The Enlightened Spartan talks PSU-MSU

I don't have to tell you this, but there's a big game in State College this weekend. No. 8 Penn State will host No. 15 Michigan State for the Big Ten Championship. Scott, The Enlightened Spartan, was good enough to stop by Zombie Nation. He answered some questions, and I returned the favor, so be sure to stop by ES, too.

1. Let's get right into it. What's your head going through right now? Did you think Michigan State would be in this position, heading into the last week of the season? Sum up the season for us?

ES: The master plan for Spartan Football is coming together.... finally... it only took 40 years. Seriously, the ES is sitting on Cloud Nine. To be listed in the BCS, to have a chance to win the automatic BCS berth, to have a chance at the Rose Bowl in year two under Dantonio? Actually, the ES predicted a 9-3 season for the Spartans, but yes, I'm shocked they've actually pulled it off. Sum up the season: POUND GREEN POUND. Vanilla offense + a disciplined defense + few mistakes + focus on fundamentals = victory. MSU coaches have game planned very well for most of the season. The team's offensive attack is an old school brand of smash mouth, hard hitting football that would make Woody Hayes and Duffy Daugherty proud. The Spartan defense tackles very well and doesn't give up many big plays. Season highs - pounding Michigan and Notre Dame into submission. And, the road trip to Cal was excellent; MSU must schedule Cal on a regular basis as an excuse to hit San Francisco. Season low - learning MSU really is the third best team in the conference by being dominated and outclassed by Ohio State.

2. Penn State and Michigan State have never had so much riding on their annual "rivalry" game. Never has this game meant a Big Ten Championship for whoever wins. What's the overall mood among Michigan State fans, and if you can say, the team?

ES: Opportunity. Excitement. Amazement. Joy.

3. We all know about Javon Ringer, so tell us Penn State fans something we may not know about Michigan State, that could really turn the tide Saturday for the Spartans.

ES: A - MSU badly needs the return of Mark Dell so we can actually have a reliable receiver who can catch. If Mark Dell and Blair White hold onto the ball, especially on third down throws, MSU has a chance. The Spartan wideouts have been horrible in his absence, yet MSU continues to find ways to victory. B - OL Jesse Miller. Miller has been beat badly on pass blocking the last two games, against Wisconsin and Purdue. He's a solid run blocker, but his legs just aren't fast enough to stop opposing defensive ends in passing situations. We need him to help keep the Lions off QB Brian Hoyer... or it will be a long day.

4. What is it about Penn State that worries you the most going into Saturday?

ES: Penn State's run defense bothers the shit out of me. I don't know how Iowa did it, but MSU has gotta do the same. MSU needs to take time, to move the football and control the clock. With MSU's questionable passing and catching, it needs to be deliberate and run the ball. Without a run game, it's toast.

5. This game should eclipse the annual "oh my God, it's Michigan and Ohio State!" love-fest. As someone who hates both those teams, I'm very happy about that. But what does it mean, as a Spartans fan watching Michigan founder, to take away what could possibly be the only thing (the luster of that OSU/UM rivalry game) the Wolverines have left right now?

ES: The only reason this is getting any ink is because you asked; it ain't worth writing about. I hate the annual "Oh My God, Love Me Love Me Hugs and Kisses" Ohio State-Michigan rivalry: their shit don't stink. The boredom of the historic Woody-Bo clashes are thankfully a distant memory. scUM and OSU can have their rivalry and shove it up their pie holes.

6. Anything else you want to rant or talk about, let'er rip.

ES: I'm hopeful that with the extra bye week, MSU will get into Happy Valley with their "A" game and not lay an egg. I pray that Dantonio has focused on fundamentals and a solid game plan. No trick plays are necessary vs Joe Pa. We need to tackle well and be deliberate on offense. We need to catch Hoyer's passes. If we can force a few turnovers, we have a chance. I don't expect a disaster a la Ohio State. It will be a great game.

...I'm sure it will be!

