Preview: No. 6 Penn State at No. 24 Wisconsin

Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 11. 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Mild, Cloudy.

Host: Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 4-2 (0-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs No. 14 Ohio State, 20-17
Injuries: LT Gabe Carimi (knee - doubtful), TE Garrett Graham (foot - probable), WR Maurice Moore (groin - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB P.J. Hill, QB Allan Evridge; (defense) LB DeAndre Levy, DL Matt Shaughnessy
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 3rd season at Wisconsin, 25-7 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 210.6 rush/185.4 pass/28.8 points per game
Defense - 123.6 rush/186.2 pass/17.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why Wisconsin will win -- Camp Randall Stadium will be rocking. It's one of the most raucous environments in sports, and that's just in the daytime. The Wisconsin fans will be well-oiled and ready to roll come game time, and the Badger defense could feed off it. On top of all that, if the Wisconsin band is allowed to play--they were suspended for "partying" too much--the fans should be even louder. Penn State has been horrible on the road since 1999, and hasn't won in Madison since 2002, by only a field goal. Wisconsin's running backs can move the pile. If either P.J. Hill or budding star John Clay get hot, expect Bielema to keep going to them. It will be up to the Wisconsin running game to keep the ball away from Penn State. The offensive line isn't quite as good as past Badger fronts, but they're still pretty damn good.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-0 (2-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Purdue, 20-6
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable), WR Jordan Norwood (leg - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) LB Josh Hull, DT Jared Odrick
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 378-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 256.7 rush/243 pass/44.8 points per game
Defense - 80.2 rush/170.2 pass/11.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why PSU will win -- It hasn't rocked like this since 1994. Penn State's offense is just steamrolling every team they face. And the scary part about last week's 20-6 score at Purdue, is that the only thing to slow PSU was the field. Daryll Clark has been scary accurate, and the running game with Royster and Stephfon Green has been unstoppable. Couple that with three of the best wide receivers ever to play at PSU--oh yeah, and Jordan Norwood is expected to return this week--and Wisconsin fans are having nightmares all week. The mental factor will play strongly in this game. Wisconsin is lower than sludge right now, and Penn State has to take advantage of that. If Penn State gets the ball first and scores a touchdown, or the defense forces Wisconsin to punt on the first drive, it could be all over for the Badgers.

What will happen -- You'll see a much better showing out of Wisconsin than the pundits--myself included--have been saying. It will really depend on the crowd. Penn State fans know what a good fan base can do for a team in a big game, and the Lions are expecting the worst this week. Wisconsin will come out and hang tight with Penn State through the first half, but Clark and Royster will take over in the third quarter. If you want to beat Penn State, you have to match every score, and get a few cheap points. It won't happen this week. Penn State will give up a few scores to Wisconsin, but the Badgers won't be able to keep pace.

Prediction: No. 6 Penn State, 34 - No. 24 Wisconsin, 20

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Reviews: ND-PU, UW chokes at UM

Games I watched from 3:30-7 p.m.:
Notre Dame-Purdue (NBC)
Michigan-Wisconsin (ESPN)

Michigan 27, No. 8 Wisconsin 25
Badger head coach Bret Bielema never lost with a half-time lead--until today. Michigan stormed back from 19 points down, scoring 27 unanswered second-half points. This Wolverines team totaled 21 total yards--yes, total yards--threw the first two periods. But I'm not sure which team came out of the locker room for the third quarter. The UM defense was decent, but really came on late, including a pick-six to put the Wolves up by one in the fourth. Let's be realistic about all this, though. Wisconsin stopped playing, just as much as Michigan woke up. The Badgers settled in on their lead and fell asleep. Sure, they had a good run at the end, but there was no excuse for blowing a 19-7 lead after three quarters. Expect this game to be replayed years from now as a Big Ten's Greatest Games, and really shakes things up in the Big Ten.

Notre Dame 38, Purdue 21
The Irish win today could signal the turning point this program needed under Charlie Weis. I'm not completely sold on Notre Dame yet, but they really took it to Purdue, especially in the second half. Curtis Painter had a good day statistically, but the offense as a whole never got into a good rhythm. That was partly due to John Tenuta's blitzing ND defense, but the Boilermakers should be better than that. Last week's win over Central Michigan looks more like a stroke of luck now.

*Late tonight: No. 12 Penn State vs. No. 21 Illinois.

