Preview: No. 13/15 Penn State at Illinois

Kickoff/TV: Sat., Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET/ESPN or ABC (Mike Patrick, Craig James and Heather Cox)
Weather Forecast: Cool, showers.
Series Record: Penn State leads Illinois, 13-3

Host: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 1-2 (0-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Ohio St, 30-0
Injuries: LB Martez Wilson (neck - out ssn), CB Miami Thomas (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn; (defense) DE Clay Nurse, DB Tavon Wilson, DE Corey Liuget
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 5th season at UI, 19-32; 0-1 bowl record; 8th season overall, 42-46; 1-3 vs Penn State
Season Statistics:
Offense - 192.0 rush/155.7 pass/18.0 points per game
Defense - 132.3 rush/253.7 pass/28.0 points per game
TO Margin - (-2)/(-0.67) per game

Illinois, on paper -- Last week's game at Ohio State really skewed Illinois' statistics, as the Buckeyes did not attempt a pass before halftime, and only 13 after the break. Even with the 82 allowed passing yards to Terrelle Pryor, the Illini are still giving up an average of 254 pass yards per game. But in Columbus, the defense wasn't at all helped out by the offense, which imploded as the game went on. Illinois finished with 170 total yards, and only four completions to Arrelious Benn for a mere 33 yards. The Illini have played a very difficult schedule so far this season, even with the Illinois State game on there. Missouri has turned out to be much better than anyone anticipated, and Ohio State looks like it could run the table after nearly defeating USC. The most anyone can say about this Illini team is that we don't really know what kind of team they are, even after three games.

Many in Illini country have pointed to a shift in offensive philosophy this season under new coordinator Mike Schultz as the reason for the inconsistency on that side of the ball. While Illinois still third in the conference in rushing per game, most of that was piled on in the Illinois State win. Juice Williams use to be asked to run the zone-read runs and down-field bombs. Now he's asked to run a more West Coast offense, with shorter, accurate passes. That's not what he's built to do. Just look at his last two trips to Columbus, and you'll see the difference.

On defense, Illinois has struggled mightily the last two seasons. Add in the loss this year of star LB Martez Wilson, and this unit is in serious need of some stability. Illinois has only totaled four sacks this season, and is allowing opponents to score on 90 percent of all red zone trips, including seven touchdowns in 10 attempts. Worse, opponents are converting 47 percent of all third downs against the Illini. This is still a dangerous team with a lot of talent, but without any sort of breather to regain its composure, Illinois could struggle for a while longer this season.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 3-1 (0-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs Iowa, 21-10
Injuries: LB Navorro Bowman (groin - probable), LB Sean Lee (knee - possible), LB Nate Stupar (ankle - possible), DT Brandon Ware (ankle - out), DB Jacob Fagnano (ankle - out), FB Josh Matzkin (foot - out), DE Pete Massaro (ACL - out ssn), LB Mike Mauti (ACL - out ssn)
Key Players: (offense) The entire offensive line; (defense) DL Jared Odrick, CB D'Anton Lynn, LB Josh Hull
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th season at Penn State, 386-128-3; 23-11 bowl record
Season Statistics:
Offense - 127.2 rush/247.5 pass/25.0 points per game
Defense - 75.5 rush/158.2 pass/10.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-4)/(-1) per game

Penn State, on paper -- The Nittany Lions are dead last in Big Ten turnover margin, a statistic that screams loudly when looking at Penn State's loss to Iowa last week. The five turnovers -- counting the blocked punt for a touchdowns -- made all the difference in the game, particularly considering Penn State's defense played well enough to win without the offense working against itself.

As has been the case most of the season so far, the Penn State offense hasn't been able to move the ball at will against even inferior opponents. Most of the Lions' offensive woes have been a direct consequence of sub-par line play. Penn State's offensive line has struggled in one facet or another in every game this year, whether it be run blocking against Akron and Syracuse, or pass protection against Temple and Iowa. Two linemen so far have lost their starting jobs; LG Matt Stankiewitch was replaced by Johnnie Troutman before the Temple game, and DeOn'tae Pannell was pulled from RT during the Iowa debacle, with Nerraw McCormack coming in and probably starting this week. Nearly every question mark going into the season has been answered, from the secondary to the receivers, except for the offensive line. If Penn State can't get it together here, it could be a season full of performances like that against Iowa.

