Showing posts with label Bowl Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bowl Predictions. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Big Ten Pick'em 2009: Bowl Special


At long last, we get some bowl games that matter. I'm sort of going for broke with this pick'em, but a dash of homerism is always expected with blogs.

(FYI: Each team name links to its respective official football site)

Champs Sports Bowl: No. 25 Wisconsin vs No. 15 Miami, Fla. - The ZN pick: Wisconsin

Alamo Bowl: Michigan State vs Texas Tech - The ZN pick: Texas Tech

Orange Bowl: No. 10 Iowa vs No. 9 Georgia Tech - The ZN pick: Iowa

Outback Bowl: Northwestern vs Auburn - The ZN pick: Northwestern

Insight Bowl: Minnesota vs Iowa State - The ZN pick: Minnesota

Capital One Bowl: No. 13 Penn State vs No. 12 Louisiana State - The ZN pick: Penn State

Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs No. 7 Oregon - The ZN pick: Ohio State

☆☆☆☆


Standings, compiled by Gopher Nation:

(doesn't really matter at this point)

More below the fold...

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Penn State over LSU, easily?


Wins and losses go only so far when trying to pick apart a bowl matchup. Penn State (10-2) has one more win than LSU (9-3), but far too many in the main stream media have gone with the Tigers to beat the Lions. Why? Well, I think we know: OMG-ESS-EE-SEE-SPEED! I will tell you one thing the pundits are not using to reach their Capital One Bowl predictions: facts.

I try not to shill for anyone, but it's tough to argue against Phil Steele's ability to predict college football seasons. So, why would predicting the bowl season be any different? It's not, really. You see, Steele uses facts and statistics to predict football games; not some empty public perception of a league (SEC) so dominant that not a single team could ever beat it. Sorry, but just because you call the SEC "fast" does not make its individual teams automatically better than the opposition.

Steele published one of the most interesting blog posts I've seen from any sane analyst this bowl season. This year’s top 10 differences in net yard rankings between bowl participants.

Why should Penn State fans care? Because the Lions are tied for first (w/Texas Tech-Michigan State) in Net Yard Ranking Difference (NYRD); the Lions are 43 spots ahead of LSU -- Penn State is No. 7 in NYRD nationally (+89.3 ypg), while LSU is No. 50 nationally (-45.3 ypg).

That's right, folks. The Tigers come into the Capital One Bowl having been outgained by their opponents by almost 50 yards per game.

The net yards difference between Penn State and LSU is 134.7 yards per game, which is the fourth-best (in favor of Penn St) going into the bowl season.

As Steele broke it down in normally-concise fashion, his stats showed that of the top five 2008-09 bowl teams with the biggest net yard differences (NYD), four of them won their bowl games; one of them included USC's 208.3 NYD over Penn State going into last season's Rose Bowl. So Lions fans have first-hand knowledge of what can happen when this stat is in your team's favor... or not.

Just to name a few teams that have a better NYRD than LSU: Oregon State, Arizona, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, South Carolina, Northwestern, Stanford, USC, Georgia, and Auburn. Including those SEC teams I just mentioned, a total of eight SEC teams have a better NYRD than the Tigers going into the bowl season.

To wrap this all up, I'd just like to remind pundits who seem to think LSU is a lock to win this game, that you are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.¹

**Just a quick update: Phil Steele picks Penn State by five.

More below the fold...

Monday, December 14, 2009

College Football 2009-10 Bowl Preview

Let's begin our quick look into each bowl game this season. There are plenty of great matchups this season, but some real duds, too. I'll give the basics for each bowl game; who's in it, when, why I (and you) should take the time to watch, and which team gets the early nod.

New Mexico Bowl 
Dec. 19 / 4:30 p.m.

Fresno State (8-4, 6-2 WAC) vs. Wyoming (6-6, 4-4 MWC)

Why I should watch: This game would normally get my lowest rating, but since Fresno played two Big Ten teams (Wisconsin, Illinois), the Bulldogs offer some spark of interest. Fresno lost four games -- at Wisconsin, Boise State, at Cincinnati, and at Nevada. But those four opponents combined for a ridiculous 42-7 record, including Cincy and Boise going unbeaten. Wyoming, meanwhile, is just awful. The Cowboys were held to 10 points or less on six different occasions this season, including THREE shutout losses. If this game were on a weekday, it would be virtually unwatchable; but it gets a chance, being on a Saturday.
Give'em: FSU (-12½)
On paper, this game gets a... 1 out of 5

St.Petersburg Bowl 
Dec. 19 / 8 p.m.

Central Florida (8-4, 6-2 C-USA) vs. Rutgers (8-4, 3-4 Big East)

Why I should watch: I'm a North Jersey native, so this game will illicit much more interest for me than the average viewer. Having seen Rutgers play in person this year, I can say the RU has the ability to play with any team. The Scarlet Knights pushed Pitt and West Virginia; but they also lost to Syracuse in a bad road loss. UCF is about as mid-majory as a team can get. The Knights were blown away by the BCS teams they faced, and beat most of the other teams on their slate. Hey, if anything else, this bowl pits the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers against the Knights of Central Florida.
Give'em: RU (-2½)
On paper, this game gets a... 1 out of 5 for normal people; 2 out of 5 for me.

New Orleans Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 8:30 p.m.

Southern Mississippi (7-5, 5-3 C-USA) vs. Middle Tennessee State (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt)

Why I should watch: Southern Miss was supposed to be one of those hot picks to crash the BCS this season; but a third-place C-USA East finish doesn't exactly turn heads towards your program. Four of the Eagles' five losses came by seven points or less, including at Kansas, at Louisville, at Houston and at East Carolina. Middle Tennessee State plays in the brutal Sun Belt Conference (sarcasm, folks), but even with a decent non-conference schedule, finished with nine wins.
Give'em: USM (-3½)
On paper, this game gets a... 1 out of 5

Maaco Bowl 
Dec. 22 / 8 p.m.

No. 18 Oregon State (8-4, 6-3 Pac 10) vs. No. 14 Brigham Young U. (10-2, 7-1 MWC)

Why I should watch: For such an early bowl date, this game offers two top-20 teams. BYU wasn't the monster it was thought to be, particularly after its blowout loss to Florida State way back in September. But the Cougars still won 10 games, and beat No. 23 Utah. Oregon State is in a similar boat, as one more win would have propelled the Beavers to the Pac 10 title and Rose Bowl bid. Oregon State played an arguably tougher schedule, but I like this game a lot, and will surely tune in.
Give'em: OSU (-2½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Poinsettia Bowl 
Dec. 23 / 8 p.m.

No. 23 Utah (9-3, 6-2 MWC) vs. California (8-4, 5-4 Pac 10)

Why I should watch: Figure this to be the lite-version of the OSU-BYU game; these are the two losers of both regular season meetings. Had Cal not imploded at Washington on the final weekend (L 42-10), I'd say this game would have gotten a much higher rating. Utah is just as solid as usual, coming within an overtime brain fart of finishing second in the MWC behind TCU. "Pac 10 vs. Mountain West" is easily the best rivalry between two conferences, even if it's relatively young.
Give'em: Cal (-3)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Hawaii Bowl 
Dec. 24 / 8:00 p.m.

