Capital One Bowl Review: PSU 19, LSU 17

Let's not kid ourselves. There's only one thing that really matters: Penn State beat the SEC's third-best team.

Other than that, however, here are some observations on the win.

Stat of the game: 38:21

That's how long the Penn State offense held onto the ball. While it was quite painful to see the Nittany Lions fail time and again to punch it into the end zone, keeping the ball away from Jordan Jefferson was critically important. The ball-control objective seemed to become even more critical as the game progressed, when Jefferson and the Tigers scored 14 unanswered points to take the lead. Had Penn State not run off at least five minutes (it ran off 5:57) on its final drive, LSU might not have had to panic the way it did in the final minute.

Offensive player of the game: Daryll Clark

Collin Wagner's performance is so close, but the final drive by Clark sealed the deal for me. Specifically, the five yard pass to Graham Zug on 3rd-and-four was a thing of poised beauty. Clark went out on the highest note next to a national title. He exorcised the comeback demons, while proving to the nation that Penn State was far from overrated in 2009.

Defensive player of the game: Navorro Bowman

The sentimental pick here would have been Sean Lee, who did play a fantastic final game in the Blue and White. I must go with Bowman, however. Not only did he lead the team in tackles (7) and TFL (1.5), Bowman made the single best decision of the game by taking his sweet time getting off the pile, with precious seconds ticking away on LSU's final drive. Propelling Bowman's decision from just a good one to an all-timer, he drew the crucial personal foul which moved LSU back 15 yards.

Play of the game: Moye's 37-yard touchdown catch

Oh, how we all thought the Penn State offense would actually score touchdowns from then on. Tigers cornerback Patrick Peterson was playing press coverage -- as was most of the LSU secondary -- so Derek Moye and the offense took immediate advantage. Moye's double move to break behind Peterson was eerily reminiscent of the one he used to score against Northwestern. The result was the identical, however. Six points. (I'm sure many of you will disagree strongly with me picking this play, but I think it really sent an early message to LSU that Penn State came to play ball)

Final Thoughts

When Penn State played aggressive football, the Nittany Lions roared to a 16-3 lead. Clark was allowed to throw on first down, while multiple receivers ran free, even if they didn't always haul in the pass. The success through the air allowed for some decent runs by Evan Royster and Stephfon Green. Penn State was dominating the LSU defense. All the while, the Nittany Lion defenders were having a field day of their own against a weak Tiger offensive line and thin running back corps.

But just when Penn State extended its lead to 13, old fashioned Paterno-Ball took over. It was way too soon against a way too talented team. Runs on first down, obvious passing situations on third and long. I nearly wanted to puke when the LSU offense woke up just as Penn State was winding itself into its conservative shell. We know what happened next.

I guess it was a good thing that LSU was allowed to come back and take a fourth-quarter lead. If Penn State wasn't forced to stage that comeback, would Clark's legacy ever have been vindicated with a legendary final drive? Probably not. I'll admit that I wanted a great, tough game; but Christ, that was a bit much.

Going into the 2010 preseason (holy crap, it's already preseason!), Penn State is in great shape, even with the loss of Navorro Bowman early to the NFL. Depending on whether or not any other juniors leave (Evan Royster), this team has a very strong core returning for next season. There's every reason to look forward to 2010. Of course, predicting anything in college football is about as simple as a hand of Texas Hold'em against Johnny Chan.

Final Stats - GoPSUsports.com

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Big Ten Bowl Review: Outback, Capital One, Rose

Say what you want about how ugly some of the games were (Capital One, Outback), but there's no denying that with Ohio State's dominating Rose Bowl victory, the once-maligned conference played its collective hearts out this bowl season. New Year's Day was the highlight; let's take a look at what "they" are saying.

Outback Bowl: Auburn 38, Northwestern 35 (OT)

• This loss must have been particularly tough on NU alum Adam Rittenberg, who points out in his typical level-headedness that the Cats had plenty of chances to win the game prior to the final fake field goal.

• I hate linking to just a wire story, but you gotta love the CBSSports.com fan comments on any of the Big Ten-SEC game stories. Here we'll start with the Outback recap.

Capital One Bowl: Penn State 19, Louisiana State 17

• Penn State did it the usual way, with defense and ball control, writes Rittenberg.

• Evan Royster spoke with SportingNews.com's Brian McLaughlin about the field conditions, among other things.

• For more really funny SEC fan comments, let's see some of them for CBS's Capital One recap.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State 26, Oregon 17

• Over at TWWL, Ivan Maisel and Adam Rittenberg offer thoughts on Ohio State's victory.

• The Big Ten turned out to be New Year's Day's big winner, according to Matt Hayes at SportingNews.com.