The defense, probably the second-biggest question mark heading into the season, has performed well beyond expectations, particularly in a losing effort last week. The defensive line has been able to stuff the run, leading the conference in rush defense (75.5 ypg). The entire front seven has combined to lead the conference in sacks (12). While the secondary is leading the conference in yards allowed and has a superb TD/INT ratio at 2-5. The Penn State defense currently leads the Big Ten in run defense, pass defense, total defense, sacks, first downs allowed, 3rd down conversions allowed, 4th down conversions allowed, red zone scoring percentage, and tied for first with Iowa for total touchdowns allowed. Not all bad for a unit that had to replace four senior starters in the backfield, a first-team All-America defensive end, and two other veteran defensive ends.

On the field -- While the Penn State offense will garner much of the attention this weekend from analysts and fans, it could be the defense that makes or breaks the Nittany Lions in Champaign. Illinois has consistently put up big offensive numbers the last three meetings, and could very well do it again. If Penn State can take a few pointers from what the Ohio State-Illinois tape shows, the Lions have a great chance to shut down a potentially potent Illini attack. But for both offenses, it will be all about the turnover margin in this game. The team that commits the most mistakes, as in any game, will have a serious chance to lose this one. For Penn State, it will be efficiency in the red zone and pass protection for Daryll Clark. For Illinois, it will be staying on the field to keep Penn State's offense on the bench.

But the defenses aren't nearly close to each other in terms of production and talent. Penn State has been able to reload the past few years, rather than completely rebuild, something Illinois doesn't have the luxury of doing. This could turn out to be a sloppy, dreadful game for both teams, but I just don't see Illinois as having the firepower on offense, or the speed on defense to come out on top.

Extra points -- Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has only lost twice to Illinois, both times in Champaign... The PSU-UI series has borne many memorable moments in Nittany Lions' history, including the "LaVar Leap" in 1998 and "The Drive" in 1994... Penn State's last trip to Memorial Stadium was a 27-20 loss... Attendance prediction: 62,400

Prediction: No. 13/15 Penn State, 27 - Illinois, 23

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Preview: No. 12 Penn State vs. No. 21 Illinois

Kickoff: Sat., Sept. 27. 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN GamePlan

Weather Forecast: High 50s, Strong Chance for Rain.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 4-0 (0-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Temple, 45-3
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) Saf. Anthony Scirrotto, DE Aaron Maybin
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 376-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 274.2 rush/264.2 pass/52.8 points per game
Defense - 52.2 rush/170 pass/10 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why PSU will win -- The offense: Yes, as any of you could have predicted, I think the Penn State offensive juggernaut will roll on this week. There are plenty of good offenses in the Big Ten, five of which are averaging more than 30 points per game. Then there’s PSU’s unit, which is cranking out 15 more points per game than the next best offense, Illinois’. Daryll Clark is the best quarterback, and he’ll be supported by the best rushing attack in the conference. Penn State leads the Big Ten in all four major categories. (Total off., Pass, Rush, PPG) The run defense: Illinois may average 224 yards per game on the ground, but most of that came from a 399-yard day vs. I-AA Eastern Illinois. Penn State’s front four has played far beyond anyone’s expectations, and will put tons of pressure on Juice Williams. More importantly, however, is that Penn State has the No. 1 rush defense in the Big Ten, mostly due to the line play. Big Ten sack leader Aaron Maybin, captain Josh Gaines, along with tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu will clamp down on the Illini run game.

Visitor: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 2-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Louisiana Lafayette 20-17
Injuries: OL Ryan Palmer (foot - out), DB Miami Thomas (ACL - out season), S Donsay Hardeman (knee - probable), WR Jeff Cumberland (foot - probable)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, RB Daniel Dufrene; (defense) LB Brit Miller, LB Martez Wilson
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 4th season at Illinois, 15-24; 7th year overall, 38-38
Season Statistics:
Offense - 224.7 rush/244 pass/36.3 points per game
Defense - 163 rush/208.3 pass/30 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)

Why Illinois will win -- Juice Williams: If this guy has a good game, the Illinois offense will have a great game. He’s probably the most improved passer in the Big Ten since his freshman season (<40% comp). Williams can’t afford to turn the ball over in a hostile Beaver Stadium, and I think he can do it. We all saw what he did to Ohio State in Columbus last year. Just like then, converting third downs will be the absolute key to this game for the Illini. Turnovers: Penn State hasn’t been taking good care of the ball lately (4 lost fum.), and Illinois must capitalize on that. What should really get the Illini anxious is that most of those fumbles came near the goal line, which would set them up nicely for quick, cheap point. Illinois has to score, and score a lot, and turnovers are a great way to do it.