Nevada (8-4, 7-1 WAC) vs. Southern Methodist U. (7-5, 6-2 C-USA)

Why I should watch: This will be SMU's first bowl game in 25 years. That's about it for this one. Nevada has one of the best offenses in college football, but has that glaring 35-0 shutout at Notre Dame still hanging on its resume. SMU won four of five down the stretch to become bowl eligible, but against weak opponents. The UN offense rolling over the SMU defense isn't going to be pretty.
Give'em: UN (-15)
On paper, this game gets a... 1 out of 5

Little Caesars Bowl 
Dec. 26 / 1:00 p.m.

Ohio (9-4, 7-2 MAC) vs. Marshall (6-6, 4-4 C-USA)

Why I should watch: This is a matchup of old MAC foes; unfortunately, that's all it is. The Bobcats gave Central Michigan its toughest game of the season in the MAC Championship, finishing with a fine nine-win total for the year. Marshall lost a bad game at UTEP to finish out the regular season, but still made it into a bowl with a .500 record. If I get out of bed before this game is over, I'll flip in on while I microwave some leftovers.
Give'em: OU (-2½)
On paper, this game gets a... 1 out of 5

Meineke Car Care Bowl 
Dec. 26 / 4:30 p.m.

No. 17 Pittsburgh (9-3, 5-2 Big East) vs. North Carolina (8-4, 4-4 ACC)

Why I should watch: We'll get our first all-BCS conference bowl game in this one. Pitt came so close to winning the Big East over Cincinnati, but just couldn't hold on in a one-point loss. The Panthers boast probably a future Heisman winner, running back Dion Lewis. I can assure you, he's even more impressive, if possible, in person (the Rutgers game I went to was vs. Pitt). North Carolina lost three games it had no business blowing -- Virginia, Florida State and at NC State. Had the Tar Heels played up to their potential in those games, UNC would be sitting at 11-1, and surely not playing in this bowl game. Pitt's Lewis is just too good to get bottled up by a not-always-great UNC defense.
Give'em: Pitt (-3)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Emerald Bowl 
Dec. 26 / 8 p.m.

Boston College (8-4, 5-3 ACC) vs. Southern California (8-4, 5-4 Pacific 10)

Why I should watch: It just feels so wrong (but sooo good) to see USC fall this far in just one season. The Trojans were embarrassed more often this year than the previous eight combined. If USC loses this game, it will have gone 2-4 in its final six games of the season. Boston College will look to continue USC's trend of losing to sub-par teams this season. I'm not sure it will happen, as Pete Carroll is pissed off, as are his players. Then again, this is what we've been saying about USC all season long: "They're just too good to lose again!"
Give'em: USC (-9)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Music City Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 8:30 p.m.

Kentucky (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs. Clemson (8-5, 6-3 Atlantic Coast)

Why I should watch: The Tigers had yet another shoulda-woulda-coulda season (although, better than anyone expected), while the Wildcats landed fourth in an SEC East division that ate itself alive this season. Kentucky has been money in bowl games under Rich Brooks (3-0); Clemson not so much (0 wins in last three). These two teams faced off three years ago, in this same bowl game; Kentucky won 28-20. The Tigers have a great shot to finally emerge from its post-season funk.
Give'em: CU (-7)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Independence Bowl 
Dec. 28 / 5 p.m.

Texas A&M (6-6, 3-5 Big 12) vs. Georgia (7-5, 4-4 SEC)

Why I should watch: As Lee Corso would say, Texas A&M "blew its wad" in the season finale against Texas. The Aggies pushed the Longhorns to the brink, but came up short on Kyle Field. The game felt like one big last-ditch effort to make the season into a success; it didn't work. Georgia, meanwhile, ended the season as high as a 6-5 team could, downing rival and seventh-ranked Georgia Tech. This bowl features two teams barreling in opposite directions, but could offer more than a few surprises.
Give'em: UGA (-7)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Eagle Bank Bowl 
Dec. 29 / 4:30 p.m.

Temple (9-3, 7-1 MAC) vs. UCLA (6-6, 3-6 Pac 10)

Why I should watch: Could Temple, Temple, win 10 games this year? Well, the Owls have a shot against UCLA in DC. It was one of the more entertaining stories in football this season, and could have been even better had the Owls made it to the MAC title game. Temple is going to its first bowl in 30 years. UCLA isn't so happy. The Bruins used to be a force in the Pac 10, but are now just fortunate to reach bowl games. Coach Rick Neuheisel is moving UCLA in the right direction, and a bowl win here would continue that.
Give'em: UCLA (-4)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Champs Sports Bowl 
Dec. 29 / 8 p.m.

No. 15 Miami(FL) (9-3, 5-3 ACC) vs. No. 25 Wisconsin (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten)

Why I should watch: Neither team has been overtly impressive this season, but the Canes and Badgers will vie for the coveted 10th win in this one. The pure talent and speed is one Miami's side, but Wisconsin is probably the better overall team. The Badgers lost three games to opponents (two going to BCS bowls) that combined for a 28-8 record. Miami's three came to teams that went 25-12 overall. Watch for Wisconsin running back John Clay and Miami quarterback Jacory Harris; as they go, the winner should follow.
Give'em: The U (-3)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Humanitarian Bowl 
Dec. 30 / 4:30 p.m.

Bowling Green (7-5, 6-2 MAC) vs. Idaho (7-5, 4-4 WAC)

Why I should watch: Hmm... give me a minute. Well, Idaho was a nice story this season, finally reaching a bowl game. At one point, the Vandals were sitting at 7-2, but lost three straight to end the season. They also have an All-American at guard. Think of Bowling Green as the anti-Idaho, schedule-wise at least. The Falcons started 1-4, but finished 6-1. If you have the TV on during dinner, at least there's some sort of football to watch.
Give'em: BGSU (-1½)
On paper, this game gets a... 1 out of 5

Holiday Bowl 
Dec. 30 / 8 p.m.

No. 20 Arizona (8-4, 6-3 Pac 10) vs. No. 22 Nebraska (9-4, 6-3 Big 12)

Why I should watch: The Holiday Bowl is usually the best December bowl game every year; 2009 shouldn't disappoint. The Cornhuskers almost rocked the college football world, losing by the slimmest margins to Texas in the Big XII title game. Interestingly enough, NU's Heisman finalist single-handedly prevented another finalist (Colt McCoy) from winning. Three of Nebraska's four losses came by a combined four points. Arizona was one of the last Pac 10 title contenders standing as Thanksgiving approached. But the Wildcats' luck ran out. Zona played one of the tougher schedules in the nation, even with I-AA opponent N. Arizona on there. Nebraska and Arizona met in the 1998 Holiday Bowl, a Cats victory.
Give'em: Zona (-1½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Armed Forces Bowl 
Dec. 31 / 12 p.m.