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Preview: No. 8 Penn State vs No. 15 Michigan State

Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 22. 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Weather Forecast: Very Cold, Mostly Cloudy w/Snow Flurries.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 10-1 (6-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Indiana, 34-7
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S
Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz
(knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT
Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 382-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 218.3 rush/224.4 pass/39.4 points per game
Defense - 101.5 rush/157.2 pass/11.9 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)

Why PSU will win -- Michigan State has been good, but not very impressive this season. The Spartans were blown out at home by Ohio State (9-2), 45-7, and nearly lost to Wisconsin (6-5) in East Lansing. Probably the best win so far was the 37-20 win over Northwestern (8-3) in Evanston. They were able to squeak by Iowa (7-4) by 3 at home, but that was before the Hawkeyes' recent revival. Penn State has been great this season in big games–the Iowa games wasn't viewed as a big game by PSU, whether they tell you that or not, thus the letdown–having pummeled Wisconsin 48-7 in Madison, and beating Ohio State in the Horseshoe. Penn State still leads the conference in offensive ppg and defensive ppg, while Michigan State has scored only 6.4 ppg more than opponents (26.9-19.5). I very much like the matchup between the Penn State run game (see team stats) versus the Michigan State run defense. And on the flip-side, I also like Penn State holding down the Michigan State run game. Even though Javon Ringer leads the world in rushing attempts and was the best in yardage, he's been the entire MSU rushing attack, which still ranks ninth in the Big Ten. In freezing weather, the better defense usually wins. As far as playing in Beaver Stadium, this should be the loudest crowd MSU has faced all season long, and should make the difference for Penn State's chances.

Visitor: Michigan State Spartans
Record: 9-2 (6-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Purdue (Nov. 8), 21-7
Injuries: DB Chris Rucker (leg - questionable), WR Mark Dell (N/A -
questionable), OL Arthur Ray (leg - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Javon Ringer, QB Brian Hoyer; (defense) LB
Greg Jones, S Otis Wiley
Head Coach: Mark D'Antonio, 2nd season at MSU, 16-8; 5th overall, 34-25
Season Statistics:
Offense - 147.8 rush/207.4 pass/26.9 points per game
Defense - 148.5 rush/191.4 pass/19.5 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why MSU will win -- This is the best Spartans team fielded since Nick Saban was head coach. Ringer leads the conference in all-purpose yardage, and is arguably more difficult to tackle than Mike Hart was at Michigan. Although Michigan State has allowed opponents more trips into the red zone than PSU, the Spartans have held teams to a conference-best 74.3 percent conversion rate. In what could turn into a close, every-point-matters game, forcing a turnover in the red zone will be a top priority for MSU. Penn State hasn't been playing well the last few outings, including the win at Ohio State. It took an incredibly clean game (0 penalties, 0 turnovers) by PSU to beat the Buckeyes, and you can almost count on a few mistakes this week. Michigan State is catching Penn State at the perfect time, as PSU is still getting over the Iowa letdown, and didn't play up to speed against a horrible Indiana (3-8) team. The Spartans could really throw a wrench into the Penn State attack by getting in Daryll Clark's head. And Otis Wiley is the man to do it, as he is second in the Big Ten in interceptions (4), and one pick-six. Michigan State wants to give its offense short fields, and to keep the Penn State crowd out of this game. That's where one or two turnovers could swing it for the Spartans.

What will happen -- The early spread is about two touchdowns, PSU (-14) over MSU. When Vegas lays a line that wide, they're usually telling us it will be a blowout. I don't think so. There is the very real chance that the Penn State team we saw in September and October show up and jump Michigan State, but I just don't see it happening. These aren't the Spartans of John L. Smith. These guys are like soldiers who shut up and do their job, and do it well. Penn State will have to play on its 'A' game, and should be able to beat Michigan State. There's no way the Nittany Lions lose at home in what could be Joe Paterno's final great season at Penn State.*

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 31 - No. 15 Michigan State 20

*No, I don't mean that to sound like Joe will retire or leave. I mean that this could be the last time he could win 11 games. We don't know what will happen next year, so this year's team has to play like it's the last hurrah.

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First Look: Michigan State Spartans

There’s a team up north that is ready to blow up. No, it’s not Wisconsin. Nor is it Michigan. Why, it’s lowly old Michigan State. I’m not sure why, but I’ve hopped on the MSU bandwagon this season. No wait, I do know why. John L. Smith was the worst thing to happen in East Lansing since, well, there’s not much worse. He had a lot of flash, but was a bit too looney for the Spartans. Then in comes Mark D’Antonio. Former Ohio State defensive coordinator, former Michigan State assistant, fantastic head coach at Cincinnati. But most importantly, Michigan State is finding its identity once again. Punching opponents with the running game, playing disciplined defense, and led by a senior quarterback, this team is on the verge of something big in 2008.

1. Wait, is that Bill Bel... naahhh -- Mark D’Antonio never smiles. That’s a good thing for MSU. I haven’t seen a turnaround in team attitude like this since I started following college football. Under John L., MSU was all over the place with no direction. Quite the opposite under D’Antonio. In his first season, he managed to take a down-trodden program, known for its late-season implosions, and push them hard enough to reach the post season. No coach of the year awards, no fancy offense along the way. MSU did it by strapping it on and playing until the final whistle sounded each week. Sometimes that wasn’t enough (Michigan meltdown?), but other times, it worked like a charm (Penn State’s meltdown vs. MSU?). Almost half of MSU’s losses were within a touchdown. If D’Antonio can keep his players believing that MSU is no longer the little brother in Michigan (even though MSU lost in ’07), those close losses will turn into wins.

