Michigan breakdown with Maize and Blue Nation

The Wolverines have already surpassed their 2008 win total, and could throw a big wrench into the Big Ten title race with a win over the Nittany Lions.

Today we're happy to have Brad, Maize and Blue Nation blogger, here to talk about the upcoming game from a Wolverine view.

ZN: Following a disastrous 3-9 campaign last season, gauge for us the overall mood around the program, from the players to the fans to the media.

MBN: It all depends on who you ask. From the fans perspective, I've talked to people who think we're still very vulnerable to the upper-tier teams of the Big Ten. But I've also talked to those who think we'll end the season with 9-10 wins. I think some fans, myself included sometimes, can forget that we're just one season removed from being a very bad football team. The big win against Western Michigan to start the season and then the huge win against Notre Dame the week after really raised the level of expectations for this year's team.

I can't speak much for the media right now, but from the Michigan blogger perspective, we're taking this season one game at a time. Most of us realize that this is still a very young team with new players on both sides of the ball. There will be some mistakes here and there. Our defense has looked both very bad, and very good at times. Same can be said of our offensive line and running backs. Although lately our ground game, running between the tackles, has drastically improved.

The players seem to be inspired about having some early success in the season. I think their confidence took a bit of a hit when we lost to Sparty a few weeks ago...but they bounced back to play a pretty good game at Iowa (even though we still lost)...and then of course blowing away Delaware State last week. One of the nice things about having so many young players, is that they seem to mentally bounce back quickly from tough losses. They realize that this season is just their first or second...and that they'll have another shot at making a run at a Big Ten or even a national championship.

ZN: What has been the biggest surprise for Michigan this season?

MBN: No question, the improved QB play. So much rests on the ability of the QB to run this style of offense. It's not just handing off the ball or doing a simple 3-step drop back pass. The responsibility of the QB to not only make good decisions, but to make checks and read coverages...on every play, is very difficult to even a senior QB to do. What Forcier has been able to do, as young as he is, is nothing short of remarkable.

I've been a Michigan fan a long time and have watched many talented QBs grow into NFL caliber players. But what I've witnessed this kid do are things that no other QB here as ever done. He just has that certain quality that you can not coach, you just have it or you don't. The trick now for Forcier is to limit the little mistakes and bring his overall game up the level of the competition.

ZN: Biggest disappointment?

MBN: Hmm. After going 3-9...hard to find disappointment in being 5-2. But I guess I would have to say the secondary. We have a few guys in there right now that were not on the depth chart for their position, to begin the season. CB Donovan Warren has been the one solid piece of the secondary and the defense overall. He's a future NFL star for sure. My only hope is that he returns for his senior year.

The #2 CB position has been a revolving door. First it was Boubacar Cissoko. He was exposed big time against Notre Dame and then again and again the following two weeks. JT Floyd came in to help out in that position but was quickly replaced for the Iowa game by safety Troy Woolfolk. It seems like we may have that position secured for now, but if either one of our CBs goes down, we're in trouble.

Safety has been a area of concern as well. We do have some good players back there, but they are relatively new at their position. SS Jordan Kovacs is a walk-on who DC Greg Robinson didn't even know about when he took the job earlier this year, and FS Mike Williams has been battling an injured ankle for the past few weeks.

Long story short, if we can stay healthy with the personnel we have right now. we might show some improvement over the next 5 games. But we're very light on the depth chart. Experience is the biggest problem. Part of that could be attributed to having 3 DC's in 3 seasons. Adapting to Greg Robinson's style of defense has taken its toll on our coverages, at least early in the season.

ZN: Michigan is eight points from a 7-0 record, or seven points from 3-4, depending on how you look at it. So, which is it? Is this Michigan team closer to that 7-0 "what if," or the 3-4 "what if?"

MBN: I'd like to think we're closer to 7-0 than 3-4. But you really could make the argument either way. This actually the first time I've heard someone make this comparison.

But I personally think we're closer to the 7-0 "what if". Against MSU, we came back from a terrible first 3 quarters to force the game into overtime where we lost the game, basically on a INT thrown by Forcier. Same for Iowa. 5 turnovers in that game plagued our offense. And on our final drive to try and win the game, Robinson tossed an INT.

So, we're really just a couple turnovers away from possibly being undefeated.

ZN: Talk about one unit-vs-unit matchup Michigan can win this week. And one that UM will probably lose.

MBN: I think our strength in this game is going to be our offensive line. They have really come around as this season has progressed. Just as last year in the first half when Michigan ran all over PSU defense, I think the emphasis will be to do that again. Both teams can score big, but I think the goal will be to control the line of scrimmage and force the Penn State defense to load up 7 or 8 into the box. Also, it would be nice to keep the PSU offense off the field as much as possible.

The biggest unit-v-unit problem-area I see is the Michigan passing offense versus the PSU pass defense. We're young at QB. And for as much as I like Forcier's ability and accuracy, I still think he can be vulnerable to a good secondary. This is why I think the emphasis on establishing a good ground attack will pay dividends in our ability to open up the downfield passing game. Michigan's offense is predicated on our ability to keep the defense guessing. The minute we become one dimensional, it's a real struggle for us to move the ball.