Houston (10-3, 6-3 C-USA) vs. Air Force (7-5, 5-3 MWC)

Why I should watch: Houston had a bad case of bipolarity this season. The Cougars beat all the teams a mid-major shouldn't (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech), but then lost to teams a potential BCS buster shouldn't (UTEP, UCF), and then lost the C-USA title game to ECU. Case Keenum is a freak at quarterback, leading the nation in total offense per game. He's thrown for more than 500 yards FOUR TIMES this season, with 43 touchdowns and nine picks. For the Air Force Academy, the best thing would be to use its potent rushing game to keep the ball away from the Cougar offense, while wearing down the defense. If you're home on New Years Eve day, flip this on while preparing the hors d'oeuvres.
Give'em: UH (-4½)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Sun Bowl 
Dec. 31 / 2 p.m.

Oklahoma (7-5, 5-3 Big 12) vs. No. 21 Stanford (8-4, 6-3 Pac 10)

Why I should watch: Should Toby Gerhart have won the Heisman Trophy? We'll find out if he can put up more big numbers against a Sooner defense that is coming off a 27-0 demolition of Oklahoma State's previously-potent offense. Oklahoma lost Heisman winner Sam Bradford in the first game, then again in his first game back mid-season. Granted, it's tough to play with a guy like that missing, but I think the Sooners greatly underachieved in 2009. Stanford is another story. The Cardinal became the story of college football, particularly after coach Jim Harbaugh laid the wood on USC in the LA Coliseum. Stanford also handed Oregon its only Pac 10 loss.
Give'em: OU (-8)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Texas Bowl 
Dec. 31 / 3:30 p.m.

Navy (9-4) vs. Missouri (8-4, 4-4 Big 12)

Why I should watch: Service academies always warrant some interest. Both these teams are pretty good, with Missouri at least coming out of a BCS conference. But they are also polar opposites on the offensive side of the ball. Navy lives on the ground, while the Tigers fly through the air. Aside from an inexplicable loss at Hawaii, the Middies lost to three teams that combined to go 29-7. Missouri is in a similar boat, dropping one to Baylor, but the other three losses coming at the hands of Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas.
Give'em: Mizzou (-4)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Insight Bowl 
Dec. 31 / 6 p.m.

Minnesota (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten) vs. Iowa State (6-6, 3-5 Big 12)

Why I should watch: Call this the "Battle for a Winning Record" bowl. If your TV provider offers the NFL Network, or you got it with your sports package, then go ahead and flip this one on for good background. It's definitely better than those stupid countdown to New Years shows on the major networks. Minnesota's offense went south with the loss of receiver Eric Decker, while first-year head coach Paul Rhodes led the Cyclones to their first bowl bid since 2005.
Give'em: Minny (-2½)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Chick-fil-A Bowl 
Dec. 31 / 7:30 p.m.

No. 11 Virginia Tech (9-3, 6-2 ACC) vs. Tennessee (7-5, 4-4 SEC)

Why I should watch: The Hokies have a shot to win 10 games for the ninth time in 11 years. The Vols, though, are just happy to be back in the bowl picture. Tennessee is a portrait of a young team (relatively) learning to win under a new coach, Lane Kiffin, as the Vols pushed some of the best teams on the schedule (Bama, Florida), but lost to some pretty average ones (UCLA, Auburn) as well. On the other side is Virginia Tech, an example of consistent winning for two decades under Frank Beamer. This is the most interesting matchups of opposite-mannered coaches this bowl season.
Give'em: VT (-4½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Chick-fil-A Bowl 
Dec. 31 / 7:30 p.m.

No. 11 Virginia Tech (9-3, 6-2 ACC) vs. Tennessee (7-5, 4-4 SEC)

Why I should watch: The Hokies have a shot to win 10 games for the ninth time in 11 years. The Vols, though, are just happy to be back in the bowl picture. Tennessee is a portrait of a young team (relatively) learning to win under a new coach, Lane Kiffin, as the Vols pushed some of the best teams on the schedule (Bama, Florida), but lost to some pretty average ones (UCLA, Auburn) as well. On the other side is Virginia Tech, an example of consistent winning for two decades under Frank Beamer. This is the most interesting matchups of opposite-mannered coaches this bowl season.
Give'em: VT (-4½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

NEW YEARS DAY

Outback Bowl 
Jan. 1 / 11 a.m.

Northwestern (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) vs. Auburn (7-5, 3-5 SEC)

Why I should watch: The Wildcats haven't been to a New Years Day bowl game since 1996 ('97 Citrus Bowl), so getting the nod over Wisconsin in this bowl made more than a few Northwesterners smirk with joy. Northwestern has become a real, live contender under Pat Fitzgerald. Auburn is a lot like Texas A&M, in that both teams played so hard in season finale losses against their arch rivals, it could be tough to recover for the bowl game. The Wildcats have beaten better teams than Auburn this year, so the Tigers can't miss a beat in this one.
Give'em: AU (-7½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Capital One Bowl 
Jan. 1 / 1 p.m.

Penn State (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten) vs. Louisiana State (9-3, 5-3 SEC)

Why I should watch: Along with the Outback Bowl that starts an hour earlier, the Capital One Bowl will be one of the most important bowl games for the Big Ten conference's national reputation. LSU is one of three teams this decade to win multiple BCS national championships. The Tigers have had an up and down season, losing to Florida and Bama, but also dropping a late game to Ole Miss, and needing overtime to beat Arkansas in the finale. Under coach Les Miles, LSU has never lost a bowl game. Penn State comes into its fourth January bowl game in five seasons, a resurgent program that had fallen of the cliff earlier this decade. Joe Paterno holds the all-time record for bowl wins.
Give'em: PSU (-2½)
On paper, this game gets a... 4 out of 5 for normal people; 5 out of 5 for me

Gator Bowl 
Jan. 1 / 1 p.m.

No. 16 West Virginia (9-3, 5-2 Big East) vs. Florida State (6-6, 4-4 ACC)

Why I should watch: This will be Bobby Bowden's final game as head coach of the Florida State Seminoles. Only two other coaching retirements will have ever meant so much to the game -- Bear Bryant and, eventually, Joe Paterno. The Noles struggled early to a 2-4 start, but reached .500 in the end to send Bowden out on a bowl trip. For West Virginia, it gets even more interesting, as Bowden was the Mountaineers' head coach prior to his arrival in Tallahassee. In a way, this is the perfect matchup to end Bowden's career.
Give'em: WVU (-2½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5; 4 out of 5 for the Bowden factor

Rose Bowl 
Jan. 1 / 4:30 p.m.

No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 7 Oregon (10-2, 8-1 Pac 10)

Why I should watch: Can the Big Ten finally win a Rose Bowl? While USC is not the Pac 10 representative this year, it might not change the fortune of the nation's oldest conference. Oregon has been certainly the best team in the Pac 10 this season, but it shouldn't be forgotten that the Ducks looked terrible in losses to Boise State and -- most people forget -- Stanford. Ohio State looks like a worse version of Oregon. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor has been given too much credit for the Buckeyes' wins, but also too much blame when OSU loses. Although Ohio State has played well down the stretch, Oregon is the best team the Buckeyes will face this season.
Give'em: UO (-3½)
On paper, this game gets a... 4 out of 5

Sugar Bowl 
Jan. 1 / 8 p.m.

