Please welcome Joe, from Paint the Town Orange, a fine Illinois blog. I shot some questions his way, and he was kind enough to answer them. We're all really excited for this weekend's primetime battle between Penn State and the Illini. So without any more blather from me, here's what PTTO thinks of the game.
1. Illinois had one of the better defenses in the Big Ten last season, but so far r this year, that Illini unit ranks dead last in Big Ten scoring defense and second to last in total defense. Are you worried this week, going up against Penn State, the Big Ten's best scoring offense and best total offense? What's Illinois' biggest defensive weakness?
Am I worried about the PSU offense? Absolutely. It is a balanced dynamic spread offense that is going to put pressure on the line backers to drop back into coverage a lot, as well as keep track of Daryll Clark, Penn State has put up some gaudy number against inferior competition in the last few weeks and the way they hurl the ball around the field makes me sick.
Admittedly, This will not be the best offense that Illinois sees this season, but based on these first few weeks, it wont face another one like it the rest of the season. In the first 3 weeks there has been a major weakness in the Illini defense that is the middle against the run, and that is at every phase of the defense. Up front, the loss of Sirod Williams in camp along with the curious absence of Josh Brent through the first 2 games made DT a major concern, DE Will Davis moved inside and true Freshman Corey Liuget has been rushed into early play. At linebacker Britt Miller, with the exception of Week 3, has not shown either the athleticism he is known for, or the gap discipline that his predecessor J Leman could be relied upon for. At the Safety position the Illini have been without their best Strong Safety Donsay Hardeman with a knee injury up until this coming week. The result of this soft and inexperienced middle? Over 100 yards rushing allowed in both weeks one and two. Scary.
2. If Illinois has one hope of slowing down PSU's offense, what is it and how do the Illini do it? Without a doubt the Illini will be the healthiest on defense this week as they have been all year. The aforementioned Hardeman, and Brent will be back, which moves the best D-lineman Will Davis, back to his true position of DE. I have not watched much Penn State football so far this year, most of what I know comes from the Syracuse game, and I frankly don't know exactly how a defense is supposed to really attack the "spread HD" or whatever it is called, other than just staying discliplined and keeping the receivers from getting open. From week 2 to week 3, Brit Miller showed the most improvement, getting involved in the backfield 3 times in the same series against ULL and scoring his first TD. If the line doesn't give the run any free yards, Will Davis will be heard from in this game, he has the speed to catch a mobile QB, and he will get a sack this game. Overall though what is most important is keeping the game from becoming another St Louis. Illinois can't give up easy points and bad penalties, and it must RUN THE BALL. The best way to diffuse the explosion of points that is Penn State's offense is to keep the ball on the ground and control the clock. Illinois has shown its ability to put up points in gobs as well, but it usually is not a good sign if Juice is throwing as much as he did against Mizzou.
3. How much has the loss of Rashard Mendenhall hurt the Illinois offense, not necessarily in yards, but in consistency? Hearing Rashard Mendenhall and "consistency" kind of makes me chuckle. Prior to last year, Rashard could be counted on to fumble more than anything. Last year was a red letter for the Illinois run game though. In week 3 against Syracuse Rashard really established himself as the obvious every down back. This year we have thus far used 4 runners in an attempt to find consistency. Of these 2 are true freshman, 1 is a redshirt freshman and last is Daniel Dufrene, the RS Junior who has taken the most snaps. Dufrene showed a good amount of speed at OSU last year, but has not shown the burst through the hole, or the sheer strength that Rashard did. There is nothing that this team would love more this year than to have him back, let me tell you.
4. What's your personal memory about last year's Illini upset of the Lions in Champaign?
I remember plenty. I was sitting in the student section and had never ever heard my fellow students cheer as loud as they did when Rejus ran the ball back on the kickoff to respond to PSU's field goal. (bad teams lead to much lower standards, and we have had some bad teams.) I was struck by, and I may be hitting a sore spot here, just how many opportunities to take the game back that Morelli wasted. One way or another though, the Illini defense showed that it could run with the offense of a ranked team. It didn't become real until Kevin Mitchell picked off that last pass, but I was there when the team rushed into the stands of the student section to celebrate with us. We could blow out PSU this year, but it wont mean as much as that first big win last year.
(a buddy took a video of the end of the game here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqO-mqYbc4c)
5. Going forward, what's the rest of the season look like for Illinois 1.) if they lose to PSU, 2.) if they beat PSU? Thus far the season has gone basically according to script, but I don't know if this week will follow my preseason predictions. Penn State is playing much better than I thought, and the Illini D is playing much worse. The Big Ten is pretty wide open right now, and it would not surprise me one bit if, Illinois loses this game and ends the year at 8-4. On the other hand should Illinois beat the "Nitally Lions" then there may never be as good a shot at a Big Ten title for the Illini than this year. OSU is now putting a true freshman in at QB and could be conceding a third straight conference crown. If Illinois wants to consider itself in the top 4 of the Big Ten its going to have to beat some combination of Penn State Wisconsin and Ohio State. We will learn an awful lot about how good both teams are this weekend.
6. Game score?
Optimally 28-21 Illinois, but I would look for a much higher score, on both sides, if the D can't play to its talent level. Least optimal score- 42-35.
Extra Point:
PSU's All-American DE Mo Evans and DT Abe Koroma returned to practice today, and should see playing time vs Illinois. Does that change your outlook at all on this game? It certainly doesn't help my cause, but they played against us last year and we ended up winning. My biggest concern might be that last year this game was played at 11am in Champaign, and this will be a prime time white-out game. We do appreciate the respect that sends to our team you know, that we are good enough now to warrant a white out.
*Coming later: A quick rundown of Paterno's Presser
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