Thursday, October 9, 2008

Preview: No. 6 Penn State at No. 24 Wisconsin

Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 11. 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Mild, Cloudy.

Host: Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 4-2 (0-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost vs No. 14 Ohio State, 20-17
Injuries: LT Gabe Carimi (knee - doubtful), TE Garrett Graham (foot - probable), WR Maurice Moore (groin - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB P.J. Hill, QB Allan Evridge; (defense) LB DeAndre Levy, DL Matt Shaughnessy
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 3rd season at Wisconsin, 25-7 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 210.6 rush/185.4 pass/28.8 points per game
Defense - 123.6 rush/186.2 pass/17.6 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why Wisconsin will win -- Camp Randall Stadium will be rocking. It's one of the most raucous environments in sports, and that's just in the daytime. The Wisconsin fans will be well-oiled and ready to roll come game time, and the Badger defense could feed off it. On top of all that, if the Wisconsin band is allowed to play--they were suspended for "partying" too much--the fans should be even louder. Penn State has been horrible on the road since 1999, and hasn't won in Madison since 2002, by only a field goal. Wisconsin's running backs can move the pile. If either P.J. Hill or budding star John Clay get hot, expect Bielema to keep going to them. It will be up to the Wisconsin running game to keep the ball away from Penn State. The offensive line isn't quite as good as past Badger fronts, but they're still pretty damn good.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-0 (2-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at Purdue, 20-6
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable), WR Jordan Norwood (leg - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) LB Josh Hull, DT Jared Odrick
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 378-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 256.7 rush/243 pass/44.8 points per game
Defense - 80.2 rush/170.2 pass/11.7 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why PSU will win -- It hasn't rocked like this since 1994. Penn State's offense is just steamrolling every team they face. And the scary part about last week's 20-6 score at Purdue, is that the only thing to slow PSU was the field. Daryll Clark has been scary accurate, and the running game with Royster and Stephfon Green has been unstoppable. Couple that with three of the best wide receivers ever to play at PSU--oh yeah, and Jordan Norwood is expected to return this week--and Wisconsin fans are having nightmares all week. The mental factor will play strongly in this game. Wisconsin is lower than sludge right now, and Penn State has to take advantage of that. If Penn State gets the ball first and scores a touchdown, or the defense forces Wisconsin to punt on the first drive, it could be all over for the Badgers.

What will happen -- You'll see a much better showing out of Wisconsin than the pundits--myself included--have been saying. It will really depend on the crowd. Penn State fans know what a good fan base can do for a team in a big game, and the Lions are expecting the worst this week. Wisconsin will come out and hang tight with Penn State through the first half, but Clark and Royster will take over in the third quarter. If you want to beat Penn State, you have to match every score, and get a few cheap points. It won't happen this week. Penn State will give up a few scores to Wisconsin, but the Badgers won't be able to keep pace.

Prediction: No. 6 Penn State, 34 - No. 24 Wisconsin, 20

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