No. 5 Florida (12-1, 8-1 SEC) vs. No. 3 Cincinnati (12-0, 7-0 Big East)

Why I should watch: I wonder just how badly the Alabama loss hurt Florida's mojo. If Tim Tebow's reaction post-SEC Championship loss is any indicator, it hurt very badly. There was no triumphant speech like after the Ole Miss loss last year; no "one play made the difference" excuse. This is a battered team right now, ready for plucking; and Cincinnati is just the team to do it. Will the Bearcats win? Probably not. This game could get ugly if Florida plays the way it was supposed to all season long. But the line does seem a little large for my liking. This will be the first 2009-10 bowl game featuring an undefeated team.
Give'em: UF (-10½)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

International Bowl 
Jan. 2 / 12 p.m.

South Florida (7-5, 3-4 Big East) vs. Northern Illinois (7-5, 3-4 Big East)

Why I should watch: The stars were aligning for the Bulls coming into 2009. Their star senior quarterback, Matt Grothe, was set to lead a talent-rich team to a conference title, maybe more. But then Grothe went down early, his shoes too big to fill. After starting 5-0, USF struggled down the stretch. This is still a dangerous team, but one that could have had so much more. Northern Illinois played a tougher-than-expected schedule this year, but reached its fourth bowl in six seasons. This game would have been much more interesting if Grothe were playing.
Give'em: USF (-6½)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Cotton Bowl 
Jan. 2 / 2 p.m.

No. 19 Oklahoma State (9-3, 6-2 Big 12) vs. Mississippi (8-4, 4-4 SEC)

Why I should watch: Call this the "Underachievement Classic," as both these teams were shooting for the top, only to fall flat before anyone could even spell B-C-S. The Pokes were riding high after beating Georgia, even making the cover of Sports Illustrated; but immediately fell to Houston at home, then lost out on a BCS bid after getting embarrassed by Oklahoma in the finale. Ole Miss was hearing talk of being a darkhorse for the national title; but that ended in only week three at South Carolina. The Rebels finished up their disappointing season with a loss in the Egg Bowl. Still, this game offers plenty of talent on two good teams.
Give'em: Miss (-3)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Papajohns.com Bowl 
Jan. 2 / 2 p.m.

South Carolina (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs. Connecticut (7-5, 3-4 Big East)

Why I should watch: Two great coaches go up against each other, in one of the last retro-sounding "dot-com" bowls. UConn's five losses this season were by a combined 15 points, with many being decided in the final minutes. Coach Randy Edsall and the Huskies were forced to battle through the loss of a teammate when Jasper Howard was shot and killed mid-season. UConn is a greatly underrated squad. South Carolina is still waiting for Steve Spurrier's team to finish a season strong, as the Gamecocks dropped four of six to finish the season, after starting 5-1.
Give'em: USC (-4½)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Liberty Bowl 
Jan. 2 / 5:30 p.m.

Arkansas (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs. East Carolina (9-4, 8-1 C-USA)

Why I should watch: Who knows where Bobby Petrino might coach this time next year? While he seems to have finally found his place, it's been a tough transition for Arkansas from the run offense of Houston Nutt to the pass offense of Petrino. Still, with big-arm quarterback (and former Michigan Wolverine) Ryan Mallett, the Razorbacks are always good for a show. The Pirates of East Carolina aren't exactly pushovers, though. ECU is one year removed from shocking the college football world with back-to-back upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates also just beat a very good Houston team in the C-USA title game.
Give'em: Ark (-7½)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

Alamo Bowl 
Jan. 2 / 9 p.m.

Michigan State (6-6, 4-4 Big Ten) vs. Texas Tech (8-4, 5-3 Big 12)

Why I should watch: This is one line I'm not sure is big enough for the Red Raiders. Michigan State's pass defense has been atrocious (108th nationally), and we all know about Texas Tech's passing offense (2nd nationally). I really like what Mark D'Antonio is doing in East Lansing, but this bowl game might have been put out of reach with the suspension of key players following a recent fight. The only reason I'm rating this game so high is because it's a Big Ten game, and I try to watch all of each of them.
Give'em: TT (-8)
On paper, this game gets a... 3 out of 5

Fiesta Bowl 
Jan. 4 / 8 p.m.

No. 6 Boise State (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs. No. 4 Texas Christian U.

Why I should watch: It's not often you can watch two undefeated teams in a bowl game that's not for the national title. That's just what we get with this year's Fiesta Bowl. As one writer put it, the Fiesta crew "fell on the sword" for the rest of the BCS; meaning the Fiesta took the plunge and risked poor ratings to match up these two teams. I don't care how you put it, these are two great teams, and should provide a great game.
Give'em: TCU (-7)
On paper, this game gets a... 4 out of 5

Orange Bowl 
Jan. 5 / 8 p.m.

No. 10 Iowa (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten) vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech (11-2, 8-1 ACC)

Why I should watch: Big Ten teams don't face the triple option all that often. When it did, Navy scared the crap out of Ohio State. I'm actually very surprised the line is set so large for the Yellow Jackets. The Iowa defense has been stellar (11th nationally), while the Tech defense is only decent (54th nationally). Most will look at Iowa's November slate and figure this game is already over; but don't forget that Georgia Tech blew a big one to a very mediocre Georgia team in the season finale. This season's BCS bowl lineup is quite tolerable.
Give'em: GT (-4)
On paper, this game gets a... 4 out of 5

GMAC Bowl 
Jan. 6 / 7 p.m.

Central Michigan (11-2, 9-0 Mid American) vs. Troy (9-3, 8-0 Sun Belt)

Why I should watch: Playing this bowl on Jan. 6, I think, does it a great disservice, as no one is going to care about a low-level game this late into the bowl season. When the bowls first get going, fans are raring to watch anything, even the crappy bowl games. But the night before the national title game? Not so much. Central Michigan only lost to Arizona and Boston College, on its way to a MAC title. Troy is the perennial upstart that analysts like to peg as the team everyone should "watch out for." These are two in-conference undefeated champions.
Give'em: CMU (-3½)
On paper, this game gets a... 2 out of 5

BCS Championship 
Jan. 7 / 8 p.m.

No. 1 Alabama (13-0, 9-0 SEC) vs. No. 2 Texas (13-0, 9-0 Big 12)

Why I should watch: Fans can at least look forward to the BCS Championship Game featuring two undefeated teams this year. Whichever team comes out on top, it will feel like a breath of fresh air, particularly to those who remember the terrible two-loss 2007 "national champion" LSU. What's a bit odd here is that it's not just the media analysts that are falling into the what have you done for me lately trap. The line now is set at five to Texas. A bit steep, no? "Well," you say confidently, "Texas almost lost to Nebraska!" Really, then you will agree with me that Alabama should be equally ragged on for nearly losing at home to Tennessee, or needing a miracle comeback drive to beat Auburn... right? I'm not going to pick Texas to win this game, but that doesn't mean I'll be shocked if the Longhorns dispatch the Crimson Tide. Colt McCoy is a much better passer than Tim Tebow; Florida didn't have Jordan Shipley catching passes or returning kicks. But on the other side, Alabama has Terrence Cody, and a blueprint on how to use him against Texas -- the Big XII title game tape. Let's just hope it will be a game worth watching in the fourth quarter.
Give'em: Bama (-5)
On paper, this game gets a... 5 out of 5

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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Thursday Linkage is full of meaningless predictions


The main stream media is now rolling at full throttle, as we were blessed this week with their infinite wisdom in the form of predictions, power rankings and Heisman talk.

