Penn State vs. Iowa, Preview

School: University of Iowa (UI), Hawkeyes
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, year, 57-46-0
Last Game: Lost to Indiana, 38-20
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 44-19 overall; 2-3 in bowls; 15-3 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DE Mitch King, LB Mike Humpal, LB Mike Klinkenborg

Key Players, Offense: QB Jake Christensen, RB Albert Young, KR/WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

What to look for: D – Don’t let the Indiana loss fool you; this defense is good. Before last week, Iowa was in the top-5 statistically in most defensive categories. Still, after allowing 322 pass yards and 73 on the ground, they’re still in the top-20 defensively. The UI run defense is the best it’s been in years, and should have no problem containing a suspect PSU run game. The front seven will be key to any success at PSU, and if DE King and LBs Humpal and Klinkenborg can harass the PSU backfield often enough, UI has a good chance in this one. UI held its first four opponents to fewer than 17 points, and still average less than 15 points per game allowed. This UI team is scarily similar to PSU: great defense, but an offense that, well…

O – …Just can’t seem to get it together in the clutch. UI rolled for 428 total yards against IU, but only managed 20 points. Sound familiar PSU fans? UI QB Christensen piled up 308 pass yards, but was sacked an unacceptable nine times. Even though IU is the nation’s leading sack team, a team like UI should let that happen, especially at home. Now, this shaky (to say the least) offense has to go on the road to arguably one of the worst places to play. RB Young ran for almost 100 (94) on a mere 15 carries last week, and with the PSU run defense struggling recently, he should find some holes. That, though depends on the O-line, which cost UI the IU game. UI has to keep Christensen upright and keep Young from getting hit before he even reaches the line of scrimmage.

ST – UI has a hidden gem in KR/WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. He’s gaining 27.6 yards a pop on kickoffs, and after watching Illinois’ Benn bolt for a TD last week, UI’s special teams should be drooling. The biggest problem for UI is that there’s no reliable FG kicker. A long time has passed since Nate Kaeding wore the Black and Gold, and current K’s Austin Signor and Daniel Murray failed to connect on either of their attempts last week. UI needs a kicking game, fast.

C – HC Ferentz is too good at what he does to let this team go down the tubes. Turnovers killed UI last week, and IU is a much improved team over what it was years ago. Watch for Ferentz and his staff to add a few wrinkles against PSU. They may be as bland as simplifying the game plan to what UI always won with: avoid mistakes! That’s easier said than done, but again, this team is more talented than its record shows, and could come up with a win this week.

Interesting Stat: UI total points allowed in first four games: 35; points allowed against IU: 38.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-123-3
Last Game: Lost to Illinois, 27-20
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, The Front Four, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, TE Andrew Quarless, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – It’s been a long time since the defense tackled as poorly as it did last week at Illinois, at least that was Jack Ham’s opinion, and we trust Jack Ham. As bad as the offense was, it was the defense (many of whom also cover kickoffs, more on that later) that allowed 21 first-half points, highlighted by Illinois WR Benn breaking about 30 tackles on his way to the end zone. This is the time when LBs Connor and Lee need to step in and hold their unit accountable, including themselves. CB King had a good game, like the rest of the secondary (in pass coverage only, again, not tackling), and has to stay on their assignments this week. UI was killed by IU’s blitzing, and there will be no excuse if PSU doesn’t do the same. UI isn’t a spread offense, and isn’t as talented as UM, so if PSU can hold down the run for the first time in two weeks, this one should be a breeze. That is, of course if…

O – The excruciatingly inconsistent offense can get its act together. There hasn’t been a game in recent history when the offense has fallen apart so badly. A look at the stats would indicate a sure win, but turnovers cost PSU at least 17 points. Like the defense, this week there is no excuse for a loss at home. While UI’s defense is good, they’re not great. QB Morelli has to use this as an opportunity to show he can handle adversity and win when it counts, and no game means more to this program right now than this one. TE Quarless had one of his worst moments (on the field, that is) ever when he dropped the TD pass last week, and has to make the most of every ball that comes his way this week. The running back situation is worse than it’s been since 2003, and if a go-to back doesn’t emerge quickly against UI, PSU will again have problems. The O-line wasn’t horrible last week, but will see better talent in UI. Getting a good push and exploding off the ball is not an option for PSU, it is critical.

ST – P Jeremy “Boom” Boone has been a rock for PSU, and if the offense gets into trouble again, he will have to bail them out, again. But everything will depend on kick coverage and tackling. I don’t’ see that as a problem this week, as UI doesn’t have a playmaker like Illinois’ Benn. KR AJ Wallace looked timid last week, but should return to form with a big return. KR/PR Williams has done his best to break free, but every return can’t be a big one. PSU may not have to rely on special teams as much this week.

C – There’s way to much to bitch about here. So I’ll keep it short. HC Paterno has to let ICOO (“In Charge Of Offense” as PSU calls it) Galen Hall do his thing. It won’t happen. Last week, the offensive staff moved the ball well, but first down runs landed them in long situations this team is not designed for. ICOD Tom Bradley probably ran his defense into the ground this week after such a poor outing, and he’ll have his unit back to form.

Interesting Stat: PSU total rushing yards allowed first three games: 53; total rushing yards allowed last two: 382

GAME PREDICTION: This is the game PSU shows up on time. Look for the first play from scrimmage to be a pass. Long, short, medium; it doesn’t matter. Even if it’s incomplete, it will make the crowd happy. If PSU comes out and runs the ball to set up the pass, PSU will lose. UI will score first, but on its first possession, which will piss off the PSU defense. QB Morelli will look average again, but not make as many mistakes, allowing his receivers to do more of the work. PSU scores 13 unanswered in the second quarter. 13-7 at halftime. UI comes out, nails a FG. But then WR Williams takes a PSU reverse for a big gain, setting up another Kelly FG. 16-10 PSU going into the fourth. Each team moves the ball, but UI settles for a FG, while PSU gets a clinching TD with five minutes left. It’ll be a boring win, but an important one.

PSU 23, UI 13

VEGAS:

PSU (-9) UI

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 27, UI 7