2. Ball catchers, anyone? -- All the parts would have been there for a fantastic offense, if WR Devin Thomas didn’t bolt early for the NFL and TE Kellen Davis had another year of eligibility. But, Thomas did, and Davis didn’t. So where does that put MSU going into 2008? Just fine. QB Brian Hoyer threw for 2725 yards and 20 touchdowns in ’07, and has the ability to match those numbers again, even without his primary targets from last season. Of course, this will largely depend on the production MSU gets out of senior RB Javon Ringer (1447 yds/6 tds ’07). Without bruising FB Jehuu Caulcrick (872 yds/21 tds ’07), can Ringer carry the load along? There’s no reason he should have trouble as the main guy. The offensive line is very solid, and should open enough holes. Yet if there’s one side of the ball no one will be paying attention to, even though they should be, is the defense. This is much more experienced that first thought going into ’08. The secondary returns three starters and the linebackers are quick and smart. Those two units were the cause for frustration last year, but should impress this season.

3. Schedule “Bears” down -- I’ve already called for Michigan State to pull the stunner at Cal to open the season. We’ll see how that one goes. But there’s much more to the ’08 slate than meets the eye. Even the two lightweights, Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic could give MSU fits. Ok, so maybe EMU won’t be so bad, but you know D’Antonio’s staff is quietly worrying about FAU. There are no breaks for MSU this year. Following Cal, EMU, and FAU, is a visit from Notre Dame. Away at a very dangerous Indiana team, homecoming against Iowa, then at Northwestern, all look like winnable games before the big showdown with Ohio State in East Lansing. Depending how that first stretch goes, MSU could actually be favored going to Ann Arbor the next week. If the Spartans don’t secure a bowl bid by that game, it could get ugly. MSU has to wrap up the season against Wisconsin and Purdue, then travel to a revenge-hungry Penn State crowd, where MSU hasn’t won since PSU joined the Big Ten.

Next week's First Look: Penn State's Bowl Options

-First Look: Indiana Hoosiers
-First Look: Iowa Hawkeyes
-First Look: Ohio State Buckeyes
-First Look: Michigan Wolverines
-First Look: Wisconsin Badgers
-First Look: Purdue Boilermakers
-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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No. 22 Penn State vs. Michigan St., Preview

School: Michigan State University (MSU), Spartans
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Mark D’Antonio, 24-22 overall
Last Game: Defeated Purdue, 48-31
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 26-34 overall; 0-1 in bowls; 12-7 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: DE Jonal Saint-Dic, CB Otis Wiley, LB Kendell Davis-Clark

Key Players, Offense: RB Javon Ringer, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, WR Devin Thomas

What to look for: D – This really depends on which MSU defense decides to show up this week. This unit has the playmakers in guys like Saint-Dic (14 TFL, 10 Sks, 8 FF) and Wiley (4 INT), but lacks consistency to come up big when the team needs it. Against Michigan, they couldn’t prevent the long passes mixed with Mike Hart’s running. MSU is giving up a mediocre 351 ypg and 26 ppg, and has to have one of its better days against PSU to win. Getting pressure on the PSU passing game is a must, even if it doesn’t generate sacks. Forcing early throws and getting PSU out of its rhythm is essential. MSU can’t allow PSU to establish its short passing game to set up the run, as it’s done in most of the 8 wins. PSU has been suspect to turnovers, and that falls right into MSU’s lap. Get a few of those, and this one could get ugly, for once in MSU’s favor.

O – There’s no questioning MSU’s ability to put up points, but against the only really good defense it’s faced in 2007–OSU–it managed only 3 points. This won’t be a repeat of the 2006 game, where MSU QB Brian Hoyer threw 61 passes for 291 yards. D’Antonio is an old fashioned Big Ten coach with a modern twist. MSU is averaging 200 rush ypg and 221 pass ypg, one of the most balanced attacks in the nation, but the key will be the run game versus PSU’s front seven. Ringer (1298 rush yards) and Caulcrick (20 rush TDs) have been ramming it down opponent’s throats all year, and MSU needs them to keep the offense balanced. The only way to crack PSU’s defensive brick wall is to tire it out with first downs and more first downs. While the run game is a key factor for MSU, using it to set up the pass will only work if guys like Thomas can get the ball enough. He’s quietly been one of the best WRs in the conference with 1087 receiving yards and 168 rushing yards in 2007. Oh yeah, and he’s also really good at…

ST – returning kickoffs. MSU leads the conference in kickoff returns at 28.9 ypr, which bodes well against PSU, which has been suspect against good returnmen. The best thing MSU can hope for is solid play on both return units and coverage teams, with a big play or two from Thomas. In 2005, a blocked punt in the end zone broke the game open in PSU’s favor. Playing smart special teams might be the deciding factor in this one.