• ESPN has put together an "expert" panel to begin voting on the 2009 Heisman Trophy race. Naturally, the big three -- Tebow, Bradford and McCoy -- lead the way. But then there are the picks that you know are just made to piss people off, like Tennessee SS Eric Berry, USC Safety Taylor Mays, and TCU DE Jerry Hughes. I just wonder, if they're good enough to get votes now, where are those votes in December?

• Staying with the whole best-in-America theme, NBC Sports released its All-America teams for 2009. While Penn State didn't get any first-team nods, Evan Royster and Navorro Bowman were both named to the second team. Stefen Wisniewski and Jared Odrick landed on the third team. Not bad, especially considering Wiz has never started a game at center prior to this season.

• Preseason rankings are the lifeblood of college football in August; SI.com and NBC Sports are right there with the pack. Penn State comes in at a respectable No. 11 at NBC, and a bit disappointing No. 14 at SI.com.

• ESPN's Mark Schlabach and Bruce Feldman both like Penn State to return to the BCS circuit; Schlabach pegs the Lions for the Orange Bowl vs. Virginia Tech, while Feldman sends JoePa back to the Rose Bowl for a USC rematch.

• Adam Rittenberg says otherwise.

• Today is Penn State's media day, but if you didn't want to pay 10 bucks (!) to watch Joe Paterno's presser online today, you can see a replay of it later on the Big Ten Network, along with other Penn State goodies this evening.

Jay Paterno would rather have his players practicing than talking.

• The always entertaining BlogPoll is reving back up.

• Just a reminder, the Buckeye Battle Cry was kind enough to stop bashing Michigan for a few minutes, and answer a couple questions for this week's First Look '09. I'll have the post up later today, so be sure to check back for it!

• And lastly, my copy of Sports Illustrated just arrived. While I'm still not crazy about the positions they placed the players, it's nice to see Daryll Clark and Wiz on there.

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Thursday, January 1, 2009

Poll Results: PSU over USC

As promised, poll results. Surprisingly enough, most voters–even though they're mostly Penn State fans–voted in favor of a PSU win.

Be sure to check out our open thread below this post.

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Preview: The Rose Bowl, No. 8 Penn State at No. 5 Southern California

Kickoff: Thurs., Jan. 1. 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Weather Forecast: Sunny, Warm, Clear.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 11-1 (7-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Michigan St, 49-18
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QB Daryll Clark, C AQ Shipley; (defense) DE Aaron Maybin, LB Navorro Bowman, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 383-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 211.6 rush/240.6 pass/40.2 points per game
Defense - 95.9 rush/168 pass/12.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- The hype machine is in full force, and that's a good thing for Penn State. It is usually when the media tells these Nittany Lions that they have no chance to win, that they go right out there and prove everyone wrong. Ohio State 2005? No chance. Tennessee 2006? No chance. Ohio State 2008? No chance. All... wrong! But when it comes to on-the-field factors, Penn State hasn't had a passing attack like this since Kerry Collins was torching opponents with Bobby Engram and Kyle Brady. Only, this time, Daryll Clark has the three best (statistically, at least) wide receivers in Penn State history, and an offensive line just as good as the 1994 edition. Top all of that with Clark's mobility, and the Lions have all the tool necessary to hang around with, and even beat the best defense in college football. I've heard all week (and all month, too) that Clark is a liability because he hasn't led a fourth-quarter comeback drive. But I haven't exactly seen USC do that either, as most of their games are well in hand by the final stanza. Can Mark Sanchez lead a fourth-quarter comeback drive? He had a chance, at Oregon State, but blew it, just like Clark at Iowa. That's not to say Penn State is all passing, as Evan Royster has been hands-down the most underrated running back this season. No defense will tackle him on the first hit, and once he's in the open field, it's 30 yards and a cloud of dust.

Penn State has also been every bit as good on defense as the Trojans have this season. What most analysts aren't looking at, is the level of competition USC has faced. Any team with a defense like USC's or PSU's could shut out Washington and Washington State, two of the worst teams in the FBS. It's not like the Penn State defense is mediocre this season. The analysts would lead you to believe that the Nittany Lions are less than impressive on that side of the ball, when in fact the PSU defense is No. 5 in total defense, and No. 3 in points allowed. USC has also thrown 12 interceptions this year, 8 more than Penn State, and has lost the same number (9) of fumbles as the Lions. So don't let the "USC is great at forcing turnovers" mantra cloud the view of this USC team. They had no choice but to force turnovers, to make up for the many offensive miscues that no one likes to point out.

Host: Southern California Trojans
Record: 11-1 (8-1 Pac 10)
Last Game: Won vs UCLA, 28-7
Injuries: RB Stafon Johnson (knee - probable), WR Damian Williams (shoulder - doubtful), S Kevin Ellison (knee - doubtful), RB Allen Bradford (hip - out), TE Thomas Herring (ankle - out), FB Stanley Havili (academics - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Mark Sanchez, RB CJ Gable, RT Butch Lewis; (defense) LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, S Taylor Mays
Head Coach: Pete Carroll, 8th season at USC, 87-15 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 206 rush/247.1 pass/37.5 points per game
Defense - 83.2 rush/122.8 pass/7.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why USC will win -- Can any other team in America say they have the talent on defense USC will bring to bear against Penn State? But this defense isn't what you would expect. USC gives up a paltry 122 passing yards per game, but a surprising 83 yards rushing per game. That's because USC using their pass defense to stop the run. They know with guys like Rey Maualuga and Filli Moala, the opponents' run game won't pose so much of a threat, so USC can concentrate on attacking the quarterbacks and wide receivers. Throwing off routes has been a strong suit for USC, and forcing the other quarterback to throw early is a very bad idea when its against this defense. After all, if you don't get that ball out of there quick enough, you'll be on your bottom even quicker. USC loves to play a Tampa 2 and Man-Under defense, very conservative. Pete Carroll has that luxury because of the speed and skill his defenders have. That allows fewer risks that need to be taken on defense, like blitzing. Sure, USC will send the heat once in a while, but not as often as other teams do. USC will want to get Penn State into a dink-and-dunk kind of offensive game plan, and limit the big plays.

On offense, the days of Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and Dwayne Jarrett are gone, but the production is still outstanding. USC does not have a 1,000-yard back this season, but does have three players over 600 yards a piece–Joe McKnight (646), Stafon Johnson (642) and CJ Gable (602). Johnson has been hampered by a nagging injury, but should be able to play. That means USC will field (even if not all at the same time) 1,800 yards worth of rushing against Penn State. Mark Sanchez hasn't been asked to do a whole lot at quarterback, but he is more than capable to keep the offense humming. He was left without the 2007 starter Vidal Hazelton all this season (he transfered last month), but Patrick Turner and Ronald Johnson have filled in nicely. Leading the pack is Damien Williams, who has pulled in more than 700 receiving yards this year. But it will all come down to the USC offensive line, particularly the starting tackles, Butch Lewis and Charles Brown. They will be in charge of stopping the potent PSU pass rush, and Aaron Maybin. But it won't only be about keeping Sanchez upright. USC can push PSU back on its heels by using misdirection and screens to neutralize the defense, and with the talented USC backfield, the results could be huge gains.