What will happen: Illinois has played in very intimidating places (Columbus vs. No. 1 Ohio State, maybe?), but they have never played in front of a Penn State White Out, at night. Just ask those Buckeyes how things went in 2005. I think Illinois will be able to move the ball, but fail to score enough touchdowns. Penn State, on the other hand, should be able to march up and down the field, almost at will against a porous Illini defense--dead last in the Big Ten in PPG. I said earlier that Juice Williams will have to play a near-perfect game to win this one... he won’t. Penn State isn’t taking Illinois for granted the way Ohio State did in 2007, and everyone knows these are two very good teams. Evan Royster will have the national-spotlight game to thrust himself into dark horse Heisman contention. But I think the Penn State offense will prove to college football that they’re for real.

Prediction: No. 12 Penn State, 44 - No. 21 Illinois, 23

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Illini Speak'um to Nittany :: Illinois Blogger Weighs In

Please welcome Joe, from Paint the Town Orange, a fine Illinois blog. I shot some questions his way, and he was kind enough to answer them. We're all really excited for this weekend's primetime battle between Penn State and the Illini. So without any more blather from me, here's what PTTO thinks of the game.

1. Illinois had one of the better defenses in the Big Ten last season, but so far r this year, that Illini unit ranks dead last in Big Ten scoring defense and second to last in total defense. Are you worried this week, going up against Penn State, the Big Ten's best scoring offense and best total offense? What's Illinois' biggest defensive weakness?

Am I worried about the PSU offense? Absolutely. It is a balanced dynamic spread offense that is going to put pressure on the line backers to drop back into coverage a lot, as well as keep track of Daryll Clark, Penn State has put up some gaudy number against inferior competition in the last few weeks and the way they hurl the ball around the field makes me sick.

Admittedly, This will not be the best offense that Illinois sees this season, but based on these first few weeks, it wont face another one like it the rest of the season. In the first 3 weeks there has been a major weakness in the Illini defense that is the middle against the run, and that is at every phase of the defense. Up front, the loss of Sirod Williams in camp along with the curious absence of Josh Brent through the first 2 games made DT a major concern, DE Will Davis moved inside and true Freshman Corey Liuget has been rushed into early play. At linebacker Britt Miller, with the exception of Week 3, has not shown either the athleticism he is known for, or the gap discipline that his predecessor J Leman could be relied upon for. At the Safety position the Illini have been without their best Strong Safety Donsay Hardeman with a knee injury up until this coming week. The result of this soft and inexperienced middle? Over 100 yards rushing allowed in both weeks one and two. Scary.

2. If Illinois has one hope of slowing down PSU's offense, what is it and how do the Illini do it?

Without a doubt the Illini will be the healthiest on defense this week as they have been all year. The aforementioned Hardeman, and Brent will be back, which moves the best D-lineman Will Davis, back to his true position of DE. I have not watched much Penn State football so far this year, most of what I know comes from the Syracuse game, and I frankly don't know exactly how a defense is supposed to really attack the "spread HD" or whatever it is called, other than just staying discliplined and keeping the receivers from getting open. From week 2 to week 3, Brit Miller showed the most improvement, getting involved in the backfield 3 times in the same series against ULL and scoring his first TD. If the line doesn't give the run any free yards, Will Davis will be heard from in this game, he has the speed to catch a mobile QB, and he will get a sack this game. Overall though what is most important is keeping the game from becoming another St Louis. Illinois can't give up easy points and bad penalties, and it must RUN THE BALL. The best way to diffuse the explosion of points that is Penn State's offense is to keep the ball on the ground and control the clock. Illinois has shown its ability to put up points in gobs as well, but it usually is not a good sign if Juice is throwing as much as he did against Mizzou.

