The Only Game That Matters talks PSU vs. Wisconsin

All the Wisconsin bloggers are passed out drunk in a ditch somewhere, so The Only Game That Matters was kind enough to fill in for those belligerent Badger bloggers.

1. Penn State has been great against the run so far. From what you've seen, does Wisconsin have the ground game to keep their attack balanced this week? Can Wisconsin just run it up the gut the way they love to?

TOGTM: I think the first thing to do here is throw some numbers into the mix so that we have a baseline of what "great against the run" really means. Additionally, it will help us determine what Wisconsin wants to do with their rushing attack - what is "normal" for them. Penn State hasn't just been great against the run, they've been stellar. Through 6 games, they've allowed an average of only 80 yards/game on the ground - good enough for 11th nationally. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is averaging just above 200 yards/game on the ground - good enough for 20th nationally.

Your question - can Wisconsin just run it up the gut - is the question that will likely determine the outcome of this game. Whenever you get one of these "rock vs. hard place" matchups, you've identified one of the key swinging points. I think that Penn State is going to see a lot of PJ Hill; whether Hill moves the chains in 4 yard chunks, or is hit at the line of scrimmage will likely determine the amount of success that the Wisconsin offense has.

Another aspect to keep in mind is that Wisconsin can't go on those long, suffocating offensive drives if they're down by 21. Wisky's not built to play from behind - so if Penn State gets a lead early, it will largely nuetralize the rushing attack. Conversely, if Wisconsin gets a lead, they're perfectly capable of taking the entire 3rd
quarter away from you by going on a 9 minute 80 yard drive.

2. Where is Wisconsin right now, after losing two straight heart-breakers? Do the Badgers show up flat, or come out roaring?

TOGTM: They're saying all the right things, but the pressure is on given that an 0-3 start to the Big Ten is like, death. Just like any game, I expect the Badgers to come out as roaring as they can, given that they're Wisconsin and have goofy dairy-fed white guys running the show. The first drive, no matter who has the ball, is going to be very, very important. Wisconsin had better establish momentum early, or it will be very easy to fall into "Michigan Collapse" mode and fold against the physicality of Penn State.

3. Which back is more likely to gain 100 yards rushing this week: Evan
Royster, or PJ Hill? Why?

TOGTM: Royster, whithout a doubt. Penn State can do so many things offensively that will keep Wisconsin unbalanced. That's the main reason why I think Wisconsin's best defense is long, sustained drives on offense. They need to keep Penn State's offense off the field as much as possible. Hill has a good chance of getting his 100, it's just that they will come on 4 yard dives up the middle.

4. If Wisconsin pulls this one out, what could it do for their season?

TOGTM: Wisconsin is in dire straights. They need this win to keep their B10 season afloat. Win here, and the Rose Bowl is still in the picture, albeit fuzzy and out of focus. A loss puts a New Years Day bowl game in jeopardy. Wisconsin has proved that they can run with the big boys of the conference. They should have beat Michigan (not a big boy, to be sure), and took Ohio State to the brink. They've come up on the short end of the stick, but still have to be somewhat confident that they're a good football team. A loss to Penn State crushes that confidence, and will likely send them into a "Michigan State" tailspin that ends in Detroit playing the MAC runner up.

5. Final Score?

TOGTM: 27-14, Penn State. I think PSU jumps to an early lead, forces
Evridge to throw the ball more than he'd like to, and skates home with a win.