What will happen -- Pete Carroll has created a great dynasty in Los Angeles, no doubt. But is he really deserving of such confidence over JOSEPH VINCENT PATERNO? USC has been great in bowls under Carroll, but so has Penn State under Paterno. If you compare the first eight seasons of each coach, Paterno has the better resume with two more undefeated seasons, and some of the best defenses of that time. The media loves to tell us "never underestimate Joe Paterno," but that's exactly what they're doing. The USC players looked bored and apathetic at the Rose Bowl media day earlier this week. I'm going out on a limb to say that I think this will negatively affect this team. USC usually blows the game when they're told they'll definitely win. That's what is happening.

***Disclaimer: By no means should the following prediction be taken as a promise. I have no clue what exactly will happen. I can only guess, and hope for the best. But if I could actually choose how this game should go, the following is what I would go with.***

Penn State will come out, lose the toss, and USC will want to put its vaunted defense on the field first. The Lions will be lucky to score on their first drive, but look for a nice first return from Chaz Powell (USC will kick away from Derrick Williams), giving Clark and the offense good field position. Penn State will go up by a field goal. The offenses on both sides will trade long, pounding drives, but Penn State will trail 13-10 at halftime.

In the second half, Tom Bradley will make some adjustments, while USC will keep playing like the national champion-calibur team it is. After two field goals, the Lions will be no further along than at the half, but a huge Derrick Williams return will spark the offense to some quick-hitting points, maybe even a touchdown. Penn State will shock USC by scoring the 10 points in a matter of minutes, forcing USC to make a risky throw or play call. Leading 20-16, Mark Rubin will make the play of the game, stepping in front of a Sanchez pass. Taking it all the way down to the one, Clark will go in on a QB-sneak. USC doesn't hesitate, marching right back down the field to score a touchdown, but misses the two-point conversion.

With Penn State leading 27-22, the Lions will try to run out the clock, but too much time is left. USC will have one last chance to score, but can't move down the field fast enough. With 0:02 left on the clock, Sanchez heaves a pass to the end zone, but Tony Davis is there to knock it down.

Stat Notes: USC will end up sacking Clark four times, but can't finish him off on a few key plays. Penn State will pick off Sanchez twice, once on a tipped pass at the line. USC will rush for at least 140 yards, but pass for only 170. Penn State will pass for 190, but only rush for 110. This game will come down to special teams, with USC ending up with horrible return averages, while Penn State will make several big plays for good field position.

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 27 - No. 5 USC 22

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Thursday, December 18, 2008

2008 Bowl Previews, Part 2

We'll finish up our quick look into each bowl game this season. There are plenty of great matchups this season, but some real duds, too. I'll give the basics for each bowl game; who's in it, when, why I (and you) should take the time to watch, and which team gets the early nod from one of the better vegas sites out there. (not that I condone gambling or anything... *wink, wink*)

Part 2: Armed Forces Bowl thru BCS Title Game
Part 1

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 31 / 12 p.m. 

Air Force (8-4) vs. Houston (7-5)
Why I should watch: While you're getting ready for that New Years Eve party, flip this one on. It's nothing to go gaga for, but it offers some decent football between some evenly matched teams. Since this is another service academy in a bowl game, you sort of have to feel guilty if you don't watch.
Early line: Cougs by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 3/10.

Brut Sun Bowl Dec. 31 / 2 p.m.

Pitt (9-3) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
Why I should watch: There's two reasons for Penn State fans to tune into this game. Everyone loves rooting against Pittsburgh, and an Oregon State win would boost PSU's strength of schedule going into the final BCS poll release. The Beavers left a bad taste in everyone's mouths, getting blown out by Oregon in the final game. Meanwhile, we can't forget that Pitt lost to Bowling Green, and was slammed by Rutgers. As mediocre as they are, this game should be good.
Early line: Beavs by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl Dec. 31 / 3:30 p.m. 

Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
Why I should watch: Wow, where did Vanderbilt go after that 5-0 start? Seems like decades ago we were ranking the 'Dors in the top-15. Not so much now. Combine that with the fact that Boston College was ambushed by a fired-up Virginia Tech team, and this game could get ugly in a big hurry. Still, it's BCS vs. BCS.
Early line: Fighting Fluties by 3.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 3/10.

Insight Bowl Dec. 31 / 5:30 

Minnesota (7-5) vs. Kansas (7-5)
Why I should watch: The Golden Gophers were a nice feel-good story for about eight weeks, then it all caved in. Yes, it was still a great turnaround, but Kansas is still a much better overall team than Minnesota. Don't forget that the Jayhawks pulled out a very gutsy win over Missouri three weeks ago, in one of the best games this year. If KU quarterback Todd Reesing comes out sharp, this could turn into a great QB-battle with Adam Weber. Too bad its on the NFL Network.
Early line: Hawks by 10.
On paper, this game gets a... 3/10.

Chick-fil-A Bowl Dec. 31 / 7:30 p.m.
Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5)
Why I should watch: The talking heads on TV are still trying to cling to their "SEC is awesome!" preseason garbage, by calling for the upset here. Not so fast, my Corso wanna-be friends. Georgia Tech completely demolished Georgia–you know, the team that was supposed to win the National Championship–in the final game, while LSU has been a shell of the program it was the last few seasons. I'm not so sure this won't turn into a blowout.
Early line: Wreck by 4.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Outback Bowl Jan. 1 / 11 a.m.

Iowa (8-4) vs. South Carolina (7-5)
Why I should watch: Here we go, the first Big Ten vs. SEC matchup this bowl season, and it looks like quite the yawner. South Carolina played a very easy schedule, with its only good win against 8-4 Ole Miss. Losses to Vandy and Clemson were inexcusable. Iowa was a bit different, as three of four losses came to teams with more than nine wins, while the Hawkeyes beat No. 3 Penn State.
Early line: Hawks by 3.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Jan. 1 / 1 p.m.  

Clemson (7-5) vs. Nebraska (8-4)
Why I should watch: How quiet have those Cornhuskers been? Bo Pelini might be trying to keep his team under the radar for a while, because when he gets all the pieces in place, Big Red will be a killer once again. But it might all blow open early with a win over Clemson. Speaking of the Tigers, it wasn't all that long ago we were getting hyped up about the Alabama-Clemson game, only to find out that Clemson was a very, very mediocre team.
Early line: Tigers by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

Capital One Bowl Jan. 1 / 1 p.m. 

