Preview: No. 3 Penn State at Iowa

Preview: No. 3 Penn State at Iowa
Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 8. 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cold, breezy, light snow/rain mix.

Host: Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 5-4 (2-3 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Illinois, 27-24
Injuries: TE Tony Moeaki (leg - doubtful), OL Seth Olsen (ankle - doubtful), OL Dace Richardson (knee - out), LB Troy Johnson (knee - doubtful)
Key Players: (offense) RB Shonn Greene, QB Ricky Stanzi; (defense) LB Pat Angerer, DT Mitch King
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 10th season at Iowa/overall, 61-49
Season Statistics:
Offense - 189 rush/190.1 pass/29.1 points per game
Defense - 100.7 rush/200.9 pass/13.2 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why Iowa will win -- The Hawkeyes are a team that can lose to anyone, but beat anyone at the same rate. Iowa hasn't had a running game like this one since 2002-2003, winning 21 games along the way. More impressively, Greene has done this without an offensive line like Penn State has. Stanzi gives Iowa a little more stability under center, but isn't a world-beater. I'm looking for plenty of high-percentage throws, and a whole lot of screens to Greene. If Iowa can even neutralize the Penn State defensive pressure, they have a shot at keeping the offense moving. On defense, Iowa has the best pair of defensive tackles in the conference, but don't have much of a pass rush to go with it. The outside has been a weakness for the Hawkeyes. I figure Ferentz & Co. will load up on the edges, leaving Mitch King and Matt Kroul to do their thing in the middle. Iowa has every chance to take Penn State out of its game, and it will start up front. Get a couple of shots on Daryll Clark, and that will effectively slow the Lions receivers. It worked for Ohio State, and I imagine Iowa has seen plenty of that game tape.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 9-0 (5-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won at No. 9 Ohio St, 13-6
Injuries: QB Daryll Clark (concussion - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), RB Brent Carter (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 381-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 226.3 rush/233.4 pass/41.8 points per game
Defense - 99.1 rush/166.8 pass/11.1 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- On paper, Penn State and Iowa are about even on both sides of the ball. They're No. 1 and No. 3 in scoring offense, and No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring defense. But that's where it pretty much ends. Iowa hasn't been able to win close games. Penn State has only been in one real close game. I think it will come down to which team has the intangibles, and I'll give that battle to Penn State. The Lions have proven they can win on the road–in both ugly and dominant fashion, mind you–and can come back from trailing. I don't really think Clark's concussion will impact this game as much as we think. He's had two weeks off, and hasn't taken any hits. Penn State's offensive line has been great all year, and should be able to control Iowa enough to keep them off Clark. If the Hawkeyes blitz the way Ohio State did, that should open up the quick throws over the middle, and screen passes out of the backfield. The big boost if this should happen, is that Iowa doesn't have the secondary Ohio State does, and can't match up against the Penn State receivers the way the Buckeyes did. I'm looking for Penn State to come out throwing, similar to the Wisconsin game.

What will happen -- Iowa will be all jacked up to start the game, but the crowd will need some help to stay in it. I don't think it will last long. Penn State hasn't gotten a break all season, and has the mental capacity to prevent a post-bye gaffe in Iowa City. The rest will show up big time this week, as Penn State will move the ball methodically, up and down the field. Iowa will use Greene very effectively, but won't be able to get the big plays needed to stay with the Lions. Forcing Iowa into catch-up mode is Penn State's best option to win this game going away. I dont' expect the weather to become so much of a factor, but could play a part early on, when the players are still tight.

Prediction: No. 3 Penn State, 37 - Iowa, 10

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Blue & White Roundtable :: Iowa week

No. 3 Penn State travels to Iowa this week. I thought some questions were appropriate.

The usually unusual suspects:
There is No Name on My Jersey
Tangled Up in White and Blue
Y. F. Yurasko
Happy Hour Valley
Black Shoe Diaries
The Nittany Line
We Want the Lion
Zombie Nation
Nittany Whiteout

1. Do you agree with Joe Paterno, that teams shouldn't have to artificially inflate scores just to please the voters? We all know it's just how college football works, but how comfortable are you with that?

ZN:I just had this conversation at work. A friend of mine was looking at Texas Tech's schedule, and I said "they allowed 24 points to Eastern Washington." He made the point that teams take their foot off the pedal when winning big. I shot back, "ok, so let's look at the box score." Well, what'dya know, the score was only 28-17 at halftime. I think this whole problem could be solved if the voters (I still think coaches are the worst voters, as they just don't have real time to look at all the teams) would just look at the freaking box score. I don't think a team should have to score more points just to "look" more impressive. Penn State holding Ohio State to SIX points in the Horseshoe was much more impressive than winning 38-31 or something.

2. Iowa has been a very up-and-down team this season, and it's defense can actually play. What are some of the unit-to-unit match ups you're looking forward to seeing this week? Which team will win your chosen battle and why?

ZN:The Penn State wide receivers have to torch the Iowa defensive backfield. At Ohio State–a far better secondary than Iowa–PSU had trouble breaking coverage and getting open. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood have to, at least, put a scare into the Iowa secondary, even if it's just to open up the 3rd and 4th reads. I'm pretty confident PSU can do this, as Iowa is giving up 200 yards per game through the air. Penn State threw off Wisconsin by passing from the get-go, and should use the same style in Iowa City. And if Daryll Clark isn't 100%, then we all know Pat Devlin has the guts and talent to step in.

