Penn State vs. No. 19 Wisconsin, Preview

School: University of Wisconsin (UW), Badgers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 17-2-0
Last Game: Lost to No. 18 Illinois, 31-26
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 46-19-0 overall; 3-2 in bowls; 18-1 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DL Matt Shaughnessy, LB Elijah Hodge, CB Jack Ikegwuonu

Key Players, Offense: QB Tyler Donovan, RB PJ Hill, TE Travis Beckum

What to look for: D – Illinois rolled up 289 rushing yards vs. UW, but more importantly, UW failed to generate any turnovers. If there is one way the UW defense can get PSU on its heels, pick off a few passes or jar the ball loose from QB Morelli’s butterfingers. But that’s no guarantee, as Iowa gained three turnovers vs. PSU, but failed to capitalize. CB Ikegwuonu has been quiet recently, but that could be due to opposing QBs throwing away from him. That might not be the case vs. PSU, since PSU likes using the pass to set up the run. That leads to the UW front seven. Can they stop anyone? The PSU attack won’t be spread out like Illinois, but PSU does use 3-4 WR sets often. UW missed a lot of tackles last week, and failed to get pressure on the QBs recently. DE Shaughnessy and his line have to step up against a PSU front that really came on vs. Iowa.

O – UW owned the first quarter vs. Illinois, with a 11:22-3:38 TOP advantage, but the scoreboard didn’t show it, trailing 7-0. That can’t happen at PSU. Considering RB Hill was injured early on, and backup Lance Smith can’t travel, UW ran the ball well at 4.1 yards a pop. But that’s still not good enough at PSU. Sorry folks, with a gimpy Hill, and no solid backup, UW won’t be able to run the ball against a nasty PSU front seven. But where the run game fails, QB Donovan can easily make plays. That might be easier said than done vs. PSU, since star WR Luke Swan is out for the year with a muscle tear. PSU has had trouble with the spread offense, just like UW, but this will be a traditional Big Ten match up of pro-style offenses. As much as UW can put points on the board, it hasn’t faced a defense like this yet, in front of 109,000 rocking fans.

ST – There was a significant edge for UW last week in special teams, but most of that came from Illinois’ miscues. Usually-reliable P Ken DeBauche averaged only 33.7 yards per punt, none over 50 yards and none inside the 20. PSU PR Derrick Williams is due for a big return, and if UW doesn’t watch out in the kicking game, this could be a trouble spot. UW started four drives inside the 20 vs. Illinois, and if that happens at PSU, the student section will feed off of the bad field position and give QB Donovan difficulties.

C – I think HC Beilema is a good coach, but he also stepped into a great situation. UW probably handled its coaching change better than any school in recent history. Now, after only his second loss in two years, Beilema will have to march his men into one of the worst places to play. If UW plays tight, and calls the game conservatively, they’re doomed. The staff has to let QB Donovan take some shots downfield early, even with his inexperienced WR corpse.

Interesting Stat: Wisconsin eats a lot of cheese. So, I couldn’t find anything truly intriguing.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 367-123-3
Last Game: Def. Iowa, 27-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, LB Sean Lee, Both Safeties (Davis or Rubin & Scirrotto)

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – The PSU defensive front seven will have to force UW to go to the air, which is why I listed the two PSU safeties as key defensive players this week. I have a good feeling PSU can stop UW’s power run game, pretty much because it’s not Mike Hart toting the ball. UW RB Hill is very good, but so was Brian Calhoun in 2005, when PSU held him to 20 carries and 38 yards, well below his 135-yard average coming in. So this is where the PSU safeties come in. UW has probably the best TE in the nation in Travis Beckham, and love to throw those 20-yard seam routes, which Notre Dame used in deadly fashion vs. PSU in 2006. Take away the middle of the field, and the PSU defense can force UW out of their game plan. One worry, coming out of the Iowa win, is PSU’s struggles against the 15-20 yard out and flag routes. UW will miss their star WR Luke Swan this week, but Iowa figured out PSU’s cover-2 zone last week, and now UW has the tape to look at.

O – I said last week PSU’s offense would wake up on time vs. Iowa. They did. Many are worried about QB Morelli’s two picks in Q4, but I’m not. I don’t care what he does when PSU has a 20-point lead in Q4. UW’s allowed a combined 65 points and 974 yards of total offense over the last two games. Remember, Pitt held MSU to 17 points at E. Lansing. PSU’s run game should continue its progress this week, as this is not the great UW defense from last season. ICOO Galen Hall got the ball to WR Williams last week, and has to keep it up this week. I really like that PSU is taking more shots downfield to open the game, and can take advantage of UW this week with a few deep early. They don’t even have to be completions, as long as it gets the UW front seven out of the box. HC Paterno always opens up the offense at home, and this week should be no different. This offense can be night and day, depending on where they’re playing.

ST – PSU hasn’t had a kicking game this good in many years. K Kevin Kelly has missed a few, but none of which cost PSU a game. Frosh P Jeremy “Boom” Boone has made many quickly forget just how good former P Jeremy Kapinos was, and that’s tough to do. Boone averages more than 44 yards per punt, frequently downing them inside the 20. If PSU wants to give UW fits, land a few kicks inside the 10. Field position won the game for PSU vs. Iowa, and will decide the game vs. UW.

C – It’s about freaking time. But should we expect anything other than tight play calling on the road, and wide open at home? I really don’t care what the PSU coaching staff does this week, as long as it comes close to the Iowa game plan. The defense was probably run ragged last week in practice after all of the missed tackles vs. Illinois, and this week, they won’t let up. The offensive must be allowed to use its talent, and the staff did that last week. Get the balls to the playmakers (but please, no bubble screens!), and UW won’t stop PSU.

Interesting Stat: PSU vs. Opponents point totals by quarter, Games 1-6 - Quarters 1 & 4: PSU 69, Opp. 69; Quarters 2 & 3: PSU 122, Opp. 13.

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 24, UW 16

VEGAS:

PSU (-6.5) UW

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 38, UW 7