No. 22 Penn State vs. Michigan St., Preview

School: Michigan State University (MSU), Spartans
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Mark D’Antonio, 24-22 overall
Last Game: Defeated Purdue, 48-31
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 26-34 overall; 0-1 in bowls; 12-7 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DE Jonal Saint-Dic, CB Otis Wiley, LB Kendell Davis-Clark

Key Players, Offense: RB Javon Ringer, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, WR Devin Thomas

What to look for: D – This really depends on which MSU defense decides to show up this week. This unit has the playmakers in guys like Saint-Dic (14 TFL, 10 Sks, 8 FF) and Wiley (4 INT), but lacks consistency to come up big when the team needs it. Against Michigan, they couldn’t prevent the long passes mixed with Mike Hart’s running. MSU is giving up a mediocre 351 ypg and 26 ppg, and has to have one of its better days against PSU to win. Getting pressure on the PSU passing game is a must, even if it doesn’t generate sacks. Forcing early throws and getting PSU out of its rhythm is essential. MSU can’t allow PSU to establish its short passing game to set up the run, as it’s done in most of the 8 wins. PSU has been suspect to turnovers, and that falls right into MSU’s lap. Get a few of those, and this one could get ugly, for once in MSU’s favor.

O – There’s no questioning MSU’s ability to put up points, but against the only really good defense it’s faced in 2007–OSU–it managed only 3 points. This won’t be a repeat of the 2006 game, where MSU QB Brian Hoyer threw 61 passes for 291 yards. D’Antonio is an old fashioned Big Ten coach with a modern twist. MSU is averaging 200 rush ypg and 221 pass ypg, one of the most balanced attacks in the nation, but the key will be the run game versus PSU’s front seven. Ringer (1298 rush yards) and Caulcrick (20 rush TDs) have been ramming it down opponent’s throats all year, and MSU needs them to keep the offense balanced. The only way to crack PSU’s defensive brick wall is to tire it out with first downs and more first downs. While the run game is a key factor for MSU, using it to set up the pass will only work if guys like Thomas can get the ball enough. He’s quietly been one of the best WRs in the conference with 1087 receiving yards and 168 rushing yards in 2007. Oh yeah, and he’s also really good at…

ST – returning kickoffs. MSU leads the conference in kickoff returns at 28.9 ypr, which bodes well against PSU, which has been suspect against good returnmen. The best thing MSU can hope for is solid play on both return units and coverage teams, with a big play or two from Thomas. In 2005, a blocked punt in the end zone broke the game open in PSU’s favor. Playing smart special teams might be the deciding factor in this one.

C – In 2003, when John L. Smith led MSU to a bowl game, there was renewed optimism around the program, but this is different now with D’Antonio. Smith brought excitement and flash, but D’Antonio has brought quiet confidence and discipline, something MSU desperately needed. The MSU coaches have the tools to beat PSU, but can they use them effectively enough to get this one in the W column?

Interesting Stat: MSU defensive ppg in 6 wins: 20; ppg in 5 losses: 34.2.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 372-123-3
Last Game: Def. Temple, 31-0
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE Maurice Evans, DT Phil Taylor

Key Players, Offense: RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams, OTs Dennis Landolt and Gerald Cadogan

What to look for: D – Stop the run, plain and simple. Turning MSU one-dimensional should almost guarantee a win. PSU needs a huge game from the front seven, and more importantly, the front four. Taylor has been emerging as a big-time player, and his ability to get into the backfield before the runner can get to the line will be a huge factor this week. When MSU decides to pass, PSU can’t give Hoyer any time. Evans and Josh Gaines have to play big and get in Hoyer’s face. Don’t give MSU time, or you’re dead. Connor has become the best LB in the country, hands down, and can nearly lock up his awards with a good showing and a win this week. Although the PSU secondary has been playing a bit lax lately, I don’t expect them to have much trouble, as this whole game is about stopping the run. If PSU gets a lead, the defense has to play like every down is their last. Don’t give MSU an inch until the final whistle.

O – Don’t turn the ball over, Anthony Morelli. A fumble on the one-yard line against Temple had the PSU fans grimacing, but everyone knew it wouldn’t matter in that game. Well, against MSU, that kind of mistake will matter. PSU has had some trouble pass protecting, but the run blocking has been more than solid. That’s a bit deceiving, as PSU does much better when using the pass to set up the run. Kinlaw had the game of his life against a pretty bad team, but can really cement his legacy this week. Another career day came in the form of Williams’ 100 yard receiving yards. I’m not sure why it took so long, but he’s finally gotten the ball more where he can make a difference. He has to keep up his stellar play and break a few big ones against MSU. But the biggest match up will be the PSU OTs against Saint-Dic. Neutralizing his pass rush could save the day for PSU.

ST – What’s happened to PSU’s return game? I know, it’s not too bad, but it was supposed to be one of the best in the nation. The only big play this season came in week two against Notre Dame. Otherwise, the return men haven’t made that much of a difference. Williams is hot, and he can gain huge momentum going into the bowl game if he can launch a big return against MSU. This could be a low-scoring game, and a spark from the return game could make the difference.

C – Don’t get tight. The PSU staff has to get the ball to the playmakers. If Williams doesn’t touch the ball at least 12 times, there’s a problem. The play calling was good enough last week to beat Temple, but can the staff get enough going to beat a Big Ten team coming off a good win over 7-4 Purdue?

Interesting Stat: PSU is 11-3 against MSU since joining the Big Ten in 1993, but all three losses were in Spartan Stadium. Most of the time, PSU got embarrassed, 49-14 in 1997, 35-28 in 1999 and 41-10 in 2003. Sorry, I know, but PSU has to be careful this week.

GAME PREDICTION: I’d really like to see this one turn into a slugfest, the kind PSU loves to play. If it comes down to defenses, PSU’s should be able to hold its own against an inconsistent MSU offense. Look for a boring game through he first half; with either team possibly holding a slim lead. It’s really hard to call this one, as I don’t know if PSU will take advantage of its talent on offense. If PSU plays loose and smart, they can secure another 9-win season. If PSU comes out flat, and allows MSU to get a few energizing plays, a trip to the Champs Sports Bowl is almost certain for 2007. I think MSU will keep it very close, if not lead into the second half, but PSU has just too much talent to lose. Kinlaw gets another big day. Williams scores a TD. MSU logs less than 350 yards of offense, most of which comes in the first half.

PSU 27, MSU 23

VEGAS:

PSU (-2) MSU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 31, MSU 35