ZN: What should one expect to see in the Sunday papers, should Michigan lose this game? What if Michigan wins?

MBN: If Michigan loses this game, it will be because we made a lot of mistakes that Penn State was able to capitalize on. We probably wouldn't have been able to move the ball very well. Time of possession will likely have been very lopsided. The defense will have been put into some pretty bad situations and wouldn't have been able to do much to keep points off the board. A Michigan loss will likely be a close game...maybe only a difference of 3-4 points.

If Michigan wins, it will be because we were able to run the ball well, control the line of scrimmage and keep the Penn State offense off the field. Pretty simple. If we can run the ball well, then we'll be able to pass the ball well. If Michigan wins, it will likely be my 10+ points.

Of course, all this is all a mute point if both defenses forget to show up (unlikely in PSU's case), and it turns out to be an offensive shootout. It'll be a toss up at that point...probably who ever has the ball last will win. In which case it will also air on Sunday as an instant classic on ESPN.

Many thanks again to Brad, and good luck to the Wolverines... but not too much luck.

In other news...

Don't forget ZN LIVE! makes its triumphant return this week! Set your reminders and join us this Saturday.

More below the fold...

Without Preconditions, Michigan blog talks with Zombie Nation

Michigan blogger Brad, from Maize & Blue Nation was kind enough to field some questions about this week's game in Happy Valley.

1. What's the state of Michigan football, right now?

MBN: "Michigan Football is slightly behind where I'd thought they'd be. I knew we would struggle, but not to this extent. I was hoping for at least 6-8 wins to be bowl-eligible and keep our streak alive, but that ship has sailed with losses to Toledo and Utah. They're rebuilding with a new coaching staff, a new offensive system and freshmen at almost every skill position. They have a young and inexperienced offensive line and very young receivers...and it shows.

There are Michigan die-hard fans out there who are very upset at the state of Michigan football right now. They somehow believed that rebuilding meant struggling in some non-conference games, and then by the conference schedule we'd be off to the races. That simply is just not the case. Michigan is having a difficult time finding their identity. And I'm afraid they won't find it this season. As much as the players try, it's just too much of a learning curve to figure out how to run the spread/option in one year with so many young players. I see it working in a year or two, but right now it's not pretty.

The good thing is that while we have struggled offensively to move the ball and score points, our defense has been reasonably decent. And by decent, I mean they've kept us in some games where we probably should have been well out of it by the 4th quarter (see: Wisconsin). Our DL and DEs and very good, and our LBs can hold their own, but do have trouble tackling from time to time in the open field. The real question mark is our secondary. When they play a man-to-man coverage scheme, they do pretty well. But for some reason Shafer likes to drop them into a soft zone, which means an easy 5-8 yard out for the other team's WRs. Very frustrating."

2. How much of Michigan's struggles have to do with coaching? How much with personnel?

MBN: "Like I said above, at least defensively, it's a little bit of both.

Offensively, it's very much a product of personnel. We just don't have the players to run this scheme very well. I think the spread/option is a great offense, in theory. But only when you have experienced players running it. When it works, it works very well, and when it doesn't work, it looks terrible.

Over time, just at with West Virginia, it will come to these players. It just takes repetition and for the players to get used to the motions. Playing games against good competition (like PSU) will also help this team grow into the system faster."

3. Is there anything, even one thing, that Michigan can do to win this game? What, and why?

MBN: "When it comes to playing games against better teams, all you can do is control what you can control. Don't turn the ball over, don't make mistakes on special teams, and limit the penalties. Unfortunately, these have been problems for Michigan this year.

Other than that, just go out there and try to play loose and give yourself the best chance to be in the game in the 4th quarter. When you keep underdogs around at the end of the game, the momentum shifts and can easily make the underdog feel suddenly like they can win. That might not happen this weekend, but if you're a Michigan fan, that's something to hope for.

Also, you can hope that Penn State comes into this game just so ridiculously over-confident, and looking past Michigan to Ohio State that you can somehow sneak up on them and by the time they realize that this is a game, Michigan has the momentum. Not probable, but it can happen."

4. Realistic score prediction? What might we see in this game?

MBN: "I'm terrible at score predictions. But I'll say Penn State wins 31-10.

I really don't know what we'll see from the Michigan offense. We're such a mystery right now. If it goes anything like the last 6 games, I think we'll see a lot of option-reads to McGuffie up the middle, maybe an off-tackle or two, of which we may have some moderate success. A lot of screen passes. A few downfield throws here and there that will probably sail 5 yards over the receiver's heads. All-in-all, just an offense that looks like it is trying too hard and not quite getting it.

Penn State will, I assume, pressure Threet or Sheridan with a lot of blitzes early. Michigan will not be able to establish a passing game, so Penn State will just stack 8 or 9 in the box and keep Michigan pinned all night long.

Defensively, I think Michigan will look pretty good early. We shouldn't give up too many big plays. But after our offense starts to really struggle and the defense stays on the field too long, Penn State will be able to capitalize on that and give themselves more good scoring opportunities.

It will only be Michigan's second time on the road this year, and it will be at a very hostile stadium. Michigan will surely lose this game, but hopefully we can at least keep it close and gain valuable experience."

*Check back later today for the complete Penn State vs. Michigan football preview.

More below the fold...