• SI.com's Stewart Mandel also throws some praise the Buckeyes' way.

I know this was a crappy post. My apologies. But I have some big news coming your way this week that I just know will make up for it.

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Ok SEC fans, let's hear it

After nearly a month of constant oral diarrhea spewing from SEC fans' mouths about how Penn State had no chance against LSU, my inbox is now open.

So, LSU fans, your apologies should be emailed to:

ZombieNationPSU[at]gmail[dot]com

Be aware, however, that your emails are open for publishing on this web site. So if you don't want your words put out there for everyone to read, don't send it.

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Captial One Bowl Preview: No. 13 Penn State vs No. 12 Louisiana State

Kickoff/TV: Friday, January 1, 2010; 1 p.m. ET/ABC (Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge and Erin Andrews)
Weather Forecast: Scattered showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads, 1-0.

Host: Louisiana State Tigers
Record: 9-3 (5-3, SEC)
Last Game: Beat Arkansas, 33-30(OT)
Injuries: RB Charles Scott (clavicle) - out for season; RB Keiland Williams (ankle) - out for season; RB Richard Murphy (knee) - out for season; WR RJ Jackson (foot) - out; DT Akiem Hicks (undisclosed) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Trindon Holliday, WR Brandon LaFell; (defense) LB Kelvin Sheppard, CB Patrick Peterson, DT Drake Nevis
Head Coach: Les Miles, 5th season at LSU, 51-14; 9th season overall, 79-35; 5-2 bowl record.
Season Statistics:
Offense - 129.6 rush/180.1 pass/25.5 points per game
Defense - 134.2 rush/192.4 pass/16.0 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)/(0.58) per game

Louisiana State, on paper -- For a team that has been out gained by 16 yards per game this season, the Tigers are quite fortunate to have reached nine wins. Louisiana State has lived off of its fantastic turnover margin (+7), and ability to start offensive drives with short fields, courtesy of probably the best return game in the nation (18.6 yds per punt return). That stat will be sure to strike fear into Penn State, particularly since speedster Trindon Holliday isn't the only one responsible for LSU's punt return success; Holliday averages 17.7 yards on 18 returns and one touchdown, while Chad Jones also added a score to his 21.5 yards per return on six attempts. But that's about as explosive as this LSU team has been in 2009.

Defensively, the Tigers have been stout, but not nearly as transmittable as in recent seasons. In the five seasons previous to 2009, LSU ranked 17th, 12th, 14th, 6th, and 7th in rush defense; the Tigers rank 44th coming into this game. LSU has given up more than 23 points on five different occasions this year, including 26 to Mississippi State and 30 in overtime to Arkansas in the season finale. The Tigers have plenty of talent on this side of the ball, but are definitely pregnable.

Going from decent to just plain mediocre, the LSU offense struggled in 2009 to just break 300 yards per game. Injuries were a huge factor in the lack of production, as the Tigers lost their top two running backs before the end of the season. With a lack of a run game, and an already shaky offensive line (Jordan Jefferson has been sacked 24 times), opposing defenses have been able to tee off on the Tigers' passing game.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Beat Michigan State, 42-14
Injuries: RB Brandon Beachum (ACL) - out for season; FB Josh Matzkin (foot) - out; DE Pete Massaro (knee) - out for season; LB Michael Mauti (knee) - out for season; DT Brandon Ware (n/a) - out
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster, WR Derek Moye; (defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman, LB Sean Lee
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 393-129-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 173.6 rush/238.9 pass/29.7 points per game
Defense - 93.9 rush/183.2 pass/11.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)/(0.25) per game

Penn State, on paper -- The Lions are a good team, but most definitely not a great one. Penn State beat the teams it should have. In another fantastic job done by defensive coordinator Tom Bradley, the defense has posted its best statistical season in years, even with the loss of three defensive ends (one All-American) and four senior starters in the secondary from last season. The linebackers have been banged up this year, as Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman didn't play a full game together until mid-way through the season. Had both been healthy all year, one or both would have been given All-America recognition. Even in losses to Iowa and Ohio State, the Penn State defense held its own, even in the face of short fields and a sometimes anemic Lions offense.

On that offensive side of the ball, Penn State had some fantastic games this season (Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State), but also some putrid outings (Iowa, Ohio State). Against good defensive fronts, the Nittany Lions had trouble containing opponents' pass and run blitzes. That left Daryll Clark with little time to throw, and Evan Royster even less room to run. Much of the offensive woes have been centered around the constantly changing offensive line, which saw three different players at right tackle, and two different at left guard over the course of 2009. Yet, some bright spots have emerged for Penn State, specifically in the wide receivers and tight ends. Derek Moye has become a go-to guy on the outside, while Andrew Quarless finally played like the tight end everyone was hoping for the previous three seasons. Penn State will be looking to give Clark more than two seconds to throw.

