been nearly as explosive as he was at this point last season, but he has been a great steadying force for a young team. Of course, much of the last two weeks' production on offense can be attribute to the greatly improves play from the offensive line. Clark hasn't been sacked since the Iowa loss, while the run game has nearly doubled its production.

Visitor: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record: 4-2 (2-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Purdue, 35-20
Injuries: LB Nate Triplett (N/A) - probable; OL Trey Davis (N/A) - probable; P Dan Orseske (mono) - probable; S Mike Rallis (leg) - out for season;
Key Players: (offense) QB Adam Weber, WR Eric Decker, RB Duane Bennett; (defense) LB Lee Campbell, LB Nate Triplett, DT Eric Small
Head Coach: Tim Brewster, 3rd season at Minnesota, 12-19 overall.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 114.5 rush/205.2 pass/27.0 points per game
Defense - 162.7 rush/218.5 pass/23.8 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)/(-0.2) per game

Minnesota, on paper -- The Gophers have been a tough team to figure out this season. This is a team that's been out-gained by opponents by 61 yards per game, yet has found ways to win four of six games. The opener at Syracuse was about as big a headache as you could imagine, as the Gophers scored nine unanswered points after halftime to beat the Orange in overtime. It took another comeback to beat Air Force at home, a game in which the Falcons ran for 261 yards out of its wishbone offense. The Gophers were able to give Cal a run for its money, but four turnovers, including three picks by Adam Weber, doomed Minnesota's chance for a win. The Gophers have split their last four games, but have been out-gained in all of them. Add in the Air Force win, and Minnesota has been out-gained in five of six games this season.

Weber (204 ypg, 6/8 ratio) has been somewhat maligned this season by fans, but it hasn't been completely his fault. The offensive line has been terrible in pass protection, giving up 15 sacks in six games, while the running game hasn't made nearly the impact many were hoping for in the off-season. Turnovers have been Minnesota's biggest problem, though, particularly in both losses, to Cal and Wisconsin. On the flip side of that, the Minnesota defense hasn't been great, but continues to force key mistakes by opponents. In the Syracuse win, the defense set up the offense at the Orange 16 for an easy early touchdown. Against Wisconsin, a fumble return for a score gave the Gophers new life late. Last week against Purdue, three Boilermaker turnovers helped Minnesota secure the win in the second half.

With the Gophers offense taking its time to figure out how to be anything close to consistent, it will be up to the defense to step up and play big. The talent is there, but the unit hasn't come up with any sort of dominant, or even very good, performance this season. As the weather gets worse, and the new outdoor digs in Minneapolis, Tim Brewster's boys will lean more and more on the defense to, at the very least, make a big stop here or there in the clutch.

On the field -- You would think a team from Minnesota would have little issue playing in cold, wet, snowy conditions. That's not the case here, as the Gophers will face their first significant weather of the season. Of course, that doesn't exclude Penn State, which hasn't exactly overcome difficult conditions in any games so far. The forecast is for a mix of rain and snow, which has already hunkered down over the entire commonwealth. It could become very cold once the skies dim, sometime during the second half.

I'm looking closely at both teams' rushing games and rush defenses. Penn State doesn't just have an edge in these matchups; it's not even close. The Nittany Lions rank eighth in the nation in rush defense, while the Gophers are 99th in rush offense. Conversely, Minnesota's rush defense is ranked only 83rd nationally, while Penn State's rush attack is 32nd. Then again, both of those statistics are shaky. Minnesota had a terrible day against Air Force; Penn State has been roaring on the ground the last two weeks. This game will be a great gauge for both teams on the ground.

Then there's the special teams. Minnesota blocked a Purdue field goal and returned it for a touchdown last week. Penn State fans have been trying to forget what a blocked kick can do to the momentum of a game. But there's even more bad news for the Lions. Minnesota has been not just good, but phenomenal on special teams this season, which has been a huge factor in why they've been able to win four games despite being out-gained in five. The Gophers have averaged 19 yards per punt return. Penn State? 4.9, and no, that's not a typo. The Lions have been pathetic returning punts, just as they have been returning kickoffs. Penn State has stumbled its way to only 15 yards per kickoff return. Minnesota has been great, ripping off 27 yards per return. If the Gophers are going to win this game, it will more likely than not come down to special teams play.

While turnovers and special teams can be great equalizers in games that appear to be mismatches on paper, most of the time, the more talented teams will win the game. Penn State looks like that more talented team this week. I really like the Lions rushing attack against the Gophers defense. And while I won't doubt that Eric Decker will catch a few big passes, the Minnesota offense could sputter at key junctures in the game, similar to what happened to Illinois. Penn State doesn't look often at home the last five seasons, so I don't expect this game to buck that trend.

Extra points -- Daryll Clark might not throw for a touchdown, but could run for several... Penn State will score a defensive touchdown for the second straight week... But, so will Minnesota... Eric Decker will catch fewer than five passes... Minnesota will allow more than 200 rush yards, but less than 200 pass yards... Penn State will allow more than 100 rush yards, but less than 200 pass yards... The weather will keep this game from being sold out... Piles of snow might line the sidelines and end zones... The score at halftime will not be indicative of how each team played overall... The final score will be... Attendance prediction: 107,100 (due to weather)

Prediction: No. 13/14 Penn State, 31 - Minnesota, 20