Preview: No. 3 Penn State at Iowa

Preview: No. 3 Penn State at Iowa
Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 8. 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cold, breezy, light snow/rain mix.

Host: Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 5-4 (2-3 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Illinois, 27-24
Injuries: TE Tony Moeaki (leg - doubtful), OL Seth Olsen (ankle - doubtful), OL Dace Richardson (knee - out), LB Troy Johnson (knee - doubtful)
Key Players: (offense) RB Shonn Greene, QB Ricky Stanzi; (defense) LB Pat Angerer, DT Mitch King
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 10th season at Iowa/overall, 61-49
Season Statistics:
Offense - 189 rush/190.1 pass/29.1 points per game
Defense - 100.7 rush/200.9 pass/13.2 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why Iowa will win -- The Hawkeyes are a team that can lose to anyone, but beat anyone at the same rate. Iowa hasn't had a running game like this one since 2002-2003, winning 21 games along the way. More impressively, Greene has done this without an offensive line like Penn State has. Stanzi gives Iowa a little more stability under center, but isn't a world-beater. I'm looking for plenty of high-percentage throws, and a whole lot of screens to Greene. If Iowa can even neutralize the Penn State defensive pressure, they have a shot at keeping the offense moving. On defense, Iowa has the best pair of defensive tackles in the conference, but don't have much of a pass rush to go with it. The outside has been a weakness for the Hawkeyes. I figure Ferentz & Co. will load up on the edges, leaving Mitch King and Matt Kroul to do their thing in the middle. Iowa has every chance to take Penn State out of its game, and it will start up front. Get a couple of shots on Daryll Clark, and that will effectively slow the Lions receivers. It worked for Ohio State, and I imagine Iowa has seen plenty of that game tape.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-0 (5-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at No. 9 Ohio St, 13-6
Injuries: QB Daryll Clark (concussion - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), RB Brent Carter (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 381-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 226.3 rush/233.4 pass/41.8 points per game
Defense - 99.1 rush/166.8 pass/11.1 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- On paper, Penn State and Iowa are about even on both sides of the ball. They're No. 1 and No. 3 in scoring offense, and No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring defense. But that's where it pretty much ends. Iowa hasn't been able to win close games. Penn State has only been in one real close game. I think it will come down to which team has the intangibles, and I'll give that battle to Penn State. The Lions have proven they can win on the road–in both ugly and dominant fashion, mind you–and can come back from trailing. I don't really think Clark's concussion will impact this game as much as we think. He's had two weeks off, and hasn't taken any hits. Penn State's offensive line has been great all year, and should be able to control Iowa enough to keep them off Clark. If the Hawkeyes blitz the way Ohio State did, that should open up the quick throws over the middle, and screen passes out of the backfield. The big boost if this should happen, is that Iowa doesn't have the secondary Ohio State does, and can't match up against the Penn State receivers the way the Buckeyes did. I'm looking for Penn State to come out throwing, similar to the Wisconsin game.

What will happen -- Iowa will be all jacked up to start the game, but the crowd will need some help to stay in it. I don't think it will last long. Penn State hasn't gotten a break all season, and has the mental capacity to prevent a post-bye gaffe in Iowa City. The rest will show up big time this week, as Penn State will move the ball methodically, up and down the field. Iowa will use Greene very effectively, but won't be able to get the big plays needed to stay with the Lions. Forcing Iowa into catch-up mode is Penn State's best option to win this game going away. I dont' expect the weather to become so much of a factor, but could play a part early on, when the players are still tight.

Prediction: No. 3 Penn State, 37 - Iowa, 10