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First Look: Wisconsin Badgers

If you want to find a grossly under-appreciated football team, look no further than Madison, Wisconsin. Since 2004, the Badgers have gone 40-11 and played in FOUR straight New Years Day bowls against SEC opponents (UW went 2-2). What more does this program have to do to prove its national worth? Because of some really dumb BCS rules, Wisconsin was left out of the at-large picture in 2006, even with its 11-1 record and an upset of Arkansas in the Capital One Bowl. Under Coach Bret Bielema, Wisconsin is looking more like the Badgers of the ‘90s. Hopefully for them, those ‘90s Rose Bowl wins will come again soon, too.

1. An ideal succession -- There hasn’t been a smoother transition from one coach to another than at Wisconsin. Barry Alvarez will go down as one of the game’s all-time great head coaches, and it looks like another one will follow right after. Bret Bielema seems to have actually improved the football program overall since Alvarez left in 2005, going 21-5 his first two campaigns and two January bowl games. Granted, it will take a lot for Bielema to bypass Alvarez in terms of career accomplishments, but he’s at least on the right track. Bielema is committed to maintaining Wisconsin’s smash-mouth style of football (which doesn’t mean “slow,” SEC fans), and one can argue there’s no need to change anything in the future.

2. The “‘backs” are back -- Under Alvarez, Wisconsin had been known for running the ball right down your throat, but the last few seasons of his tenure, production began to dip at the position. Then came in Brian Calhoun who blew up for more than 1600 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in 2005. No one was sure what would happen once Calhoun declared early for the NFL. Frosh running back PJ Hill quelled any anxiety, rumbling for 2781 yards the past two seasons. In 2008, the Badgers will lean on his talent more than ever with the departure of senior quarterback Tyler Donovan. Allen Evridge transferred from Kansas St. (was beat out by Donovan in ’06), and has some experience in Bielema’s system. But with guys like John Clay, Lance Smith and Zach Brown, don’t be surprised if Wisconsin uses a full three-deep running back rotation in ’08.

3. It’ll be a rockin’ Camp Randall -- Playing at Michigan, then home against Ohio State and Penn State in three straight weeks will give even the toughest teams headaches. Fortunately for Wisconsin, it’s tough enough to at least get through two of those games. I really doubt 3-0, but anything is possible when your team plays in one of the wildest environments in all college football. Other games to watch for will be at Fresno State, Michigan State, and at home against an Illinois team that upset the then-No. 5 Badgers in 2007. Wisconsin hasn’t gone undefeated in Big Ten play in, well, a really long time, and I don’t see 2008 being any different. However, getting through with only one conference loss, and Wisconsin could land itself in a BCS game.


Next week’s First Look: Michigan Wolverines (Homecoming)

-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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Article of the day

The Big Eleventh is easily one of my favorite Big Ten blogs. Don't ask me why, because I couldn't tell you exactly. Just go with it, and read this article about Joe Tiller's successor and the situation in West Lafayette. This is, in my own mind, one of the most underreported situations in college football today. Considering Tiller revolutionized northern football when he installed his "basketball on grass" in 1997, him getting the boot at Purdue is huge. That program was one of the most consistent in the '90s and 2000s, and what does he get for that? "Sorry, but we're looking for more." What? Purdue is now expecting to become Oklahoma, USC or even Penn State? Get real, you're known as the "Spoilermakers" for a reason. With that rant, I give you this fantastic article of the day:

If You Can't Beat Them, Fire Them.

That's the new Big Ten mandate, problem is only Ohio State is 'beating them', oh, and this doesn't apply to Penn State.

Purdue is set to announce Eastern Kentucky coach Danny Hope as Joe Tiller's successor. This isn't a Bobby Bowden-Jimbo Fisher successor plan, or even a Barry Alvarez-Bret Bielema deal. No, this is much more like "you're out old man, and since we like you we'll allow you to hang on for one more year."

This story has been totally overlooked by the major media outlets, mostly do to the MNC and other, more soap opera like coaching searches. That and the fact that no one ever really bought into the whole "Basketball on Grass" thing. Anyway, I started following it Tuesday over at Boiled Sports. For most of the week the lead candidate was Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst...which lead to a series of predictable yet hilarious Christ Jokes.