3. Backtrack a week. There were riots downtown following the Ohio State win. The State College Borough Council had plenty of discussion about "why" it happened, and what could be done to "prevent it" in the future. Of course, they got nowhere. Are wild, dangerous events like this just a part of life at a big-time football school? Or should (or, can) something be done about it?

ZN: Even as I'm out of school for several years now, I still defend the students' action... most of the time. This is one of those times. I used to hate when townies* would bitch and moan about how loud it was living a few blocks from Beaver Canyon, or how many drunk students would walk around their neighborhood at 2 a.m. Man, you chose to freaking live there. That's like moving to California, then complain constantly about the earthquakes, wild fires and mudslides. College kids (and most other rabid sports fanbases) act like this when it's a big win. It's just a part of sports life. The borough council had to pretend to address the issue, just to make the townies feel better. State College knows it would be nothing without the students. It's not run by complete idiots.

[*Townies: Usually, people think of townies as the "locals," but it's completely different. Locals are residents of the area that have no real connection, or interest in the college. "Townies" usually have some connection to the college, whether they're alumni who decided to settle there, or work for the college, or grew up as children of alumni. Things like that. I just wanted to clarify.]

Lightening Round

Royster has a big game (100+ yds)?

I'll go with 119 yards and a receiving touchdown.

Devlin sees decent playing time?

They'll get him in before the half, as long as PSU isn't stinking it up.

Chances (%) PSU holds Iowa below 10 pts?

40%. I'm thinking it will be around 10 points, but can't say if it'll be in the single digits or not.

***I'll have the Iowa preview up this afternoon.

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Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable :: Midseason Report

This week's BTBRT comes from Penn State's own NittanyWhiteOut.com.

1. We're approaching week 9 now, are you pleasantly surprised or already waiting for basketball season?

ZN: I'm really freaking excited. I wouldn't say surprised, necessarily. I figured Penn State would be undefeated at this point. But did I expect them to stomp every opponent the way they have? NO. Penn State is really the best overall team in the Big Ten. Can that change this week at Ohio State? Absolutely. I have a gut feeling that Ohio State will pull out a win and take the conference crown. I hope otherwise, though.

2. Describe one specific play from this season you would alter for a different outcome if you had the chance to.

ZN: When your team is undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the nation, there's not much I would change. This would be a fantastic question after Penn State goes to Columbus. I'm sure there will be a play in that game we would like to take back.

3. How could it (#2) possibly impact the way your season is going?

ZN: Again, this is more suited for any other team in the Big Ten right now. Sorry to be uninteresting, but it's true.

4. Big Ten player you just can't stand, why?

ZN: Once Mike Hart left, along with Chad Henne, there weren't too many players left to hate. The Big Ten has a real good crop of players this season–classy, good players. I haven't seen showboating or outright trash talk beyond the norm. If I were to go by on-field performances, I'd say Shonn Greene, just because he's taking the spotlight away from Evan Royster, who IS a much better overall running back.

5. Boo'ing your own team (we've seen quite a lot of this across the Big Ten this season), your feelings on this.

ZN: Penn State hasn't had a lot of that this season, but when it does happen, I can't stand it. I remember when Penn State went 7-16 from 2003-04. There was a lot of booing, mainly at Zack Mills and his wide receivers. When fans would complain about them, and start booing (even in the band we had those kinds of people), I would get really heated. Booing only compounds the problems on the field, and most of the time, booing fans don't see the real reasons their teams aren't doing well. If your quarterback is doing poorly, don't boo. It sure as hell won't make him play better, and it won't influence the coaching staff to replace him. Booing in counter-productive, and looks really, really bad when you're on live TV.

Bonus Round

1. Number of beers or alcoholic drinks consumed by week 8 (or a good estimate)

ZN: If I could remember, I didn't drink enough.

2. Most annoying commercial seen this season

ZN: ROTEL!!! Oh my God, I hate that commercial.

3. Your prediction for the next coaching change in the Big Ten (Joe Tiller exempt)

ZN: I don't see any coaches getting fired before Joe Paterno hands over the reigns. Nor do I see any retiring.

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Aaaaand, there goes my Pick'em Standing

In the last 15 minutes or so, Iowa scored on a really amazing Shonn Greene touchdown run for a 14-0 lead over Wisconsin, Northwestern scored three times to go up 17-6 over Purdue, and my No. 7 standing in the Big Ten Bloggers Pick'em went right out the window.

I will admit though, that Greene run was fantastic. He broke about eight tackles–if you can even call them that–on his way to making the play of the game. Prior to that run, this was a close game that Wisconsin had a real shot at winning. Not anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if this one got out of hand for the Badgers, similar to last week.

Iowa is becoming a real, living, breathing team before our eyes. Do I think Penn State will lose in Iowa City? No, not really. But I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa lands themselves a nice Outback Bowl bid, or some other January game. But this game is not over, and I shouldn't get ahead of myself.

I just needed something to write about while counting down the seconds to the Penn State game.

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