Of course, none of that matters if the special teams break down, as they did in dramatic fashion against Iowa and Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were able to score on a blocked punt, and kept Penn State pinned deep in its own territory all game long, leading to a momentum-swinging safety. The Buckeyes tore apart Penn State's coverage teams, virtually winning the game solely on field position. The Nittany Lions should not be relied upon to win any game this season on field position.

On the field -- Penn State and LSU match up very well on both sides of the ball, with the slight edge to Penn State's defense over the Tigers' offense. I could totally see the Lions' front seven harass Jefferson into several mistakes, while Clark and the PSU offense should be able to move the ball well enough to score some points in this one. But if there's one glaring weakness in this year's Penn State team, it's the special teams and return coverage. How does a team like LSU win nine games while being out gained by 16 yards per game? Field position. That matchup scares the crap out of me. However...

The turf could be even scarier for both teams. Bad weather, combined with several football games in the Citrus Bowl this week alone, has left the field in horrid, if not dangerous condition. For a team like LSU, which relies solely on a speed player like Holliday, a chippy field could spell doom. One slip could ruin what should have been a big punt return, which could ruin LSU's chances for victory. Penn State doesn't rely on one specific facet of the game to win. With a healthy stable of running backs, and a defense that might be better than the Tigers' unit, the Lions should have enough in the tank to sneak out of Orlando with a much-needed Big Ten win over the SEC.

Prediction: No. 13 Penn State, 24 - No. 12 LSU, 20

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Sloppy field could mean sloppy bowl for PSU

Don't get all giddy. This could hurt Penn State just as much as LSU:

Conditions were so bad for the Miami-Wisconsin game Tuesday night players were replacing sod before snaps. Hurricanes running back Graig Cooper also injured his right knee without being touched. - AP

Remember last season at Purdue, when Penn State running backs were slipping and sliding all over the field, costing the Lions some points? Yeah, this could be worse, in a much more important game.

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Penn State over LSU, easily?

Wins and losses go only so far when trying to pick apart a bowl matchup. Penn State (10-2) has one more win than LSU (9-3), but far too many in the main stream media have gone with the Tigers to beat the Lions. Why? Well, I think we know: OMG-ESS-EE-SEE-SPEED! I will tell you one thing the pundits are not using to reach their Capital One Bowl predictions: facts.

I try not to shill for anyone, but it's tough to argue against Phil Steele's ability to predict college football seasons. So, why would predicting the bowl season be any different? It's not, really. You see, Steele uses facts and statistics to predict football games; not some empty public perception of a league (SEC) so dominant that not a single team could ever beat it. Sorry, but just because you call the SEC "fast" does not make its individual teams automatically better than the opposition.

Steele published one of the most interesting blog posts I've seen from any sane analyst this bowl season. This year’s top 10 differences in net yard rankings between bowl participants.

Why should Penn State fans care? Because the Lions are tied for first (w/Texas Tech-Michigan State) in Net Yard Ranking Difference (NYRD); the Lions are 43 spots ahead of LSU -- Penn State is No. 7 in NYRD nationally (+89.3 ypg), while LSU is No. 50 nationally (-45.3 ypg).

That's right, folks. The Tigers come into the Capital One Bowl having been outgained by their opponents by almost 50 yards per game.

The net yards difference between Penn State and LSU is 134.7 yards per game, which is the fourth-best (in favor of Penn St) going into the bowl season.

As Steele broke it down in normally-concise fashion, his stats showed that of the top five 2008-09 bowl teams with the biggest net yard differences (NYD), four of them won their bowl games; one of them included USC's 208.3 NYD over Penn State going into last season's Rose Bowl. So Lions fans have first-hand knowledge of what can happen when this stat is in your team's favor... or not.

Just to name a few teams that have a better NYRD than LSU: Oregon State, Arizona, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, South Carolina, Northwestern, Stanford, USC, Georgia, and Auburn. Including those SEC teams I just mentioned, a total of eight SEC teams have a better NYRD than the Tigers going into the bowl season.

To wrap this all up, I'd just like to remind pundits who seem to think LSU is a lock to win this game, that you are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.¹

**Just a quick update: Phil Steele picks Penn State by five.

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Penn State to the Capital One Bowl

The Patriot News broke the rumor/story earlier today, but now it's official. Penn State will face LSU in the Captial One Bowl on January 1 in Orlando. Stay tuned for more on the Nittany Lions' 23rd January bowl game under Joe Paterno.

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