Preview: No. 8 Penn State vs No. 15 Michigan State

Kickoff: Sat., Nov. 22. 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Weather Forecast: Very Cold, Mostly Cloudy w/Snow Flurries.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 10-1 (6-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Indiana, 34-7
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S
Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz
(knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Daryll Clark, RB Evan Royster;(defense) DT
Jared Odrick, LB Navorro Bowman
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 382-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 218.3 rush/224.4 pass/39.4 points per game
Defense - 101.5 rush/157.2 pass/11.9 points per game
TO Margin - (+7)

Why PSU will win -- Michigan State has been good, but not very impressive this season. The Spartans were blown out at home by Ohio State (9-2), 45-7, and nearly lost to Wisconsin (6-5) in East Lansing. Probably the best win so far was the 37-20 win over Northwestern (8-3) in Evanston. They were able to squeak by Iowa (7-4) by 3 at home, but that was before the Hawkeyes' recent revival. Penn State has been great this season in big games–the Iowa games wasn't viewed as a big game by PSU, whether they tell you that or not, thus the letdown–having pummeled Wisconsin 48-7 in Madison, and beating Ohio State in the Horseshoe. Penn State still leads the conference in offensive ppg and defensive ppg, while Michigan State has scored only 6.4 ppg more than opponents (26.9-19.5). I very much like the matchup between the Penn State run game (see team stats) versus the Michigan State run defense. And on the flip-side, I also like Penn State holding down the Michigan State run game. Even though Javon Ringer leads the world in rushing attempts and was the best in yardage, he's been the entire MSU rushing attack, which still ranks ninth in the Big Ten. In freezing weather, the better defense usually wins. As far as playing in Beaver Stadium, this should be the loudest crowd MSU has faced all season long, and should make the difference for Penn State's chances.

Visitor: Michigan State Spartans
Record: 9-2 (6-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Purdue (Nov. 8), 21-7
Injuries: DB Chris Rucker (leg - questionable), WR Mark Dell (N/A -
questionable), OL Arthur Ray (leg - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Javon Ringer, QB Brian Hoyer; (defense) LB
Greg Jones, S Otis Wiley
Head Coach: Mark D'Antonio, 2nd season at MSU, 16-8; 5th overall, 34-25
Season Statistics:
Offense - 147.8 rush/207.4 pass/26.9 points per game
Defense - 148.5 rush/191.4 pass/19.5 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why MSU will win -- This is the best Spartans team fielded since Nick Saban was head coach. Ringer leads the conference in all-purpose yardage, and is arguably more difficult to tackle than Mike Hart was at Michigan. Although Michigan State has allowed opponents more trips into the red zone than PSU, the Spartans have held teams to a conference-best 74.3 percent conversion rate. In what could turn into a close, every-point-matters game, forcing a turnover in the red zone will be a top priority for MSU. Penn State hasn't been playing well the last few outings, including the win at Ohio State. It took an incredibly clean game (0 penalties, 0 turnovers) by PSU to beat the Buckeyes, and you can almost count on a few mistakes this week. Michigan State is catching Penn State at the perfect time, as PSU is still getting over the Iowa letdown, and didn't play up to speed against a horrible Indiana (3-8) team. The Spartans could really throw a wrench into the Penn State attack by getting in Daryll Clark's head. And Otis Wiley is the man to do it, as he is second in the Big Ten in interceptions (4), and one pick-six. Michigan State wants to give its offense short fields, and to keep the Penn State crowd out of this game. That's where one or two turnovers could swing it for the Spartans.

What will happen -- The early spread is about two touchdowns, PSU (-14) over MSU. When Vegas lays a line that wide, they're usually telling us it will be a blowout. I don't think so. There is the very real chance that the Penn State team we saw in September and October show up and jump Michigan State, but I just don't see it happening. These aren't the Spartans of John L. Smith. These guys are like soldiers who shut up and do their job, and do it well. Penn State will have to play on its 'A' game, and should be able to beat Michigan State. There's no way the Nittany Lions lose at home in what could be Joe Paterno's final great season at Penn State.*

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 31 - No. 15 Michigan State 20

*No, I don't mean that to sound like Joe will retire or leave. I mean that this could be the last time he could win 11 games. We don't know what will happen next year, so this year's team has to play like it's the last hurrah.