No. 21 Penn State vs. Illinois Preview

School: University of Illinois (UI), Fighting Illini
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 3rd Year, 7-20-0
Last Game: Def. Indiana 27-14
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 13-45; 0-0 in bowls; 7-11 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB J Leman, DE Will Davis, CB Vontae Davis

Key Players, Offense: RB Rashard Mendenhall, QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn

What to look for: D – This unit has become night-and-day better than it has been in recent years. Lead by star LB Leman, the run defense is surrendering a mere 87 ypg. The most improved area is the most important, points per game, now at only 18.5. A surprisingly sharp secondary has forced opponents to avoid taking downfield shots, which could help against a team like PSU. UI should have instantly taken notice of how Michigan stuffed PSU’s run game, by pressuring the passing game. UI has some great playmakers on the front line, particularly in DE Davis. If Davis and Co. can get pressure on PSU’s QB, UI could be in for a fun afternoon. For once, UI can lean on its defense if it needs to. In 2006, UI held PSU’s offense down all day in a stellar effort, and will need that sort of outing in the 2007 edition.

O – UI should have beaten Missouri in the opener, but QB Williams left the game with an injury. Since, UI’s been on a tear, winning three in a row. It’s been amazing to watch Williams’ progress over the last year, and come December, might be up for some big recognition. That will, of course, depend on how he performs in the Big Ten season. UI has the best rush offense in the BT, but has done so with the spread, unlike UM, PSU and others. Combine Williams with last week’s BT POW RB Mendenhall, and you get more options than you can use. Throw in rising star Arrelious Benn, and the offense has a playmaking trio unlike anything it’s seen in a long time. UI had no trouble moving the ball against PSU in 2006, but mistakes killed any chance of a win. Now, the UI offense is much better at holding onto the ball. The UI offensive staff needs to go balls-out against PSU.

ST – This is where UI should worry. The FG unit has been great, but the return coverage could use a jump-start, allowing 19.1 yards per KOR and a monstrous 14.1 yards per PR. PSU has one of the best return games in the land, so UI has to spend some time preparing coverage schemes. If UI can’t win the field position battle, they’ll be in deep trouble.

C – HC Ron Zook has done a fantastic job with UI, regardless of his overall record. UI is on its longest winning streak since 2001, and it’s no fluke. Zook has established himself as one of the nation’s premiere recruiters. The talent is there to make a bowl run. Defense is Zook’s forte, and can show what he’s made of this week. UI needs to play this game with a lead, but if it can’t get ahead, the tools are there to come back.

Fun Stat: UI’s defensive PPG in Zook’s first season: 39.5. UI’s defensive PPG so far this season: 18.5.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-122-3
Last Game: Lost to Michigan, 14-9
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE/LB Jerome Hayes, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, Entire O-line, HC Joe Paterno

What to look for: D – The defense was NOT that bad against Michigan last week. What are you supposed to do when you start with a 10-yard field? Or, what about an offense that can’t give you any sort of help in time of possession? The only scary thing was when UM QB Mallet pulled it down and ran for the 1Q score. But that wasn’t expected from him, and this week PSU is completely prepared for UI QB Williams’ fantastic running ability. Any chance for a win will start with making UI one-dimensional. It will be more likely that DBs King, Sargeant, Scirrotto and Davis (or Rubin) would shut down the UI pass game. If that happens, the PSU front seven can overpower UI at the line. PSU has to stay on their assignments and not over-run UI’s plays.

O – This is the interesting match up. Where does PSU’s offense go from the UM loss? This won’t be a repeat of 2005, where UI was young and inept. QB Morelli can either make or break the season with this game, and has to settle down. But the real story with PSU is whether or not it can HOLD ON TO THE FREAKING BALL! Sorry, but it was very frustrating to watch PSU fumble away the UM game. I think Paterno and his staff are pissed off at RB Scott, but while RB Kinlaw will most likely start, Scott will see action again. On the depth chart, the RB slot is listed as Scott “or” Kinlaw. It was easy to blame the PSU O-line for not allowing enough time, or not opening holes against UM, but it came down to QB Morelli having a meltdown under any sort of pressure. I don’t believe that will happen again at UI. There’s not much to say about the WR corps, other than they need to stay patient and hope PSU can get them the ball more.

ST – This week it has to fire on all cylinders. Last week, K Kelly and P Boone had a very good game, but it was the return game that suffered. UI has had one glaring weakness, and that’s allowing big returns. If the return tandem of Williams and Wallace can break one loose and give the O a short field, the special teams will have done its job. P Boone will continue to be a key element to any win, especially against and UI offense that could struggle mightily against a good PSU D and a long field.

C – The worst players on the field at UM weren’t even wearing a uniform. The PSU coaching staff, mainly Paterno, called a horrible game. Conservative won’t work against UI. PSU needs to put points on the board, fast. This offense isn’t designed for comebacks, and the coaches know that. If PSU comes out and plays like they have a goal post up their ass, they’ll lose. It starts with the play calling.

Fun Stat: PSU scoring offense first 3 games: 45 ppg. PSU scoring offense last game: 9 points. Pathetic.

GAME PREDICTION: I got ahead of myself last week, thinking PSU would score against a mediocre UM defense. They could have, but the coaches didn’t let them. This week that should change. Whether or not UI lost the Mizzou game didn’t matter. It was still a close game against an OK team. None of UI’s opponents have had a defense like PSU does. UI QB Williams will make some great plays, but also some mistakes. Those mistakes will cost UI the game. PSU’s secondary will have their best game of the season, and will finally get the stats to show. PSU will easily cover the spread, but scare some folks doing it.

PSU 28, UI 18

VEGAS:

PSU (-3) UI

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 20, UI 27