Michigan State (9-3) vs. Georgia (9-3)
Why I should watch: This is Big Ten vs. SEC part two. But this game won't be as kind to them northerners. Michigan State had a very good season, beating all the teams it should have. That was pretty impressive, considering where the program was under John L. Smith. Now look at Georgia, which came into this season with all the glitz and glamour of a sure-thing Hollywood blockbuster. Well, that movie bombed, moving straight to DVD in two months. Possibly one of the most overrated teams in college football this year, Georgia will come out hungry to redeem itself. It may not be a blowout, but it won't be pretty.
Early line: Dogs by 7.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl Jan. 2 / 5:00 p.m.

East Carolina (9-4) vs. Kentucky (6-6)
Why I should watch: The Pirates made a big splash this September, beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Then they dropped a few games, and quickly lost favor among the pundits. But East Carolina made up for it by winning C-USA. Kentucky should be much better next season or the year after that, but it still managed a bowl bid.
Early line: Pirates by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

AT&T Cotton Bowl Jan. 2 / 2 p.m.   

Texas Tech (11-1) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)

Why I should watch: Ok SEC, want to prove you're not mega-overrated this year? Beat Texas Tech. Ed Orgeron, er, Mississippi wasn't given enough credit for winning eight games, one being Florida's only loss, in the Swamp. Texas Tech never seemed to recover from the Oklahoma debacle and could be prime meat for an upset. But Mike Leach has a way to win games, and Ole Miss hasn't seen anything like it before.
Early line: Tech by 5.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.


International Bowl Jan. 3 / 12 p.m. 

Connecticut (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-5)
Why I should watch: UConn isn't all that bad, having earned two straight bowl bids. Plus, coach Randy Edsall is still a very good coach who knows how to get a lot out of a little. Buffalo is probably the best overall program-turnaround from the last few years to this season's MAC championship. Turner Gill has entertained offers to other big-time jobs, but will probably stay put for another season.
Early line: Huskies by 4.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 2/10.

GMAC Bowl Jan. 6 / 8 p.m. 

Tulsa (10-3) vs. Ball State (12-1)
Why I should watch: This can be the "Wow, how did we lose those games" bowl. Ball State was one uninspired performance away from going undefeated, while Tulsa was everyone's favorite offensive juggernaut for most of this year. Outside of the massive disappointments that were the two teams' final games, this one should provide some fireworks.
Early line: Cards by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

BCS Games

FedEx Orange Bowl Jan. 1 / 8 p.m.
 
Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. Cincinnati (11-2)

Why I should watch: All my friends and neighbors around here are Hokies fans, so there's some interest from that. But actually I think I'll root against Tech. I'm a Big East guy by nature, so I'll go with Cincy. It's still not one of the best BCS games in recent memory. VT coach Frank Beamer got a lot out of his team after a disastrous start, to win the ACC. Cincinnati has now won 21 games the last two seasons, and coach Brian Kelly said he's staying put. Remember, Oklahoma was one of Cincy's losses.
Early line: Bear...cats by 2.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Rose Bowl presented by Citi Jan. 1 / 5:10 p.m.
  
USC (11-1) vs. Penn State (11-1)

Why I should watch: You know why... I'll have the full Rose Bowl Preview posted on Dec. 29.
Early line: Condoms by 9.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 9/10.

Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 2 / 8:30 p.m.
  
Alabama (12-1) vs. Utah (12-0)
Why I should watch: What will Alabama do now? The Tide was riding higher than a Utah skilift, until it all came crashing down with a loss to Florida in the championship game. If Nick Saban is really a good coach, he'll get his team ready. Personally, I would have rather seen Alabama take on Texas in the "Should-Have-Been-In-Bowl." Utah is back in the BCS after crashing the party in 2004. But this time, it's not going up against an 8-3 Pitt team. The Utes have been one of the more consistent winners over the last few years, and with a win can make an even stronger, even if its unintentional, case for a playoff system.
Early line: Tide by 10.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Jan. 5 / 8 p.m.
  
Texas (11-1) vs. Ohio State (10-2)
Why I should watch: Texas beat Oklahoma. Texas beat Oklahoma. TEXAS... BEAT... OKLAHOMA... 45-35! Has there ever been more motivation for a eam to absolutely annihilate its opponent? On top of that, Colt McCoy didn't even win the Heisman, losing to Sam Bradford... of Oklahoma! Ohio State, though, isn't even being given a chance in this one. We all know what happens when you tell a team "you can't possibly win this one." The Buckeyes are just not as good as we thought this year, and don't count on Terrelle Pryor.
Early line: Horns by 9.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 8/10.

FedEx BCS National Championship Jan. 8 / 8 p.m.
 
Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Florida (12-1)
Why I should watch: I never would have thought that Oklahoma would be an under-the-radar kind of team this year, but they have been. With so much hype over Texas Tech, Texas, Florida, Alabama and even Georgia early on, Oklahoma sort of fell by the wayside after losing to the Longhorns. On the other hand, Florida always had its SEC homers telling anyone who would listen, that the Gators were the best kept secret all season long, and that the Ole Miss loss actually made them better. Plus, watching two Heisman winners on the same field is always fun.
Early line: Fighting Tebows by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 9/10.

More below the fold...

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

2008 Bowl Previews, Part 1

Let's begin our quick look into each bowl game this season. There are plenty of great matchups this season, but some real duds, too. I'll give the basics for each bowl game; who's in it, when, why I (and you) should take the time to watch, and which team gets the early nod.

Part 1: EagleBank Bowl thru Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Part 2

EagleBank Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 11 a.m.

Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)

Why I should watch: Wake Forest was a hot team coming into the season, but turned out to be less than stellar. The Demon Deacons did beat Ole Miss, who beat Florida in The Swamp. Navy is a service academy, which is always appealing to watch, especially since the Middies are the best of the best at running the triple-option. Plus, it's not every day you get football during brunch.
Early line: Wake by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.


New Mexico Bowl 
Dec. 20/12:30 p.m.

Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5)

Why I should watch: Remember when Fresno State was a hot team this year? Well, it seems the Bulldogs were just another product of the September hype machine. Colorado State is the first team we're looking at that shouldn't be in a bowl game, but that's for a whole other post.
Early line:: Fresno by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 8 p.m. 

BYU (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Why I should watch: The Pac 10 was reeling this season, but Arizona managed to eke out a bowl big with a win over State. It was a nice little story no one cared about. BYU on the other hand, was everyone's darling for most of the year, fluttering in and out of the top-15.
Early line: Zona by 2.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl 
Dec. 20 / 9 p.m. 

South Florida (7-5) vs. Memphis (6-6)
Why I should watch: The Bulls were supposed to contend for the Big East championship, but stumbled to 7-5. They have a good playmaker in QB Matt Grothe, and a decent defense when they want to be. Memphis is another team that shouldn't be in a bowl game
Early line: USF by 12.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl 
Dec. 21 / 8 p.m.

Troy (8-4) vs. Southern Miss (6-6)

Why I should watch: Remember (yeah, I know I started this way already...) when Ohio State struggled with Troy at home, and all the SEC folks were pointing their fingers and laughing at the Big Ten? Well, where were they all when Troy was up 31-3(!) over LSU in Baton Rouge before blowing the lead? There's no other interest in this bowl other than how Troy played against the "big boys" this season. Southern Miss is Team No. 3 that shouldn't have gotten a bid.
Early line: Troyjans by 4.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 2/10.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl 
Dec. 23 / 8 p.m. 