C – In 2003, when John L. Smith led MSU to a bowl game, there was renewed optimism around the program, but this is different now with D’Antonio. Smith brought excitement and flash, but D’Antonio has brought quiet confidence and discipline, something MSU desperately needed. The MSU coaches have the tools to beat PSU, but can they use them effectively enough to get this one in the W column?

Interesting Stat: MSU defensive ppg in 6 wins: 20; ppg in 5 losses: 34.2.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 372-123-3
Last Game: Def. Temple, 31-0
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE Maurice Evans, DT Phil Taylor

Key Players, Offense: RB Rodney Kinlaw, WR Derrick Williams, OTs Dennis Landolt and Gerald Cadogan

What to look for: D – Stop the run, plain and simple. Turning MSU one-dimensional should almost guarantee a win. PSU needs a huge game from the front seven, and more importantly, the front four. Taylor has been emerging as a big-time player, and his ability to get into the backfield before the runner can get to the line will be a huge factor this week. When MSU decides to pass, PSU can’t give Hoyer any time. Evans and Josh Gaines have to play big and get in Hoyer’s face. Don’t give MSU time, or you’re dead. Connor has become the best LB in the country, hands down, and can nearly lock up his awards with a good showing and a win this week. Although the PSU secondary has been playing a bit lax lately, I don’t expect them to have much trouble, as this whole game is about stopping the run. If PSU gets a lead, the defense has to play like every down is their last. Don’t give MSU an inch until the final whistle.

O – Don’t turn the ball over, Anthony Morelli. A fumble on the one-yard line against Temple had the PSU fans grimacing, but everyone knew it wouldn’t matter in that game. Well, against MSU, that kind of mistake will matter. PSU has had some trouble pass protecting, but the run blocking has been more than solid. That’s a bit deceiving, as PSU does much better when using the pass to set up the run. Kinlaw had the game of his life against a pretty bad team, but can really cement his legacy this week. Another career day came in the form of Williams’ 100 yard receiving yards. I’m not sure why it took so long, but he’s finally gotten the ball more where he can make a difference. He has to keep up his stellar play and break a few big ones against MSU. But the biggest match up will be the PSU OTs against Saint-Dic. Neutralizing his pass rush could save the day for PSU.

ST – What’s happened to PSU’s return game? I know, it’s not too bad, but it was supposed to be one of the best in the nation. The only big play this season came in week two against Notre Dame. Otherwise, the return men haven’t made that much of a difference. Williams is hot, and he can gain huge momentum going into the bowl game if he can launch a big return against MSU. This could be a low-scoring game, and a spark from the return game could make the difference.

C – Don’t get tight. The PSU staff has to get the ball to the playmakers. If Williams doesn’t touch the ball at least 12 times, there’s a problem. The play calling was good enough last week to beat Temple, but can the staff get enough going to beat a Big Ten team coming off a good win over 7-4 Purdue?

Interesting Stat: PSU is 11-3 against MSU since joining the Big Ten in 1993, but all three losses were in Spartan Stadium. Most of the time, PSU got embarrassed, 49-14 in 1997, 35-28 in 1999 and 41-10 in 2003. Sorry, I know, but PSU has to be careful this week.

GAME PREDICTION: I’d really like to see this one turn into a slugfest, the kind PSU loves to play. If it comes down to defenses, PSU’s should be able to hold its own against an inconsistent MSU offense. Look for a boring game through he first half; with either team possibly holding a slim lead. It’s really hard to call this one, as I don’t know if PSU will take advantage of its talent on offense. If PSU plays loose and smart, they can secure another 9-win season. If PSU comes out flat, and allows MSU to get a few energizing plays, a trip to the Champs Sports Bowl is almost certain for 2007. I think MSU will keep it very close, if not lead into the second half, but PSU has just too much talent to lose. Kinlaw gets another big day. Williams scores a TD. MSU logs less than 350 yards of offense, most of which comes in the first half.

PSU 27, MSU 23

VEGAS:

PSU (-2) MSU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 31, MSU 35

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