By most accounts Chryst was nervous about "not being a Purdue guy" the way Hope is. There was also concern that his whimpy girly mustach wouldn't hold up at a place like Purdue. The people printing the "You may have God, but we have Chryst!" Notre Dame game t-shirts took a huge hit when the announcement was made (credit on the t-shirt joke must of course go to Boiled Sports).

But this leads to a bigger issue, or trend I suppose I should say, that is taking hold around the Big Ten: everyone seems to be getting a new coach:

Illinois: Coach Ron Zook, hired 2005
Indiana: Coach Bill Lynch, hired 2007*
Iowa: Coach Kirk Ferentz, hired 1998
Michigan: Coach Rich Rodriguez, hired 2008
Michigan State: Coach Mark Dantonio, hired 2007
Minnesota: Coach Tim Brewster, hired 2007
Northwestern: Coach Pat Fitzgerald, hired 2006*
Ohio State: Coach Jim Tressel, hired 2001
Penn State: Coach Joe Paterno, hired 1966
Purdue: Coach Joe Tiller, out in 2009
Wisconsin: Coach Bret Bielema, hired 2006

This is really amazing when you sit down and look at it. Excluding JoePa, that is an average stay of 2.7 years. By most accounts, you really aren't even coaching you own team until after the third season. There are exactly four coaches** (Paterno, Tressel, Ferentz, and just now Zook) who are coaching Juniors and Seniors they recruited.

So what does this all mean? Well, for one thing, its not that surprising that the bottom half of the Big Ten sucks right now. It is filled with schools right in the shitty middle part of a coaching change. You have players recruited for one style forced to play another. The heart of the squad is made up of the always weak 'tweener' class that was recruited during the change.

Secondly, the Big Ten isn't in that much trouble if they can stay more competitive than the ACC, Big East and probably the Big XII with seven brand new coaches.

Finally, there is something a little more subtle that I worry about. Once these guys gain their footing, establish their recruiting lines and solidify their systems...well that will be right about the time Penn State goes through what will probably be the biggest circus of a coaching change in the history of sports. If we learned anything this year it's that neither Paterno nor the Penn State admins have a fucking clue how to handle it. Things might not be ugly, but they aren't going to be neat and clean. We are setting the successor up against some lofty odds. The "I want to play for Paterno thing" disappears. The stability of the other 10 programs will be used as a tool against us. I don't want to say I'm worried, but I am ready for it to be over with.

*I do understand it was tragity and now a decision to get new coaches for these schools.
**Yes, Tiller is still the coach, but he's a lame duck and that team kind of sucks right now anyway.

Later today or tomorrow morning, I'll try to have something up about how Penn State's recruiting class is looking so far for 2008.

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Penn State vs. No. 19 Wisconsin, Preview

School: University of Wisconsin (UW), Badgers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 17-2-0
Last Game: Lost to No. 18 Illinois, 31-26
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 46-19-0 overall; 3-2 in bowls; 18-1 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DL Matt Shaughnessy, LB Elijah Hodge, CB Jack Ikegwuonu

Key Players, Offense: QB Tyler Donovan, RB PJ Hill, TE Travis Beckum

What to look for: D – Illinois rolled up 289 rushing yards vs. UW, but more importantly, UW failed to generate any turnovers. If there is one way the UW defense can get PSU on its heels, pick off a few passes or jar the ball loose from QB Morelli’s butterfingers. But that’s no guarantee, as Iowa gained three turnovers vs. PSU, but failed to capitalize. CB Ikegwuonu has been quiet recently, but that could be due to opposing QBs throwing away from him. That might not be the case vs. PSU, since PSU likes using the pass to set up the run. That leads to the UW front seven. Can they stop anyone? The PSU attack won’t be spread out like Illinois, but PSU does use 3-4 WR sets often. UW missed a lot of tackles last week, and failed to get pressure on the QBs recently. DE Shaughnessy and his line have to step up against a PSU front that really came on vs. Iowa.

O – UW owned the first quarter vs. Illinois, with a 11:22-3:38 TOP advantage, but the scoreboard didn’t show it, trailing 7-0. That can’t happen at PSU. Considering RB Hill was injured early on, and backup Lance Smith can’t travel, UW ran the ball well at 4.1 yards a pop. But that’s still not good enough at PSU. Sorry folks, with a gimpy Hill, and no solid backup, UW won’t be able to run the ball against a nasty PSU front seven. But where the run game fails, QB Donovan can easily make plays. That might be easier said than done vs. PSU, since star WR Luke Swan is out for the year with a muscle tear. PSU has had trouble with the spread offense, just like UW, but this will be a traditional Big Ten match up of pro-style offenses. As much as UW can put points on the board, it hasn’t faced a defense like this yet, in front of 109,000 rocking fans.