TCU (10-2) vs. Boise State (12-0)
Why I should watch: Finally, a decent bowl game. Even though Boise State didn't play anyone this season outside of Oregon, they were still one of only two teams (Utah) boasting a perfect record. The real equalizer for this one is that it's in San Diego, not the frozen tundra known as Boise, Idaho. The Horned Frogs have one of the best defensive lines in college football, with all four of its starters named to the All-MWC teams this year.
Early line: says: Frogs by 2.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl 
Dec. 24 / 8 p.m.

Notre Dame (6-6) vs. Hawaii (7-5)
Why I should watch: There are two kinds of people in this country: Those who like Notre Dame, and those who hate Notre Dame. This game will draw an audience for no other reason than those watching will either want the Irish to win, or they want them to lose. Oh, and a few Hawaii fans thrown in too. Besides, what else is there to do on Dec. 24?... oh, wait...
Early line: Hawaii by 1.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

Motor City Bowl 
Dec. 26 / 7:30 p.m.

Florida Atlantic (6-6) vs. Central Michigan (8-4)
Why I should watch: Ahh, the grace and beauty of Detroit in December. Central Michigan has made this place its second home during the winter, while Florida Atlantic will get off the plane and realize why no southern teams want to play up north after October.
Early line: Chipps by 7.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

Meineke Car Care Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 1 p.m. 

North Carolina (8-4) vs. West Virginia (8-4)
Why I should watch: North Carolina had a good year, but not great. West Virginia had a very not-good year, but not horrible. Although both teams took steps in opposite directions this season, they both seem poised for big things in 2009. How big? This game could tell us a lot about where they'll be next season.
Early line: Even.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Champs Sports Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 4:30 p.m. 

Florida State (8-4) vs. Wisconsin (7-5)
Why I should watch: This would have been the best bowl matchup of the season... if it were 1998 or 1999. But it's 2008, and the two programs are shells of what they were a decade ago. Still, two name-brand teams will draw some eyes, mine included. At one point this year, these were two teams with promise. Then reality set in.
Early line: Noles by 5.
On paper, this game gets a... 5/10.

Emerald Bowl 
Dec. 27 / 8:30 p.m.

Miami (7-5) vs. California (8-4)
Why I should watch: California is a little better than its records shows, as is Miami. This is going to be a vastly underrated matchup between two very decent football teams. While Cal wasn't anything special this year, it won a big game early against Michigan State. Miami is very athletic, and should be a real killer next year.
Early line: Cal by 7.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

Independence Bowl 
Dec. 28 / 8 p.m.

Louisiana Tech (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (6-6)
Why I should watch: This game will have to compete with the NFL on Sunday, but if you're like me and playing any one of the million bowl pick'ems, it's worth a few minutes.
Early line: NIU by 1.5.
On paper, this game gets a... 1/10.

PapaJohn’s.com Bowl 
Dec. 29 / 3 p.m.

Rutgers (6-6) vs. NC State (6-6)
Why I should watch: If you told me in September that these two teams would go bowling this year, I would have laughed in your face. Who's laughing now? Rutgers made one of the best intra-season turnarounds I can remember (trumping Penn State 2001, since RU made a bowl), and NC State is steadily returning to respectability under Tom O'Brien.
Early line: K'niggits by 7.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10. (only because I'm from North Jersey)

Alamo Bowl 
Dec. 29 / 8 p.m.

Northwestern (9-3) vs. Missouri (9-3)
Why I should watch: Missou was at one point ranked No. 3 this season, only to lose three games. Northwestern was the cinderella story in the Big Ten this season, just beating out Minnesota for the honor. The Alamo Bowl really scored a knockout game here, even though one of these 9-3 teams is much better than the other.
Early line: Missou by 13.
On paper, this game gets a... 6/10.

Texas Bowl 
Dec. 30 / 8 p.m.


Western Michigan (9-3) vs. Rice (9-3)

Why I should watch: I still don't quite understand why the freakin' NFL Network is broadcasting a bowl game, but oh well. Western Michigan has been a pretty good program the last few years, while Rice has a very dynamic (I hate that word in sports) pass-catch duo in Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard. Sparks could fly in this one.
Early line: Rice by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 4/10.

Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl 
Dec. 30/4:30 p.m.

Maryland (7-5) vs. Nevada (7-5)
Why I should watch: The field is made of blue turf. Sure, it'll make your eyes hurt for a bit, but isn't that the idea? Maryland was on the brink of a good season, but then turned into the same team that lost to Middle Tennessee State earlier this year. The Terps did beat Cal though. Two of Nevada's five losses were to Texas Tech and Missouri, so you have to give them a little credit where it's due.
Early line: Pack by 1.5.
On paper, this game gets... 3/10.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl 
Dec. 30 / 8 p.m.

Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Oregon (9-3)
Why I should watch: Playing on a Tuesday will never draw too many eyes, but the teams playing this year will more than make up for it. In prime Holiday Bowl tradition, two really good teams go at each other. Oregon fell of the map early this year, but turned it around, capping the season with by blasting Oregon State. Oklahoma State lost to the teams it was supposed to, and there were only three of them.
Early line: 'Boys by 3.
On paper, this game gets a... 7/10.

Part 2

More below the fold...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

MSM Working Hard; All-Americans and Bowl Projections

Yes, it's game week, and with only two more days before football--holy shit, really, you should watch Oregon State Thursday night--the Main Stream Media is churning out readership inflators like Joe Paterno mumbles on-air. Both SI.com and ESPN.com came out with debatable content, SI's All-American team, and ESPN's bowl projections. And before I go any further, PSU is represented well in both.

First, on SI's All-American team, Maurice Evans is the first DE listed. It would have been easy to just say he's good at sacking the quarterback (duh, if you're AA, you should be), but SI was kind enough to do some real research and point out that Mo forced five fumbles last year, two of which came in the come-back win over Texas A&M in the Alamo Bowl. Stats like that go much further when determining if a guys is just a player, or a play-maker. George Selvie of USF came in at the other DE spot. Who would have thought the team PSU played in its 2005 opener would be thinking BCS bid only two seasons later.

Heading over to ESPN.com, Mark Schlabach and Bruce Feldman gave their bowl projections for 2008. Feldman, while once admitting to me he always liked PSU, was a bit more skeptical of the Lions this season. He slotted them for the Outback Bowl against Tennessee. Hey, at least it's on New Years Day, folks. Schlabach put PSU a bit higher, facing off with Auburn in the Capital One Bowl. Personally, I'd like to see that happen (not over a BCS bid, of course), so that PSU could have a chance at redemption for the Tigers' upset win over PSU in the 2003 Capital One Bowl. Yeah, that was my first bowl game live, and it was quite disappointing.

I should mention that Wisconsin and Ohio State were the two teams ahead of PSU in both sets of picks. Schlabach said OSU would be in the BCS title game, with Wisconsin going to the Rose. Feldman doesn't think OSU will make the big game, going to the Rose, with Wisky in the Capital One.

I'd take three January bowl appearances in four years. But I'd like two bowl wins in three years over SEC foes even better.

More below the fold...

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