3. How much has the loss of Rashard Mendenhall hurt the Illinois offense, not necessarily in yards, but in consistency?

Hearing Rashard Mendenhall and "consistency" kind of makes me chuckle. Prior to last year, Rashard could be counted on to fumble more than anything. Last year was a red letter for the Illinois run game though. In week 3 against Syracuse Rashard really established himself as the obvious every down back. This year we have thus far used 4 runners in an attempt to find consistency. Of these 2 are true freshman, 1 is a redshirt freshman and last is Daniel Dufrene, the RS Junior who has taken the most snaps. Dufrene showed a good amount of speed at OSU last year, but has not shown the burst through the hole, or the sheer strength that Rashard did. There is nothing that this team would love more this year than to have him back, let me tell you.

4. What's your personal memory about last year's Illini upset of the Lions in Champaign?

I remember plenty. I was sitting in the student section and had never ever heard my fellow students cheer as loud as they did when Rejus ran the ball back on the kickoff to respond to PSU's field goal. (bad teams lead to much lower standards, and we have had some bad teams.) I was struck by, and I may be hitting a sore spot here, just how many opportunities to take the game back that Morelli wasted. One way or another though, the Illini defense showed that it could run with the offense of a ranked team. It didn't become real until Kevin Mitchell picked off that last pass, but I was there when the team rushed into the stands of the student section to celebrate with us. We could blow out PSU this year, but it wont mean as much as that first big win last year.
(a buddy took a video of the end of the game here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqO-mqYbc4c)

5. Going forward, what's the rest of the season look like for Illinois 1.) if they lose to PSU, 2.) if they beat PSU?

Thus far the season has gone basically according to script, but I don't know if this week will follow my preseason predictions. Penn State is playing much better than I thought, and the Illini D is playing much worse. The Big Ten is pretty wide open right now, and it would not surprise me one bit if, Illinois loses this game and ends the year at 8-4. On the other hand should Illinois beat the "Nitally Lions" then there may never be as good a shot at a Big Ten title for the Illini than this year. OSU is now putting a true freshman in at QB and could be conceding a third straight conference crown. If Illinois wants to consider itself in the top 4 of the Big Ten its going to have to beat some combination of Penn State Wisconsin and Ohio State. We will learn an awful lot about how good both teams are this weekend.

6. Game score?

Optimally 28-21 Illinois, but I would look for a much higher score, on both sides, if the D can't play to its talent level. Least optimal score- 42-35.

Extra Point:
PSU's All-American DE Mo Evans and DT Abe Koroma returned to practice today, and should see playing time vs Illinois. Does that change your outlook at all on this game?

It certainly doesn't help my cause, but they played against us last year and we ended up winning. My biggest concern might be that last year this game was played at 11am in Champaign, and this will be a prime time white-out game. We do appreciate the respect that sends to our team you know, that we are good enough now to warrant a white out.

*Coming later: A quick rundown of Paterno's Presser

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No. 21 Penn State vs. Illinois Preview

School: University of Illinois (UI), Fighting Illini
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 3rd Year, 7-20-0
Last Game: Def. Indiana 27-14
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 13-45; 0-0 in bowls; 7-11 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB J Leman, DE Will Davis, CB Vontae Davis

Key Players, Offense: RB Rashard Mendenhall, QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn

What to look for: D – This unit has become night-and-day better than it has been in recent years. Lead by star LB Leman, the run defense is surrendering a mere 87 ypg. The most improved area is the most important, points per game, now at only 18.5. A surprisingly sharp secondary has forced opponents to avoid taking downfield shots, which could help against a team like PSU. UI should have instantly taken notice of how Michigan stuffed PSU’s run game, by pressuring the passing game. UI has some great playmakers on the front line, particularly in DE Davis. If Davis and Co. can get pressure on PSU’s QB, UI could be in for a fun afternoon. For once, UI can lean on its defense if it needs to. In 2006, UI held PSU’s offense down all day in a stellar effort, and will need that sort of outing in the 2007 edition.

O – UI should have beaten Missouri in the opener, but QB Williams left the game with an injury. Since, UI’s been on a tear, winning three in a row. It’s been amazing to watch Williams’ progress over the last year, and come December, might be up for some big recognition. That will, of course, depend on how he performs in the Big Ten season. UI has the best rush offense in the BT, but has done so with the spread, unlike UM, PSU and others. Combine Williams with last week’s BT POW RB Mendenhall, and you get more options than you can use. Throw in rising star Arrelious Benn, and the offense has a playmaking trio unlike anything it’s seen in a long time. UI had no trouble moving the ball against PSU in 2006, but mistakes killed any chance of a win. Now, the UI offense is much better at holding onto the ball. The UI offensive staff needs to go balls-out against PSU.