ST – There was a significant edge for UW last week in special teams, but most of that came from Illinois’ miscues. Usually-reliable P Ken DeBauche averaged only 33.7 yards per punt, none over 50 yards and none inside the 20. PSU PR Derrick Williams is due for a big return, and if UW doesn’t watch out in the kicking game, this could be a trouble spot. UW started four drives inside the 20 vs. Illinois, and if that happens at PSU, the student section will feed off of the bad field position and give QB Donovan difficulties.

C – I think HC Beilema is a good coach, but he also stepped into a great situation. UW probably handled its coaching change better than any school in recent history. Now, after only his second loss in two years, Beilema will have to march his men into one of the worst places to play. If UW plays tight, and calls the game conservatively, they’re doomed. The staff has to let QB Donovan take some shots downfield early, even with his inexperienced WR corpse.

Interesting Stat: Wisconsin eats a lot of cheese. So, I couldn’t find anything truly intriguing.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 367-123-3
Last Game: Def. Iowa, 27-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, LB Sean Lee, Both Safeties (Davis or Rubin & Scirrotto)

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – The PSU defensive front seven will have to force UW to go to the air, which is why I listed the two PSU safeties as key defensive players this week. I have a good feeling PSU can stop UW’s power run game, pretty much because it’s not Mike Hart toting the ball. UW RB Hill is very good, but so was Brian Calhoun in 2005, when PSU held him to 20 carries and 38 yards, well below his 135-yard average coming in. So this is where the PSU safeties come in. UW has probably the best TE in the nation in Travis Beckham, and love to throw those 20-yard seam routes, which Notre Dame used in deadly fashion vs. PSU in 2006. Take away the middle of the field, and the PSU defense can force UW out of their game plan. One worry, coming out of the Iowa win, is PSU’s struggles against the 15-20 yard out and flag routes. UW will miss their star WR Luke Swan this week, but Iowa figured out PSU’s cover-2 zone last week, and now UW has the tape to look at.

O – I said last week PSU’s offense would wake up on time vs. Iowa. They did. Many are worried about QB Morelli’s two picks in Q4, but I’m not. I don’t care what he does when PSU has a 20-point lead in Q4. UW’s allowed a combined 65 points and 974 yards of total offense over the last two games. Remember, Pitt held MSU to 17 points at E. Lansing. PSU’s run game should continue its progress this week, as this is not the great UW defense from last season. ICOO Galen Hall got the ball to WR Williams last week, and has to keep it up this week. I really like that PSU is taking more shots downfield to open the game, and can take advantage of UW this week with a few deep early. They don’t even have to be completions, as long as it gets the UW front seven out of the box. HC Paterno always opens up the offense at home, and this week should be no different. This offense can be night and day, depending on where they’re playing.

ST – PSU hasn’t had a kicking game this good in many years. K Kevin Kelly has missed a few, but none of which cost PSU a game. Frosh P Jeremy “Boom” Boone has made many quickly forget just how good former P Jeremy Kapinos was, and that’s tough to do. Boone averages more than 44 yards per punt, frequently downing them inside the 20. If PSU wants to give UW fits, land a few kicks inside the 10. Field position won the game for PSU vs. Iowa, and will decide the game vs. UW.

C – It’s about freaking time. But should we expect anything other than tight play calling on the road, and wide open at home? I really don’t care what the PSU coaching staff does this week, as long as it comes close to the Iowa game plan. The defense was probably run ragged last week in practice after all of the missed tackles vs. Illinois, and this week, they won’t let up. The offensive must be allowed to use its talent, and the staff did that last week. Get the balls to the playmakers (but please, no bubble screens!), and UW won’t stop PSU.

Interesting Stat: PSU vs. Opponents point totals by quarter, Games 1-6 - Quarters 1 & 4: PSU 69, Opp. 69; Quarters 2 & 3: PSU 122, Opp. 13.

GAME PREDICTION:

PSU 24, UW 16

VEGAS:

PSU (-6.5) UW

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 38, UW 7

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