ST – This is where UI should worry. The FG unit has been great, but the return coverage could use a jump-start, allowing 19.1 yards per KOR and a monstrous 14.1 yards per PR. PSU has one of the best return games in the land, so UI has to spend some time preparing coverage schemes. If UI can’t win the field position battle, they’ll be in deep trouble.

C – HC Ron Zook has done a fantastic job with UI, regardless of his overall record. UI is on its longest winning streak since 2001, and it’s no fluke. Zook has established himself as one of the nation’s premiere recruiters. The talent is there to make a bowl run. Defense is Zook’s forte, and can show what he’s made of this week. UI needs to play this game with a lead, but if it can’t get ahead, the tools are there to come back.

Fun Stat: UI’s defensive PPG in Zook’s first season: 39.5. UI’s defensive PPG so far this season: 18.5.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-122-3
Last Game: Lost to Michigan, 14-9
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE/LB Jerome Hayes, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, Entire O-line, HC Joe Paterno

What to look for: D – The defense was NOT that bad against Michigan last week. What are you supposed to do when you start with a 10-yard field? Or, what about an offense that can’t give you any sort of help in time of possession? The only scary thing was when UM QB Mallet pulled it down and ran for the 1Q score. But that wasn’t expected from him, and this week PSU is completely prepared for UI QB Williams’ fantastic running ability. Any chance for a win will start with making UI one-dimensional. It will be more likely that DBs King, Sargeant, Scirrotto and Davis (or Rubin) would shut down the UI pass game. If that happens, the PSU front seven can overpower UI at the line. PSU has to stay on their assignments and not over-run UI’s plays.

O – This is the interesting match up. Where does PSU’s offense go from the UM loss? This won’t be a repeat of 2005, where UI was young and inept. QB Morelli can either make or break the season with this game, and has to settle down. But the real story with PSU is whether or not it can HOLD ON TO THE FREAKING BALL! Sorry, but it was very frustrating to watch PSU fumble away the UM game. I think Paterno and his staff are pissed off at RB Scott, but while RB Kinlaw will most likely start, Scott will see action again. On the depth chart, the RB slot is listed as Scott “or” Kinlaw. It was easy to blame the PSU O-line for not allowing enough time, or not opening holes against UM, but it came down to QB Morelli having a meltdown under any sort of pressure. I don’t believe that will happen again at UI. There’s not much to say about the WR corps, other than they need to stay patient and hope PSU can get them the ball more.

ST – This week it has to fire on all cylinders. Last week, K Kelly and P Boone had a very good game, but it was the return game that suffered. UI has had one glaring weakness, and that’s allowing big returns. If the return tandem of Williams and Wallace can break one loose and give the O a short field, the special teams will have done its job. P Boone will continue to be a key element to any win, especially against and UI offense that could struggle mightily against a good PSU D and a long field.

C – The worst players on the field at UM weren’t even wearing a uniform. The PSU coaching staff, mainly Paterno, called a horrible game. Conservative won’t work against UI. PSU needs to put points on the board, fast. This offense isn’t designed for comebacks, and the coaches know that. If PSU comes out and plays like they have a goal post up their ass, they’ll lose. It starts with the play calling.

Fun Stat: PSU scoring offense first 3 games: 45 ppg. PSU scoring offense last game: 9 points. Pathetic.

GAME PREDICTION: I got ahead of myself last week, thinking PSU would score against a mediocre UM defense. They could have, but the coaches didn’t let them. This week that should change. Whether or not UI lost the Mizzou game didn’t matter. It was still a close game against an OK team. None of UI’s opponents have had a defense like PSU does. UI QB Williams will make some great plays, but also some mistakes. Those mistakes will cost UI the game. PSU’s secondary will have their best game of the season, and will finally get the stats to show. PSU will easily cover the spread, but scare some folks doing it.

PSU 28, UI 18

VEGAS:

PSU (-3) UI

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 20, UI 27

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